SC Insider Advantage: Mitt 23, Newt 21, Santorum 14, Ron 13

[NC5Paul]

Just saw this on RCP and don't see it on the first few pages; apologies if it's already been posted.

Anyway, we're making moves, folks:

Romney: 23
Gingrigh: 21
Santorum: 14
Paul: 13
Huntsman: 7 (SSSSSUUUURRRRRGGGGEEEE!!!!!)
Perry: 5 (adios, cowboy)

EDIT: 17% undecided, which IMO is great for us given SC voters' overwhelmingly positive response to the NH speech

726 registered voters, unsure of other details. Here's a write-up: http://chronicle.augusta.com/news/aiken/2012-01-11/sc-poll-mitt-romney-has-small-lead-over-newt-gingrich.

[Epic]

I like the fact that Huntsman is at 7. It helps drag Romney down to 23.

Paul at 13 is highest of the cycle in SC. Still needs to be higher though.

[bluesc]

I'll take it.

[pauliticalfan]

When was it conducted???? Before New Hampshire????

[Aratus]

we are within 10% of mitt and about to streak past rick S

newt is our most difficult obstacle in terms of getting 2nd

we may end up just underneath mitt and just above newt

[Epic]

Conducted after NH.

RP at just 7% among republicans. We seriously need some pro-military veteran stuff going on.

[Agorism]

dates taken? likely voters?

[SamuraisWisdom]

Still have time to improve that situation, especially with two (or three?) debates before the election.

[torchbearer]

rp surging.

[Epic]

RP only 19% of youth vote, but it was 48% in Iowa and 47% in NH. Look for that to be 40% on primary day. RP's numbers are going north of 13%.

[nowwearefree]

i would take a strong third now
top 3 is not bad at all
combine it with NH, and Iowa's result, its really good i think

[pauliticalfan]

We're up 6 points from December and are within 10 points of first, the closest I believe we've ever been. It's not gonna be easy, but we can make some serious stuff happen down there. Especially with Romney taking all the heat, you've gotta believe some of his supporters have us as a second choice.

[NC5Paul]

Trying to find poll details, but I'm on a phone now and it's a little tough. Don't like how poorly we're doing among Republicans but I'm encouraged by slight bump we've gotten.

[Agorism]

How much did we outperform polling in NH?

+5?

[Epic]

Romney down, Newt down, Santorum down, but...

Paul Surges in South Carolina, Only Down 10 to Romney

[Agorism]

Paul made a small ad buy in S.C. from what I saw on CNN last night.

I hope he is going to attack Gingrich and Santorum.

[Epic]

Romney beats RP by 30 among seniors, and only is ahead of RP by 10.

[blazeKing]

SURGING!!! Only down 10, only down 8 from second place? We can make this happen!!

[SamuraisWisdom]

Paul made a small ad buy in S.C. from what I saw on CNN last night.

I hope he is going to attack Gingrich and Santorum.

Wasn't that small. I read that it was around $1million, which is a pretty big buy in SC. Plus there are some SuperPACs putting out ads for Ron as well. AND we have the debates. SC is up for grabs guys, and we can make it happen.

[jersdream]

Wasn't that small. I read that it was around $1million, which is a pretty big buy in SC. Plus there are some SuperPACs putting out ads for Ron as well. AND we have the debates. SC is up for grabs guys, and we can make it happen.

CNN said it was under 100k, I believe. There isn't the Super Pac money the others have.

[NIU Students for Liberty]

I understand the campaign's focus on eliminating the other candidates in order to make it a "Romney vs Paul" race, but at what point do they start adding Romney to the mix in terms of attack ads? Romney pulling off a hat trick (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina) may just give him all the momentum he needs to coast through the rest of the election, making Paul insignificant.

If I'm an undecided Republican voter by the time South Carolina finishes (assuming Romney wins), why would I be inclined to support Paul when Romney (coupled with the media) is showing through results that he is the most formidable candidate? Although Paul certainly has his hurdles in South Carolina, I would assume that Romney would be a more difficult pill to swallow for southern voters but yet he's polling first. If Romney can take South Carolina, how can he be stopped elsewhere?

[DavidScott]

The three liberals above Paul have nowhere to go but down in a state like SC.

