UtahApocalypse
01-11-2012, 09:38 AM
After performing an initial analysis of actual votes it has become clear this is a two person race. With the first caucus and primary now behind us over 300k votes have been cast for the GOP nomination. Looking at these real votes a few things are now certain. First off the obvious; Mitt Romney is running in first place with just over 35% of the total votes and first place finishes in both elections.
Beyond first place though the numbers get much more interesting. Looking at the real votes total everything is not as the media would make it to be. Based on the actual votes Romney is followed by Paul, Santorum, Huntsman, Gingrich and lastly Perry. The biggest surprise here is that Ron Paul is in second place with 23% of total votes and a full 8% ahead of Rick Santorum in third. In interesting point though is only Romney and Paul have come in the top three in both races so far.
Another factor to look at is that New Hampshire where Ron Paul took second place accounts for 67% of the total votes. Rick Santorum's second place finish in Iowa was only 33% of the vote total. Not that the votes of someone in one state or the other are more valuable but a second place in New Hampshire took much more votes than than in Iowa.
Currently the GOP nomination race is that of Romney, and the Anti-Romney. Based on the analysis of the first two races it appears that Ron Paul, and not one of the other media darlings is consistently able to compete against Romney. Also looking at the numbers it looks like Gingrich, Huntsman, and Perry need to drop out at this time and support Ron Paul as they are splitting the Anti-Romney vote and have not finished in the top three in either race.
http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa299/Utah4RonPaul/Ron%20Paul%20-%202012/VotePercentPie2.png
http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa299/Utah4RonPaul/Ron%20Paul%20-%202012/VoteTotal2.jpg
(I am thinking of making this into a yahoo article so any advice would be appreciated)
Beyond first place though the numbers get much more interesting. Looking at the real votes total everything is not as the media would make it to be. Based on the actual votes Romney is followed by Paul, Santorum, Huntsman, Gingrich and lastly Perry. The biggest surprise here is that Ron Paul is in second place with 23% of total votes and a full 8% ahead of Rick Santorum in third. In interesting point though is only Romney and Paul have come in the top three in both races so far.
Another factor to look at is that New Hampshire where Ron Paul took second place accounts for 67% of the total votes. Rick Santorum's second place finish in Iowa was only 33% of the vote total. Not that the votes of someone in one state or the other are more valuable but a second place in New Hampshire took much more votes than than in Iowa.
Currently the GOP nomination race is that of Romney, and the Anti-Romney. Based on the analysis of the first two races it appears that Ron Paul, and not one of the other media darlings is consistently able to compete against Romney. Also looking at the numbers it looks like Gingrich, Huntsman, and Perry need to drop out at this time and support Ron Paul as they are splitting the Anti-Romney vote and have not finished in the top three in either race.
http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa299/Utah4RonPaul/Ron%20Paul%20-%202012/VotePercentPie2.png
http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa299/Utah4RonPaul/Ron%20Paul%20-%202012/VoteTotal2.jpg
(I am thinking of making this into a yahoo article so any advice would be appreciated)