1836
01-09-2012, 03:59 AM
It's getting to crunch time. There are three major primaries left in January and there are a total of 6 candidates. What happens from here on out?
These primaries are going to be tipping points for the non-Romney/Paul candidates. In other words, finish position and vote percentage in these primaries will determine who is in and who is out by the time South Carolina wraps up. How does that look? Let's consider these primaries one by one.
New Hampshire
Tipping Point for Jon Huntsman
There is only one candidate who would exit the race after New Hampshire, and his name is Jon Huntsman. Huntsman has bet the farm on a strong showing in the Granite State. He has spent millions on a relatively fruitless candidacy, but similarly (though to a lesser extent) to Santorum, is surging at the right time for a good finish. The difficulty is in assessing where Huntsman keeps going and where he drops out.
First, let's look at what he himself has said. Here is from USA Today, Sunday:
"We have to clear the hurdle that the pundits set for us," Huntsman said in an interview at a Manchester hotel. "In other words, we have to beat market expectations.
"I can't quantify that for you exactly."
In the same article he said, and this is key (emphasis mine):
As for his goals in Tuesday's primary, Huntsman said, "there are always multiple tickets coming out of New Hampshire."
"It's hard to know how many there will be this time," he said.
Hmm. What is he trying to say here? He wants to beat expectations and yet, there are multiple tickets out of New Hampshire.
One axiom that always holds true in primaries is that fourth place is a loss in a presidential primary. Self-evidently, no candidate can consider himself to have won much of anything if he finishes fourth. The media, and certainly the public, are only willing to extend some amount of credit to those candidates who finish in the top three, depending on the state and situation.
Therefore, we know that fourth or lower in NH equals an exit for Huntsman.
However, recent polls make such a scenario unlikely to the aforementioned "Huntsman surge."
PPP's most recent poll has Huntsman at 16%, behind Ron Paul at 18% and Romney at 35%. Gingrich is at 12% and Santorum is at 11%. Perry is a non-factor, registering 1 percent in the last 8 polls posted on Real Clear Politics. Gingrich appears to be mostly skipping over New Hampshire in favor of South Carolina, same for Santorum. Therefore, it is highly likely Huntsman "makes the cut" in terms of the top three.
What percentage, then, could keep Huntsman in the race? He's not polling well in other states (4% in South Carolina, 1% nationally, 1% or so in Florida). It is clear that he would really need to do well. Here are a few possibilities for the New Hampshire primary, and my assessment of whether or not Huntsman would hang around in each.
Scenario 1: Romney Blowout, Huntsman Clear 3rd
Mitt Romney 45%
Ron Paul 20%
Jon Huntsman 15%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Here, Huntsman certainly does well, but loses clearly to both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. Despite this being a third place finish, I would have to say that in this scenario, Huntsman drops out.
Scenario 2: Romney Blowout, Paul and Huntsman Essentially Tie for 2nd
Mitt Romney 40%
Ron Paul 20%
Jon Huntsman 20%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Romney's percentage is going to be lower if Huntsman does better, because they share many of the same voters. Here, Huntsman and Ron Paul would just about tie for second. Huntsman would be able to market this as having beat expectations with less money and so on. It is hard to imagine what he could do beyond this, but I think in this scenario, Huntsman stays in the race, at least for a little while. Because he would be near the bottom in both South Carolina and Florida, perhaps he would hang around to Super Tuesday? Hard to say what an egotistical presidential candidate will do.
Scenario 3: Romney Win, Paul Close Second
Mitt Romney 35%
Ron Paul 30%
Jon Huntsman 15%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Here, Ron Paul comes much closer to Romney than expected, Huntsman hanging down around 15%. I would say that here, Huntsman drops out.
Scenario 4: Romney, Paul, Huntsman Cluster
Mitt Romney 28%
Ron Paul 26%
Jon Huntsman 26%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
A nightmare scenario for Romney that is very much within the realm of possibility if independents turn out strongly for Paul and moderates swing to Huntsman. Clearly here, Huntsman stays in. Especially if he manages to barely edge Paul for second, but even a close third does it.
