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View Full Version : The first time the polls underestimated our support




kylejack
01-10-2012, 09:31 PM
There was a theory last cycle that the polls were wrong. By and large they were proved to be roughly correct. We were within MOE of most of the final polls. They were even basically correct in Iowa this cycle.

This is the first time they got it wrong.

http://i.imgur.com/qr9uC.png

With 73% reporting, it's

Romney 38
Paul 24
Huntsman 17
Santorum 10
Gingrich 10
Perry 1

Maybe we're finally reaching a tipping point and are finally getting through to people who don't often vote, making it harder to measure our support.

UtahApocalypse
01-10-2012, 09:33 PM
this is an awesome point

Legend1104
01-10-2012, 09:33 PM
Yeah and realize only once was he ever pollng close to his actual numbers.

Maybe the college students being out of college during the caucus actually did hurt us. I didn't think of it at the time, but remember that there was supposed to be a lot of them gone. Just a thought.

kylejack
01-10-2012, 09:36 PM
From the exit polls, http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2012/new-hampshire/republican/primary/#.Tw0Dhflh3LF

http://i.imgur.com/AkBrk.png

First time voters were 12% of the electorate and we took 40% of them. Much of our future work should be focused on finding ways to get new voters into the booth, where we own them.

RileyE104
01-10-2012, 09:38 PM
Well, to be fair the Washington Times from 1/4 was fairly accurate except for Huntsman.

kylejack
01-10-2012, 09:39 PM
Well, to be fair the Washington Times from 1/4 was fairly accurate except for Huntsman.
Yes, we should dig in to that poll and see what the crosstabs were. It may contain some clues into where our strength is.