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View Full Version : Any word on voter turn out?




newbitech
01-10-2012, 07:50 PM
Just looking at the numbers from CNN, it looks like the turnout is lower than expected. Maybe 20-30k lower.

bbartlog
01-10-2012, 07:59 PM
Low turnout helps us, in general. Phone from home = 60+% turnout for our voters. If everyone else is demoralized (and everyone except us and Romney's supporters should be, after tonight) and their turnout starts dropping below the 15% or so that is typical for early primaries, that's all to the good.

newbitech
01-10-2012, 08:06 PM
Totally agree, I am watching the trend here to see if Romney caps out again in N.H. like he did in Iowa. So far, my crystal ball says,

Romney is picking up <1% more voters in N.H. from 2008 (He actually lost 6 voters in Iowa heh) HE HAS AN OBVIOUS CEILING
Paul is picking up a whopping 160% more voters in N.H. from 2008 (in Iowa he more than doubled) PAUL IS ALMOST TRIPPLING HIS SUPPORT IN 4 YEARS!

If this is based on low turnout, then the base is definitely shifting, which means Ron Paul has HUGE upside potential in the General. Could also mean that Romney's soft support thinks he has it in the bag, and he is failing to inspire.