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View Full Version : Did Mitt Romney really win both Iowa and New Hampshire?




Brian4Liberty
01-11-2012, 12:39 PM
All across the media, especially on the television news channels, the significance of Mitt Romney winning both Iowa and New Hampshire is being touted and discussed. Many pundits and analysts are saying that the race is essentially over, as the candidate who wins both of these States is always the eventual nominee. With hours of time to fill while doing live coverage of the elections, the television personalities may say anything, no matter if it's important or trivial, but is the story of a double win meaningful?

Stories such as the following are commonplace:


Mitt Romney stormed out of New Hampshire Wednesday with a historic achievement under his belt, having scored back-to-back wins in the first two nominating contests,... (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/10/new-hampshire-republican-primary/)

The media narrative of Romney winning both Iowa and New Hampshire does serve to create a perception of inevitability and momentum. This can have a distinct effect on future votes. But is that perception false? Did Romney really win in Iowa?

After the close of vote counting in the Iowa Caucuses, a person who attended one of the Precinct Caucuses was surprised to find that the 2 votes for Romney at his Caucus had turned into 22 votes. Obviously an error of some kind had been made. The story was confirmed by other officials:


The dispute originated when a caucusgoer, Edward True, said in an affidavit that Mitt Romney had been recorded as receiving 22 votes in his precinct, called Washington Wells, when he had in fact received just two votes there on caucus night.
...
The Des Moines Register reported on Friday that Lyle Brinegar, the chair of the Republican Party in Appanoose County, agreed with Mr. True’s account of the vote count and disputed the total listed by the state party.

A third person, Terri Haub, the precinct secretary, also agreed with Mr. True’s account, The Des Moines Register reported.

The alleged 20-vote discrepancy could have potentially swung the victory to Rick Santorum, who trailed Mr. Romney by eight votes statewide based on the state’s initial count. (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/iowa-will-not-change-caucus-result-from-disputed-precinct/)


So enough votes to sway the election in the favor of Rick Santorum were in dispute, but officials assured everyone that the certification process would iron out the details, and that other errors occurred which offset those specific errors identified in Washington Wells. That is a bit vague, and would certainly not hold up under an IRS Audit. Will the final Iowa Certification show us where the errors occurred and what the new counts are? We can only hope at this point. The following is the latest information from Matt Strawn, Chairman of the Iowa GOP:


“Appanoose County has submitted all its required Form E’s for all precincts in Appanoose County,” Mr. Strawn wrote in an e-mail to The Times, referring to the form by which the Republican Party of Iowa certifies its votes on a county-by-county basis. “Now that we have all the county’s forms at Iowa G.O.P. HQ for the two-week certification process, my statement from Thursday night still applies: While we will not comment on specific precinct vote totals during the two-week certification process of 1,774 precincts, the results of the Appanoose County precincts will not change the outcome of Tuesday’s vote.”
...
"The final, certified vote totals will be based on the Form E’s.” (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/iowa-will-not-change-caucus-result-from-disputed-precinct/)

So the current situation is that even though the results from the precinct in question have now been certified, those results will not be revealed "during the two-week certification process". Which raises an obvious question: will they be revealed when the certification process is complete? Inquiring minds want to know.

Meanwhile, the media narrative of the inevitable Romney nomination due to first place finishes in both Iowa and New Hampshire will continue, during the two week certification process, and possibly beyond.


Seconds after the polls closed tonight Fox News called the New Hampshire Primary's winner as Mitt Romney. They also said that his victory would be substantial. This makes Romney the first non-incumbent to win both early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. No candidate has ever gotten the Republican nomination without winning one or the other. No other candidate, except a sitting president, has ever won both. (http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-columbus/romney-first-to-win-both-iowa-and-new-hampshire)


Mitt Romney’s one-two punch in Iowa and New Hampshire makes him nearly unstoppable,... (http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/view/20220111romney_all_but_seals_it/)


His expected victory in next Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary would make him the first Republican other than an incumbent president to win Iowa and New Hampshire back-to-back. That would be a huge achievement, propelling him forcefully into the rest of the primary season and quite possibly ending the Republican race well before the first big round of elections on Super Tuesday in early March. (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-mitt-romney-poised-to-make-history-20120104,0,5677464.story)

To be continued...