Scenario 5: Paul Wins, Romney Second
Ron Paul 35%
Mitt Romney 30%
Jon Huntsman 15%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Talk about a real nightmare for Romney! Huntsman probably drops out. However....
Scenario 5: Paul Wins, Huntsman Second
Ron Paul 31%
Jon Huntsman 25%
Mitt Romney 24%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Here, Huntsman stays in. This would torpedo Romney's chances in later states and Huntsman would truly get a boost. Needless to say, this is a dream scenario for our guy too!
Scenario 6: Huntsman Wins
Jon Huntsman 30%
Mitt Romney 29%
Ron Paul 21%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Obviously, Huntsman would not only stay in, but shoot to the top-tier nationally.
On balance I think we can safely say that if Huntsman comes in third, he needs around 20% to stay in the race. Anything better, finish wise or percentage wise, he stays in. Anything lower than 20% and in third probably means dropping out unless he is very close to Ron Paul's second place finish. If Ron Paul were to win and Huntsman came in third, but close to Romney, he might stay in. But likely, his tipping point is 20%, and 3rd or better.
South Carolina
Tipping Point for Perry, Santorum, Gingrich
This is going to be the clearing house for the nomination fight. Whoever does well enough here will hang around until at least Florida, and whoever doesn't do well will drop out.
South Carolina has never really had "tickets" like the other primaries have had. It is clear, however, that a third place finish can ruin a candidate here. Fred Thompson, after running a horrible campaign, bet the farm on South Carolina in 2008. After finishing 3rd with 16%, he dropped out. Unfortunately for Fred, he had already quit Law and Order.
Three candidates need to do well here, Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry. Oddly, only Rick Perry is sure to drop out if things don't pan out here, which they won't for him. In any scenario I will present, Perry will drop out. His recent poll numbers in South Carolina peg him at 5%, and I don't see him much improving from that.
The tougher question is what happens with Gingrich and Santorum. It is very likely that they will both finish in the top three. Santorum, given his newly found "top-tier" status nationally, plus the fact that he is not a current office holder and conceivably has nothing to lose, is unlikely to drop out unless he truly blows it here. His prospects for Florida do not look good at all. What of Newt, though?
Newt's in a similar situation. He is old, this is probably his one and only shot, and he has nothing to lose. However, he is also perhaps smart enough to know when he's finished and back a winning horse. His clear anger towards Mitt Romney means it is almost certain that in a losing scenario, he jumps on Santorum's bandwagon. The question is whether South Carolina would kick him out of the field.
Romney is likely to win South Carolina, but he is obviously not dropping out no matter how he places. However, his votes can be held relatively constant here. He is not going to get 40% as is possible for him in New Hampshire. But the lower his vote total, the better the other top two in South Carolina will look.
I'm willing to say that if anyone finishes ahead of Romney in South Carolina, they are going to stay in the race.
I'm also going to take Jon Huntsman out of these numbers, because in all likelihood, he doesn't factor in South Carolina even if he stays in the race. If he does well in South Carolina, well for him would mean around 10%. Let's keep him out.
Here are several possible scenarios exploring these candidates and what might knock them out of contention.
Scenario 1: Romney Wins, Santorum Second
Mitt Romney 35%
Rick Santorum 25%
Newt Gingrich 20%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Here, Newt probably drops out, Santorum stays in.
Scenario 2: Romney Wins, Gingrich Second
Mitt Romney 35%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Rick Santorum 20%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Here, Newt and Santorum both stay in. Newt can claim that he overperformed, and he goes on to Florida. Santorum would be rather heavily damaged, but would stay in.
Scenario 3: Santorum Wins, Romney Second
Rick Santorum 30%
Mitt Romney 28%
Newt Gingrich 22%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Newt probably stays in, and Santorum hails a major victory that surely damages Romney going into Florida. The reason Newt would stay in here is that his prospects in Florida look much better if Romney is damaged.
Scenario 4: Santorum Wins, Gingrich Second
Rick Santorum 30%
Newt Gingrich 26%
Mitt Romney 24%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Here is a Romney nightmare scenario. Gingrich and Santorum would both clearly have a huge boost out of this, and particularly Gingrich would be able to ride into Florida with a very real chance to beat Mitt there.
