So If Santorum Drops Out Can we Get His Delegates from Iowa?

[ProBlue33]

So I just finished watching the Ben Swan video on delegates from Iowa.

Since they are unconfirmed soft delegates and most likely anti-Romney people, if Santorum is gone by the time they go to state convention to vote for the hard delegates, there is a good chance we will pick up the majority of those, correct?

If so it looks like Ron Paul actually won Iowa, and this is being hidden from people.

[harikaried]

There are no delegates assigned. They only just completed the precinct delegate selection on 1/3. If Santorum drops out, those Santorum leaning delegates are likely to just not show up at the county caucus.

[ProBlue33]

So then if they don't show then what ?
Who fills that gap, other supporters or no one?

[Blue_Merle]

The short answer is YES, we get his delegates.

[harikaried]

So then if they don't show then what ?
Who fills that gap, other supporters or no one?The way the precinct caucus works is people show up and cast their vote for who should be their delegates to represent them going forwards. For the 2 precincts I was at, there were fewer people than delegate slots, so everyone just casted an aye to everyone there.

I would assume the same thing happens at the county level. Precinct delegates show up and cast a vote for who should move on to the congressional district caucus. Most likely there will be more precinct delegates than slots for CD delegates, so they will nominate/second then cast votes. The people who get the most votes will move on as CD delegates. Those Santorum precinct delegates not moving on to the county level just give up their vote or they can cast a vote for themselves or other delegates attending.

It seems like for Iowa, delegates don't openly declare who they support, so it's up to good organization to make sure Ron Paul delegates only vote for other Ron Paul delegates.

[sailingaway]

We will certainly try if we have enough people in the process to manage it. There was an attempt to do that, but we won't know until much later how well that is working out.

[acptulsa]

What Santorum delegates? Santorum 'supporters' were nowhere near enthusiastic enough, for the most part, to hang around after the caucus and sign up to be delegates, or so I was led to believe. I don't get the impression he has more than a handful of Iowa delegates. Most of the delegates who signed up after the caucuses seem to be, in a word, us.

[doctorfunk]

I'm from Iowa and voted at the local caucus for delegates to go on to the next level. One of the best things Ron Paul has going for him is that his supporters are very motivated and active. Romney won the most votes our district, but only 2/9 local delegates said they support him. Santorum was third and received 2/9. Ron Paul was second in votes but received 5/9 local delegates. If this pattern is repeated in other districts, it could mean that he can win a majority of the delegates without winning the vote.

[ProBlue33]

So then really the delegates will be split between Romney and Paul then, that is the realistic outcome

[Eric21ND]

Iowa supporters stayed fired up for your state convention!

[RileyE104]

I'm sure we would because I doubt they'd go for Romney.

[harikaried]

So then really the delegates will be split between Romney and Paul then, that is the realistic outcomeNot unless the Ron Paul delegates are super organized in all the counties.

Taking that example of 5 of 9 delegates in a given precinct moving on to the county level with each precinct with that same ratio across precincts.

Let's say there's 50 delegates for Ron Paul out of 90 attending and they need to pick 10 delegates. All 50 can vote for the same 10 delegates for Ron Paul and give 0 votes to the other delegates. All 10 delegates move on supporting Ron Paul.

[ProBlue33]

So you mean that even though somebody wins Iowa they could in theory get 0 delegates?
Seems very unlikely if they are still in the race.

[Suzu]

So you mean that even though somebody wins Iowa they could in theory get 0 delegates?
Seems very unlikely if they are still in the race.
That's precisely what happened in many Missouri counties last time, and the MOGOP went to great lengths to stop us from having a majority at the state convention. In my county, all of the delegates and alternates were RP people, even though he only got a little over 12% of the primary vote in the county.