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wstrucke
01-09-2012, 11:16 PM
Because.. why not. Any predictions? Personally I hope we can pull a surprise first place due to the number of independents in New Hampshire.

Sublyminal
01-09-2012, 11:18 PM
Because.. why not. Any predictions? Personally I hope we can pull a surprise first place due to the number of independents in New Hampshire.


I believe we can too, IF and only IF we can keep the Huntsman and Frothy surges down. Romney has clearly fallen off especially with the "I like to fire people" quote going viral. Gingrich is a non-factor, same with Perry.

Sentinelrv
01-09-2012, 11:19 PM
You beat the Collins to it. Quick, make it official before it's too late!

Razmear
01-09-2012, 11:21 PM
17% in Dixville Notch. Now it's an official thread.

slamhead
01-09-2012, 11:22 PM
Until it has the seal of "Official" I say good luck...:)

Dsylexic
01-09-2012, 11:23 PM
after our luck with the iowa thread,collins should take a break and let others start the official thread this time!

JulioForPaul
01-09-2012, 11:24 PM
Romney 35%
Paul 23%
Huntsman 16%
Gingrich 15%
Santorum 9%
Perry 1%
Buddy 1%

zweezey
01-09-2012, 11:30 PM
Look at it this way. The worst we could do is 3rd, and the best we could do is second. First is out of the question. The only candidate who threatens us in NH is huntsman. If the news of his recent surge is true, then we might be in for another disappointment similar to iowa-

coffeewithgames
01-09-2012, 11:32 PM
Look at it this way. The worst we could do is 3rd, and the best we could do is second. First is out of the question. The only candidate who threatens us in NH is huntsman. If the news of his recent surge is true, then we might be in for another disappointment similar to iowa-

Which is 100% unacceptable for a campaign that is "in it to win it." and has MILLIONS of dollars. Many around here called the Santorum surge, as it was apparent from how the media was talking about him. Many predicted the same treatment with Huntsman, and it appears the media enjoys giving positive free air time to candidates, as long as it is not RP. Why the campaign has not sunk the other campaigns fully, is beyond me.

doronster195
01-09-2012, 11:32 PM
First is not out of the question...

Second is most likely though.

playpianoking
01-09-2012, 11:35 PM
Fox says it's tied 2-2 on the home page between Romney and Huntsman. What does that mean??

eok321
01-09-2012, 11:36 PM
We'll get 2nd comfortably.

An undecided choosing between Ron and Jon will be left with no alternative when they see Jon couldn't compete in Iowa and has nowhere to go nationally.

Sublyminal
01-09-2012, 11:36 PM
Fox says it's tied 2-2 on the home page between Romney and Huntsman. What does that mean??


That they removed Paul again.

rp2012win
01-09-2012, 11:37 PM
Fox says it's tied 2-2 on the home page between Romney and Huntsman. What does that mean??only 6 votes were cast on the republican side. However, the headlines of a 2-2 tie will certainly sway undecideds in the morning because this vote will be talked about all day. Those 6 people could have a pretty big impact on the election.

Aratus
01-09-2012, 11:38 PM
hart's and dixville results are in! romney has an early lead if you add both results together.

playpianoking
01-09-2012, 11:41 PM
2-2 as in 4 people ?? lol This is a mockery. Fox News: Breaking: 2 people go Romney and 2 go Huntsman. What a f*#@*# joke.

zweezey
01-09-2012, 11:43 PM
2-2 as in 4 people ?? lol This is a mockery. Fox News: Breaking: 2 people go Romney and 2 go Huntsman. What a f*#@*# joke.

lol

BuddyRey
01-09-2012, 11:45 PM
Are there any great live vote tallying widgets up yet?

playpianoking
01-09-2012, 11:45 PM
Remember that article saying how Paul may have secretly won Iowa because the supporters stayed around to vote on delegates? I've heard people saying they each got 6 delegates. I was confused because I thought there were 25 delegates. MSNBC shows Romney and Santorum each got 11 delegates and Paul got 3. So much for that article.

mwkaufman
01-09-2012, 11:45 PM
Dixville Notch Republican Primary

33% Huntsman
33% Romney
17% Gingrich
17% Paul

Jon Huntsman surging!

Hart's Location Republican Primary

38% Romney
31% Paul
15% Huntsman
8% Gingrich
8% Perry

Total Votes

7 Romney (37%)
5 Paul (26%)
4 Huntsman (21%)
2 Gingrich (11%)
1 Perry (5%)

Santorum wins zero of the first nineteen votes.

mwkaufman
01-09-2012, 11:45 PM
Remember that article saying how Paul may have secretly won Iowa because the supporters stayed around to vote on delegates? I've heard people saying they each got 6 delegates. I was confused because I thought there were 25 delegates. MSNBC shows Romney and Santorum each got 11 delegates and Paul got 3. So much for that article.

Those are projections, the delegates won't get selected until June IIRC.

playpianoking
01-09-2012, 11:47 PM
Are there any great live vote tallying widgets up yet?no not yet, not even on google. probably because 19 people voted thus far.

TheViper
01-09-2012, 11:47 PM
Remember that article saying how Paul may have secretly won Iowa because the supporters stayed around to vote on delegates? I've heard people saying they each got 6 delegates. I was confused because I thought there were 25 delegates. MSNBC shows Romney and Santorum each got 11 delegates and Paul got 3. So much for that article.
All delegate tabulations right now are merely projections. NO national delegates have actually been selected yet. That won't happen for another couple of months.

playpianoking
01-09-2012, 11:48 PM
Those are projections, the delegates won't get selected until June IIRC. Oh ok gotcha! :)

Havax
01-09-2012, 11:52 PM
Dixville Notch Republican Primary

33% Huntsman
33% Romney
17% Gingrich
17% Paul

Jon Huntsman surging!

Hart's Location Republican Primary

38% Romney
31% Paul
15% Huntsman
8% Gingrich
8% Perry

Total Votes

7 Romney (37%)
5 Paul (26%)
4 Huntsman (21%)
2 Gingrich (11%)
1 Perry (5%)

Santorum wins zero of the first nineteen votes.

Where are you getting this information?

jersdream
01-09-2012, 11:54 PM
Where are you getting this information?

http://livewire.wmur.com/Event/New_Hampshire_Primary_Election_Results

J_White
01-09-2012, 11:55 PM
results already coming in ? :eek:

Havax
01-09-2012, 11:55 PM
Race is too close to call!

jersdream
01-09-2012, 11:59 PM
results already coming in ? :eek:

Only the two midnight voting towns.

Aratus
01-09-2012, 11:59 PM
if the percentages hold steady in the next 24 hours--- is this to be a 5, 4, 3 split in terms of delegates for the top three?
if mitt romney has five delegates in tampa from N.H and dr. ron paul has four to huntsman's three... i will not be in shock!

ronpaulitician
01-09-2012, 11:59 PM
The realist and pessimist in me are already having trouble containing the optimist.

Go, Paul. Go, New Hampshire. Go, liberty.

WIwarrior
01-10-2012, 12:00 AM
Ron wins 1st. Im very optimistic.

playpianoking
01-10-2012, 12:15 AM
Prediction: Romney: 33%, Paul 20%, Huntsman 17%, Gingrich 11%, Santorum 11%, Roemer 3%, Perry 1%

jordie
01-10-2012, 12:28 AM
This was great for Iowa: http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

Is there anything like that for New Hampshire?

Esoteric
01-10-2012, 12:32 AM
Romney: 35% Paul: 23% Huntsman: 19% Gingrich: 12% Santorum: 9% Perry: 2% Roemer: 1%

Dsylexic
01-10-2012, 12:34 AM
romey 31 paul 22 hunstman 18

Karsten
01-10-2012, 12:39 AM
This is not my prediction, but would be nice to see something like:

Paul 28
Romney 27
Hunstman 24

So long as in the end Paul beats Hunstman, I embrace his surge because it seems like he takes votes from Romney and that is very important right now.

Santorum took more votes away from us in Iowa than Hunstman would in NH.

Esoteric
01-10-2012, 12:43 AM
This is not my prediction, but would be nice to see something like:

Paul 28
Romney 27
Hunstman 24

So long as in the end Paul beats Hunstman, I embrace his surge because it seems like he takes votes from Romney and that is very important right now.

Santorum took more votes away from us in Iowa than Hunstman would in NH.

I think it's realistic for us to get within 5 points of romney (30-25), at the VERY best. I think that would be a HUGE victory.

JJ2
01-10-2012, 12:44 AM
How come no campaign ever tries to win over Dixville and Hart's? If one candidate got every vote (or close to it), that would give them great headlines!

Blue_Merle
01-10-2012, 12:44 AM
Number 1: Just because the Collins dude said it don't make it true. Official my ass.