[wide awake]

How much did we outperform polling in NH?

+5?

Just by taking a quick glance the RCP average for NH, we were averaging around 19% at about two weeks out so that seems to be about +4 jump from where we were at this time in NH (again, it was just quick glance and rough estimate). If we can do that in SC, that would position us to at least take third. But SC is a different animal so who knows... I am no poll expert.

[SamuraisWisdom]

CNN said it was under 100k, I believe. There isn't the Super Pac money the others have.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/11/politics/paul-momentum/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Says in that article the campaign plans on spending $1million. So they may not have done it YET, but they will. Plus there's another thread on the grassroots forum talking about a SuperPAC for Ron that is going to spend $300k. Not bad really.

[pauliticalfan]

Let's repeat what we did in NH in SC. I really hope RevPac has some things planned for down there, because I really feel like they helped big time in NH.

My suggestion is still an "I Went" ad: military picture + debate footage + narration = GOLD

[jersdream]

Here is the poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf

1/11/12 was the date, so today.....

Ron is now at 11.3% on the RCP average

Insider Advantage last polled South Carolina on December 18th, so 3 1/2 weeks later for this one.

Numbers:

Romney 23 (+4 from last time)
Gingrich 21 (-10 from last time)
Santorum 14 (+10 from last time)
Paul 13 (+6 from last time)
Huntsman 7 (+3 from last time)
Perry 5 (Even from last time).

[SamuraisWisdom]

I understand the campaign's focus on eliminating the other candidates in order to make it a "Romney vs Paul" race, but at what point do they start adding Romney to the mix in terms of attack ads? Romney pulling off a hat trick (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina) may just give him all the momentum he needs to coast through the rest of the election, making Paul insignificant.

If I'm an undecided Republican voter by the time South Carolina finishes (assuming Romney wins), why would I be inclined to support Paul when Romney (coupled with the media) is showing through results that he is the most formidable candidate? Although Paul certainly has his hurdles in South Carolina, I would assume that Romney would be a more difficult pill to swallow but he's still polling first. If Romney can take South Carolina, how can he be stopped elsewhere?

That is certainly a difficult sentiment to overcome, but I think we can do it. Most of the people voting for Romney are doing so because they think he's the only guy who can beat Obama. We have to prove them wrong and it's going to take a lot of "getting the message out" for that to happen. If Romney wins SC but Ron comes in a close second this race will still be far from over.

[Agorism]

Yep they had a graph and we had the smallest ad buy of all the candidates although I think they were combining it with superPAC's. None the less the ads for other candidates were many multiples of what we were doing.

[jersdream]

http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/11/politics/paul-momentum/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Says in that article the campaign plans on spending $1million. So they may not have done it YET, but they will. Plus there's another thread on the grassroots forum talking about a SuperPAC for Ron that is going to spend $300k. Not bad really.

Oh okay. Thanks for the info. So we haven't spent our money too early, we saved it for the 12 day lead up. That's good actually!

Thanks for info + rep.

[ross11988]

How much did we outperform polling in NH?

+5?

Yep, but I don't expect Romney to outperform by 10% like he did in NH, so its looking good. Plus 2 dates and the Huckster forum.

[SamuraisWisdom]

Here is the poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf

1/11/12 was the date, so today.....

Ron is now at 11.3% on the RCP average

Insider Advantage last polled South Carolina on December 18th, so 3 1/2 weeks later for this one.

Numbers:

Romney 23 (+4 from last time)
Gingrich 21 (-10 from last time)
Santorum 14 (+10 from last time)
Paul 13 (+6 from last time)
Huntsman 7 (+3 from last time)
Perry 5 (Even from last time).

Good to see Ron's big gains, and I'm willing to bet that Santorum's finish in NH affected his results as well, otherwise he'd probably be higher than that. This poll also shows that people are STILL weary about switching to Romney. Two victories and only +4? We have a chance!

[schiffheadbaby]

south carolina is huge, please contact anyone and everyone you know in the state.

this will be a huge battleground.

[RestoreTheRepublic]

What is Ron's campaign schedule in SC for the next week or so?

