Obama's 2012 reelection strategy is unraveling as foreign policy failures mount

[moderate libertarian]

Obama's masters may have thought that an election year attack on Iran could reinvigorate Israeli/Jewish lobbies support & funding for him but that plon seems to be unraveling. US has just cancelled massive joint military exercise with Israel for fear of further escalation of tensions with Iran. This is happening at a critical juncture in light of recent developments:

- Leaking of marines video showing them urinating on dead Afghan's bodies could mean Afghan war front could remain hot or get hotter in 2012 for US troops
- Western intel officials publicly blaming Israeli agencies for assassination of Iranian scientist by car bomb
- Hezbollah linked terror threats against Israeli targets in Bangkok. Hezbollah now has friendly allies in Iraq

An attack on Iran could lead to very probable three active war fronts for US in Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq losing any gains of $3 trillion efforts of last 10 years and massive retaliations against Israel/US economy. Almost certainly an election losing scenario for neocons plant Obama.

I predict, there will be no US attack on Iran anytime soon, almost certainly not in 2012. If by election time, US tax payers are still funding near 100K US troops fighting an endless insurgency in Afghanistan and economy is in same shapy, Obama reelection looks in serious trouble.


This was posted in FP but is more about domestic politics.

[randomname]

sounds about right, with an attack on Iran oil prices would also go up, which would be poison to the economy as well

[moderate libertarian]

Latest reports that Obama's commanders are meeting/talking with terrorists presumably for 2012 election season politics scheduling of Afghan war could also hurt him among pro war Tea Party constituencies even though Palin, Newt, Romney so far have decided to stay mum on this.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/international/us_in_talks_with_insurgents_led_by_man_it_branded_ a_terrorist_1_2073365

Obama's masters Afghan war policy has been a colossal failure. It depended on war escalation and then leaving Afghanistan security in the hands of US trained Afghan forces ahead of 2012 elections. There is no "friendly" credible Afghan force in sight that we can trust after a decades training as number of attacks by these very forces on US/NATO troops have risen sharply since Obama's war escalation:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?353931-Trust-vanishing-26-attacks-by-Afghan-soldiers-have-killed-at-least-62-Western-troops&p=4073162&viewfull=1#post4073162

[moderate libertarian]

If France stuck to its decision to pull troops of Afganistan early as appears likely, those 4-5 marines in the urination video and a single Afghan soldier could have helped change the course of Afghan war:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/world/french-troops-killed-over-us-marine-abuse-video/story-e6frf7lf-1226251098377




France's Afghanistan decision raises worries

Troops' accelerated departure after the killings of four French soldiers marks a breaking of Western ranks. It could also serve as a message to insurgents that such attacks are an effective way to push U.S. allies out of the fight

January 29, 2012
The announcement by French President Nicolas Sarkozy that his troops would sharply accelerate their departure from Afghanistan cast a harsh light on potential cracks in the U.S.-led military coalition in the country.


http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-afghanistan-france-20120129,0,3161860.story


On Iran front, chances of US starting war with Iran were very slim already, those chances are further diminished after publisher Andrew Adler's floating Obama assassination threat over Iran. Israel may still go to war with Iran but a US war with Iran is pretty much dead. With that probably a good part of pro war/Israel lobby's funding for Obama.