Number 2: Results will be as follows:

Romney - 29%
Huntsman - 18%
Paul - 17%
Sanitorum - 17%
Gingrich - 9%
Perry - 4%
Cain - .5%

coffeewithgames
01-10-2012, 12:45 AM
I'm just wondering something...if John McCain won New Hampshire 4 years ago, why can't RP's campaign win first 4 years later, leaving MR in second like 4 years ago?

I seriously hope the campaign is dropping MILLIONS in South Carolina, because if we don't get a 1st in either New Hampshire or SC, curtains it is....

JJ2
01-10-2012, 12:48 AM
Here's my "official" prediction that I posted last night (although I'm feeling more confident tonight):

Mitt Romney: 36%

Ron Paul: 24%

Jon Huntsman, Jr.: 20%

Rick Santorum: 10%

Newt Gingrich: 8%

Rick Perry: 1%

Others: 1%

Karsten
01-10-2012, 12:49 AM
I think it's realistic for us to get within 5 points of romney (30-25), at the VERY best. I think that would be a HUGE victory.
I would be completely happy with 2nd as long as 3rd and down are as far away from us as possible. However, I think Iowa showed us that anything can happen, and I consider anything from 1st to 4th a possibility. My post was simply the most realistic scenario I could come up with for 1st, but I don't think that will happen as I said this is not my prediction, just a possible but unlikely outcome that would be cool to see.

Aldanga
01-10-2012, 12:51 AM
Number 1: Just because the Collins dude said it don't make it true. Official my ass.
Actually, it kinda does. :p

Karsten
01-10-2012, 12:52 AM
It's amazing how pessimistic we are now when polling 2nd compared to how wildly optimistic we were and predicting landslide victories in 2008 when we were polling single digits.

Sublyminal
01-10-2012, 12:54 AM
It's amazing how pessimistic we are now when polling 2nd compared to how wildly optimistic we were and predicting landslide victories in 2008 when we were polling single digits.


We all saw what the MSM did for Frothy.

BuddyRey
01-10-2012, 12:55 AM
Predictions aside, what are the actual numbers looking like so far?

Kandilynn
01-10-2012, 12:56 AM
It's amazing how pessimistic we are now when polling 2nd compared to how wildly optimistic we were and predicting landslide victories in 2008 when we were polling single digits.
That's what I was thinking.

coffeewithgames
01-10-2012, 01:00 AM
It's amazing how pessimistic we are now when polling 2nd compared to how wildly optimistic we were and predicting landslide victories in 2008 when we were polling single digits.

No, some of us in 2008 were listening to the, "It's New Hampshire, the LIVE FREE OR DIE state."...didn't realize the politics involved, and the target audience that votes there, which the campaign is still apparently ignoring in all states (hence, rallies/speeches at college campuses).

Ignore the older audience, and lose the election.

thoughtomator
01-10-2012, 01:27 AM
The realist and pessimist in me are already having trouble containing the optimist

The realist in me had the optimist shoot the pessimist

SurfsUp
01-10-2012, 01:29 AM
Delegates

Unknown.User
01-10-2012, 01:30 AM
..

Sublyminal
01-10-2012, 01:31 AM
WE WILL WIN IOWA IF THESE VIDEOS GO VIRAL!

DRUDGE THIS:
When Mitt Romney Came to Town - Part 1 (HQ)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cz7A1ezokY8

When Mitt Romney Came to Town - Part 2 (HQ)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sv9Cjz9zzBI

When Mitt Romney Came To Town [Trailer]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_evS-T-c35M

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?348690-Newt-goes-nuclear-on-Romney....


You mean NH.

Unknown.User
01-10-2012, 01:33 AM
..

P3ter_Griffin
01-10-2012, 01:48 AM
Predictions aside, what are the actual numbers looking like so far?
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Marginals_Jan_9.pdf
Newt Gingrich .................................. 11%
Jon Huntsman ................................... 13%
Ron Paul ....................................... 20%
Mitt Romney .................................... 33%
Rick Santorum .................................. 10%
Undecided (DO NOT READ) ........................ 12%

Edit...
This is a recent poll not actual primary ballots.

ronpaulitician
01-10-2012, 01:49 AM
The realist in me had the optimist shoot the pessimist
Give it a few more years (say 4 Obama years or 8 non-Paul GOP years) and you might just be locked up for that.

Andrew76
01-10-2012, 02:34 AM
I think two things: realistically, we're in a very good positition for a solid and very respectable 2nd place. Of course we want 1st place, but we can admit at this point it would be a pleasant surprise. Then again, even for me, to place in the top 3 again will be nice.

Those of us who were around for the last election remember what it feels like to get too overexcited and unrealistic about the possibilities and get let down by a 5th place (or worse) showing. Let's keep our heads down and keep kicking ass, send emails, man the phones, post videos, TALK to people, stay positive, polite and focused.

Rick Santorum's "win" in Iowa was a total fluke. He won't even place in the top three in NH. He is a candidate made entirely of FAIL. Too young, too stupid and a total holdover from late 80's, early 90's "family values" conservatism. Yes, please Rick, tell me about how the Federal State is the best apparatus to enforce cultural values you transcendentally preposterous goon.

fatjohn
01-10-2012, 03:05 AM
Romney 33%
Paul 26%
Huntsman 18%
Santorum 11%
Gingrich 9%
Roemer 1%
Perry 1%
Cain 0%
Bachmann 0%

Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul
01-10-2012, 03:06 AM
I'm curious. In the most NH polls, have they only polled Republicans?

jersdream
01-10-2012, 03:08 AM
I'm curious. In the most NH polls, have they only polled Republicans?

No, they poll lots of independents, since it is open to registered independents. That is why NH polling is so hard, you just don't know what % of independents will show up and vote with a given party.

The_Ruffneck
01-10-2012, 03:13 AM
i hope frothy finishes above grinch

Justinfrom1776
01-10-2012, 03:17 AM
Something just stinks about the Huntsman push.. I've said on here before, a close friend of mine was a paid fundraiser for him and picked up and came home about 6 weeks ago after not getting paid for 2 months... She said "Nobody is getting paid here, and we're all leaving".. It's like a fake campaign.

I'm optimistic and think we'll finish a strong 2nd. However, I'm a little worried that everyone blasting off on Romney yesterday will shift some votes to his clone, Huntsman.

EndTheECB
01-10-2012, 03:23 AM
I'm curious. In the most NH polls, have they only polled Republicans?

Nej, primärvalet är "öppet" vilket innebär att de även mäter independents och demokrater.

nowwearefree
01-10-2012, 03:27 AM
my prediction
mitt 37%
ron 21%
huntsman 20%

i dun have much hope with Americans if i'm being honest
majority are pretty ignorant

i really hope we come in 2nd , i think huntsman will definitely be surging

Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul
01-10-2012, 03:31 AM
Så även demokrater? So even democrats?

How many democrats do you guys think will participate?

PS. You don't happen to hang around at flashback.org? EndTheECB?

freneticentropy
01-10-2012, 03:39 AM
What time you think we will start getting results or projections?

EndTheECB
01-10-2012, 03:44 AM
Så även demokrater? So even democrats?

How many democrats do you guys think will participate?

PS. You don't happen to hang around at flashback.org? EndTheECB?

According to the polling institutions the Rep. prim. voters are made up by approximately 30-45% independents. My guess is that democrats will turn out in a low number, probably single digits and that they'll predominantly support Jon Huntsman.

Yes, I was until the Neocon-Romney-nobrainers started filling the thread with crap.

PaulConventionWV
01-10-2012, 05:38 AM
Which is 100% unacceptable for a campaign that is "in it to win it." and has MILLIONS of dollars. Many around here called the Santorum surge, as it was apparent from how the media was talking about him. Many predicted the same treatment with Huntsman, and it appears the media enjoys giving positive free air time to candidates, as long as it is not RP. Why the campaign has not sunk the other campaigns fully, is beyond me.

Really? You're going to blame the campaign for "not sinking the other campaigns fully"? What do you expect them to do? They can't force people to not like Jon Huntsman or Rick Santorum, ffs. Some people are going to like the other candidates no matter what our campaign says. It's laughable that you think it's so black and white and we can just take down the others whenever we want. The media has a little to do with this, too, ya know.

PaulConventionWV
01-10-2012, 05:48 AM
I'm just wondering something...if John McCain won New Hampshire 4 years ago, why can't RP's campaign win first 4 years later, leaving MR in second like 4 years ago?

I seriously hope the campaign is dropping MILLIONS in South Carolina, because if we don't get a 1st in either New Hampshire or SC, curtains it is....