[spudea]

This is a terrible poll because Ron Paul supporters were prolly still hung over from celebrating last night that they couldn't answer their phones.

[MsDoodahs]

Either Mitt's campaign of one of the Mitt PACs is spending a ton on ads in SC - they'll be going heaviest after Newt, I think.

We should benefit.

[seapilot]

I understand the campaign's focus on eliminating the other candidates in order to make it a "Romney vs Paul" race, but at what point do they start adding Romney to the mix in terms of attack ads? Romney pulling off a hat trick (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina) may just give him all the momentum he needs to coast through the rest of the election, making Paul insignificant.

If I'm an undecided Republican voter by the time South Carolina finishes (assuming Romney wins), why would I be inclined to support Paul when Romney (coupled with the media) is showing through results that he is the most formidable candidate? Although Paul certainly has his hurdles in South Carolina, I would assume that Romney would be a more difficult pill to swallow for southern voters but yet he's polling first. If Romney can take South Carolina, how can he be stopped elsewhere?

Well look at it this way. Romney has already won 2 states and still cant poll better than 25% in SC. He has 70% of the Republicans still not liking him. Going forward those 70% of Republicans are still not going to choose him in the primaries if there is another choice. They have to hold their nose for voting for him they will do it in the general.

A lot of voters for RP are first time voters that used to be apathetic and did not support a candidate. I would bet RP is still gathering those people as he goes forward into more states. The last general election 40% of eligible voters did not vote. RP has a way of tapping into that.

[Agorism]

Good starting point actually, but we have so little time to improve it.

I really think Paul should try to defeat Santorum and Gingrich because otherwise, Fox will continue to promote them as the anti-Romney

[RDM]

I read somewhere (can't remember where), the campaign is running the two Hypocrisy Ads for SC (the one for Gingrich and Santorum). I also read, advertising is cheap in SC, so you can really saturate the market with ads without breaking the bank.

[Agorism]

Matt Towery is the president Insider Advantage. He ran several of Newt’s congressional campaigns before become an “independent” pollster.

[schiffheadbaby]

we need boots on the ground,

how strong is our volunteer force there?

at least jack hunter is from south carolina

[bobburn]

Santorum is on a deep slide compared to other recent polls. Rasmussen had him at 24%, CNN had him at 19%, and so did PPP. I'm thinking Ron will be passing him into third very quickly here. Hopefully the surge continues as his message is spread to South Carolina!

[RDM]

Can the grassroots do some targeted Facebook ads for SC. I think there's still going to be a "pump" job for Huntsman down there and we need to keep him in check.

[Agorism]

Morris is saying on O'Rielly that Santorum or Gingrich is going to get 2nd in SC so that by Florida an anti-Romney will be anointed.

I don't want them defeating us.

[opinionatedfool]

we are within 10% of mitt and about to streak past rick S

newt is our most difficult obstacle in terms of getting 2nd

we may end up just underneath mitt and just above newt

Yeah, we have to get the grinch moving down again. He has all his rich buddies who can help him out. I hope he gets bumped down to 4 or something.

[seawolf]

The South Carolina Money Bomb this Saturday sponsored by the Campaign is critical.

We need to raise several million dollars over the weekend to give Ron plenty of money for South Carolina, Florida, Nevada and beyond.

Hopefully, the Grassroots will have a spontaneous EXPLOSION!!!! I see the Official Pledge Site is approaching $400,000 in just over two days!!!!

I have a feeling the Total Raised on Saturday may really shock us all!!!!

[Dianne]

I'm fron South Carolina. They are fodder for the Obama owned FOX and CNN... In my view... Paul must hit them with draft dodger ads in prime time.... Newt, Santorium.... draft dodgers..

I can go to my family graveyard and see real gold crosses of my relatives who served in the confederate war... Hit them on draft dodging... Only two of those running for office, ever served this great nation... the others were chicken hawks...

That's what will win SC.

[sailingaway]

Well, we're getting there. We're just getting started....

[sailingaway]

The South Carolina Money Bomb this Saturday sponsored by the Campaign is critical.

We need to raise several million dollars over the weekend to give Ron plenty of money for South Carolina, Florida, Nevada and beyond.

