Reuters/Ipsos SC Poll: Ron Paul tied for second at 16% [QUESTIONABLE SAMPLE]

[pauliticalfan]

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=253637

Romney: 37%
Paul: 16%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich 12%


I don't know what to think of this one. I have a hard time believing Romney is that high and Gingrich that low, but I also believe we are in the middle of a Ron Paul surge and things could shift.

[TwoJ]

Weird

[zerosdontcount]

Awesome. SURGE

[Trigonx]

Weird

i agree.

[jax]

Looks wayyyyyy off

[Agorism]

and romney has monster lead lol.

I guess all that matters is defeating the two clowns soundly first.

[Karsten]

Looks like Romney is also surging unfortunately. Starting to look like we might pull off New Hampshire style results.

[Karsten]

If we look at this poll in a bubble it would seem that Gingrich is falling and his support is going to Romney.

[bluesc]

Looks like NH all over again. I highly doubt Newt has crashed that much.

[Karsten]

Getting 2nd in a state where we were polling next to last place and low single digits all 2011 would feel very good.

[Epic]

But Fox News told me yesterday that Newt was massively surging!?

[Karsten]

I highly doubt Newt has crashed that much.
Why not? Very poor results for Gingrich in IA and NH, and very good results for Romney. This is exactly the kind of bump you would expect.

[Todd]

As others have said...no reason not to use polls in our favor to our advantage.

[Epic]

But seriously, it's about time for the "Serial Hypocrisy"-type ad on Romney. If Romney wins SC by 12+, it's about over.

[bluesc]

Why not? Very poor results for Gingrich in IA and NH, and very good results for Romney. This is exactly the kind of bump you would expect.

Because I trust PPP more.

[AlexAmore]

Attacking Romney's business backfired. wtg n00t.

[pauliticalfan]

I also don't have the dates for this poll, which is tremendously important. Please let us know if you find them.

[lucent]

This is certainly going to be interesting.

[Topman911]

I know why Newt went down mitt romeny's super PAC just spent over 7 million against new Gingrich in 10 days, super PAC called Restore Our Future..

[SchleckBros]

Yesterday Gingrich was at 24% and now he is at 12%... yeah right. This poll is complete BS.

[Rincewind]

From the 5 polls I've seen the last couple days:
Romney: 28-37%
Gingrich: 12-25%
Paul: 9-20%
Santorum: 7-16%

I'm not sure how to explain those kinds of spreads.

[ghengis86]

i'll take it

[zerosdontcount]

This poll definitely seems to be an outlier, except for Paul's numbers.

[Karsten]

Because I trust PPP more.
PPP had us leading in Iowa in their final poll, when everyone else did not. Every poll is flawed, and no poll is 100% on the money. A poll may say it can say with 95% confidence that the numbers are correct within a 4% margin of error. Well that means that 5% of the time, the numbers are wrong even more than the margin of error (this might have happened in that infamous Santorum CNN poll). All polls are fallible unless God himself is conducting them.

[Karsten]

From the 5 polls I've seen the last couple days:
Romney: 28-37%
Gingrich: 12-25%
Paul: 9-20%
Santorum: 7-16%

I'm not sure how to explain those kinds of spreads.
The 9% and 20% were both from ARG, i think, and we're clearly now at the high end of that.

[Karsten]

Yesterday Gingrich was at 24% and now he is at 12%... yeah right. This poll is complete BS.
Remember Iowa. It's very possible for a candidate to surge or crash quickly.
And, when someone is rapidly rising or falling, it's hard to capture an accurate at the moment picture, and numbers can be all over the place. We saw that in all the many surges and crashes in Iowa this past year. I'm inclined to think (hope) Gingrich is really crashing. As IA and NH has shown, I think, a distant but solid 2nd is much better than a close 3rd.

[centure7]

Its still downright shocking to see polls where we go from 4th to 2nd in a mere few days.

But then again look what happened with Cain, Perry, and Gingrich. They all made their 1st place status in about two weeks time. As it so happens there is just under two weeks from New Hampshire to South Carolina. (though its not completely coincidental, the timing was designed to allow for momentum to pass from one state to another).