The final results are in: Rick Santorum wins Iowa

Over two weeks of "money, momentum and media" for Mitt Romney, effecting voting in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida (many people in Florida have already mailed in their ballots). This a major bombshell.

And in Summary:

The fact is that the Iowa Caucus process was terribly flawed, for the following reasons:

- Most importantly, the Iowa GOP recklessly and erroneously announced a winner in a race that was too close to call.
- 8 Precincts were disenfranchised.
- "Typo errors" were discovered in 131 precincts.
- It took over two weeks for an official certification in a race that was too close to call. In a too close to call race, this should have occurred in days, if not hours.

pauliticalfan
01-11-2012, 12:39 PM
We won Independents in both Iowa and New Hampshire. That's more important IMO.

oyarde
01-11-2012, 12:42 PM
New Hampshire yes , Iowa , probably not.

wormyguy
01-11-2012, 01:05 PM
They didn't have the capability to fabricate 40,000 votes in NH, especially since the NH primary is run by the state of New Hampshire and not the NHGOP. Iowa is much more suspect - the outright vote fraud was mainly used to put Romney over Santorum, but they also had precinct chairmen telling Perry and Bachmann supporters to switch to the Mittster and Frothy.

Brian4Liberty
01-11-2012, 01:56 PM
On CNN, just now:

Headline: "ROMNEY MAKES HISTORY, GOP front runner sweeps Iowa, N.H."

On CNN, Gloria Borger doing a segment about how Romney is "clearly the favorite to win the nomination" due to his two wins. She also points out that Mitt Romney is "raising money off of this". The ramifications of the Iowa "win" for Romney are becoming more apparent.

Warrior_of_Freedom
01-11-2012, 03:44 PM
There's one thing I noticed and that Romney is strong in high-density areas. Whether that's "Just because" or because he specifically targets them, I don't know. In New Hampshire, all along the east side was Romney territory, and some of those precincts were HEAVY in population, so one precinct giving him a few thousand votes skews the rest of the precincts being represented, and makes his win look a lot bigger.

wormyguy
01-11-2012, 04:01 PM
There's one thing I noticed and that Romney is strong in high-density areas. Whether that's "Just because" or because he specifically targets them, I don't know. In New Hampshire, all along the east side was Romney territory, and some of those precincts were HEAVY in population, so one precinct giving him a few thousand votes skews the rest of the precincts being represented, and makes his win look a lot bigger.

Well you can clearly see that Romney did better the closer each town was to the Boston media market. That makes sense, because towns in the Boston media market get the MA news and were subjected to nearly nonstop Romney ads.

Brian4Liberty
01-11-2012, 05:26 PM
A local Iowa Newspaper reports that the certified Washington Wells Precinct results in Appanoose County will include two for Romney, not 22. This is according to Lyle Brinegar, chairman of the Appanoose County GOP. What remains to be seen are the offsetting errors that kept Mitt Romney in the first place position.


2 votes, not 22, to Romney in precinct, county says

Mitt Romney received 20 fewer votes than were reported in a Moulton precinct by the Republican Party of Iowa, the Appanoose County GOP chairman said Friday.

The final count in unofficial results had Iowa caucuses winner Mitt Romney just eight votes ahead of Rick Santorum.

“We stand by the figures that were presented by the Moulton precinct caucus,” said Lyle Brinegar, chairman of the Appanoose County GOP.

Matt Strawn, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, continued to express confidence Friday that the order of finish will not change. He said the party would make no further comment until its two-week vote certification process is complete.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120107/NEWS09/301070034/1007/NEWS05

ZanZibar
01-11-2012, 05:39 PM
Iowa was too close to call really.

Brian4Liberty
01-11-2012, 08:24 PM
Iowa was too close to call really.

Yeah, they should have announced a tie until certification was complete. As it is, and as the propaganda has gone, you'd think that it was a Romney landslide.

musicmax
01-11-2012, 08:32 PM
It's easier to hear the party on the other end of your phone-from-home calls if you take the tinfoil hat off.

Liberty4life
01-11-2012, 08:43 PM
It's easier to hear the party on the other end of your phone-from-home calls if you take the tinfoil hat off.
That was not necessary

Bruno
01-11-2012, 08:46 PM
"Matt Strawn, chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, continued to express confidence Friday that the order of finish will not change. He said the party would make no further comment until its two-week vote certification process is complete."