Hopefully, the Grassroots will have a spontaneous EXPLOSION!!!! I see the Official Pledge Site is approaching $400,000 in just over two days!!!!

I have a feeling the Total Raised on Saturday may really shock us all!!!!

Do we have any graphics or videos to spread? I've sent some tweets out, but I'm not seeing much on this.

[Ssd]

We might not be able to win but we should be able to come in third if the campaign is up to snuff. Hell, if Paul dominates the debate he might be close to first. However, Romney's campaign has been working in SC since 2008.

[dmitchell]

It's a bad state for Paul but he needs to do well enough to maintain momentum.

[jax]

Lets remember, bumps usually happen 2-3 days after an election, so this is a prebump poll. If it was done today then most people were called before 24 hours even passed. Expect ron to rise atleast 5 points by the time other polls come out

[sailingaway]

I don't see when the polling was done, it makes a difference....

[RDM]

I'm fron South Carolina, and no dumber people ever existed on this planet. They are fodder for the Obama owned FOX and CNN... They are lazy, and don't research on their own... In my view... Paul must hit them with draft dodger ads in prime time.... Newt, Santorium.... draft dodgers..

I can go to my family graveyard and see real gold crosses of my relatives who served in the confederate war... Hit them on draft dodging... Only two of those running for office, ever served this great nation... the others were chicken hawks...

That's what will win SC.

The only two draft dodgers are Mitt and Newt. Santorum was not a draft dodger (too young).

[Dianne]

Draft dodgers !!!! Draft Dodgers.... Mark my words... Those who wish to hide behind their bankster money, and frolic in their gold coins... while South Carolianians sacrificed so much in blood throughout these wars.... Yet Ron Paul served to protect them, put his life on the line to protect them and provide them freedom of religion and prayer...

Winning stat SC... I'm telling you right now !!!!

[pilby]

If you look at the actual results, Santorum has 13.5% and Paul 13.3%. When rounded they look like one percentage point difference. But in actuality, only 0.2%.

Not that that really means a whole heck of a lot...

[pilby]

The poll was just today.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf

[RPit]

People have to understand. Independents and Democrats or anyone else is voting Ron Paul because of his message. But Republicans are voting for Romney because of his 'electability'.. We challenge that by showing we're electable in ads. We slam Rick Santorum for being against Right to Work, we promote our budget plan and what Ron Paul will do for Social Security!!! This is all we must accomplish prior to the primary.

[RDM]

People have to understand. Independents and Democrats or anyone else is voting Ron Paul because of his message. But Republicans are voting for Romney because of his 'electability'.. We challenge that by showing we're electable in ads. We slam Rick Santorum for being against Right to Work, we promote our budget plan and what Ron Paul will do for Social Security!!! This is all we must accomplish prior to the primary.

Facebook campaign showing Ron's electability against Obama?

[parocks]

Let's repeat what we did in NH in SC. I really hope RevPac has some things planned for down there, because I really feel like they helped big time in NH.

My suggestion is still an "I Went" ad: military picture + debate footage + narration = GOLD

new ron + rand military picture. most people haven't seen that yet and it's a great picture. facebook ad

http://webmusicvideo.com/bachmann2012/media/kunena/attachments/70/2JMhp.jpg

[jax]

The poll was just today.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf

Which means this is without the nh bump. Bumps usually take 2 or 3 days. This poll was done less than 24 hours after the nh results

[S.Shorland]

The ONLY thing that will break Paul out to be the anti-romney will be his electability.Doug Wead mentioned it last time in response to Dana Bash's assertion that Republicans believed he wasn't,WHEN ALL NON PUSH POLLS SHOW HIM TYING WITH ROMNEY AGAINST OBAMA.Make an AD showing the Fox presentation of him doing as well as Romney and the PPP article that mentioned Paul as being able to make the statistical case that he is the only one capable of beating Obama.This is the make or break caucus so make the ad and run it daily.They used NH exit polls to push-poll their meme against Paul.Call out the media lies boldly with an ad.EDIT: The independents who voted for Paul 3-to-1 are real voters proving his case.

[Feeding the Abscess]

I understand the campaign's focus on eliminating the other candidates in order to make it a "Romney vs Paul" race, but at what point do they start adding Romney to the mix in terms of attack ads? Romney pulling off a hat trick (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina) may just give him all the momentum he needs to coast through the rest of the election, making Paul insignificant.

