Time for Blue Republicans to shine in South Carolina? (fully open primary)

[harikaried]

South Carolina voters do not register with a party affiliation, so all registered voters can participate in the Republican Primary.


Delegate Selection: Winner-Take-All (by district and statewide),
Polling hours 7:00a EST (1200 UTC) to 7:00p EST (0000 UTC).
Voter Eligibility: Open Primary
Voter Affiliation: Voter registration does not include party affiliation
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/SC-R

The campaign is probably focusing on people who have previously voted Republican, so what can we do to get Democrats to vote for Ron Paul?

We probably don't need to hard sell them on Ron Paul quite yet, but give them the idea that debates between Ron Paul and Obama would be good for the country.

[evilfunnystuff]

bump

[maxoutco]

South Carolina voters do not register with a party affiliation, so all registered voters can participate in the Republican Primary.



The campaign is probably focusing on people who have previously voted Republican, so what can we do to get Democrats to vote for Ron Paul?

We probably don't need to hard sell them on Ron Paul quite yet, but give them the idea that debates between Ron Paul and Obama would be good for the country.


FACEBOOK BOMB for SC, Party Affiliation Democrate
"End The Wars"

[maxoutco]

South Carolina voters do not register with a party affiliation, so all registered voters can participate in the Republican Primary.



The campaign is probably focusing on people who have previously voted Republican, so what can we do to get Democrats to vote for Ron Paul?

We probably don't need to hard sell them on Ron Paul quite yet, but give them the idea that debates between Ron Paul and Obama would be good for the country.

What if we purchased the democrat address list and did a snail mail bomb?

[tsai3904]

There is no Democratic primary too unlike in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Shane Harris]

its winner take all?

[hueylong]

SC is Winner Take All -- statewide, and by congressional district. That means that delegates are awarded for winning statewide, and 3 delegates for winning a congressional district.

I'm fairly certain the campaign is aware that SC is an open primary and already has strategy and tactics in place to communicate with and turn out not only Republicans, but also Independents and Democrats.

Phone from Home. Phone from Home. Phone from Home. Phone from Home.

THAT'S what we can do to help win SC.

[Luieburger]

its winner take all?

Green papers say no, other sources say yes. I've been confused as hell all day on this.

[harikaried]

Green papers say no, other sources say yes. I've been confused as hell all day on this.There are two sets of delegates in South Carolina:

25 total delegates
14 delegates - 2 delegates to each of the 7 congressional districts going to the candidate with the most votes in that CD
11 delegates - all 11 goes to the winner of the popular vote in the state

[tremendoustie]

There are two sets of delegates in South Carolina:

25 total delegates
14 delegates - 2 delegates to each of the 7 congressional districts going to the candidate with the most votes in that CD
11 delegates - all 11 goes to the winner of the popular vote in the state

So, mostly winner take all. You could get 25% in every ward to the winner's 26%, and not get a single delegate.

[harikaried]

So, mostly winner take all. You could get 25% in every ward to the winner's 26%, and not get a single delegate.Yeah, it'll be tricky to win the majority of delegates. Although Romney's strategy in Iowa focused on just the big cities.

Total population 4.7m. Columbia has 129k. Charleston 120k.

[harikaried]

Do we have any demographics data on which congressional districts are more democratic leaning?

[Dsylexic]

so we should concentrate on WINNING the smaller districts.we are unlikely to get the top in the big population centers.but we need to ensure 1st place in ALL small districts

[WD-NY]

We need to hammer Huntsman on Pro-Iran-war, pro NDAA, pro-assassination-by-drone and pro-20k-troops-in-afghan-forever.

The only reason that jackass is staying in is to take votes from Ron. I know the campaign (via Doug Wead) is saying that huntsman takes from Romney, but after NH, that simply isn't true. On liberal/democratic blogs, huntsman = "anti-war!" + "believes in science/global-warming!" + "the only reasonable republican!!11". We need to educate them ASAP.

[sailingaway]

We have to make sure EVERYONE knows Huntsman said he would vote for NDAA. He is going around to campuses now trying to pitch people who should be voting for Ron. I don't know if we can buy ads on school websites or anything.....

[harikaried]

I just found this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2 008

Bob Conley ran on the Democratic ticket and lost with 790,216 of the votes (42.3%).

Conley was a Republican but left the party due to frustration over immigration, trade, and the Iraq War. Some have compared him to Republican Congressman Ron Paul, as Conley supported Republican Congressman Ron Paul in his presidential campaign.

Can we reach out to Conley? Hopefully he still has connections to a good number of those 790,216 democratic voters.

Even if you look at the just the Democratic primary senate results, Conley got 73,793 (50.3%) of the votes. Those people probably are more dedicated to the message than just party lines, and are probably open to Ron Paul.