That's not true. This is not 2008. All states are proportional this time, so it is harder for any candidate to win with the first few states. Plus, if nobody else can compete anymore, we will become the anti-romney and get most of that vote. There are a lot of promising states for us, we just have to wait awhile. Although I'm not getting my hopes up, I think we can be a big factor in the GOP convention at least.

kathy88
01-10-2012, 05:55 AM
Acoording to a google search this morning, here are the results. WTF?

http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&site=&source=hp&q=ron+paul&pbx=1&oq=ron+paul&aq=f&aqi=g4&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=1048l1958l0l2209l8l6l0l1l1l0l464l1869l2-3.2.1l7l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=3c50fd143ce78455&biw=1639&bih=771

happyphilter
01-10-2012, 06:31 AM
If anyone is too bored waiting for results there's always C-span to call.

newyearsrevolution08
01-10-2012, 06:36 AM
I did the c-span calls back in 07 and loved doing it. I find what works best for me now is the LOCAL campaigning. I swear when there are a few of you versus just YOU it just changes your DRIVE because you are apart of something. I hope he does well in NH and beyond because we are in this for the long haul and will be taking the nomination.

Ron Paul for the win!

Individual Liberty is only possible by living Individual Responsibility

No Free Beer
01-10-2012, 06:37 AM
Ron 28
Romney 27
Huntsman 18

Who curres about the rest...

No Free Beer
01-10-2012, 06:52 AM
UPSET!

hazek
01-10-2012, 07:12 AM
It's amazing how pessimistic we are now when polling 2nd compared to how wildly optimistic we were and predicting landslide victories in 2008 when we were polling single digits.

A date with reality will do that to you.

hazek
01-10-2012, 07:19 AM
dupe, caused by the forum laging

fisharmor
01-10-2012, 07:29 AM
My prediction:
Romney: 42%
Huntsman: 31%
Gingrich: 28%
Paul: 17%
Santorum: 12%

Further, I predict that Paul will be winning the totals for the first thirty minutes, giving MSM enough time to a) badmouth him openly and b) give the officials the time they need to produce the numbers above.
Also, the only people that will publicly notice that this totals 130% will be bloggers.

Kevin Smyth
01-10-2012, 07:31 AM
Are they voting right now? Or is this one of those wait until 7 p.m. things again?

TheLasersShadow
01-10-2012, 07:35 AM
I got a feeling that Huntsman is going to do very well because no one has attacked him on anything that I know of we might even lose second because of it. I really wish someone had done at least one ad on him ... Personally I don't even know how to go after him. I know Collins posted a sheet on him but I can't find or remember what was on it.

If I don't know whats wrong / negatives with Huntsman then 95% of the electorate doesn't ether. PROBLEM!! thats not good as I follow things decently closely SO ... I think I have to predict that Huntsman is going to be neck and neck with Paul challenging him closely for second. Mitt takes top but not by as much.

tempest
01-10-2012, 07:40 AM
Guys the voting has started, so is there a New Hampshire live results website (presumably this is not a caucous but a real mass vote so there are "exit polls" being counted by someone???

happyphilter
01-10-2012, 07:43 AM
My prediction:
Romney: 42%
Huntsman: 31%
Gingrich: 28%
Paul: 17%
Santorum: 12%

Further, I predict that Paul will be winning the totals for the first thirty minutes, giving MSM enough time to a) badmouth him openly and b) give the officials the time they need to produce the numbers above.
Also, the only people that will publicly notice that this totals 130% will be bloggers.

Those numbers most defiantly do not add up. I do agree however that Ron Paul will come out strong because of the energetic voters, however I believe we have reached the point where we a more traditional voter base as well.

fatjohn
01-10-2012, 07:47 AM
Those numbers most defiantly do not add up. I do agree however that Ron Paul will come out strong because of the energetic voters, however I believe we have reached the point where we a more traditional voter base as well.

The MSM will spin the 130% being so due to record turnout. :)

fatjohn
01-10-2012, 07:54 AM
When do the results start coming in?

fatjohn
01-10-2012, 08:41 AM
When do the results start coming in?

^^This^^

RabbitMan
01-10-2012, 08:42 AM
We are all waiting as eagerly as you.

asurfaholic
01-10-2012, 08:43 AM
Which is 100% unacceptable for a campaign that is "in it to win it." and has MILLIONS of dollars. Many around here called the Santorum surge, as it was apparent from how the media was talking about him. Many predicted the same treatment with Huntsman, and it appears the media enjoys giving positive free air time to candidates, as long as it is not RP. Why the zacampaign has not sunk the other campaigns fully, is beyond me.

I logged in just to neg rep you, seems that your goal is to bring negativity to the table. I don't know how hard it is to understand that ron paul can't just "sink" other campaigns at will. But try he has, and Paul picks his battles wisely - he sunk the perry ferry, he sunk the grinch wrench, and he has a powerful ad playing in sc aimed at wiping up the frothy off everyones faces.

Take your negativity elsewhere, we are doing phenomenal and everyone knows it.

tuggy24g
01-10-2012, 08:44 AM
When do the results start coming in?

You wont know anything until after 8PM

fatjohn
01-10-2012, 08:45 AM
You wont know anything until after 8PM

+ rep!

speciallyblend
01-10-2012, 08:46 AM
actually exit polls are pretty good so we should start knowing or having an idea by late afternoon or early evening. edit unless it is real close.

Chester Copperpot
01-10-2012, 08:46 AM
wont anybody know ANYTHING before 8pm?

speciallyblend
01-10-2012, 08:47 AM
wont anybody know ANYTHING before 8pm?

exit polls will give us a good idea unless it is real close.

ctiger2
01-10-2012, 10:02 AM
Already heard on NPR: Obama 3, Romney 2, Huntsman 2, Gingrich 1, Paul 1

Supposedly this small city has picked the winner since 60's.

Kords21
01-10-2012, 10:04 AM
So, a tie would point toward a brokered convention?

Raudsarw
01-10-2012, 10:34 AM
So, a tie would point toward a brokered convention?

It points towards nothing. Those 9 people aren't wizards.

RPsupporterAtHeart
01-10-2012, 10:40 AM
It points towards nothing. Those 9 people aren't wizards.


aaahhahaha

i spit pepsi all over my keyboard, nice.

speciallyblend
01-10-2012, 10:45 AM
Already heard on NPR: Obama 3, Romney 2, Huntsman 2, Gingrich 1, Paul 1

Supposedly this small city has picked the winner since 60's.

those are old they were out this morning around 1230am

officially we are in 2nd place with the other lil town that voted.

MMXII
01-10-2012, 10:49 AM
We run very strong here today. This State responds well to a "Liberty" message. The polls are all over the place. We contend here and show the country that it's a 2 man race out of NH.

slamhead
01-10-2012, 11:03 AM
2-2 as in 4 people ?? lol This is a mockery. Fox News: Breaking: 2 people go Romney and 2 go Huntsman. What a f*#@*# joke.

I think they mean executives of the MSM split their votes 2-2 for Romney and Huntsman.

LiveForHonortune
01-10-2012, 11:30 AM
From the way the media is reporting it seems it will be

Romney 40%
Huntsman 15%
Gingrich 9%
Santorum 8%
Perry 1%
Ron Paul 0%

In fact, Ron Paul is not even on the ballot or polls.

Xenophage
01-10-2012, 11:34 AM
Ron Paul will get third place again, and less than 20%. Bank on it.

ross11988
01-10-2012, 11:41 AM
Ron Paul will get third place again, and less than 20%. Bank on it.

Hate to agree with you, but im leaning toward that also.

floridasun1983
01-10-2012, 11:43 AM
I think Romney will win but he will falter from the lofty 40% he had days ago (and that may be the narrative we need to gain momentum), but anything less than a 20%+ second place finish by Dr. Paul seriously jeopardizes the campaign.

Ssd
01-10-2012, 11:45 AM
If Paul gets third, unfortunately he'll be phased out by the media. They'll say that he has a strong core of supporters but not enough to win the nomination or even contend for it. I hope to God the polls are wrong and Paul is within 5 points of Romney but I guess the undecided usually are for the frontrunner so Romney will likely end up with 40% with Paul barely breaking 20%.

Romney will then be given an opportunity to call for the party to unite behind him against Obama now and I think it likely will save for Gingrich and Santorum. They'll call Paul a distraction and someone who's only in it for himself.

Chester Copperpot
01-10-2012, 11:46 AM
I think Romney will win but he will falter from the lofty 40% he had days ago (and that may be the narrative we need to gain momentum), but anything less than a 20%+ second place finish by Dr. Paul seriously jeopardizes the campaign.

Um. no

EBounding
01-10-2012, 11:46 AM
If Huntsman gets 2nd, Romney's going to run away with the nomination.

Travlyr
01-10-2012, 11:48 AM
I think Romney will win but he will falter from the lofty 40% he had days ago (and that may be the narrative we need to gain momentum), but anything less than a 20%+ second place finish by Dr. Paul seriously jeopardizes the campaign.

No. The revolution for liberty is gaining momentum. There is no stopping it ... it is worldwide.

