Suffolk/7News Tracking Poll (NH): 1/9/2012

[malkusm]

Daily change in parentheses:

Romney 33% (-2)
Paul 20% (0)
Huntsman 13% (+2)
Gingrich 11% (+2)
Santorum 10% (+2)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_NH_0109.pdf

[Dsylexic]

excellent.ideally we can afford to have 3 more pts to hunstman,steal a couple from grinchtorum and have romney at 29 tomorow

[jrskblx125]

This is the 9th and not the 8th? Numbers look the same as yesterday thats why i ask.

[asurfaholic]

Hm grinch may get 3rd... over huntsman. That isnt preferable imo

[BUSHLIED]

No crosstabs...would be helpful to see how we are doing in sub-categories.

[Todd]

Daily change in parentheses:

Romney 33% (-2)
Paul 20% (0)
Huntsman 13% (+2)
Gingrich 11% (+2)
Santorum 10% (+2)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Suffolk_NH_0109.pdf

Malkus.....how do you like this poll compared to other's for accuracy?

[sailingaway]

excellent.ideally we can afford to have 3 more pts to hunstman,steal a couple from grinchtorum and have romney at 29 tomorow

not hardly. the PPP poll had us closer, mind you it was the closest. I'm not sure pollsters are good at finding cross over and independent voters and both we and Huntsman rely on them.

[KingNothing]

Boy, I hope we can turn out all of the Free Staters. That would be a tremendous bonus, on top of these numbers.

[BUSHLIED]

For what it is worth the 2008 NH final Suffolk poll had Paul at 5% and he got 7.7%. Further they missed McCain's surge to win there too. Also, it was the only polling company that had Romney in the lead out of the other 7 polls conducted during the days before NH. They had him in the lead for the last three polls they conducted while everyone else had McCain. I think we should be looking at other polls.

SUFFOLK (1/6- 1/7) Tracking in 2008 had Romney +4. McCain won by 5.5%.

Winner: McCain 26
Romney 30
Huckabee 13
Giuliani 11
Paul 5
Thompson 2

[Tyler_Durden]

How is Newt gaining? Geez..........

[limequat]

How is Newt gaining? Geez..........

Dead cat bounce.

[KingNothing]

Dead fat bounce.

FIFY

[Liberty74]

In order for Paul to be at 20 when he was at 23 is a bad polling day and vice versa for Huntsman?

[tremendoustie]

Boy, I hope we can turn out all of the Free Staters. That would be a tremendous bonus, on top of these numbers.

There's only 1000 of us ;). Huge impact when it comes to activism -- getting folks elected, bills passed, etc -- but when it comes down to a straight vote, we're only 0.1% of the state.

But I would say half of the RP volunteers/activists I know are FSPers -- and nearly every FSPer I know will be voting for him.

Many of those legislative endorsements are from FSPers too.

[wgadget]

I saw them talking about this poll on FauxNews.

WOOT. Go, Ron!

[ItsTime]

7 points in less than 24 hours, I doubt that will happen. Lucky me gets to poll watch at a trouble area tomorrow...Lucky I get my very own lawyer wooot haha

[MR2Fast2Catch]

Wow, Romney's numbers in NH have gone down a lot in the past week.

[pauliticalfan]

I would be happy if we were actually seeing some more movement. If these numbers hold, though, it will be good.

[jersdream]

In order for Paul to be at 20 when he was at 23 is a bad polling day and vice versa for Huntsman?

23 was in another poll...

This is the highest Ron has ever been in that poll. Two days in a row of 20%...

[wgadget]

The story on Faux News was that HILLARY beat OBAMA last time around. Obama was ahead by 13 points, I believe, but Hillary ended up winning NH.

[jax]

The story on Faux News was that HILLARY beat OBAMA last time around. Obama was ahead by 13 points, I believe, but Hillary ended up winning NH.

maybe ron should shed a tear for liberty

[jay_dub]

I saw some official from NH being interviewed that said it would be a loss for Romney if he got below 35% due to expectations. If Ron can hold second and Mitt is brought down below his expected margin, that would be incredible!!

[JJ2]

How is Newt gaining? Geez..........

The debates.

Paul got no airtime.

Disgusting.

[No Free Beer]

just read the cross tabs.

It is highly unlikely that Huntsman receives all those undersides (12 percent)

[UNC08]

I saw it said recently (by the campaign?) that we were the second choice for a much larger percentage of voters than we were in New Hampshire. That could help us if this thing looks like it is going to be close -- people will want to back a winner.

What time do the polls open and close?

[Omnica]

Hart's Location

[Omnica]

Hart's Location and Dixville Notch

Should open at midnight

Both of these precincts are the first to open at midnight tonight, I believe...

[Liberty74]

maybe ron should shed a tear for liberty

Didn't Ron's wife get pushed around today at an event?

Wonder if this is receiving any news story time there in NH...

[Omnica]

Hart's Location and Dixville Notch

Should open at midnight

Both of these precincts are the first to open at midnight tonight, I believe...

[Omnica]

DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. -- Voters in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location will be the first to cast their ballots in Tuesday's first-in-the-nation primary.
Nine residents of Dixville Notch will cast their ballots just after midnight Tuesday. Two of those voters are registered Democrats, three are registered Republicans and four are undecided.
The ballots will only take a couple of minutes to count.
Even though the Balsams Resort is closed for renovation work, the hotel will reopen for this traditional voting event.
Residents of Hart's Location will also cast their ballots at midnight on Tuesday.

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/new-hampshire-primary-extended-coverage/30165353/detail.html#ixzz1j0AqrcZc

[Omnica]

More information about Hart's Location
http://www.conwaydailysun.com/node/482259/18661

[PauliticsPolitics]

Here are the crosstabs:
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_Jan_9.pdf

( (http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_Jan_9.pdf)maybe put this is the OP)

[Liberty Shark]

New Hampshire can change very quickly, and it seems as though a large percentage of people in NH are still undecided. In the past, up to 20% of NH voters have not made their decision until election day. I don't think any of these polls are necessarily reflective of what the actual vote will be, but they do give you a general idea of the dynamics of the race. I think we can safely say that Dr. Paul has a very good opportunity for a strong second place, hopefully - but Huntsman could make this close.

[parocks]

Here are the crosstabs:
http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_Jan_9.pdf

( (http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_NH_Tables_Jan_9.pdf)maybe put this is the OP)

getting killed with 65+ women

good everywhere else