Same Matt Strawn who "didn't know how to read straw poll results" in Ames. Not to be trusted, imo.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?346805-My-local-talk-radio-call-regarding-Matt-Strawn-s-comment-on-Ron-Paul&p=3964848#post3964848

ryanmkeisling
01-11-2012, 08:51 PM
Think this is bad?

Just the beginning, wait until its 50 states at once, and there are even more ways for fraud and deception.

These are truly socio-pathetic psychopaths that he is up against

Maverick
01-11-2012, 09:02 PM
Yeah, they should have announced a tie until certification was complete. As it is, and as the propaganda has gone, you'd think that it was a Romney landslide.

Exactly.

As far as Iowa is concerned, fraud or no fraud, the race was extremely tight between Romney and Santorum.

If the media were interested in being honest at all, they would acknowledge that Romney essentially tied in IA and stop scoring that "win" for Romney.

QE Is Theft
01-11-2012, 09:04 PM
Our entire voting system is rigged.

Ron Paul alluded to this when discussing the USA's much trumpeted "free and fair elections" line anytime we invade a foreign country.

He said "If only we could get free and fair elections here."

Indeed.

Brian4Liberty
01-11-2012, 09:17 PM
It's easier to hear the party on the other end of your phone-from-home calls if you take the tinfoil hat off.

Matt Strawn I presume?

Brian4Liberty
01-14-2012, 05:02 PM
Three days and counting until the deadline for certified results...


DUNCAN, S.C. – The vote totals from Iowa’s caucuses are changing, putting Mitt Romney’s razor-thin victory in the unofficial tally in doubt, people familiar with events said.

The totals reported just after the Jan. 3 caucuses gave Mr. Romney a narrow, 8-vote win over former Sen. Rick Santorum. Now, officials are reviewing the vote as part of a certification process. Whether Mr. Romney will hold onto his win remains unclear, these people said.

“The numbers are changing,’’ Mr. Santorum said late Friday, in an interview at a campaign event here.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/01/13/iowa-caucus-totals-may-be-shifting/

centure7
01-14-2012, 05:15 PM
That kind of story is exactly the kind of spin we need to win. With Romney being portrayed as the unstoppable chosen one, people won't bother to go to the polls to vote for him and he'll end up losing. So long as it really is spin, its a good story to have out there.

SurfsUp
01-14-2012, 05:49 PM
Ron Paul is tied for first. IT'S ALL ABOUT DELEGATES

Brian4Liberty
01-18-2012, 11:30 AM
It appears we still have to wait for the official results. Will they come out before the SC Primary? Does SC have mail-in or absentee voting?

In the meanwhile, another related story:


Did Rick Santorum Win the Iowa Caucuses, Not Mitt Romney?

by John Avlon Jan 18, 2012 4:45 AM EST

That’s what it looks like if numbers from a caucus in the town of Moulton, Appanoose County, are correctly counted when the official certification begins Wednesday night.

This not only would rewrite the election history of 2012 to date—it would invalidate the oft-repeated line that Mitt Romney is the only candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. It would stop the inevitability narrative in its tracks.
...
The national media to date has largely dismissed this story—which was first reported by local Des Moines station KCCI—apparently choosing to trust the state GOP’s initial off-the-record assurances that the story had zero credibility.

Romney’s electability narrative is centered on the argument that he is the only candidate to have ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire.

...
Here’s what we know happened. On the night of Jan. 3, 53 people gathered at the Washington Wells Precinct in the town of Moulton, population 658, to caucus and cast their first-in-the-nation vote for the Republican nominee.
...
The next day, Edward True was surprised to see the official initial results incorrectly reported on a state-party spreadsheet—giving Romney 22 votes instead of the two votes he actually received at Washington Wells. In addition, and somewhat bizarrely, the former governor of Louisiana, Buddy Roemer—who had dropped out of the GOP primary contest weeks before—received six votes. The number of votes recorded in the precinct totaled 79, instead of the 53 votes actually cast.
...
“Delegate-wise, I understand why they’d say that it wouldn’t change the ultimate outcome,” True said, acknowledging that a numeric vote shift would have minimal impact on delegate allocation. “But media-wise, in terms of momentum and money and attention it matters a lot.”