Qdog
01-10-2012, 11:49 AM
My prediction: Perry will get 4% and get a huge media "surge" because he has quadrupled his support over night. Perry will then go on to win SC.

Travlyr
01-10-2012, 11:51 AM
If Paul gets third, unfortunately he'll be phased out by the media. They'll say that he has a strong core of supporters but not enough to win the nomination or even contend for it. I hope to God the polls are wrong and Paul is within 5 points of Romney but I guess the undecided usually are for the frontrunner so Romney will likely end up with 40% with Paul barely breaking 20%.

Romney will then be given an opportunity to call for the party to unite behind him against Obama now and I think it likely will save for Gingrich and Santorum. They'll call Paul a distraction and someone who's only in it for himself.

Media is irrelevant. What counts is the number of delegates.

cdw
01-10-2012, 11:51 AM
Ron Paul will get third place again, and less than 20%. Bank on it.
Agreed. They aren't going to let Paul get second to Romney, and if they do, they'll make sure Romney is first by a mile. They have to keep up the narrative that Romney is far and away the front runner and that the voters should just give up and support him in landslide fashion (so that Paul won't gain the necessary delegates). The whole media will be pushing this soon enough. They don't want people to think that Paul has a chance.

It'll either be something like: Romney 31%, Huntsman 21%, Paul 20% or Romney 41%, Paul 19% Huntsman 17%.

ohgodno
01-10-2012, 11:51 AM
A third place finish will reinforce the media narrative (Ron Paul can't win, or even be runner up) - it seems like we'll be seeing a variety of #2 finishers in the early states (with the mainstream hoping none of the #2 finishers are Dr. Paul).

The #2 finishers will be Romney's choices for VP - depending on what demographic the party would most want to compete with Obama for. With that I'm predicting a Hunt #2 finish here in NH and a Perry or Grinch #2 in SC.

So they'd choose Santorum if they want to make a joke of the GOP (if they think they need the hardcore Neocons), Huntsman if they want "moderates", Perry/Grinch if they want faux Tea Partiers. All running with the establishment choice: Romney.

fisharmor
01-10-2012, 11:51 AM
Can we at least see some post 8pm numbers before everyone starts going negative again?
The campaign isn't going to be over no matter what happens.
Everyone knows that even if he gets first, he's still going to suck in Florida and South Carolina.
This is very much an attrition process here. The world got to see this process dragged out to its bitter end on the Democrat side four years ago, and there's no reason to believe that this isn't going to happen this time.
Paul has money, he has supporters, and his base is growing every single day.
Mittens has money. And everyone hates him.

For Pete's sake, chin up! If things go horribly wrong today, it is still not over.

Ssd
01-10-2012, 11:53 AM
Paul better be ready to given a mind-blowing speech tonight. His staff should have several speeches ready depending on the results. If he does really well and comes close to winning, Paul should talk about him being the only guy to challenge Romney and that he's tied with Obama in the polls (electability). If its a far second, Paul should ask conservatives to unite behind him as he brings together independents and Republicans because of his economic policy. If its third or worse, Paul better be ready to drop some nuclear bombs about the media and how they are tied in with the corporatism, federal reserve, and military-industrial complex and then point to the other candidates as being puppets for corporate interests. Even if it doesn't help him, it sure will be his version of revenge as it make the GOP establishment look like whores.

blazeKing
01-10-2012, 11:55 AM
#3 isn't as bad as we make it out to be...we'd still be the only one to finish along with Romney in the top 3 twice for the first two caucus/primary. The others are just flailing for attention and they will fail. The media has no one left after this to prop up to knock down Paul. The others don't have long term potential like Paul and Romney or the money to do it.

helmuth_hubener
01-10-2012, 11:57 AM
Already heard on NPR: Obama 3, Romney 2, Huntsman 2, Gingrich 1, Paul 1

Supposedly this small city has picked the winner since 60's.No way. Also, someone asked earlier why no campaign ever focused on Dixville Notch. Here is a story that simultaneously gives lie to both these claims: http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2209&dat=19920219&id=QYNKAAAAIBAJ&sjid=5pMMAAAAIBAJ&pg=6370,3797381

In 1992, Andre Marrou campaigned actively in Dixville Notch, and he won it, but he did not go on to win the day, nor the Presidency.

ChristianAnarchist
01-10-2012, 11:57 AM
While I agree that what the media spins will help or hurt us, in the end Dr. Paul is shooting for delegates. As most of the other candidates start dropping, whatever delegates they have garnered will be "unbound" and up for grabs. This is really only a race between Romney and Paul. None of the other candidates will make it to the end so we need to be sly as a fox and get those delegates...

So if Huntsman gets delegates, our guys need to be begging to be "Huntsman delegates". That way when he drops out, these unbound delegates can support the good doctor...

floridasun1983
01-10-2012, 11:59 AM
Media is irrelevant. What counts is the number of delegates.Seriously, the media is irrelevant? How do you explain the media created Santorum surge in Iowa? The media is many things, but irrlevent is certainly not one of them.

Havax
01-10-2012, 12:05 PM
Paul better be ready to given a mind-blowing speech tonight.

Don't count on it. He'll go up there and shoot from the hip as usual and say the same things. He doesn't really know how to be political which is both a blessing and a curse.

BuddyRey
01-10-2012, 12:06 PM
Why is everybody talking about a 3rd place finish? We're running 2nd right now aren't we?

Sure, there's something to be said for not getting our hopes up too high, but we also shouldn't start a pity party lest we know there'll be just cause for one.

PastaRocket848
01-10-2012, 12:09 PM
Why is everybody talking about a 3rd place finish? We're running 2nd right now aren't we?

Sure, there's something to be said for not getting our hopes up too high, but we also shouldn't start a pity party lest we know there'll be just cause for one.

no, we're not. we're in the margin of error for 2nd, with huntsman tracking up and paul tracking down. it's better to expect 3rd and get 2nd than to expect 2nd and get 3rd.

liberty2012
01-10-2012, 12:10 PM
..

ohgodno
01-10-2012, 12:15 PM
The media push the narratives.

The campaign's job is to supply the good ones and combat the ones that reflect poorly on the candidate.

They've been doing a poor job combating and redirecting the bad narratives to make them positive. The biggest issue is the foreign policy questions; the quicker they can find the correct way to frame the non-interventionist philosophy to make it palpable to traditional conservatives the better as this is the demographic Dr. Paul most needs. The neocons are lost and always will be - but appealing to conservatives is the way to beat them.

The foreign policy arguments - even though they're based 100% in fact - are weak for one reason and one reason only: they make it seem likeDr. Paul is totally anti-war and will let anyone attack the country. We all know this to be untrue, but this is the narrative that is constantly drilled into people.

Dr. Paul needs to stress further that he WILL protect the country, appear strong while stressing agressive wars are not the way to defend the country. The saying goes: offense wins games but defense wins championships.

SilentBull
01-10-2012, 12:16 PM
Why is everybody talking about a 3rd place finish? We're running 2nd right now aren't we?

Sure, there's something to be said for not getting our hopes up too high, but we also shouldn't start a pity party lest we know there'll be just cause for one.

Because they are doing the same thing they did in Iowa.

Travlyr
01-10-2012, 12:22 PM
Seriously, the media is irrelevant? How do you explain the media created Santorum surge in Iowa? The media is many things, but irrlevent is certainly not one of them.

Yes, irrelevant. The only people paying attention to them are still asleep. Seriously, the war economy that the media promotes is a horrible way to live life. The counterfeit fiat money scheme that they promote impoverishes people and enriches others. It is a criminal organization. The media is a front for all of that.

Already, literate people have quit paying attention to media shills and their lies. Before long everybody is going to see the liars for who they are. It is the 21st century. We all have the truth machine at out fingertips.

People are waking up to the truth. The truth is well stated by Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan,

"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves. This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights." - Alan Greenspan, Gold and Economic Freedom
The only question is: When will you wake up? Before they take your life savings or after?

radiofriendly
01-10-2012, 12:32 PM
Of course I'll be right here too - I'm running a Live Blog over at my website,

http://iroots.org/2012/01/09/live-blog-of-new-hampshire-primary-day/

http://iroots.org/wp-content/uploads/JROY.jpg

rightcoast
01-10-2012, 12:33 PM
Yes, irrelevant. The only people paying attention to them are still asleep ... The only question is: When will you wake up? Before they take your life savings or after?

So ... only 9.5 out of 10 people pay any attention to a form of mainstream media. :\

Read those words again. "Mainstream media."

People don't call it that because it is "irrelevant".

I know, I know ... wake up sheeple!!!tildeone

Kevin Smyth
01-10-2012, 12:36 PM
So ... only 9.5 out of 10 people pay any attention to a form of mainstream media. :\

Read those words again. "Mainstream media."

People don't call it that because it is "irrelevant".