Scenario 5: Clustered Finish
Rick Santorum 25%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Mitt Romney 25%
Ron Paul 20%
Rick Perry 5%
Something like this is not altogether impossible given present poll numbers, and assuming a small Ron Paul surge, perhaps coming off of a strong second-place New Hampshire finish. In this case, all but Perry hang around and very likely, Romney is seriously damaged no matter whether he comes in first, second, or third among a clustered field like this, but especially if he comes in third. Big winner in this scenario is Gingrich, who lives to fight another day.
Scenario 6: Paul Third Ahead of Gingrich
Mitt Romney 35%
Rick Santorum 25%
Ron Paul 20%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Gingrich out, and this is perhaps the best realistic scenario for Paul at this point, a strong 3rd.
Scenario 7: Paul Third Ahead of Santorum
Mitt Romney 35%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Ron Paul 20%
Rick Santorum 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Perhaps the only scenario where Rick Santorum reassesses his candidacy and drops out, finishing fourth in South Carolina. Because if he can't at least finish in the top three, he has to get out. Especially if Ron Paul beats him. Obviously, this would be a triumph for Newt of epic proportions.
Santorum needs 20% or higher to prove he can do well in a socially conservative state, what should be his bread and butter. But as long as he does that and stays in the top three, he will hang around. Newt Gingrich will drop out unless he is able to finish a very strong third indeed or an outright second. Either will probably drop out if Ron Paul beats them to third place. That would be an embarrassment to either candidacy, and one would endorse the other. They both hate Romney and Paul. Perry's goose is cooked in South Carolina, and I highly doubt he cracks double digits no matter how much he spends. I don't see Gingrich winning in South Carolina no matter what happens. However, a Santorum win and Gingrich second is possible.
IF Gingrich does well enough in South Carolina, he earns a chance to compete in Florida, where the only recent numbers available showed him doing very well against Mitt Romney. Without a doubt, those numbers have come down, but the older demographic there is a pump primed for Gingrich. Santorum needs to prove himself, and a poor enough finish could kill him.
Regardless of what happens, I feel very confident that after South Carolina, there will only be four candidates in the race. Very possibly three. That's when the real fun begins.
These primaries are going to be tipping points for the non-Romney/Paul candidates. In other words, finish position and vote percentage in these primaries will determine who is in and who is out by the time South Carolina wraps up. How does that look? Let's consider these primaries one by one.
New Hampshire
Tipping Point for Jon Huntsman
There is only one candidate who would exit the race after New Hampshire, and his name is Jon Huntsman. Huntsman has bet the farm on a strong showing in the Granite State. He has spent millions on a relatively fruitless candidacy, but similarly (though to a lesser extent) to Santorum, is surging at the right time for a good finish. The difficulty is in assessing where Huntsman keeps going and where he drops out.
First, let's look at what he himself has said. Here is from USA Today, Sunday:
"We have to clear the hurdle that the pundits set for us," Huntsman said in an interview at a Manchester hotel. "In other words, we have to beat market expectations.
"I can't quantify that for you exactly."
In the same article he said, and this is key (emphasis mine):
As for his goals in Tuesday's primary, Huntsman said, "there are always multiple tickets coming out of New Hampshire."
"It's hard to know how many there will be this time," he said.
Hmm. What is he trying to say here? He wants to beat expectations and yet, there are multiple tickets out of New Hampshire.
One axiom that always holds true in primaries is that fourth place is a loss in a presidential primary. Self-evidently, no candidate can consider himself to have won much of anything if he finishes fourth. The media, and certainly the public, are only willing to extend some amount of credit to those candidates who finish in the top three, depending on the state and situation.
Therefore, we know that fourth or lower in NH equals an exit for Huntsman.
However, recent polls make such a scenario unlikely to the aforementioned "Huntsman surge."
PPP's most recent poll has Huntsman at 16%, behind Ron Paul at 18% and Romney at 35%. Gingrich is at 12% and Santorum is at 11%. Perry is a non-factor, registering 1 percent in the last 8 polls posted on Real Clear Politics. Gingrich appears to be mostly skipping over New Hampshire in favor of South Carolina, same for Santorum. Therefore, it is highly likely Huntsman "makes the cut" in terms of the top three.