[sailingaway]

I just found this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina,_2 008

Bob Conley ran on the Democratic ticket and lost with 790,216 of the votes (42.3%).

Conley was a Republican but left the party due to frustration over immigration, trade, and the Iraq War. Some have compared him to Republican Congressman Ron Paul, as Conley supported Republican Congressman Ron Paul in his presidential campaign.

Can we reach out to Conley? Hopefully he still has connections to a good number of those 790,216 democratic voters.

Yeah, I donated to him.

He's not really a Democrat, at least he was a member of the GOP exec committee until he quit to run against Lindsay as a Democrat. The Democrats endorsed Lindsay Graham....but in the Dem primary, Conley beat the rest. It is a really, really conservative state.

[mavtek]

Yes, lets hope Bob can at least send out a few emails, we don't need an endorsement. I wouldn't expect him to endorse anyway as Paul wasn't able to endorse him last time.

[harikaried]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/South_Carolina_Presidential_Election_Results_by_Co unty%2C_2008.svg/304px-South_Carolina_Presidential_Election_Results_by_Co unty%2C_2008.svg.pngHere's the general election results from 2008 of McCain vs Obama.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_South_Carol ina,_2008

CNN data:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPSC

Richland County (county seat = Columbia) voted 105k (64%) Obama vs 58k (35%) McCain.
Charleston County voted 83k (54%) Obama vs 70k (45%) McCain.

But both those regions are pretty urban, and Romney has focused on those types of areas heavily in Iowa.

[Maximus]

No need to go anti-Huntsman in this state, he has absolutely zero game outside of New Hampshire. Just straight up Blue Republican type ads on facebook promoting Ron Paul to democrats.

Maybe even target South Carolina Blacks with anti-drug war stuff?

[harikaried]

South Carolina has 7 congressional districts this time. In 2008, 2 districts were blue: District 5 went to Spratt and District 6 went to Clyburn. Although in 2010, Spratt lost lost to Mulvaney.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_i n_South_Carolina,_2010

Regarding redistricting:

District 6

Democrat Jim Clyburn, the Assistant Democratic Leader of the U.S. House, has represented South Carolina's 6th congressional district since 1993 and is expected to seek re-election. The district is expected to continue to strongly favor Democrats.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_i n_South_Carolina,_2012

Here's a map of the congressional districts now that there's 7:

http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?llr=8thfeldab&et=1106823464383&s=2143&e=001eYk_H76Ne55HZwTqIIME6WCFgDucvkLC0uO6FW11Co5mT khaeJHoHnXgvfJbRSc8fZRnKe3pRIlejjNx3-zfg-vcxmzMKzRYQCqFm1WVBEGGDyEUW1EITG-cF0wUSMAxJb-urmsBQEAmLHhIEhebqL8Q6FOqkjB7NYD4ziaT69k1KNTQP26xy wlN16BD7TTA7Wl-JwtoCVapbVtEa0Lt6w==

[harikaried]

Looking at the county colors from 2008 and the new 2012 congressional district map.. I estimate this is the order of most Democratic to most Republican CDs:

District 5 (67% voted D for House)
District 6 (62% voted D for House)
District 7 (north-east counties voted D from District 5 and 6)
District 1 (48% voted D for House)
District 2 (46% voted D for House)
District 4 (37% voted D for House)
Disitrct 3 (35% voted D for House)

[sailingaway]

No need to go anti-Huntsman in this state, he has absolutely zero game outside of New Hampshire. Just straight up Blue Republican type ads on facebook promoting Ron Paul to democrats.



completely disagree. If crossover votes are a big part of our strategy, the media pushed Huntsman who is status quo on all the key issues has to be dealt with.

[harikaried]

Yes, lets hope Bob can at least send out a few emails, we don't need an endorsement. I wouldn't expect him to endorse anyway as Paul wasn't able to endorse him last time.What do you mean by that? "wasn't able to endorse him last time"?

http://www.charlestoncitypaper.com/charleston/democrat-bob-conley-offers-conservatives-a-real-choice-in-november/Content?oid=1114954

"Conley, the Democrat, sounds more like Ron Paul, the Republican. As it turns out Conley voted for Paul in February. "

Jack Hunter wrote that article. I wonder how much influence Jack has in South Carolina. Does he still write in Charleston City Paper every week?

Maybe Charleston City Paper will endorse Ron Paul?

Edit: Haven't listened yet, but Bob Conley was interviewed by Jack Hunter back in 2008 (parts 1, 2, 3):


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFPem0tksf0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A3xBPbUuPY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zTYhby9M-M

[harikaried]

Wow. That was a good interview with Bob and Jack. Hopefully Bob is still active even though there's no Senate race in 2012 in South Carolina. Learned a good bit about Jack Hunter too.

[harikaried]

Newt had an event today with Clyburn (the only Democratic Representative).