I know, I know ... wake up sheeple!!!tildeone

The Fox News fans don't even think Fox is mainstream media, they think that term only applies to liberal networks so when you see a poll that asks people if they trust the mainstream media keep in mind that Fox fans do not consider their network as a part of the mainstream media thus rendering the results of such polls worthless.

Tod
01-10-2012, 12:36 PM
http://livewire.wmur.com/Event/New_Hampshire_Primary_Election_Results

currently:



Romney , Mitt

7
37%



Paul , Ron
GOP
5
26%



Huntsman , Jon
GOP
4
21%



Gingrich , Newt
GOP
2
11%



Perry , Rick
GOP
1
5%



Bachmann , Michele
GOP
0
0%



Santorum , Rick
GOP
0
0%



Betzler , Bear
GOP
0
0%



sorry for the formatting....

Esoteric
01-10-2012, 12:39 PM
Why aren't there any entrance polls?

specsaregood
01-10-2012, 12:42 PM
The Fox News fans don't even think Fox is mainstream media, they think that term only applies to liberal networks

How is foxnews not a liberal network?

Esoteric
01-10-2012, 12:42 PM
Mitt Romney 7 36.8%
Ron Paul 5 26.3%
Jon Huntsman 4 21.1%
Newt Gingrich 2 10.5%
Rick Perry 1 5.3%

This might indicate how the race will turn out...

Margin of Error +/- 50%

blazeKing
01-10-2012, 12:42 PM
Why aren't there any entrance polls?

Not happening until the polls close so the media doesn't influence the election (any more than they already do,)

KEEF
01-10-2012, 12:43 PM
http://livewire.wmur.com/Event/New_Hampshire_Primary_Election_Results



Thanks for the link, I've been searching the web for a while trying to find one.

+1

Kords21
01-10-2012, 12:43 PM
Apparently sign waving does work, at least in one case

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/signs-times-scenes-hampshire-primary-165307864.html

Maximus
01-10-2012, 12:49 PM
Apparently sign waving does work, at least in one case

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/signs-times-scenes-hampshire-primary-165307864.html

Of course it works to an extent. There's a reason companies pay millions and millions for billboards and signwavers on corners.

SchleckBros
01-10-2012, 12:50 PM
Outside the Manchester polling place

http://images.scribblelive.com/2012/1/10/e47c8d2e-f556-46a8-b0d3-3b7f588f3c95_400.jpg

Expatriate
01-10-2012, 01:01 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/signs-times-scenes-hampshire-primary-165307864.html

"He was the only one represented here," Carrier said, referring to the lone Paul supporter holding a sign outside the McDonough School. "I usually make up my mind at the poll."

I'm glad he voted for Ron Paul, but truly I wish people like this didn't vote at all. If you know so little about who and what you're voting for that you have to decide at the poll... well that is incredibly irresponsible. You are deciding the future of this country and every other country that we meddle with and/or bomb. Actual human lives can be destroyed or saved depending on the result.

This is a life and death decision, not some American Idol contest.

tsetsefly
01-10-2012, 01:07 PM
"He was the only one represented here," Carrier said, referring to the lone Paul supporter holding a sign outside the McDonough School. "I usually make up my mind at the poll."

I'm glad he voted for Ron Paul, but truly I wish people like this didn't vote at all. If you know so little about who and what you're voting for that you have to decide at the poll... well that is incredibly irresponsible. You are deciding the future of this country and every other country that we meddle with and/or bomb. Actual human lives can be destroyed or saved depending on the result.

This is a life and death decision, not some American Idol contest.

my thoughts exactly... I mean really...

JamesButabi
01-10-2012, 01:07 PM
Outside the Manchester polling place

http://images.scribblelive.com/2012/1/10/e47c8d2e-f556-46a8-b0d3-3b7f588f3c95_400.jpg

Awesome!

Sarge
01-10-2012, 01:10 PM
I read all the comments on the article, and it is about every Ron Paul vote getting out to vote in NH now. No I didn't vote excuses tomorrow or next year.

Remember most early voting took place a while ago, so that might also help Dr. Paul. ie, before all the fake media surges.

mikeforliberty
01-10-2012, 01:11 PM
I've been sitting here thinking about Romney and Huntsman. I think a Huntsman surge in NH is good for us. His votes will probably come mostly from the Romney votes. In NH here are the ideological splits:

Romney / Huntsman
Gingrich / Santorum / Perry
Ron Paul

This looks pretty good to me considering we have polled in second place for so long and our voters won't split so easily for anyone else. Huntsman may take away enough votes from Romney to put us in 1st.

BUSHLIED
01-10-2012, 01:14 PM
Ron is now a Ward 1 drumming up support!!!

Kluge
01-10-2012, 01:15 PM
What? Their polls are open and in at least two precincts, closed, or am I missing something? http://livewire.wmur.com/Event/New_Hampshire_Primary_Election_Results shows two precincts already reporting. 37% Romney, 26% Ron, 21 Hunstman, 11% Newt.... out of 19 votes total. Maybe the precinct [in very small communities] had all their registered voters vote?

r3volution
01-10-2012, 01:16 PM
goggle reporting 1% ?



Results for New Hampshire Republican Primary (U.S. Presidential Primary)
Jan 10, 2012 (1% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 7 36.8%
Ron Paul 5 26.3%
Jon Huntsman 4 21.1%
Newt Gingrich 2 10.5%
Rick Perry 1 5.3%

kahless
01-10-2012, 01:18 PM
Foxnews had live coverage of the 9 votes being counted just after midnight last night. The remaining 10 votes from the other precincts came shortly afterwards.

Kluge
01-10-2012, 01:25 PM
Anyone know where I can find the Dem results? I can totally imagine Supreme taking over Obama in NH where almost nobody will be voting.

musicmax
01-10-2012, 01:26 PM
goggle reporting 1% ?



Results for New Hampshire Republican Primary (U.S. Presidential Primary)
Jan 10, 2012 (1% of precincts reporting)
Mitt Romney 7 36.8%
Ron Paul 5 26.3%
Jon Huntsman 4 21.1%
Newt Gingrich 2 10.5%
Rick Perry 1 5.3%

Hart's Location and Dixville Notch vote very early (DN at midnight).

Davy Crockett
01-10-2012, 01:26 PM
New Hampshire - County Vote Results

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/NH_GOP_0110.html?SITE=WMURTVELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Kluge
01-10-2012, 01:31 PM
New Hampshire - County Vote Results

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/NH_GOP_0110.html?SITE=WMURTVELN&SECTION=POLITICS
Thanks. 13/13 votes for Obama :( -- looks like Supreme was only able to secure write-in status.

Esoteric
01-10-2012, 01:33 PM
WHERE are the ENTRANCE POLLS?

pauliticalfan
01-10-2012, 01:40 PM
Vermine Supreme will win the Dem Primary in a landslide. Who wouldn't want free ponies?

fatjohn
01-10-2012, 01:44 PM
"He was the only one represented here," Carrier said, referring to the lone Paul supporter holding a sign outside the McDonough School. "I usually make up my mind at the poll."

I'm glad he voted for Ron Paul, but truly I wish people like this didn't vote at all. If you know so little about who and what you're voting for that you have to decide at the poll... well that is incredibly irresponsible. You are deciding the future of this country and every other country that we meddle with and/or bomb. Actual human lives can be destroyed or saved depending on the result.

This is a life and death decision, not some American Idol contest.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tPbJCQyWYQ

rich34
01-10-2012, 01:47 PM
Exit polls used to be very reliable until W. came along. Funny how thats is...

KingNothing
01-10-2012, 01:56 PM
Do we know the areas/counties Paul is strongest in?

GunnyFreedom
01-10-2012, 01:58 PM
So ... only 9.5 out of 10 people pay any attention to a form of mainstream media. :\

Read those words again. "Mainstream media."

People don't call it that because it is "irrelevant".

I know, I know ... wake up sheeple!!!tildeone

9.5 out of 10 in 2008.

7.4 out of 10 in 2012.

I call that progress.

eduardo89
01-10-2012, 02:01 PM
Are there any exit polls?

unknown
01-10-2012, 02:05 PM
Exit polls used to be very reliable until W. came along. Funny how thats is...

Interesting point.

We NEVER hear about exit polls anymore... or do we?

Esoteric
01-10-2012, 02:05 PM
Are there any exit polls?

THIS. Shem?

One Last Battle!
01-10-2012, 02:09 PM
if the percentages hold steady in the next 24 hours--- is this to be a 5, 4, 3 split in terms of delegates for the top three?
if mitt romney has five delegates in tampa from N.H and dr. ron paul has four to huntsman's three... i will not be in shock!

Doubtful. Those were northern towns, and I suspect we'll do better in the north.

Remember when we were leading with 50% or something in Iowa (because they started with the east where we do better I think)?