What percentage, then, could keep Huntsman in the race? He's not polling well in other states (4% in South Carolina, 1% nationally, 1% or so in Florida). It is clear that he would really need to do well. Here are a few possibilities for the New Hampshire primary, and my assessment of whether or not Huntsman would hang around in each.
Scenario 1: Romney Blowout, Huntsman Clear 3rd
Mitt Romney 45%
Ron Paul 20%
Jon Huntsman 15%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Here, Huntsman certainly does well, but loses clearly to both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. Despite this being a third place finish, I would have to say that in this scenario, Huntsman drops out.
Scenario 2: Romney Blowout, Paul and Huntsman Essentially Tie for 2nd
Mitt Romney 40%
Ron Paul 20%
Jon Huntsman 20%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Romney's percentage is going to be lower if Huntsman does better, because they share many of the same voters. Here, Huntsman and Ron Paul would just about tie for second. Huntsman would be able to market this as having beat expectations with less money and so on. It is hard to imagine what he could do beyond this, but I think in this scenario, Huntsman stays in the race, at least for a little while. Because he would be near the bottom in both South Carolina and Florida, perhaps he would hang around to Super Tuesday? Hard to say what an egotistical presidential candidate will do.
Scenario 3: Romney Win, Paul Close Second
Mitt Romney 35%
Ron Paul 30%
Jon Huntsman 15%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Here, Ron Paul comes much closer to Romney than expected, Huntsman hanging down around 15%. I would say that here, Huntsman drops out.
Scenario 4: Romney, Paul, Huntsman Cluster
Mitt Romney 28%
Ron Paul 26%
Jon Huntsman 26%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
A nightmare scenario for Romney that is very much within the realm of possibility if independents turn out strongly for Paul and moderates swing to Huntsman. Clearly here, Huntsman stays in. Especially if he manages to barely edge Paul for second, but even a close third does it.
Scenario 5: Paul Wins, Romney Second
Ron Paul 35%
Mitt Romney 30%
Jon Huntsman 15%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Talk about a real nightmare for Romney! Huntsman probably drops out. However....
Scenario 5: Paul Wins, Huntsman Second
Ron Paul 31%
Jon Huntsman 25%
Mitt Romney 24%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Here, Huntsman stays in. This would torpedo Romney's chances in later states and Huntsman would truly get a boost. Needless to say, this is a dream scenario for our guy too!
Scenario 6: Huntsman Wins
Jon Huntsman 30%
Mitt Romney 29%
Ron Paul 21%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%
Obviously, Huntsman would not only stay in, but shoot to the top-tier nationally.
On balance I think we can safely say that if Huntsman comes in third, he needs around 20% to stay in the race. Anything better, finish wise or percentage wise, he stays in. Anything lower than 20% and in third probably means dropping out unless he is very close to Ron Paul's second place finish. If Ron Paul were to win and Huntsman came in third, but close to Romney, he might stay in. But likely, his tipping point is 20%, and 3rd or better.
South Carolina
Tipping Point for Perry, Santorum, Gingrich
This is going to be the clearing house for the nomination fight. Whoever does well enough here will hang around until at least Florida, and whoever doesn't do well will drop out.
South Carolina has never really had "tickets" like the other primaries have had. It is clear, however, that a third place finish can ruin a candidate here. Fred Thompson, after running a horrible campaign, bet the farm on South Carolina in 2008. After finishing 3rd with 16%, he dropped out. Unfortunately for Fred, he had already quit Law and Order.
Three candidates need to do well here, Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry. Oddly, only Rick Perry is sure to drop out if things don't pan out here, which they won't for him. In any scenario I will present, Perry will drop out. His recent poll numbers in South Carolina peg him at 5%, and I don't see him much improving from that.
The tougher question is what happens with Gingrich and Santorum. It is very likely that they will both finish in the top three. Santorum, given his newly found "top-tier" status nationally, plus the fact that he is not a current office holder and conceivably has nothing to lose, is unlikely to drop out unless he truly blows it here. His prospects for Florida do not look good at all. What of Newt, though?