If I'm an undecided Republican voter by the time South Carolina finishes (assuming Romney wins), why would I be inclined to support Paul when Romney (coupled with the media) is showing through results that he is the most formidable candidate? Although Paul certainly has his hurdles in South Carolina, I would assume that Romney would be a more difficult pill to swallow for southern voters but yet he's polling first. If Romney can take South Carolina, how can he be stopped elsewhere?

Romney's been included in several attack ads. He just hasn't had his own ad yet, and it'd be wise not to have him turn those tens of millions of dollars and surrogates on us until everyone else is gone.

[parocks]

Facebook campaign showing Ron's electability against Obama?

Facebook is giving away $50 of free ads. Instead of everybody using facebook for gotv, we also should be targeting every type of person with what we have. Who exactly wants to hear about Ron Paul's electability against Obama? I don't know but it's something we can figure out. But any time we come across anything we think is good, we should be thinking about facebook ad. Think about how we can target, what groups are there. We hear that a band tweets something favorable about Ron Paul - facebook ad to their fan. That's all a little off topic. But think who wants to hear about our good stories. Veterans can be targeted in Facebook I believe

[tsetsefly]

Not bad, we need those anti Newt and anti santorum ads to roll out... I guess people in SC have not been introduced to serial hypocricy yet...

[parocks]

The ONLY thing that will break Paul out to be the anti-romney will be his electability.Doug Wead mentioned it last time in response to Dana Bash's assertion that Republicans believed he wasn't,WHEN ALL NON PUSH POLLS SHOW HIM TYING WITH ROMNEY AGAINST OBAMA.Make an AD showing the Fox presentation of him doing as well as Romney and the PPP article that mentioned Paul as being able to make the statistical case that he is the only one capable of beating Obama.This is the make or break caucus so make the ad and run it daily.They used NH exit polls to push-poll their meme against Paul.Call out the media lies boldly with an ad.EDIT: The independents who voted for Paul 3-to-1 are real voters proving his case.

How do you define "push poll"?

[seapilot]

SC is going to be a major battle ground. Its do or die for Santorum and Grinch. Grinch has attack ads going after Romney, we have attack ads on Newt and Santorum. Imagine Romney will have attack ads on Newt. The 3 candidates that probably are going to be the cleanest after all this mud slinging are Rick Perry, Huntsman and Ron Paul.

[GunnyFreedom]

RevPAC "Oath" will do well in SC.

It is my intention to go to Charleston SC the evening of the 13th, to arrive the morning of the 14th, and stay through the election on the 21st.

[Liberty Shark]

Not bad. A top 3 finish here would be great. This is probably the highest Dr. Paul has ever been in South Carolina, and the numbers should still be able to go up even more. It would be amazing to somehow get to the 17%-19% range, and that would likely be a good 3rd.

[Legend1104]

This could be great we could have the opportunity to come in a strong 3rd or maybe a weak second.

[ONUV]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53imCMnHzZA

[Kregisen]

I have a couple cousins in SC...I already got one to for sure vote for Ron on election day. The other one I will have to contact.

I also have a friend over there but he's a democrat...is SC open or closed?

We all need to make sure we contact all family/friends in states where primaries are coming up.

[S.Shorland]

Did they ask a representative sample of the population who would vote in the General: 'If in the general election your choice was either Obama or Paul,for which would you vote'? No.A push-poll is one wherein the pollster is trying to mold opinion rather than measure it.Question:What do Republicans want to achieve in the forthcoming election.Answer: To kick Obama out.In a truthful media,it would be acknowledged that Paul will do that as well as Romney.
How do you define "push poll"?

[GunnyFreedom]

I have a couple cousins in SC...I already got one to for sure vote for Ron on election day. The other one I will have to contact.

I also have a friend over there but he's a democrat...is SC open or closed?

We all need to make sure we contact all family/friends in states where primaries are coming up.

Pretty sure SC is open

[Havax]

Run the anti-Newt and anti-Santorum ad in SC - then release an ad on Paul's foreign policy + electability. Newt, Santorum, and Huntsman will go after Romney.