Havax
01-10-2012, 02:14 PM
Ron did best in Grafton and Coos in 08. Seems to do best on the western side of NH.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NH

thehungarian
01-10-2012, 02:21 PM
I don't know how I'm going to survive the night. My liquor has disappeared. /panicmode

randomname
01-10-2012, 02:21 PM
WHERE are the ENTRANCE POLLS?

I think airing them during voting may have been ruled illegal for unfairly influencing elections

KingNothing
01-10-2012, 02:23 PM
I think airing them during voting may have been ruled illegal for unfairly influencing elections

That is correct, I think.

....which is insane. People decide who to vote for so that they can be on the winning team? Really?

I'm not even saying it's untrue. It obviously isn't. People bandwagon vote. That is completely, undeniably, insane.

affa
01-10-2012, 02:30 PM
That is correct, I think.

....which is insane. People decide who to vote for so that they can be on the winning team? Really?

I'm not even saying it's untrue. It obviously isn't. People bandwagon vote. That is completely, undeniably, insane.

I've told this story on this forum before, but it's worth repeating.

About a decade ago, I worked for a well known company with a well known website. I worked in IT. A manager was on our website, doing a poll. It was for something silly, like 'Name your favorite cuisine'... something of that level of personal choice and utter unimportance. I was at his desk, and watched him as he clicked 'See Results', audibly said 'Ahhhh.', clicked back, and voted for what had been the top pick.

Something felt off, something in the way he said 'Ahhh.' So I asked him, directly, 'Did you just check the results before you picked your own favorite?'. His response, totally serious (because we had a full discussion afterwards) was:
"I wanted to make sure I picked the right answer."

That, my friends, is how some people think. My confidence in us as a people dropped significantly that day. He did not care about his own personal preference; he legitimately thought it was better to be 'right', and therefore fit in, than go with his gut.

pauliticalfan
01-10-2012, 02:43 PM
http://ohpcenter.org/editorials.php?nav=20120110a

Just found this "exit poll", have no clue whether it's legitimate or not. If it is, it looks like Huntsman is kicking some serious ass, which irritates me to no end. Thoughts on whether or not this is real?

J-Reg
01-10-2012, 02:43 PM
I've told this story on this forum before, but it bears repeating.

About a decade ago, I worked for a well known company with a well known website. I worked in IT. A manager was on our website, doing a poll. It was for something silly, like 'Name your favorite cuisine'... something of that level of personal choice and utter unimportance. I was at his desk, and watched him as he clicked 'See Results', audibly said 'Ahhhh.', clicked back, and voted for what had been the top pick.

Something felt off, something in the way he say 'Ahhh.' So I asked him, directly, 'Did you just check the results before you picked your own favorite?'. His response, totally serious (because we had a full discussion afterwards) was:
"I wanted to make sure I picked the right answer."

That, my friends, is how some people think. My confidence in us as a people dropped significantly that day. He did not care about his own personal preference; he legitimately thought it was better to be 'right', and therefore fit in, than go with his gut. That......that.......that.......that's just....... *head explodes*

tbone717
01-10-2012, 02:47 PM
I've told this story on this forum before, but it bears repeating.

About a decade ago, I worked for a well known company with a well known website. I worked in IT. A manager was on our website, doing a poll. It was for something silly, like 'Name your favorite cuisine'... something of that level of personal choice and utter unimportance. I was at his desk, and watched him as he clicked 'See Results', audibly said 'Ahhhh.', clicked back, and voted for what had been the top pick.

Something felt off, something in the way he say 'Ahhh.' So I asked him, directly, 'Did you just check the results before you picked your own favorite?'. His response, totally serious (because we had a full discussion afterwards) was:
"I wanted to make sure I picked the right answer."

That, my friends, is how some people think. My confidence in us as a people dropped significantly that day. He did not care about his own personal preference; he legitimately thought it was better to be 'right', and therefore fit in, than go with his gut.

It's human nature really. I don't fault people for it as much as I just see it as it is what it is. Probably just my age, I have gotten past the point of being idealistic and have embraced realism.

In the context we are working for here, we need to position Paul as the candidate that everyone is voting for so that those who vote for the winner, will see our man as the winner.

thoughtomator
01-10-2012, 02:49 PM
That......that.......that.......that's just....... *head explodes*

that's SOP for middle management... if you've ever worked in a large enterprise you know the worst thing a manager can do is get noticed

eleganz
01-10-2012, 02:56 PM
How do you guys think today's Suffolk poll will play into the results?

thehungarian
01-10-2012, 02:57 PM
Fear not, liberty warriors! The liquor has been found and all shall be right with the world tonight.

randomname
01-10-2012, 03:00 PM
this is promising... Huntsman all the way at the bottom:

DRUDGE READERS IN NH VOTE:

ROMNEY: 29%
PAUL: 29%
SANTORUM 17%
GINGRICH 15%
HUNTSMAN 8%

pauliticalfan
01-10-2012, 03:07 PM
CNN saying it's a close battle for second. This isn't official, but considering they do have access to exit polls, brace yourself guys.

KingNothing
01-10-2012, 03:08 PM
I've told this story on this forum before, but it bears repeating.

About a decade ago, I worked for a well known company with a well known website. I worked in IT. A manager was on our website, doing a poll. It was for something silly, like 'Name your favorite cuisine'... something of that level of personal choice and utter unimportance. I was at his desk, and watched him as he clicked 'See Results', audibly said 'Ahhhh.', clicked back, and voted for what had been the top pick.

Something felt off, something in the way he say 'Ahhh.' So I asked him, directly, 'Did you just check the results before you picked your own favorite?'. His response, totally serious (because we had a full discussion afterwards) was:
"I wanted to make sure I picked the right answer."

That, my friends, is how some people think. My confidence in us as a people dropped significantly that day. He did not care about his own personal preference; he legitimately thought it was better to be 'right', and therefore fit in, than go with his gut.


HAHHAA!

That is tremendous.

KingNothing
01-10-2012, 03:08 PM
that's SOP for middle management... if you've ever worked in a large enterprise you know the worst thing a manager can do is get noticed


Bingo.

Kords21
01-10-2012, 03:09 PM
Battle for 2nd between Romney and Huntsman? Cool. I kid. I really think Paul is going to pull out 2nd over Huntsman

Brown Sapper
01-10-2012, 03:09 PM
(edit) crap fooled again:(

timshanks1
01-10-2012, 03:13 PM
CNN saying it's a close battle for second. This isn't official, but considering they do have access to exit polls, brace yourself guys.

Looking more like the Huntsman prop-up campaign worked with flying colors. Hopefully we can edge him out.

nc4rp
01-10-2012, 03:13 PM
Media is irrelevant. What counts is the number of delegates.

Doesnt Paul have to WIN 5 states to force a constitutional convention or whatever its called when no one has 50% of the vote to take teh GOP convention to the 2nd round?

jersdream
01-10-2012, 03:14 PM
Another 3rd place finish in New Hampshire would be devastating. Leading in the polls in Iowa and being 2nd in polls in New Hampshire and getting to 3rd place finishes could only be described as much as that.

abstrusezincate
01-10-2012, 03:14 PM
I sometimes sit and wonder if the media was actually impartial how well we would do.

If we got the push these others did, we'd win.

speciallyblend
01-10-2012, 03:15 PM
CNN saying it's a close battle for second. This isn't official, but considering they do have access to exit polls, brace yourself guys.

cnn also just confessed their exit polls were wrong with hillary and obama.

BUSHLIED
01-10-2012, 03:15 PM
Interesting.


The AG's office is looking into reports that someone was attempting to conduct a poll inside voting locations in Manchester, Portsmouth and Dover. According to initial reports from moderators at those locations, voters were being asked to take a survey about issues that mattered to them. The AG's office said that isn't allowed under state law. Read more: http://livewire.wmur.com/Event/New_Hampshire_Primary_Election_Results#ixzz1j5jJaV Cr

SilentBull
01-10-2012, 03:15 PM
Another 3rd place finish in New Hampshire would be devastating. Leading in the polls in Iowa and being 2nd in polls in New Hampshire and getting to 3rd place finishes could only be described as much as that.

I disagree that it would be devastating. They're pumping guys at the last minute. They are out of guys after tonight. They can't pull that crap again. And it is clear their attacks against Ron haven't worked, so what will they do when it's Romney vs Paul???

SovereignMN
01-10-2012, 03:17 PM
http://ohpcenter.org/editorials.php?nav=20120110a

Just found this "exit poll", have no clue whether it's legitimate or not. If it is, it looks like Huntsman is kicking some serious ass, which irritates me to no end. Thoughts on whether or not this is real?

Might be legit but remember...1) It's an unscientific poll. 2) This is a Huntsman supporter reporting the results. 3) Sounds like it was taken early in the day. The age group clearly shows that the crowd was senior. Old people wake up at 7am to vote, young people don't.