Freedom Watch today had Judge bringing up the clip of DeMint from yesterday saying good things about Ron Paul. The former SC governor Mark Sanford also had good things to say about Ron Paul.

Flat Top Bob Conley almost won a House seat and voted for Ron Paul last time.

State Senator Tom Davis has been tweeting pro-Ron Paul messages and is about to endorse a candidate.

But so far only Bob Conley really reaches across to Democrats. Anyone else have suggestions for where to look for Democratic support?

[Highstreet]

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7144/6687567947_c0309515f9.jpg

[zeloc]

Do NOT attack Huntsman or any other candidates. It just puts others on the defensive and makes them more likely to vote for their candidate regardless of how logical a pro-Ron Paul argument is.

The strategy in South Carolina and all the states with open primaries has to be to get the Democratic and Independent vote. If this happened in Iowa Dr. Paul would have won in a landslide but unfortunately it didn't go as anticipated, not enough Democrats registered Republican for a day.

[WD-NY]

No need to go anti-Huntsman in this state, he has absolutely zero game outside of New Hampshire. Just straight up Blue Republican type ads on facebook promoting Ron Paul to democrats.

Maybe even target South Carolina Blacks with anti-drug war stuff?

How does 7% = "not doing anything"??

5-7% could be the difference between 2nd and 3rd for Ron (or ::gasp:: 1st and 2nd). So again, the more we make huntsman a non-option for anti-war, anti-NDAA DEMs, liberals, blue-dogs and independents.

[squirekyle]

bump

[zeloc]

How does 7% = "not doing anything"??

5-7% could be the difference between 2nd and 3rd for Ron (or ::gasp:: 1st and 2nd). So again, the more we make huntsman a non-option for anti-war, anti-NDAA DEMs, liberals, blue-dogs and independents.

But it's impossible to make any candidate a non-option, one can only convince a person to vote for Ron Paul. I'd like to know if anyone has ever convinced a person NOT to vote for someone. Usually they just get defensive and give other reasons why they will stick with their person. There's probably a psychological principle that a person doesn't want to look bad by switching from their person, even if it is the right thing to do. But if you get a person full of positive emotions then that can swing them to Ron Paul.

[harikaried]

Jack Hunter wrote that article. I wonder how much influence Jack has in South Carolina. Does he still write in Charleston City Paper every week?

Maybe Charleston City Paper will endorse Ron Paul?

Turns out yes, Jack Hunter still writes for that newspaper!

http://www.charlestoncitypaper.com/charleston/ron-pauls-government-guillotine/Content?oid=3834714

"Editor's Note: We asked each candidate to write a direct appeal to South Carolina voters. This response is from Jack Hunter. Hunter is the official campaign blogger for GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul, and he co-wrote Rand Paul's The Tea Party Goes to Washington. You can hear Southern Avenger commentaries on The Morning Buzz with Richard Todd on 1250 WTMA. "

[eleganz]

What is the news on the ground in South Carolina right now? is there an indy/dem movement to give Ron a good boost?

[J_White]

agree that the campaign should focus on few districts,
dont understand how this is an open Primary, i thought only registered Republicans can vote here ?
thats why Dr. Paul's numbers are low, isnt it ?

[harikaried]

thats why Dr. Paul's numbers are low, isnt it ?I haven't looked into the details of the polls, but if they are only polling "registered republicans" if that even means anything in SC, that could mean Ron Paul's actual numbers should be a big higher.

[JJ2]

agree that the campaign should focus on few districts,
dont understand how this is an open Primary, i thought only registered Republicans can vote here ?
thats why Dr. Paul's numbers are low, isnt it ?

No, there is no party registration in SC. Every registered voter can vote in one of the two primaries.

[Karsten]

Yeah, I've been saying over and over again from the very beginning that we need to go after democrats upset with Obama in SC.
Nobody listened to me.

[harikaried]

Yeah, I've been saying over and over again from the very beginning that we need to go after democrats upset with Obama in SC.
Nobody listened to me.But how do you find them?

[rs-fl]

I also believe that there are a lot of Democrats that are upset with Obama. I found this link this morning, it's a long conversation but it well worth listening to.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/blacktalkradio/2012/01/08/does-it-matter-if-ron-paul-is-racist-or-not

I have driven though S.C. many times and there seems to be mostly Gospel radio stations throughout the state. I think that a radio campaign talking about the issue Yvette Carnell brings up in the interview would be effective.

[rs-fl]

I also believe that there are a lot of Democrats that are upset with Obama. I found this link this morning, it's a long conversation but it well worth listening to.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/blacktalkradio/2012/01/08/does-it-matter-if-ron-paul-is-racist-or-not

I have driven though S.C. many times and there seems to be mostly Gospel radio stations throughout the state. I think that a radio campaign talking about the issues Yvette Carnell brings up in the interview would be effective.