It actually looks like Paul has some shot at 2nd place. The campaigns apparent strategy to isolate them selves with Romney before going for the kill is going perfectly.

I doubt the poll is entirely right but I hope it is.

[Greg Buchanan]

I know why Newt went down mitt romeny's super PAC just spent over 7 million against new Gingrich in 10 days, super PAC called Restore Our Future..
That about sums it up, Mitt's super PAC is hitting Santorum hard as well.

[tremendoustie]

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=253637

Romney: 37%
Paul: 16%
Santorum: 16%
Gingrich 12%


I don't know what to think of this one. I have a hard time believing Romney is that high and Gingrich that low, but I also believe we are in the middle of a Ron Paul surge and things could shift.

Wow. Yeah, these polls just don't line up. One has Gingrich within 4 of Romney, and this one has him 25% out.

Someone's screwing up big time. Perhaps both are.

Glad to see RP in the 2 spot, however.

[jkob]

Looks like New Hampshire, ugh. Hard to believe Romney is that high.

[Karsten]

Looks like New Hampshire, ugh. Hard to believe Romney is that high.
A distant 2nd is perceived as better than a close 3rd. I'll take it, if we push to 2nd and Romney is on top.
Of course, I'd rather have first, but 2nd to Romney is fine. We need to be the anti-Romney candidate.

[SchleckBros]

1. conducted online
2. registered voters rather than likely voters

This poll is crap.

[Karsten]

1. conducted online
2. registered voters rather than likely voters

This poll is crap.
Didn't know that. Perhaps it is, then.

[pauliticalfan]

Yeah, I'm getting word from Nate Silver that it was an online poll of registered, not likely, voters. He seems to be dismissing it. So make of this poll what you will.

[VictorB]

I can't see Romney cracking the high 20s in SC, let alone 30%. If we can get 24-25% then we win SC, IMO.

[Epic]

Need a source for the conducted online notion.

Reuters/Ipsos are generally telephone calls, and included in RCP average.

[SchleckBros]

Need a source for the conducted online notion.

Reuters/Ipsos are generally telephone calls, and included in RCP average.

Nate Silver from the NYT tweeted it.

[JohnGalt23g]

Yeah. This poll smells like an outlier to me.

[tremendoustie]

1. conducted online
2. registered voters rather than likely voters

This poll is crap.

Conducted online = crap (at least as far as representing real voter percentages goes).

[Liberty74]

If we look at this poll in a bubble it would seem that Gingrich is falling and his support is going to Romney.

Gingrich is probably taking a beating from Rush and the Party for going after Romney on capitalism whether legit or not.

[pauliticalfan]

This being said, I'm kind of pissed at Nate. He seems to be included that bullshit "private" poll that was on Politico in his calculations that had Ron at 10%. Even this poll seems more reliable than that one.

[danielboon]

WASHINGTON - Republican US presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over all his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race and former front-runner Newt Gingrich has fallen dramatically, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Romney, who sealed his leading status after winning the Republican contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, could extinguish his rivals' hopes of becoming their party's nominee with a victory in South Carolina.

The survey found 37 percent of the southern state's voters support Romney. Congressman Ron Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second place with 16 percent support.http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=253637:D

[Sola_Fide]

Guys, if we pulled off a second place finish...even if we are more than 10 points behind Romney...that would be a profound statement!

[danielboon]

:cool:yes it would

[nano1895]

Second would reinforce our anti-Romney position

[OrbitzXT]

Isn't this bad news? I actually preferred the poll where he was 29, Gingrich 25 and Paul at 20. It seems Newt's attacks just give Romney more support than it takes away.

[Karsten]

Isn't this bad news? I actually preferred the poll where he was 29, Gingrich 25 and Paul at 20. It seems Newt's attacks just give Romney more support than it takes away.
I did too.

[OrbitzXT]

I was hoping we'd get Tom Davis' endorsement tomorrow, combined with our ads and the debate we could actually win. But if Newt implodes and hands votes to Romney then it's just gonna be another 2nd..maybe 3rd place finish.

[lucent]

Isn't this bad news? I actually preferred the poll where he was 29, Gingrich 25 and Paul at 20. It seems Newt's attacks just give Romney more support than it takes away.

Your preferred poll was ARG which is notoriously inaccurate.

