3rd in Iowa, 2nd in NH, 1st in South Carolina

[Danjlion7]

Could you imagine the psychological impact of Paul in a victory speech ontbe 21st saying, "We got third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire and first in South Carolina. I dont know what the media calls that, but I would call that building momentum!". And the crowd goes wild.

Man, Hollywood couldn't write stuff like that.

It may look difficult, but if Paul can pull a win in SC, his momentum would be unstoppable.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

I don't understand why the gap was so much bigger in New Hampshire. We were only a few % away from Romney in Iowa.

[ronpauldragonborn]

Yep, a win would be awesome. An even closer 2nd then NH would also be good.

[matt0611]

I don't understand why the gap was so much bigger in New Hampshire. We were only a few % away from Romney in Iowa.

Well NH is Romney's home state, he lives there, he was also governor of neighboring massachusetts, and a lot of people from mass move there.

[trey4sports]

prepare yourself to be let down if you think a win in S.C. is possible. I'd be preparing for 4th/5th and be THRILLED with 3rd.

[RileyE104]

I'll take third in SC.. Fourth would be disappointing. Second or winning would be amazing. I believe IT CAN BE DONE with the right ads and campaigning. Hopefully the moneybomb is BIG on the 14th.

[Sola_Fide]

prepare yourself to be let down if you think a win in S.C. is possible. I'd be preparing for 4th/5th and be THRILLED with 3rd.

This^^^

Third would be phenomenal in my opinion.

[Paulistinian]

Let's all donate some money to Ron today and get him a booster for South Carolina. I gave him 50 last night but I can afford to put down another 25 today if someone will match me.

[KingNothing]

3rd in South Carolina is something to shoot for, I think.

[pauladin]

I'll be ecstatic if we make it over 20% in SC.

[braane]

If we don't get at least 2nd in South Carolina, all we have done so far will be lost. Much like anything else, politics is 'what have you done for me lately'. We also need to make it clear that we are the anti-Romney. A 2nd can do that.

[trey4sports]

well, you're going to be very disappointed then because second in S.C. is not going to be easy very realistic.

[Sola_Fide]

If we don't get at least 2nd in South Carolina, all we have done so far will be lost. Much like anything else, politics is 'what have you done for me lately'. We also need to make it clear that we are the anti-Romney. A 2nd can do that.

Nah. I disagree. We have the ability to do great in some of these western states.

[Sola_Fide]

If DeMint endorsed us, we could break into second place.

[RabbitMan]

I think anyone who is both viewing the campaign strategy and the election outlooks seriously understands that we were looking for strong Iowa and new hampshires to give us momentum leading up to nevada and super Tuesday with the caucus states we are banking on. South Carolina and Florida were never really part of the plan, so 3rd and up is all we can hope for realistically.

[VictorB]

Remember that Newt, Perry, and Santorum have all come out saying they are gunning for Romney. They have invested a lot of money in running negative ads towards Romney. We could start creeping up and surprise a lot of people.

[aeiz]

3-2-1... Blast off?

[speciallyblend]

If DeMint endorsed us, we could break into second place.

Sarah Palin needs to grow some balls soon and endorse ron paul in the next 1-3 days.

[KingNothing]

well, you're going to be very disappointed then because second in S.C. is not going to be easy very realistic.

I don't see how we can get second in South Carolina or Florida. Perry, Santorum and Gingrich are all see those states as their last chance. They'll be dumping every penny they have into them, and Romney and Romney PACs have been investing millions there to combat them.

...really, what would Sun Tzu do here? Would he attack well defended position? Why does anyone think Paul will? The campaign will strike in Florida and South Carolina where it feels it can have the most impact, but beyond that it isn't going to suicide itself here like at least two other candidates will.

[Danjlion7]

3-2-1... Blast off?

Exactly. Not sure why everyone is so quick to dismiss a first place finish in SC. It is possible.

[JK/SEA]

CNN shill sez Ron is 12% in SC?...damn...just yesterday i saw 9...looks like i better pay attention to SC now.