[blazeKing]

Any bump won't be seen for a few more days..I think we'll gain 4 or 5 more points

[S.Shorland]

The media hate his guts.You know that and I know that.I think your fellow Americans who want Obama out should be properly informed as to their choices of who can actually achieve that goal.

[nf7mate]

SC is OPEN

[RickyJ]

Great, Romney is within striking distance. A win SC is definitely a possibility.

Will be in SC Monday for some door knocking. :D

[JJ2]

I have a couple cousins in SC...I already got one to for sure vote for Ron on election day. The other one I will have to contact.

I also have a friend over there but he's a democrat...is SC open or closed?

We all need to make sure we contact all family/friends in states where primaries are coming up.

It's an open primary, but you can only vote in one of the primaries (either Rep. or Dem., which I believe is a week later). So we need to get as many Democrats as possible out to vote for Ron Paul.

Unfortunately, Huntsman does the best with Dem. voters and will probably draw some votes.

[libertybrewcity]

I'll be satisfied with anything above 10%, but I'll be extremely satisfied with 15%+. I hope Ron can get some delegates out of this.

25 total delegates - penalty: 50% of 50 [10 base at-large / 21 re: 7 congressional districts / 3 party / 16 bonus]

they were penalized for moving up their primary so they only have 25. If the original distribution delegate numbers are halved as well then 5 will be given to the winner overall, about 10 or 11 divided among winners of the 7 congressional districts, 1 or 2 party delegates(from 3) and 8 bonus(from 16). I have a feeling the 3 superdelegates will be kept so it would be maybe (5 at large+10 cong. dis.+3 superdel.+8 bonus=26) It might look something like this.

[nowwearefree]

I'm fron South Carolina, and no dumber people ever existed on this planet. They are fodder for the Obama owned FOX and CNN... They are lazy, and don't research on their own... In my view... Paul must hit them with draft dodger ads in prime time.... Newt, Santorium.... draft dodgers.


lol, thats the stereotype i always have in my mind even though i have never been to SC
glad u confirmed it for me

[RickyJ]

Romney beats RP by 30 among seniors, and only is ahead of RP by 10.

We need to focus on seniors then. We get even with Romney on seniors and we could win this thing.

[trey4sports]

Let's repeat what we did in NH in SC. I really hope RevPac has some things planned for down there, because I really feel like they helped big time in NH.

My suggestion is still an "I Went" ad: military picture + debate footage + narration = GOLD

love
the
idea
dude

[GunnyFreedom]

lol, thats the stereotype i always have in my mind even though i have never been to SC
glad u confirmed it for me

Well, SC tends to blowback over hard negs too, so be careful.

[rp2012win]

RP only 19% of youth vote, but it was 48% in Iowa and 47% in NH. Look for that to be 40% on primary day. RP's numbers are going north of 13%.I agree. I don't care what state it is. The pollster is on the good stuff if he says gingrich gets 31% of the 18-29 group and only 19% for RP. Young people are starting a revolution and because of the internet are less likely to be brainwashed by the media. Gingrich does not offer young people anything. He is status quo establishment for big government and less freedom.

[jax]

The best possible outcome would be paul 1st grinch 2nd and romney 3rd. This would strengthen ron as romneys main contender and would weaken romney.

I don't mind grinch so high in sc and florida because once this goes to nevada and the next group, he has no chance.

[JohnGalt23g]

This looks pretty good. We need to out-hustle Santorum, and let Newt and Mitt pummel each other.

This is one we just want to escape reasonably unbloodied. Because, as the young kids once said: "It's Go Time" in South Carolina.

[JJ2]

If Paul (or someone besides Romney) does not come in first in SC, the nomination is over. Period. You can't get enough delegates without winning states. And Romney will win almost every state and a huge percentage of the vote after SC, if he wins the first three states.

[ronpaulitician]

Electability wins.

Romney got 63% of NH voters whose number one issue was electability ("Can defeat Obama). Paul got only 11% of those.

This voter block made up 35% of the total votes. That means that 22% of Romney's 39% was based on electability compared to just 4% for Ron Paul. If voters would be aware of the national polls that have both Romney and Paul running close to Obama, the gap between Paul and Romney would quickly close.