[specsaregood]

Your preferred poll was ARG which is notoriously inaccurate.
and the one referenced here is an online poll. lol

[OrbitzXT]

and the one referenced here is an online poll. lol

Yeah I just read that, I'm going to ignore this one. It's not so much Romney winning that annoys me, I don't want Frothy or Perry to have even a decent showing..so they're more likely to finally get out.

[Liberty74]

So the pumping of Romney with a fake poll as begun?

Online poll of registered voters....

[bobburn]

This is a Reuters/Ipsos poll, so the "online poll" is likely sent out to registered voters who have signed up to be polled via email by this group. I participate in several polls from firms that do this (Zogby for instance).

[bobbyw24]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race, trouncing Newt Gingrich and gaining momentum in his march toward the party's nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, could all but quash his rivals' presidential aspirations with a victory in South Carolina on January 21 after winning the first state-by-state nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Voters in South Carolina - who have favored Republicans in nine of the last 10 presidential elections - appear to have shrugged off attacks on Romney by rivals who accuse him of killing jobs as a private equity executive for Bain Capital in the 1990s.

The poll showed 37 percent of South Carolina Republican voters back Romney. Congressman Ron Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second place with 16 percent support.

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-opens-21-point-lead-south-carolina-reuters-230825329.html

[Tyler_Durden]

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online from January 10-13 with a sample of 995 South Carolina registered voters. It included 398 Republicans and 380 Democrats.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys but this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5 percentage points for Republicans and 3.4 percentage points for all voters.

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-opens-21-point-lead-south-carolina-reuters-230825329.html

[JJ2]

ROMNEY SURGE!

Disgusting.

Another fake surge that could turn into a real surge, based on a fake poll.

[OrbitzXT]

Second pretty much seals the deal for Romney, Im afraid. :(

No it doesn't, but other candidates need to start getting out. I'm hoping at the very least Perry gets out after SC. And I hope Santorum does poorly so he doesn't get any false hope and stay in. Newt will stay in till Florida I think, even with his implosion.

[daviddee]

...

[pauliticalfan]

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-opens-21-point-lead-south-carolina-reuters-230825329.html

Wait, so January 10th was one of the days? I'm assuming that would have taken place before the New Hampshire results were known. We could be even higher, no?

[Carole]

They'll be pushing Santorum hard this week to overtake Dr. Paul.

[RickyJ]

Attacking Romney's business backfired. wtg n00t.

I don't think so. This poll was done before that commercial aired. Romney will be toast soon, count on it.

[bobburn]

This poll is probably not that accurate--they used a near 50/50 breakdown of Republicans and Democrats.

[Kevin Smyth]

With probably 50% Undecideds

[sailingaway]

I agree with weird. The polls are just odd this cycle.

[trey4sports]

I don't believe it.

[freneticentropy]

We need to thin the herd in S.C.

We need "Frothy" out and Gingrich disgraced (out).

Huntsman and Perry can stay in for as long as they want... they are so low in the polls it does not matter.

We need Huntsman and Perry out. They're low in the polls, but I their voters are more likely to move to Paul than Gingrich voters. Fortunately, I think they'll both drop after SC. We need Paul to come in second, making him the only viable alternative to Romney. I think best case scenario is that Santorum comes in 4th and drops out along with Perry and Huntsman, making it a three man race with Gingrich very weak. We can count on Gingrich to go scorched earth on Romney. Then the Paul campaign can play it cool and just keep building support, run a positive campaign, and let Romney/Gingrich kill each other until Gingrich drops out. Then we go full throttle on a battered Romney.

[PauliticsPolitics]

Need a source for the conducted online notion.

Reuters/Ipsos are generally telephone calls, and included in RCP average.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/14/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSTRE80D0U420120114

(http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/14/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSTRE80D0U420120114)
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online from January 10-13 with a sample of 995 South Carolina registered voters. It included 398 Republicans and 380 Democrats.

[limequat]

If it hasn't been said enough: Bullshit poll.

I like how the media is using this to push the Romney-running-away-with-it meme.

[The_Ruffneck]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/sc-republicans-boo-newt-gingrich-over-romney-attacks/
From drudge
I think the poll is legit considering this.