[KingNothing]

I think anyone who is both viewing the campaign strategy and the election outlooks seriously understands that we were looking for strong Iowa and new hampshires to give us momentum leading up to nevada and super Tuesday with the caucus states we are banking on. South Carolina and Florida were never really part of the plan, so 3rd and up is all we can hope for realistically.

Exactly.

If we look at this all objectively, you have to see that the campaign wants to play strong in the caucus states and probably hit Mitt in two or three big states where he will probably be weak - Pennsylvania and Texas. As the other candidates fall off and this breaks down into a Paul versus Mittens campaign, the electorate will remember why they hate Romney so much - he's a vapid, empty, plastic shell.

[Sola_Fide]

Sarah Palin needs to grow some balls soon and endorse ron paul in the next 1-3 days.

Pffftt. If she endorses anybody it will probably be Newt.

[bluesc]

well, you're going to be very disappointed then because second in S.C. is not going to be easy very realistic.

2nd is a possibility. Ron is a fighter, and Newt, Santorum and Romney are all going to blow a lot of money in SC tearing eachother down. If we can slip in with positive ads we can have a strong 3rd, or a modest 2nd. A DeMint endorsement would help a lot. ZanZibar keeps telling us to watch DeMint on freedom watch any time "endorsement" is mentioned, so I'll be sure to do that.

[archlinux]

Let's all donate some money to Ron today and get him a booster for South Carolina. I gave him 50 last night but I can afford to put down another 25 today if someone will match me.



Matched



Thank you!

Thank you for your generous donation!

Amount: $25.00
Transaction ID: 331498048
Transaction date/time: 2012-01-11 10:10:15

[braane]

Nah. I disagree. We have the ability to do great in some of these western states.

It isn't really about what we can do later... It's about Romney. If he wins the first 3 states and doesn't have a clear challenger, just a bunch of candidates jockeying for 2nd, then people will anoint him.

I am talking from a point of being the anti-Romney. You can't finish 3rd and talk about being the anti-Romney. If we want to keep the narrative of a 2 man race then we need to be finishing at least second, or else it doesn't make sense.

[JK/SEA]

Somebody remind me why i don't like DeMint..i forgot.

[jmdrake]

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2012-01-06-Blumenthal-scchart120106.png

I was telling people Santorum wasn't done in Iowa and we had to worry about South Carolina. We've got the material to take him down now and the time. Gingrich seemed unbeatable once too. (And while Gingrich is dropping in S.C. he needs to drop some more).

[KingNothing]

It isn't really about what we can do later... It's about Romney. If he wins the first 3 states and doesn't have a clear challenger, just a bunch of candidates jockeying for 2nd, then people will anoint him.

But that won't stick, because we'll continue competing in the 47 other states and every other territory. If Romney wins, he'll have to campaign to the bitter end to do so. The Liberty Message will be getting ever increasing play over the airwaves and in the media if we keep the campaign's coffers full.

[limequat]

SC is totally in play. Newt will make SC his last stand and he has a few million to spend. Looks like he's going to spend it bashing Romney. This is fine, as Newt voters hate RP. Newt and Mitt can split the establishment vote (Newt gets as many Liberal votes in SC as he does Conservative). RP needs to take the evangelical/conservative vote from Santorum and Perry.

If newt is sucessfull, he may pull Romney down to 25% and match it. That would be ideal. If RP can take half of Santorum's and Perry's support, he's right there in 1st place. Part of this will be the natural evolution of the strong showing in NH. The rest will be grassroots action and official campaign ads.

Oh, ignore the PPP final results (but study the crosstabs). They showed RP at 5% in the 18-29 age group. They pulled the same bullshit in IA before they started releasing accurate polls. Truth is, we were probably closer to 15% BEFORE NH.

The first polls that show the NH bump will likely show a 3 or 4 man tie for 1st - depending on whether or not Santorum is still in. Hold on to your hats, it's going to be fun ride!

[freejack]

Remember that Newt, Perry, and Santorum have all come out saying they are gunning for Romney. They have invested a lot of money in running negative ads towards Romney. We could start creeping up and surprise a lot of people.