It does matter a lot. Already, Romney’s electability narrative is centered on the argument that he is the only candidate to have ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire—causing some commentators to say that the nomination battle is all but over, despite only two states having held elections. It takes 1,143 delegates to win the Republican nomination, and to date Romney has just over 20, so the sanguine sense that the Iowa delegate count is likely to remain the same even if the popular vote count changes doesn’t cut it on the credibility front.

Media momentum matters disproportionately in the current system of nominating presidents that we have in place. If the wrong man is declared the winner, even temporarily, it has wide-reaching implications that can’t be entirely undone when the record is corrected.
...
More:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/01/18/did-rick-santorum-win-the-iowa-caucuses-not-mitt-romney.html

Brian4Liberty
01-18-2012, 12:48 PM
Ron Paul is tied for first. IT'S ALL ABOUT DELEGATES

That's a statistic that doesn't make it on the mainstream media.

Brian4Liberty
01-18-2012, 04:03 PM
"Iowa GOP staff is working throughout the day to assist counties and precincts in meeting this requirement by today’s 5 p.m. deadline."

They had two weeks and they are still having trouble reporting their results?

Latest news:


Update on Iowa Caucus Presidential Preference Vote Certification Process
Posted on January 18, 2012 by info@iowagop.org

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Contact: Iowa GOP

January 18, 2012 515-282-8105

Update on Iowa Caucus Presidential Preference Vote Certification Process

Following the closest vote total in the history of the Iowa Caucuses, Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn today provided an update on the vote certification process, timeline for the public release of results, and the availability of certification documents for public inspection.

As noted during the announcement of the Caucus Night vote totals, Iowa GOP rules provide for a 14-day period by which each of Iowa’s 99 counties are required to submit to a Form E document from each of the caucus precincts within the county. The Form E document is the official record of the presidential preference vote in each of Iowa’s 1,774 precincts. The 14-day period sets close of business (5 p.m. CST), Wednesday, January 18 as the deadline for county Republican officials to submit the Form E documents.

Iowa GOP staff is working throughout the day to assist counties and precincts in meeting this requirement by today’s 5 p.m. deadline.

Timeline for Public Release of Results & Inspection of Form E Certification Documents:

The Iowa GOP will publicly release the certified vote totals of the 2012 Republican Caucuses at 8:15 a.m. (CST) on Thursday, January 19. The certified “Form E” precinct documents will then be made available for inspection by presidential campaign representatives at 9:00 a.m. (CST) at the Republican Party of Iowa Headquarters in Des Moines. The certified “Form E” precinct documents will then be made available for inspection by members of the news media starting at 11:00 a.m. (CST).

http://iowagop.org/iowagop/?p=678

Brian4Liberty
01-18-2012, 11:27 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zyfy-AsAjcA

Brian4Liberty
01-19-2012, 11:15 AM
The final results are in: Rick Santorum wins Iowa

Over two weeks of "money, momentum and media" for Mitt Romney, effecting voting in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida (many people in Florida have already mailed in their ballots). This a major bombshell.

You saw it here first... ;)

Brian4Liberty
01-19-2012, 12:21 PM
Certified results for all Precincts available for download in a spreadsheet here:

http://iowagop.org/

Brian4Liberty
01-23-2012, 02:47 PM
Final Summary:

The fact is that the Iowa Caucus process was terribly flawed, for the following reasons:

- Most importantly, the Iowa GOP recklessly and erroneously announced a winner in a race that was too close to call.
- 8 Precincts were disenfranchised.
- "Typo errors" were discovered in 131 Precincts.
- It took over two weeks for an official certification in a race that was too close to call. In a race that is too close to call, this should have occurred in days, if not hours.

Brian4Liberty
02-16-2012, 05:10 PM
Just had to update the final post in this thread for today's relevance:


Final Summary:

The fact is that the Iowa Maine Caucus process was terribly flawed, for the following reasons:

- Most importantly, the Iowa Maine GOP recklessly and erroneously announced a winner in a race that was too close to call.
- 8 Precincts were disenfranchised.
- "Typo errors" were discovered in 131 Precincts.
- It took over two weeks for an official certification in a race that was too close to call. In a race that is too close to call, this should have occurred in days, if not hours.