[newbitech]

Actually, I have been meaning to put together a post that will put this baby to rest. I'll summarize.

The S.C. electorate is very confused right now, and rightfully so. Take a look at how S.C. broke in 2008. Mitt Romney captured 4th with 15% behind McCain, Huckabee, and Fred Thompson.

In other words, in 2008, S.C. voted against Romney the 2012 frontrunner 85%.

Huckabee. He is not in the race. He was/is a much more solid "religion vote" than Santorum.

Fred Thompson beat Romney in S.C. in 2008. It was close, they both hit 15.x% but Thompson had more votes.

So there are A LOT of disinfranchised S.C. voters out there.

This is an extremely important test for not only Ron Paul, but for the voters of South Carolina. That record of picking the eventual nominee is at odds with the voters principles there.

There is a very real possibility that S.C. COULD send the message that principles are more important than tradition or politics. S.C. could rip the veil of inevitibility off of Romney.

That is the internal battle that each voter in S.C. is facing right now. THat is why the polls are so wild.

I hope that the folks in the Ron Paul campaign, and especially the grassroots in S.C. are aware of what I just said, and in much greater detail.

[normal_rc]

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-opens-21-point-lead-south-carolina-reuters-230825329.html

Mitt Romney: 37%
Ron Paul: 16%
Rick Santorum: 16%
Newt Gingrich: 14%

Don't be concerned about Mitt Romney's lead. The main thing is that we want Santorum/Newt/Perry to drop out, and make this a 2-man race between Mitt Romney & Ron Paul.

Once it's a 2-man race between Mitt Romney & Ron Paul, there will be a huge block of evangelical christians looking for a candidate to support. And they won't be supporting the pro-abortion mormon.

[bcreps85]

Another source I was reading these same numbers on said that this was taken from a sample of like 1,000 people, of which roughly 400 were Republicans. If that's true, then this could just be Democrats voting for the one that leans furthest to the left so they have a choice of Obama or Obama...

Here it is..."The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online from January 10-13 with a sample of 995 South Carolina registered voters. It included 398 Republicans and 380 Democrats."

I wouldn't give these numbers too much consideration, Democrats can't vote in SC...

[Paul or not at all]

Ill be happy if Paul and Romney are in the top 2, even happier if Paul wins!!!!

[clint4liberty]

If we can get Congressman Paul in 15% plus in South Carolina as a victory. This is once again the first closed primary state in the Republican race. If Congressman Ron Paul reaches to the 20% range is a delegate battle. Former Speak of the US House Newt Gingrich support in South Carolina is weak and can be
siphoned off. Does the new endorsement for Rick Santorum matter to evangelicals/social conservatives in the SC or FL primary? If Ron Paul can beat Rick
Santorum in South Carolina in closed primary system on the issues I will be happy. If Newt Gingrich support is soft and US Senator Rick Santorum is seen as a weak candidate on being a conservative as well. The real question: Is Mitt Romney going to be able to fool South Carolina primary votes or will Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, or Ron Paul be able to overcome? If Rick Perry would drop out the 3/4 of the GOP voters would have one less choice to sift.

[sailingaway]

Another source I was reading these same numbers on said that this was taken from a sample of like 1,000 people, of which roughly 400 were Republicans. If that's true, then this could just be Democrats voting for the one that leans furthest to the left so they have a choice of Obama or Obama...

Here it is..."The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online from January 10-13 with a sample of 995 South Carolina registered voters. It included 398 Republicans and 380 Democrats."

I wouldn't give these numbers too much consideration, Democrats can't vote in SC...

It is an open primary. I doubt the numbers will be that even in a GOP primary, though.

[Gravik]

Seriously? South Carolinan's are really going to vote for that guy???

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-opens-21-point-lead-south-carolina-reuters-230825329.html

[Jester6193]

They still have a week to change their minds...let's just hope they do.

[Oddone]

No it's an Online poll. Theres another thread on this.

[TheeJoeGlass]

Newt is done. He needs to drop out before S.C. to avoid embarrassment.

[Peace&Freedom]

No it's an Online poll. Theres another thread on this.

Wow, that changes things. Of course, if it had been very favorable to Paul, it would have immediately been pointed out that the poll was online and not scientific.