NH exit poll data (http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/nh)

[pinkmandy]

Draft dodgers !!!! Draft Dodgers.... Mark my words... Those who wish to hide behind their bankster money, and frolic in their gold coins... while South Carolianians sacrificed so much in blood throughout these wars.... Yet Ron Paul served to protect them, put his life on the line to protect them and provide them freedom of religion and prayer...

Winning stat SC... I'm telling you right now !!!!

Trying to get your post some new views. You are right imo. I'm southern and familiar with this mindset. Conservative southerners do not like draft dodgers. I imagine quite a few, upon hearing about that, will decide immediately to vote for someone else. It's not the hypocrisy of dodging wars and later advocating waging them when it's not their lives at stake that will upset them (that's what gets me). It's the act of dodging, of not serving, of neglecting your duty, of making excuses while others stepped up for you and risked their lives or died. Major disgust, like finding something foul on the bottom of your shoe.

[J_White]

good to see the upward move !
need to focus on "electability" by highlighting the latest CBS poll and previous such polls against Obama.
probably a statement on foreign policy about Just War principle ?

http://i.imgur.com/M1mUe.jpg

Newt on Adultery and Draft

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwZI3vHj5Fg

[BuddyRey]

Can we close this gap in so little time?

[qh4dotcom]

I'm fron South Carolina. They are fodder for the Obama owned FOX and CNN... In my view... Paul must hit them with draft dodger ads in prime time.... Newt, Santorium.... draft dodgers..


You can't accuse Santorum of being a draft dodger....he was about 5 years old when the Vietnam war started.

[pauliticalfan]

I really wish there was video of a young, veteran Ron Paul. Would love to see if he talked the same and had the same mannerisms.

[PauliticsPolitics]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf

(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/InsiderAdvantage_SC_0111.pdf)This is a sketchy poll where lots of the numbers do not add up.
For instance, there are 22 black people polled, and Romney got 1.7% of the black vote.
1.7% of 22 people is 0.374 people.

Also, Gingrich getting 31% of the youth vote compared to Paul's 19%? really?

Buyer beware with this poll and Insider Advantage in general.

[mbburch]

Yeah I'm very skeptical of this particular poll. Supposedly Gingrich is getting 30% of the under 30 vote? Makes no sense. Very hard to believe that Paul is only pulling 20% of the under 30 crowd.

[gosmo]

If Paul (or someone besides Romney) does not come in first in SC, the nomination is over. Period. You can't get enough delegates without winning states. And Romney will win almost every state and a huge percentage of the vote after SC, if he wins the first three states.

Wrong. Romney winning will be MUCH better than a Newt win. If Newt wins SC it is over for us, he will become the anti-romney candidate going into Florida.

[Agorism]

If Romney gets this, and Paul endorses Constitution or Libertarian party, I sure hope Rand Paul doesn't break rank and endorse the establishment.

[Student Of Paulism]

This is a sketchy poll where lots of the numbers do not add up.
For instance, there are 22 black people polled, and Romney got 1.7% of the black vote.
1.7% of 22 people is 0.374 people.

Also, Gingrich getting 31% of the youth vote compared to Paul's 19%? really?

Buyer beware with this poll and Insider Advantage in general.


Lol true. How do you get 1/3 of a person? Maybe it was a dwarf? :D

As for Gingrich taking a lot in the youth vote there, yea, i think its definitely possible (for now). Ya gotta understand, Ron hasn't been down that way much and people there arent too familiar with what he is all about. Since the time Gingrich spiked in mid November (ya know, because of his 'divine' debate skills :rolleyes:) he was at the top of all of the SC polls and in FL too. But since that time he has plummeted and hasn't done better than 4th so far in the first 2 states, because people are learning what a corrupt globalist shill he is, and all of his bitterness and negative character is coming out as well too. He has dropped a ton since those early SC polls long ago too, and will continue to fall even more. So i am sure that demographic will go farther down as well and go up in Ron's favor soon.