As long as they don't attack Ron, I think it may be a good strategy for him to just air positive commercials in SC. Will allow him to stand out above the negativity for a change.

[Sola_Fide]

Somebody remind me why i don't like DeMint..i forgot.

Because he comes so close to us and then does something to disappoint us.

[eok321]

I don't understand why the gap was so much bigger in New Hampshire. We were only a few % away from Romney in Iowa.

Have a look at the votes that Romney got off all the Massholes down in south east NH and Massachussets bordering counties which are heavily populated. The place is full of Romneybots. Ron kicked ass in the west:)

http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

[limequat]

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2012-01-06-Blumenthal-scchart120106.png

I was telling people Santorum wasn't done in Iowa and we had to worry about South Carolina. We've got the material to take him down now and the time. Gingrich seemed unbeatable once too. (And while Gingrich is dropping in S.C. he needs to drop some more).

A slight Gingrich resurgence would be favorable to us. We don't get Grinch voters, Mitt does. Let them fight it out, we need the Santorum voters.
Overall, the campaign needs to work on favorability in SC. Paul is not very well liked at the moment. Need to bring that up, and let the other guys go negative on each other.

[tremendoustie]

I think it's time for Ron to go after Santorum hard, especially in SC. Newt's dead in the water -- once we clear santorum out it'll be down to Mitt & Us.

[JohnGalt23g]

prepare yourself to be let down if you think a win in S.C. is possible. I'd be preparing for 4th/5th and be THRILLED with 3rd.

Agreed. I'll be happy if we can avoid the coming bloodbath in SC between Gingrich, Romney and Perry. And finish with a respectable showing.

[limequat]

As long as they don't attack Ron, I think it may be a good strategy for him to just air positive commercials in SC. Will allow him to stand out above the negativity for a change.

+ rep if I could. I agree 100%

[KingNothing]

I think it's time for Ron to go after Santorum hard, especially in SC.

He has been. He'll continue to do so too, I'm sure.

[KingNothing]

+ rep if I could. I agree 100%

I'd air positive ads, and ads that show Santorum's track record. I'm sure that's what they'll continue to do.

[tremendoustie]

He has been. He'll continue to do so too, I'm sure.

Good! Then I agree with their strategy. Official campaign is on the ball this time IMO.

[trey4sports]

2nd is a possibility. Ron is a fighter, and Newt, Santorum and Romney are all going to blow a lot of money in SC tearing eachother down. If we can slip in with positive ads we can have a strong 3rd, or a modest 2nd. A DeMint endorsement would help a lot. ZanZibar keeps telling us to watch DeMint on freedom watch any time "endorsement" is mentioned, so I'll be sure to do that.


that would be great, but i have this feeling that dude is blowing smoke up our ass on that one.

[Sarge]

What a bunch of negativity instead of how we get the votes.

Here was the 2008 numbers,

"John McCain 143,224 33.2% 19
Mike Huckabee 128,908 29.9 5
Fred D. Thompson 67,897 15.7 0
Mitt Romney 64,970 15.1 0
Ron Paul 15,773 3.7 0
Rudolph W. Giuliani 9,112 2.1 0
Duncan Hunter 1,035 0.2 0
Tom Tancredo 115 0.0 0
Others 162 0.0 0 "

Figure out how we get the Hucksters and Thompson votes this go around along with some of McCains and Rudy's.

Ron is way more popular than in 2008 and I think polls will show that soon.

Mitt hasn't got a better track record since 2008.

[abstrusezincate]

I don't know what to expect from SC, but if we finish fourth or worse, it will be near impossible to recover to any chance of nomination. People vote for winners.

The good news is third or even second should be doable. SC will act like IA in that the vote for the social cons will probably coalesce around one of the three. Romney gets his. We get ours. If that vote is fragmented enough and we build momentum, second might be possible.

But this isn't easy.

[Travlyr]

There is no need to dismiss a 1st place finish in South Carolina... realistic or not. First place finishers never target 3rd place.

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

It's good we did bad in 2008, now we can go nowhere but up. If we did good in 2008 and do not so good this year, it would have looked worse. Keeping my fingers crossed though, we got plenty of time to "surge"!!!

