Ron Paul is Surging at the right time.

[Evilfox]

I have been following this man for quite some time now. And I must say over the last 48hours I have never seen him so confident and so smooth with the delivery of the message. I don't know what is going on, maybe he sees the end game and being in the oval office but something over the last week has changed. His confidence is surging at the right time, both debates he rocked, this campaign event he just had in New Hampshire he absolutely killed. He even has people at this event who might be voting for him driving from miles away just to see him in person. Thoughts...

[FreeTraveler]

Yeah, I can see it too. It's like he's gotten over some hump of some sort; whether it was physical (he seemed out of sorts for a few days) or psychological, some switch has tripped and we're seeing a slightly revised version of the Dr. Paul we all know and love. Nothing's changed in his philosophy, but something's clicked in his psyche.

I think, just perhaps, he's realized it's not just an educational effort anymore, and he really can see himself in the oval office. Who was it who asked him if he envisioned that the other day? Maybe that's the switch that was thrown.

[noxnoctum]

Will it be enough to close the gap though in 2 days?

I'm just worried about SC (where I am). People here are huge hawks.

[Trigonx]

I'm feeling good too, but we need to push the meme of Ron Paul surging. Post articles and tweet articles that have Ron Paul surging.

from another thread: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?348048-IBT-quot-New-Hampshire-Primary-2012-Shocker-Paul-Only-15-Pct-Behind-Romney-quot
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/278420/20120108/new-hampshire-primary-2012-shocker-paul-15.htm

[mport1]

Agreed. I think the Iowa numbers have him very excited for the future of liberty. He can now more than ever see the HUGE effect his campaign is having.

[Ixzion]

I think this is the case. He's seeing his polling numbers growing day by day and he can finally see proof that he's being vindicated. That gives him more energy to say it loud.

[Mckarnin]

Agreed. I think the Iowa numbers have him very excited for the future of liberty. He can now more than ever see the HUGE effect his campaign is having.

This. Talk about a morale boost after so many years of being the voice crying out in the wilderness.

[BUSHLIED]

HUNTSMAN SURGE

Where does the Huntsman votes come from?? If he is sitting at 10% and he needs another 10% to get second. He would have to pull from each candidate to put that 10% together. I doubt he is going to pull from Ron's 20%. Therefore, he could pull from Romney, Santorum, Newt, or Perry. But who out of those are going to jump to Huntsman. Only soft Paul or Romney voters are going to jump to Huntsman. My guess is that if Huntsman surges, he could pull several percent from Romney but not enough to overtake Paul for Second.

[hammy]

I think Ron has flipped the switch. I think he sees that he now has a real and serious chance to win. I think playtime is over. The very fact that he's attacking other candidates I believe says enough.

[rblgenius]

THE RON RAPIDLY RISING IS OCCURING

[runningdiz]

HUNTSMAN SURGE

Where does the Huntsman votes come from?? If he is sitting at 10% and he needs another 10% to get second. He would have to pull from each candidate to put that 10% together. I doubt he is going to pull from Ron's 20%. Therefore, he could pull from Romney, Santorum, Newt, or Perry. But who out of those are going to jump to Huntsman. Only soft Paul or Romney voters are going to jump to Huntsman. My guess is that if Huntsman surges, he could pull several percent from Romney but not enough to overtake Paul for Second.

Ummm this thread is about Ron Paul's surge. Why are you talking about a Huntsman one?

[BUSHLIED]

Ummm this thread is about Ron Paul's surge. Why are you talking about a Huntsman one?

Cause Ron's surge in Iowa was blunted by Santorum. And Ron's NH surge may very well be blunted by Huntsman so they say....

[Liberty74]

According to Suffolk Ron is surging a little. But PPP is saying something totally different i.e. Huntsman could come in second???

I want to believe the surge is happening for us but I just don't see it yet besides people here making the assumption all day.

[KingNothing]

HUNTSMAN SURGE

Where does the Huntsman votes come from?? If he is sitting at 10% and he needs another 10% to get second. He would have to pull from each candidate to put that 10% together. I doubt he is going to pull from Ron's 20%. Therefore, he could pull from Romney, Santorum, Newt, or Perry. But who out of those are going to jump to Huntsman. Only soft Paul or Romney voters are going to jump to Huntsman. My guess is that if Huntsman surges, he could pull several percent from Romney but not enough to overtake Paul for Second.

I think that's a valid assessment.

Huntsman won't really be pulling from Paul's current support, though he could pull from the pool of potential Paul supporters. Huntsman will likely peal voters away from Romney and possibly Newt. I can't see him winning many, if any, of Santorum's backers. Perry... well... he doesn't really have any supporters in NH.

That said, it's also important to remember that around 15-percent of voters are undecided. It's entirely possible, though unlikely imo, that Huntsman could double his current level of support and reach 20-percent.

[BUSHLIED]

RCP AVG:

Romney: 40.2%
Ron Paul: 20.8%
Santorum: 10.6%
Huntsman: 9.4%
Gingrich: 8.6%
Perry: 1%


The one constant is Ron's 20.8%. Assuming Huntsman can only pull from the other candidates, he would have to take 3.3 from Santorum, 3.3% from Romney, 3.3 from Gingrich...I doubt Perry is going to get 0%.

That leaves it as :

Romney 36.9
Paul 20.8%
Huntsman 19.3%
Santorum: 7.3%
Gingrich 5.3%
Perry 1%

He still needs another 2% to over take Paul. If the polls are accurate like they were in Iowa, NH voters would have to abandon another candidate fairly significantly to go over to Huntsman to overcome Paul. But who are they going to abandon that fits with Huntsman? Gingrich?

In Iowa Santorum, Santorum pulled from bachmann, perry, and gingrich...natural social conservatives.

Huntsman threatens Romney and Paul more than the others.

[KingNothing]

You aren't accounting for undecideds, and I don't think that you can assume Santorum voters would break towards Huntsman. They seem to be incompatible.

[BUSHLIED]

You aren't accounting for undecideds, and I don't think that you can assume Santorum voters would break towards Huntsman. They seem to be incompatible.

Correct. What I am suggesting is that Huntsman has a narrow base of support among the GOP and with Romney and Paul pulling most of the Independent Vote, it is going to be hard for Huntsman to pull out second place. 8% undecided. he would have to pull almost 80% of the undecided and that is unlikely.