Salvial
01-10-2012, 03:20 PM
I disagree that it would be devastating. They're pumping guys at the last minute. They are out of guys after tonight. They can't pull that crap again. And it is clear their attacks against Ron haven't worked, so what will they do when it's Romney vs Paul???

Exactly! It's important but still small change at this point. Their fodder is running out and we are staying steady - it's always been the plan!

eleganz
01-10-2012, 03:20 PM
Just on CNN they were showing how many voters were going in undecided because they know RP is the right vote but Romney is the 'beat Obama vote'. My heart broke when I heard one of the ladies say that.

We are winning the war though, average people are weighing free-thinking vs force-fed propaganda against each other....this is nothing but good news.

We are in this for the long haul!

jersdream
01-10-2012, 03:24 PM
http://ohpcenter.org/editorials.php?nav=20120110a

Just found this "exit poll", have no clue whether it's legitimate or not. If it is, it looks like Huntsman is kicking some serious ass, which irritates me to no end. Thoughts on whether or not this is real?

This is only one polling place, the guy seems to be an amateur..with only 33 people polled.

Huntsman gets 13 according to him
Romney gets 8
Paul gets 6
Santorum 3
Gingrich 3
Perry 1

(because of rounding one of them has one less vote....going off those %'s)

I wouldn't put much stock into it.

Steve-in-NY
01-10-2012, 03:25 PM
I disagree that it would be devastating. They're pumping guys at the last minute. They are out of guys after tonight. They can't pull that crap again. And it is clear their attacks against Ron haven't worked, so what will they do when it's Romney vs Paul???You forgot about Perrys surprise SC surge.

ababba
01-10-2012, 03:26 PM
http://ohpcenter.org/editorials.php?nav=20120110a

Just found this "exit poll", have no clue whether it's legitimate or not. If it is, it looks like Huntsman is kicking some serious ass, which irritates me to no end. Thoughts on whether or not this is real?

A 33 observation poll has a "margin of error" or a 95% confidence interval 4 times as wide as a 500 observation poll (the accuracy rises with the square root of the sample size). If standard margin of error is 4%, this poll should have a 16% margin of error.

Acala
01-10-2012, 03:27 PM
Unless Dr. Paul gets slaughtered in NH, I see more candidates dropping out and the field narrowing to Ron Paul and Romney Corp. And then it goes the distance.

specsaregood
01-10-2012, 03:32 PM
Doesnt Paul have to WIN 5 states to force a constitutional convention or whatever its called when no one has 50% of the vote to take teh GOP convention to the 2nd round?
in that respect, iowa hasn't even been won yet. the straw poll was meaningless, ia will be won at the state convention by the delegates.

bt53
01-10-2012, 03:33 PM
Unless Dr. Paul gets slaughtered in NH, I see more candidates dropping out and the field narrowing to Ron Paul and Romney Corp. And then it goes the distance.
This. Newt's given up on actually campaigning for himself and decided to get into a "who's more corrupt" brawl with Romney. Santorum's already slipping and isn't on the ballots in key states/lacks resources. I'd expect the media to perhaps try to pump Perry up one last time since it's been a while since he's been flavor of the week.

Travlyr
01-10-2012, 03:34 PM
Doesnt Paul have to WIN 5 states to force a constitutional convention or whatever its called when no one has 50% of the vote to take teh GOP convention to the 2nd round?
I don't know about that. I didn't really get that said right. What I meant was that the media is irrelevant to me because I no longer believe the lies they tell about fiat money and the war economy. The mainstream media promotions are in their last days whether Ron Paul wins the GOP nomination or not. Sound money, peace, and truth will win eventually ... when enough people realize that media has duped them ... the question remaining is: When will critical mass awakening be reached?

libertybrewcity
01-10-2012, 03:42 PM
I sense a strong second place finish for Dr Paul or a narrow 1st.

Source: I am a wizard.

voytechs
01-10-2012, 03:49 PM
I went through this 4 years ago and was very disappointed with NH. They talk a lot about liberty, but don't walk the talk :(

affa
01-10-2012, 03:54 PM
Another 3rd place finish in New Hampshire would be devastating. Leading in the polls in Iowa and being 2nd in polls in New Hampshire and getting to 3rd place finishes could only be described as much as that.

No. A second or third place finish is fine. Huntsman has no more legs than Santorum did, and will fall. The story here is one of consistency. People surge, then fall. Romney stays consistent. Ron Paul rises.

Obviously, I'd prefer a first or second place finish. But if Huntsman wins? Big deal. It'll hurt Santorum far more (for dropping 2+ places) than it hurts us (for staying solid).

DRHChi
01-10-2012, 03:56 PM
I went through this 4 years ago and was very disappointed with NH. They talk a lot about liberty, but don't walk the talk :(

My impression of NH completely changed that day 4 years ago. I couldn't believe how little support they showed for Paul. "Live Free Or Die" doesn't mean much to them apparently. Lets see if they redeem themselves today but my optimism is tempered.

ross11988
01-10-2012, 03:57 PM
No. A second or third place finish is fine. Huntsman has no more legs than Santorum did, and will fall. The story here is one of consistency. People surge, then fall. Romney stays consistent. Ron Paul rises.

Obviously, I'd prefer a first or second place finish. But if Huntsman wins? Big deal. It'll hurt Santorum far more (for dropping 2+ places) than it hurts us (for staying solid).

I disagree, the campaign needs money. It needed the million dollar days that Santorum got right after Iowa. People are losing hope. WE MUST PLACE 2ND! AND BY A GOOD MARGIN

Xenophage
01-10-2012, 03:58 PM
I went through this 4 years ago and was very disappointed with NH. They talk a lot about liberty, but don't walk the talk :(

We were all extremely disappointed in NH four years ago, but you should remember that the newsletter story broke a week before the NH primary and it cost Ron Paul lots of support. We also had unrealistic expectations, with people saying over and over again how useless polls were as an indicator of what his actual vote would be, that he would outperform expectations... when the final results came in, he actually underperformed.

pauliticalfan
01-10-2012, 03:59 PM
waltershapiroPD: Results of my very unscientific exit poll in Ward 5 in gritty Goffstown: Paul (16), Romney (9), Huntsman (7), Santorum (4). Newt/Perry: Zip.

Doesn't mean much, but hey, at least we have some votes!

rodo1776
01-10-2012, 04:01 PM
My impression of NH completely changed that day 4 years ago. I couldn't believe how little support they showed for Paul. "Live Free Or Die" doesn't mean much to them apparently. Lets see if they redeem themselves today but my optimism is tempered.


I think that as of around 9:00Pm Eastern time tonight this may be the new New Hampshire license plate. Sadly.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/6673380621/lightbox/

Babylon
01-10-2012, 04:04 PM
This. Newt's given up on actually campaigning for himself and decided to get into a "who's more corrupt" brawl with Romney. Santorum's already slipping and isn't on the ballots in key states/lacks resources. I'd expect the media to perhaps try to pump Perry up one last time since it's been a while since he's been flavor of the week.

I hate having to ask this.
I feel like some old Grandma on AOL asking what "LOL" means....

Nevertheless, my curiosity has got the best of me....

Can someone tell me what the "THIS" means?!

It's driving me nuts!!

bt53
01-10-2012, 04:05 PM
I hate having to ask this.
I feel like some old Grandma on AOL asking what "LOL" means....

Nevertheless, my curiosity has got the best of me....

Can someone tell me what the "THIS" means?!

It's driving me nuts!!

It's just kind of internet shorthand for 'I agree' with an added emphasis.

LibertyEagle
01-10-2012, 04:07 PM
Come on guys, what defeatism in this thread. Buck up. We have yet begun to fight!!!

affa
01-10-2012, 04:13 PM
I hate having to ask this.
I feel like some old Grandma on AOL asking what "LOL" means....

Nevertheless, my curiosity has got the best of me....

Can someone tell me what the "THIS" means?!

It's driving me nuts!!

About the same as QFT does ("quote for truth"). It means the respondent stands by the text they are quoting.

DRHChi
01-10-2012, 04:13 PM
Come on guys, what defeatism in this thread. Buck up. We have yet begun to fight!!!

Here's hoping. I wish the free state project had developed further. Then we'd have a real reason to doubt the polls.

Miss Annie
01-10-2012, 04:14 PM
I hate having to ask this.
I feel like some old Grandma on AOL asking what "LOL" means....

Nevertheless, my curiosity has got the best of me....

Can someone tell me what the "THIS" means?!

It's driving me nuts!!

I am always running into this stuff too! LOL= Laugh out Loud

Anyone want to tell me what "QFT" means?

affa
01-10-2012, 04:14 PM
Come on guys, what defeatism in this thread. Buck up. We have yet begun to fight!!!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Deep breath! We're doing amazing!

Miss Annie
01-10-2012, 04:15 PM
About the same as QFT does ("quote for truth"). It means the respondent stands by the text they are quoting.

