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View Full Version : VOTE-Where do we finish in South Carolina




nyrgoal99
01-11-2012, 03:04 PM
1/10 RCP Average (Before NH)

Romney 31%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 20%
Paul 11%
Perry 5%
Huntsman 2%

Paulite
01-11-2012, 03:08 PM
well get a 5-10 bump before the first debate airs monday

doctorfunk
01-11-2012, 03:11 PM
I think the win will help Romney in the next set of polls because it furthers his electable notion. Santorum and Gingrich should fall quite a ways, but I would doubt they fall much below 15%. I would guess Perry becomes a footnote because he won't be seen as the front runner for Tea Party voters. RP should rise to 2nd place in the next polls. I think the advertising and debates will have a rather large effect on the actual vote though and there will be a lot of time for things to change.

eric4186
01-11-2012, 03:16 PM
we should be thrilled if he gets 3rd. same thing in Florida. Nevada, on the other hand, we could very well take 1st with a bit of effort.

virginiakid
01-11-2012, 03:16 PM
Not sure, it really depends on Paul and his message. I assume SC is a closed primary and that you had to switch parties by a certain time to vote in that primary. Is attacking Romney while everyone else is a tactic that should be used by the Paul campaign? I don't think so, in fact, I really think he can make inroads by spouting his long service in the military, how he is pro-life, Pro-Christian-he really needs to explain why as Christians we need to embrace liberty and a peaceful solution to war and why it is biblically supported. He needs to constantly put veterans out there and if plausible use those who are currently in the military (not in uniform) to campaign for him. I think if he does that with well calculated attacks, he can get 2nd or better.

Edward
01-11-2012, 03:17 PM
I predict 17%. This one could use a bump, too....

htt p://www.kxly.com/politics/27825147/detail.html?mid=5735845

69360
01-11-2012, 03:18 PM
4th. Sorry that's realistic.

rp2012win
01-11-2012, 03:38 PM
If 18-29 year olds were 30% of the vote we would be tough to beat. Maybe the young people will wakeup

Paulitics 2011
01-11-2012, 03:41 PM
A lot of this depends on how successful his campaign is.

RonPaulFever
01-11-2012, 03:42 PM
Not sure, it really depends on Paul and his message. I assume SC is a closed primary and that you had to switch parties by a certain time to vote in that primary. Is attacking Romney while everyone else is a tactic that should be used by the Paul campaign? I don't think so, in fact, I really think he can make inroads by spouting his long service in the military, how he is pro-life, Pro-Christian-he really needs to explain why as Christians we need to embrace liberty and a peaceful solution to war and why it is biblically supported. He needs to constantly put veterans out there and if plausible use those who are currently in the military (not in uniform) to campaign for him. I think if he does that with well calculated attacks, he can get 2nd or better.

SC is an open primary.

RickyJ
01-11-2012, 03:47 PM
I tell you what, we better shoot for first and if we don't get it hopefully get a close second. Ron Paul is in it to win it and we should be too. All we have to do is get the grassroots going in SC. Phone calls are OK, but meeting people in person through door knocking might work better. We need to treat SC as important as NH and Iowa, cause if Paul doesn't finish well there people will start to write him off and this nomination will go to Romney.

We have tough task set before us, but remember, most people don't vote, like ever, so if we can get these people out to vote for Paul that would be a plus that is not reflected in any poll, since non voters are never polled. How do we get non-voters to the polls to vote for Ron? I heard someone else say that you could buy them a burger, or a beer if they drink. Anything it takes to give Ron the victory short of prostitution would be worth it. :D

speciallyblend
01-11-2012, 03:47 PM
voted 3rd or higher:)

69360
01-11-2012, 03:55 PM
I'm hoping mitten/grinch/frothy form a circular firing squad trying to win SC leaving Ron to rise above. Add in a Demint endorsement and maybe he could do better than 4th. FL and SC are going to be dark times for this campaign, prepare yourselves for it.

nyrgoal99
01-11-2012, 06:28 PM
Up

opinionatedfool
01-11-2012, 07:23 PM
3rd.

nyrgoal99
01-11-2012, 08:13 PM
I went with 4th but 2-3 is possible. See what type of bump we get

OrbitzXT
01-11-2012, 08:16 PM
I'd guess 3rd place, but I won't be surprised, disappointed or discouraged if we come in 4th. I'm curious the impact Newt's 3.x million worth of ads will have on Romney and Newt himself. Also Santorum's very poor performance might hurt him in SC, we'll see.

seawolf
01-11-2012, 08:20 PM
The Primary is 9 days away, put this thread back up in a week, it is meaningless today!!!

Aratus
01-11-2012, 08:22 PM
we edge past newt gingrich for a close tight second to mitt romney.

eleganz
01-11-2012, 08:26 PM
ALL WE NEED IS 20% + and we'll be good!

We have to stay consistent.

Duckman
01-11-2012, 08:49 PM
I think 2nd would definitely seal the deal that it's Paul vs. Romney. I would be estatic with 2nd, and I think it's doable. Paul will HAVE to get equal time next debate. The way other candidates have attacked Romney has majorly backfired, and Ron has benefitted from this backfire. All this on top of 2nd in NH....

Aratus
01-11-2012, 08:50 PM
mitt romney
dr. ron paul
newt gingrich

win,place,show

pilby
01-11-2012, 09:00 PM
A bump from NH, plus positive attention from DeMint & Tom Davis... could it put Paul at or near the top...?

dfalken
01-11-2012, 11:03 PM
A second place finish would basically finish off the rest of the clowns. I think all 4 of them would have to drop out immediately or after Florida max. And then the real fun could begin when it's us against Romney. I am seeing a real path to the nomination at this point but I do think a second in South Carolina is almost necessary. If it takes too long to make it a Paul/Romney race then Romney might get too much of an advantage to be caught.

axlr
01-11-2012, 11:06 PM
I'm going conservative here and saying 3rd. I think it will be a close 3rd though, and he'll get somewhere around 17% of the vote.

Peace&Freedom
01-11-2012, 11:24 PM
Paul is in 2nd place, REALISTICALLY. 1) He's been in the 23% zone in the first two actual contests. 2) He is objectively surging, not the media propped up surges of Santorum/Huntsman, and this should lift him into the mid 20's. 3) Today's SC polls show Gingrich and Santorum only at about 20-21%, so a 23%+ finish could beat them out if their support flatlines. 4) The heavy negative ad storm headed Romney's way will drop him back down to 30% or below. My prediction:

Romney: 29%
Paul: 24%
Gingrich: 18%
Santorum: 14%
Perry: 9%
Huntsman/misc: 6%

And 2 or 3 will drop out after SC.

nyrgoal99
01-12-2012, 03:50 PM
See how it goes

Neomatrix
01-12-2012, 04:10 PM
1st place finish! Winning!

Endthefednow
01-12-2012, 04:19 PM
Paul will have 0% :eek:

cowpunk12
01-12-2012, 04:22 PM
We ought to win Nevada. I'm concerned about the West to some extent, as the most libertarian leaning states (Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, etc.) also have the some of the highest Mormon population, which will certainly generate some automatic identity politics votes for Romney. But Nevada is libertarianish as a state, and it's a caucus. That ought to be a win.