[KingNothing]

Good! Then I agree with their strategy. Official campaign is on the ball this time IMO.

I think they've run it perfect from the get-go.

Remember, people were calling for them to attack Huntsman in NH. That was silly, and attacking Santorum in Iowa would have been silly too. Nothing would have stopped the preachers and the party from asking the undecideds to rally around a non-Romney, non-Paul candidate. Of all candidates that might have been, Santorum was the best for us.

In South Carolina, it's a bit different. We can hopefully peal some votes from Santorum there, and cut his campaign off at that state. Newt will effectively limit Romney and try to prop his own campaign up at Mitten's expense, and Perry will make his last stand there in a most ineffectual manner. We'll see how it plays out, but the Paul campaign has been perfect thus far. I see no reason to doubt them now.

[bluesc]

that would be great, but i have this feeling that dude is blowing smoke up our ass on that one.

Check the latest thread on DeMint. Was talking up Ron on SC radio.

[PaleoPaul]

I think our goal should be to beat Gingrich. If we beat him, he has no choice BUT to drop out. I mean, he'll have lost to the 2 guys he hates the most (Paul and Romney), in a state that he's been aiming for the most!

[asurfaholic]

I am cautiously optimistic about SC. I feel that 2nd is most certainly doable, and 3rd is most likely. If we do take 4th, it will be super close, and I doubt it would hurt our momentum much. However, there are so many people here who scream bloody murder and start professing that there is no hope. We can't have that, FL will be a tough time, but after that the race is in Ron's court. We got to hold it together.

Btw... ron paul is asking for 10Million for the upcoming states, how are we going to get it to him? I just bought a new hoodie and some signs and stickers. Another donation after this week (house payment comes first).

[hueylong]

3rd, and/or 20% would be great.

[jay_dub]

There's only so much a campaign can do, but no one is operating in a vacuum. Expect the deck to get re-shuffled after NH. RP has momentum going into SC and he needs to be seen having momentum coming out of there. It's really time for some endorsements. If RP can't get some now, he never will and this will have to remain a grass roots movement from here on out.

[parocks]

At some time, Romney will have to be addressed.

[smtwngrl]

prepare yourself to be let down if you think a win in S.C. is possible. I'd be preparing for 4th/5th and be THRILLED with 3rd.

There's nothing wrong with aiming high is SC (as long as we aren't crushed by getting lower than we might like). We were in 4th before the NH primary, so there's no earthly reason we should expect 4th or less.

Remember the template Doug Wead talked about. The template they applied in Iowa, which worked so well, would also be applied in SC. They have started to, and will continue to do, that.

And consider also, the favorable response of South Carolinans to Ron Paul's speech last night.

We should expect at least 3rd, and aim for 2nd or 1st.

[ThePiousPriest]

If we want first, we must push hard, taking absolutely no prisoners or offering no quarter. The GOP establishment here HATES Ron Paul, but many folks here hate the establishment GOP. South Carolina can be won, but we must give everything we have to do so.

[Carehn]

There is no need to dismiss a 1st place finish in South Carolina... realistic or not. First place finishers never target 3rd place.

Thats right! We play to win!

[Steve-in-NY]

Gimme some 23% of SC to start! Onward!

[InTradePro]

http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2012-01-06-Blumenthal-scchart120106.png

I was telling people Santorum wasn't done in Iowa and we had to worry about South Carolina. We've got the material to take him down now and the time. Gingrich seemed unbeatable once too. (And while Gingrich is dropping in S.C. he needs to drop some more).

This graph is a little dated. Santorum peaked shortly after Iowa and had been slightly declining since. For example PPP had Santorum back down to 19% on January 5-7 poll.
Anticipate a Dr Paul climb and a Santorum and Gingrich fall to be shown in polls over the next week. Whether Dr Paul can get into 3rd I'm not sure, but the figured will be nearer in a week from now then those posted in the above graph.

[Danjlion7]

See guys, I told you it could be done! First in south Carolina!!!!!

[Danjlion7]

Bump.