I was still posting when you added! Thanks for the heads up!! :)

bt53
01-10-2012, 04:15 PM
I personally expect to see a large turn out from the college RP crowd, it's a better format than Iowa and the independant streak in NH is vastly different than the values voters blocs in the midwest.

affa
01-10-2012, 04:15 PM
nm.
(nevermind, lol)

UK4Paul
01-10-2012, 04:16 PM
About the same as QFT does ("quote for truth"). It means the respondent stands by the text they are quoting.

^^ This.

Only perhaps it's a bit stronger. It's like, "I REALLY agree with the statement" ;)

Captain Shays
01-10-2012, 04:19 PM
I got a lot of positive responses for Ron Paul. One Gingrich supporter before the phones cut off. Blah. Convinced one Democrat to go and register as Republican for Ron Paul.
Got one nice older lady who was called 5 times and said "I am disappointed that a guy like Ron Paul would bug the heck out of me like this. Could you please tell him to stop calling me".

It was fun to talk to people and get such a great response

abstrusezincate
01-10-2012, 04:21 PM
As an aside, if you ever see modern slang you don't recognize, go to www.urbandictionary.com. You'll get your answers there, but it gets a little explicit.

Havax
01-10-2012, 04:23 PM
The campaign dropped the ball with Huntsman just like they did with Santorum. They've released like 6 things today about Huntsman and can tell they think he's a threat. They should've had the foresight to do this the second Iowa ended. Too little too late.

specsaregood
01-10-2012, 04:23 PM
Come on guys, what defeatism in this thread. Buck up. We have yet begun to fight!!!

apathy is an addictive drug and apathy-heads are always looking for an excuse to drop back out.

libertybrewcity
01-10-2012, 04:42 PM
Here's a good results source from the Union Leader:

http://www.unionleader.com/section/news0608

Kluge
01-10-2012, 04:58 PM
apathy is an addictive drug and apathy-heads are always looking for an excuse to drop back out.
Been a whi1e since I f0und s0mething rea11y sig-w0rthy :)

abstrusezincate
01-10-2012, 05:01 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/287749/romney-paul-see-strong-turnout-derry-robert-costa

Not results yet, but reporting in Derry is that everyone is for Ron or Mitt. Most importantly, Huntsman not connecting. :)

green73
01-10-2012, 05:05 PM
@nytpolls (https://twitter.com/#%21/nytpolls/status/156867781323800576):

Once again, Ron Paul rocks with the under 30 crowd. Nobody else even comes close. NH #exits

libertygrl
01-10-2012, 05:28 PM
I believe the number one priority with many voters is to beat Obama. One woman on CNN who was interviewed said that while she agrees on many issues with Ron Paul, she believes only Romney can beat Obama and was still undecided! We've got to start pounding out the fact that Ron Paul can also beat Obama. The media is doing a better job of making people believe otherwise!

Travlyr
01-10-2012, 05:41 PM
We'll soon learn which candidate has a ceiling and which one has momentum year over year.

Republicans
New Hampshire Republican primary, 2008

As of 11:28 am EDT on January 9, 99% of all precincts had reported. The votes were as follows:
John McCain with 37% of the vote and an estimated 7 delegates;
Mitt Romney with 31% of the vote and an estimated 4 delegates;
Mike Huckabee with 11% of the vote and an estimated 1 delegates;
Rudy Giuliani with 9% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.
Ron Paul with 8% of the vote and an estimated 0 delegates.

JoshS
01-10-2012, 05:44 PM
When do results start coming in?

Aratus
01-10-2012, 05:45 PM
7:30 to 8:00 EST

NoPants
01-10-2012, 06:03 PM
Why is everyone posting in the CNN exit polls thread?

king_nothing_
01-10-2012, 06:06 PM
Dana Bash at RP headquarters? Really?

bunklocoempire
01-10-2012, 06:09 PM
Why is everyone posting in the CNN exit polls thread?

Obviously it's because it isn't an official thread.

:)

NoPants
01-10-2012, 06:11 PM
Wolf loves it when Dana gives those behind the scenes glimpses. :rolleyes:

Original_Intent
01-10-2012, 06:12 PM
Why did they change the polls close from 7 p.m. EST to 8 p.m.?

brushfire
01-10-2012, 06:13 PM
Why did they change the polls close from 7 p.m. EST to 8 p.m.?

Paul winning?

MisterTickle
01-10-2012, 06:14 PM
Paul winning?

LOL

Liberty Shark
01-10-2012, 06:14 PM
This is going to come down to the people who show up at the last minute to vote. If they break heavily for Huntsman he'll get second. If not, Paul has 2nd. Currently, Paul has second as long as no last minute surprises.

anewvoice
01-10-2012, 06:15 PM
Why did they change the polls close from 7 p.m. EST to 8 p.m.?

Was it changed or was it always 8? And polling locations often will extend if there are too many people there to close.

PaulConventionWV
01-10-2012, 06:16 PM
I hate having to ask this.
I feel like some old Grandma on AOL asking what "LOL" means....

Nevertheless, my curiosity has got the best of me....

Can someone tell me what the "THIS" means?!

It's driving me nuts!!

It's like "what he/she said". Same concept.

Havax
01-10-2012, 06:17 PM
Huntsman beating Ron by about 100 in this tallying in Manchester. Romeny beating them both. 3 stubborn idiots voted for Gary Johnson.

randomname
01-10-2012, 06:17 PM
Let me repeat this one...


Here's the crosstabs from the latest PPP poll:

Indy (37%): 26% for Romney, 24% Paul, 23% Huntsman
Dem (5%): 17% for Romney, 26% Paul, 27% Huntsman
GOP (59%): 42% for Romney, 14% Paul, 11% Huntsman

Romney really outperforming expectations, Paul and Huntsman doing a lot better too. Bad news for Newt & Santorum.

Looks like we will have a distant second, pretty close to Huntsman

Putting Fox exit poll numbers and PPP numbers together may mean good news for us.

Romney was expected to get 24% with PPP Indys (incl dems), got 30%. Outperformed by 6%
Paul was expected to get 24%, got 29%. Outperformed by 5%
Huntsman was expected to get 24% in PPP, got 27%. Outperformed by 3%

If GOP voters are as PPP was calling them, we'd have

Romney 36.7%
Paul 20.6%
Huntsman 17.8%

Given that all 3 candidates outperformed among Indys, they may also outperform among GOP, with Romney near 40%, Paul near 22%, Huntsman near 20%

harikaried
01-10-2012, 06:17 PM
CNN at some precinct:

4 bachmann
1 cain
403 huntsman
4 johnson
3 karger
341 paul
10 perry
10 roemer
921 romney
162 santorum

2140 ballots ?

eleganz
01-10-2012, 06:18 PM
goddamn huntsman...

KramerDSP
01-10-2012, 06:18 PM
CNN -

Romney - 927
Huntsman - 403
Paul - 341
Santorum - 150 some
Perry - 10

fisharmor
01-10-2012, 06:18 PM
I am always running into this stuff too! LOL= Laugh out Loud

Anyone want to tell me what "QFT" means?

Sorry, I have to do it....

http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=what+does+qft+mean

Deborah K
01-10-2012, 06:18 PM
How in the hell did Huntsman surge so fast?? Never mind....I know the answer. :mad:

GunnyFreedom
01-10-2012, 06:18 PM
Why did they change the polls close from 7 p.m. EST to 8 p.m.?

Some close at 7 some close at 8. It was always that way

Jtorsella
01-10-2012, 06:19 PM
daveweigel daveweigel
Ron Paul carries working class Manchester ward 5, 233 votes to 192 for Mitt. #fitn
41 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

ronpaulfollower999
01-10-2012, 06:19 PM
That's Manchester. (Results.)

V3n
01-10-2012, 06:19 PM
CNN -

Romney - 927
Huntsman - 403
Paul - 341
Santorum - 150 some
Perry - 10

Don't forget Buddy Roemer got 10 also! He's neck & neck with Rick Perry!!

eleganz
01-10-2012, 06:20 PM
daveweigel daveweigel
Ron Paul carries working class Manchester ward 5, 233 votes to 192 for Mitt. #fitn
41 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

Thank you!

Havax
01-10-2012, 06:21 PM
Romney 38%, Paul 23%, Huntsman 16%

growburn13
01-10-2012, 06:21 PM
Thought I heard 841 for Ron Paul but it was difficult to make out since they were cutting to the reporter right as she was announcing it.

sailingaway
01-10-2012, 06:21 PM
daveweigel daveweigel
Ron Paul carries working class Manchester ward 5, 233 votes to 192 for Mitt. #fitn
41 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

woot!

liberty2012
01-10-2012, 06:21 PM
..

ronpaulfollower999
01-10-2012, 06:21 PM
Rick Perry- 10 out of 2,900 is 0.003%

LOL