Just wish there was more time, it really sucks how these things play out. I wish the whole process started as soon as the new president takes office lol, this way you have a 3-4 years of campaigning for lengthy amount of times in each of the first several states. Romney and Newt get high poll numbers in states they have barely been in (or not been in at all) based on 'word of mouth' and media pumping, and familiarity from last cycle (and Newt since he was a prominent figure in the 90s), so it's mostly all soft support, especially in Newt's case, proven by his multiple downward slides. Ron's message is a powerful one indeed, and the right message, but it is the kind that takes time to sink in and needs to be dissected more, since it's not the same ole vapor and hot air being spewed by the other empty suits. Its tough trying to change hearts and minds in 9 days :(

[Corey]

I'm very happy with these numbers. The campaign strategy is to let several other campaigns bury eachother in South Carolina. When looking at their spending vs. their poll results, that is exactly what's happening. They're spending tons of money with little result.

We can easily get somewhere in the top 3 here. I just don't see how anyone but Romney competes with us very much longer. And when those Goldmna Sachs Romney/Obama ads start flying, Romney will drop so fast he'll get the bends!

[Liberty Shark]

If Romney gets this, and Paul endorses Constitution or Libertarian party, I sure hope Rand Paul doesn't break rank and endorse the establishment.

1) I highly doubt Romney can actually win. Sure, he may take these first states through Florida, but these states have been controlled by the establishment like crazy. If they try to tell people its over after Florida, when only a tiny fraction of delegates have been won, people will go berserk. Once this process gets to places like Texas, Montana, Idaho, California, Mississippi - I think with a one-on-one fight between Dr. Paul and Romney, at that point Dr. Paul starts to win some of these states in 1st place.
2)If somehow Dr. Paul does not win, I would guess (just a suspicion) that he does not endorse GOP nominee, but may try to influence platform. However, he could in theory endorse Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party nominee. Although I really have no idea. My guess is he leaves it up for people to make their own decision.
3) I do know that it would be absolutely stupid and completely absurd for Rand to NOT endorse the GOP nominee if Dr. Paul does not win. Sure, I wish he would not, but let's be realistic here. He has a great chance of winning the GOP nomination eventually, why ruin that chance? In the long-term, the best odds of advancing liberty is going to be through the republican party. The young voters are supporting Dr. Paul in huge percentages, and 4-8 yrs from now they will be older, the current senior voters who have been supporting under 10% will be gone (sorry but its the truth), and the next round of young people will be eligible to vote. The future of the republican party appears to be headed towards libertarianism. We cannot allow the neocons to try to do to libertarianism what they did to conservatism. Third parties are not going to be successful under the current rules, maybe in a parliamentary-type system or parts of Europe where they distribute seats by proportion of vote, but not here.

[jersdream]

Don't be surprised if Ron pulls of 20% again in South Carolina....

Also remember, this primary isn't next Tuesday, but next Saturday...so those extra days could be huge.

[Marky]

Why the hell do they like Newt in SC?

[jax]

Why the hell do they like Newt in SC?

Big time warhawks. Probably the worst in the country.

I just can't wait untill we get past sc and florida, because after that is where ron can shine.

[GunnyFreedom]

Why the hell do they like Newt in SC?

Pretends to be conservative. Likes bombing foreign countries.

[asurfaholic]

We can easily get somewhere in the top 3 here. I just don't see how anyone but Romney competes with us very much longer. And when those Goldmna Sachs Romney/Obama ads start flying, Romney will drop so fast he'll get the bends!

Problem is, you get the bends when you come up too fast...

[abruzz0]

South Carolina sounds like Military Industrial Complex central. Don't think we'll do too well there. So far the polls have been pretty accurate.

[tsetsefly]

I really hope, they show the serial hypocrisy ad along with the santorum ad...

And off course an electibility ad is needed...

[KEEF]

Come on all my military folks out in Goose Creek, Charleston, Shaw, and Columbia. Turn out, turn out, turn out!!! We are dominating the other candidates in military donations, lets translate them into primary votes.

[Dsylexic]

South Carolina sounds like Military Industrial Complex central. Don't think we'll do too well there. So far the polls have been pretty accurate.

military industrial complex is different from military personnel. MIC is halliburton,GE ,Lockheed martin and blackwater.are they based in SC?

[Freeberty]

The real problem with this poll is that it doesn't include Steven Colbert!