PDA

View Full Version : 2nd Place in South Carolina.




vf2012
01-11-2012, 03:18 AM
There is a strong case to make for Ron Paul finishing second in South Carolina.


Please look here for reference:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

1. Gingrich appears to be digging himself into a hole. The spat with Romney is not helping and is showing everyone Newt's ugly side. Romney can finish Newt. Lobbying scandal and adultery issues will hurt Newt even more.
End of November, early December the Grinch was polling above 40 percent in SC. Then about mid December he was polling around 31 percent in SC. After an uninspiring 13 percent in Iowa, Newt is polling around 20 percent in the beginning of January; a significant drop. And now with an even less inspiring performance of 10 percent in New Hampshire, Gingrich is looking more and more like a sinking ship. I wouldn't be surprised if Gingrich begins to poll below 15 percent in post NH polls.
Gingrich continues sinking lower in SC in wake of poor Iowa and NH results. Drops to polling around 15 percent.


2. Perry is done. Perry has been sinking since polling as high as 36 percent in SC in August. He recently polled at 5 percent! Clearly South Carolina Republicans are not impressed. He was weak in the Iowa results, and of course his NH result is abysmal. While some people here are worried about a Perry surge, I think Perry may be beyond saving in SC.(Too many oops moments make him look like a clown).
Perry may do better than 5 percent in SC, but a Perry surge into double digits may not be possible.

3. Santorum can be easily exposed for the big government hypocrite that he is and no doubt this is where Ron Paul needs to strike during the debates. Let Romney take out Gingrich.
Take a look at Frothy's poll numbers. He was ROCKETED in SC after his strong showing in Iowa. Went from polling below 5 percent, and as low as 1 percent, to almost overnight polling as high as 24 percent. We all know Santorum was not a serious candidate until his "Surge". His last place finish in New Hampshire (Perry almost doesn't count) should stifle some of the enthusiasm for Frothy and possibly drop him closer to polling around 15 percent.
Santorum may lose support and drop to polling around 15 percent.

4. Huntsman supposedly lost in a poll to Stephen Colbert. Will the NH third place finish boost Huntsman in SC? It may not be his state but I think its reasonable that Huntsman can gain a bit of ground, but more from the media inspired Huntsman surge than the actual result. The question is, whose votes does Huntsman take? Romney?
Huntsman rises by a few percent in SC polls, taking away from Romney but not enough to put Huntsman into double digits.

5. Romney. Romney will probably win again though this depends on which candidates surge and which sink.

6. Ron Paul. Currently Ron Paul is polling around ten percent in SC. This does not take into account the strong second place finish in NH. Also Paul now has two solid 20 percent + showings in a row. If Paul gets even half the boost that Santorum got in the SC Polls after coming in second in Iowa, we could see Ron Paul polling close to twenty percent. Even a modest boost up to 5 percent solely off the momentum from NH will put Ron Paul very close to second place.
If Romney goes after Gingrich, and Gingrich helps by showing his ugly side, Ron Paul needs only to take down Santorum by exposing him as a big government hypocrite hiding behind social conservative issues. Paul also needs to talk about gun rights, national id card stance, discuss states rights issues, tactfully advertise the fact that he is a veteran, etc. (don't mention states' rights by name as it can get you in trouble- happened to Perry). Huntsman and Perry can continue to play the outsider looking in role but neither will probably break into double digits.

I could be completely wrong here, but I seem to think that Perry will not be resurrected as the Anti-Romney candidate. I think Ron Paul has a strong chance to take second in South Carolina, which will only continue his momentum and raise his prospects in Florida.
There will be two debates in South Carolina. If Ron Paul does very well by tailoring his message a bit to appeal to SC voters, he may have a real shot at first.

There is the chance that we could see another media inflated surge but as influential as the media is, they may have simply exhausted their ability to do this.

Naturally I want Ron Paul to win SC. I think that working on 2nd place is quite realistic at the moment.

Agorism
01-11-2012, 03:19 AM
It would cement Paul as the permanent anti-Romney.

That's why putting resources into SC is very worthwhile even if we would get no delegates for 2nd.

kah13176
01-11-2012, 03:20 AM
In every case that we've seen a candidate put all their resources into a state, we've seen the media pump them considerably.

- Iowa: Santorum
- NH: Huntsman

So you shouldn't write Perry off.

vf2012
01-11-2012, 03:30 AM
Also Paul got 3.7 percent in SC in 2008.
Now polling almost three times higher.
As far as Perry, I don't think that even the media can sell him.
Its easier to boost a relative unknown, than to try to boost someone who was a front runner in SC and has sunk to polling at 5 percent. Perry seems to be his own worst enemy.

kah13176
01-11-2012, 03:33 AM
It would cement Paul as the permanent anti-Romney.

That's why putting resources into SC is very worthwhile even if we would get no delegates for 2nd.

This is true as long as we can also pull second in Florida.

Aratus
01-11-2012, 03:36 AM
we might end up just underneath mitt romney consistantly in some of the earlier primaries, so another second place finish is not out of reach!

RPit
01-11-2012, 03:45 AM
I personally think we can win SC. Hopefully some new polling will come out so we get an idea how much a bump we got from NH. But I'll be posting tomorrow about topics and their answers to drive home especially in debates that'll really woo alot of people..

randomname
01-11-2012, 04:17 AM
2nd in SC would be HUGE

papitosabe
01-11-2012, 04:35 AM
So you shouldn't write Perry off.

I don't know about Perry, but I tell you what, what I do know is that the gov't is spending too much in Washington.

papitosabe
01-11-2012, 04:47 AM
So you shouldn't write Perry off.

I don't know about Perry, but I tell you what, what I do know is that the gov't is spending too much in Washington.