boneyard bill
01-10-2012, 06:36 PM
I thought I'd put this up before the results come in because that a lot of people are going to be sweating bullets over this, but it really isn't necessary. Paul has a lock on third, is favored to finish second and could, conceivably, even pick up an upset victory. That's a good place to be in.
Back in the sixties I recall reading about reporters who were asking the Nixon people about New York Mayor John Lindsay who was being talked about as a possible GOP nominee. Lindsay was a Republican uber-liberal who had won in heavily-Democrat New York City. The Nixon people dismissed Lindsay as a 'media creation.' Lindsay was very liberal, very handsome, and a good speaker, but he has no grass roots support among Republicans elsewhere in the country. He won mostly by attracting black voters who were anxious to toss out the predominantly white Democrat Old Guard. But the media loved him and being from New York was, for them, a big plus.
But the fact is that all these candidates who have come and gone in this race are nothing more than media creations and none moreso than John Huntsman. Regardless of where he finishes in New Hampshire, Huntsman is going no where. But he is the candidate in this race that most reflects the liberal media biases so he is the most popular of the lot.
Unlike in the sixties, however, there is a conservative media as well. There is Fox News, and there is talk radio. But whether liberal or conservative, these outlets all promote almost anybody except Ron Paul. Since he doesn't fit the mold, not even the opposite of what they believe, he is regarded as a kook who has no chance of winning. Since he cannot be controlled, he also a threat to this same media which depends heavily on its establishment connections.
But the media isn't the grass roots. This has always been a race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, and it will remain so. They are the only candidates with adequate funds. They are the only candidates with a really professional staff. They are the only candidates with a nation-wide organization.
Romney has more money, but Ron Paul has more grass-roots volunteers. This is another Wall Street vs. Main Street campaign like the Dewey-Taft race of 1948. A third place finish will be good enough to give Ron continuing momentum for South Carolina. Sure, I'd rather finish first, but that's not the essential point. The important part of this campaign will take place when Ron Paul goes head-to-head with Romney. So far Romney has shown a ceiling of about 25%. The Ron Paul "ceiling" is really non-existant. So far it has moved up from 10% to 20%. The question is where all those voters who have been voting for the latest media creation will go when the other candidates have dropped out?
Certainly, I'm not predicting that they will go to Ron Paul but some of them will. Certainly, they've shown an aversion to Romney so far. Paul's 'ceiling' will go higher. But my main point is that that is when the real race will begin.
Back in the sixties I recall reading about reporters who were asking the Nixon people about New York Mayor John Lindsay who was being talked about as a possible GOP nominee. Lindsay was a Republican uber-liberal who had won in heavily-Democrat New York City. The Nixon people dismissed Lindsay as a 'media creation.' Lindsay was very liberal, very handsome, and a good speaker, but he has no grass roots support among Republicans elsewhere in the country. He won mostly by attracting black voters who were anxious to toss out the predominantly white Democrat Old Guard. But the media loved him and being from New York was, for them, a big plus.
But the fact is that all these candidates who have come and gone in this race are nothing more than media creations and none moreso than John Huntsman. Regardless of where he finishes in New Hampshire, Huntsman is going no where. But he is the candidate in this race that most reflects the liberal media biases so he is the most popular of the lot.
Unlike in the sixties, however, there is a conservative media as well. There is Fox News, and there is talk radio. But whether liberal or conservative, these outlets all promote almost anybody except Ron Paul. Since he doesn't fit the mold, not even the opposite of what they believe, he is regarded as a kook who has no chance of winning. Since he cannot be controlled, he also a threat to this same media which depends heavily on its establishment connections.
But the media isn't the grass roots. This has always been a race between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, and it will remain so. They are the only candidates with adequate funds. They are the only candidates with a really professional staff. They are the only candidates with a nation-wide organization.
Romney has more money, but Ron Paul has more grass-roots volunteers. This is another Wall Street vs. Main Street campaign like the Dewey-Taft race of 1948. A third place finish will be good enough to give Ron continuing momentum for South Carolina. Sure, I'd rather finish first, but that's not the essential point. The important part of this campaign will take place when Ron Paul goes head-to-head with Romney. So far Romney has shown a ceiling of about 25%. The Ron Paul "ceiling" is really non-existant. So far it has moved up from 10% to 20%. The question is where all those voters who have been voting for the latest media creation will go when the other candidates have dropped out?
Certainly, I'm not predicting that they will go to Ron Paul but some of them will. Certainly, they've shown an aversion to Romney so far. Paul's 'ceiling' will go higher. But my main point is that that is when the real race will begin.