Newt's in a similar situation. He is old, this is probably his one and only shot, and he has nothing to lose. However, he is also perhaps smart enough to know when he's finished and back a winning horse. His clear anger towards Mitt Romney means it is almost certain that in a losing scenario, he jumps on Santorum's bandwagon. The question is whether South Carolina would kick him out of the field.
Romney is likely to win South Carolina, but he is obviously not dropping out no matter how he places. However, his votes can be held relatively constant here. He is not going to get 40% as is possible for him in New Hampshire. But the lower his vote total, the better the other top two in South Carolina will look.
I'm willing to say that if anyone finishes ahead of Romney in South Carolina, they are going to stay in the race.
I'm also going to take Jon Huntsman out of these numbers, because in all likelihood, he doesn't factor in South Carolina even if he stays in the race. If he does well in South Carolina, well for him would mean around 10%. Let's keep him out.
Here are several possible scenarios exploring these candidates and what might knock them out of contention.
Scenario 1: Romney Wins, Santorum Second
Mitt Romney 35%
Rick Santorum 25%
Newt Gingrich 20%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Here, Newt probably drops out, Santorum stays in.
Scenario 2: Romney Wins, Gingrich Second
Mitt Romney 35%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Rick Santorum 20%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Here, Newt and Santorum both stay in. Newt can claim that he overperformed, and he goes on to Florida. Santorum would be rather heavily damaged, but would stay in.
Scenario 3: Santorum Wins, Romney Second
Rick Santorum 30%
Mitt Romney 28%
Newt Gingrich 22%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Newt probably stays in, and Santorum hails a major victory that surely damages Romney going into Florida. The reason Newt would stay in here is that his prospects in Florida look much better if Romney is damaged.
Scenario 4: Santorum Wins, Gingrich Second
Rick Santorum 30%
Newt Gingrich 26%
Mitt Romney 24%
Ron Paul 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Here is a Romney nightmare scenario. Gingrich and Santorum would both clearly have a huge boost out of this, and particularly Gingrich would be able to ride into Florida with a very real chance to beat Mitt there.
Scenario 5: Clustered Finish
Rick Santorum 25%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Mitt Romney 25%
Ron Paul 20%
Rick Perry 5%
Something like this is not altogether impossible given present poll numbers, and assuming a small Ron Paul surge, perhaps coming off of a strong second-place New Hampshire finish. In this case, all but Perry hang around and very likely, Romney is seriously damaged no matter whether he comes in first, second, or third among a clustered field like this, but especially if he comes in third. Big winner in this scenario is Gingrich, who lives to fight another day.
Scenario 6: Paul Third Ahead of Gingrich
Mitt Romney 35%
Rick Santorum 25%
Ron Paul 20%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Gingrich out, and this is perhaps the best realistic scenario for Paul at this point, a strong 3rd.
Scenario 7: Paul Third Ahead of Santorum
Mitt Romney 35%
Newt Gingrich 25%
Ron Paul 20%
Rick Santorum 15%
Rick Perry 5%
Perhaps the only scenario where Rick Santorum reassesses his candidacy and drops out, finishing fourth in South Carolina. Because if he can't at least finish in the top three, he has to get out. Especially if Ron Paul beats him. Obviously, this would be a triumph for Newt of epic proportions.
Santorum needs 20% or higher to prove he can do well in a socially conservative state, what should be his bread and butter. But as long as he does that and stays in the top three, he will hang around. Newt Gingrich will drop out unless he is able to finish a very strong third indeed or an outright second. Either will probably drop out if Ron Paul beats them to third place. That would be an embarrassment to either candidacy, and one would endorse the other. They both hate Romney and Paul. Perry's goose is cooked in South Carolina, and I highly doubt he cracks double digits no matter how much he spends. I don't see Gingrich winning in South Carolina no matter what happens. However, a Santorum win and Gingrich second is possible.
IF Gingrich does well enough in South Carolina, he earns a chance to compete in Florida, where the only recent numbers available showed him doing very well against Mitt Romney. Without a doubt, those numbers have come down, but the older demographic there is a pump primed for Gingrich. Santorum needs to prove himself, and a poor enough finish could kill him.
Regardless of what happens, I feel very confident that after South Carolina, there will only be four candidates in the race. Very possibly three. That's when the real fun begins.