ARG New Hampshire Poll:

[Jack Bauer]

Romney 40%, Huntsman 17%, Paul 16%, Santorum 12%

The fix is in. The Huntsman "surge" has arrived. Expect this to be the poll most cited in the media.

Jan 6th-7th.

Registered Republicans:
Romney 46%
Paul 14%
Huntsman 12%
Santorum 10%

Independents
Romney 30%
Huntsman 24%
Paul 20%
Santorum 15%.

Tea Party Supporters
Romney 33%
Gingrich 22%
Paul 15%
Santorum 15%


Among those LIKELY TO VOTE, Ron Paul at 23%. But that's not the criteria used by ARG. It won't be reported.


http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/nh/

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: Potential Screw Up with ARG numbers.

No wonder RCP thinks they are crap.

Discussion at: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?347729-Reported-ARG-poll-numbers-in-ERROR-spread-the-word!

[pauliticalfan]

Ugh, you've gotta be shitting me...

[axlr]

WTF

[bluesc]

Ha. That's crap. Wait for PPP tonight.

[jsem]

Lol @ Huntsman surge.

I knew he was coming, saw it several weeks ago.

We're gonna take a strong second still.

[LawnWake]

Totally didn't see that coming.


Ha. That's crap. Wait for PPP tonight.

Which will be underreported by the media compared to this one?

[JTforRP]

Damnit.

[Raudsarw]

It begins...

[nyrgoal99]

Paul only getting 20% of independents??? Huntsman 24%, Romney 30%

I will believe that when I see it

[Brett85]

This poll isn't even included in the RCP average. It's garbage.

[69360]

Knew it was coming.

[braane]

ARG is garbage... the Mitt Romney of polling.

[pauliticalfan]

This poll won't even be included in RCP. No need to bring attention to it. Let's focus on the CREDIBLE NBC poll just conducted. Paul 22%, Huntsman 9%.


NBC News / Marist
1/4-5/12; 711 likely Republican primary voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
NBC release

New Hampshire

2012 President: Republican Primary
42% Romney
22% Paul
13% Santorum
9% Gingrich
9% Huntsman
1% Perry

[bluesc]

This poll isn't even included in the RCP average. It's garbage.

Won't stop the media reporting on it to push their narrative.

Relax guys, we will have a real NH poll from PPP at 11PM ET.

[69360]

This poll isn't even included in the RCP average. It's garbage.

So what? It'll be all over faux and communist news network. That's all that matters.

[Jack Bauer]

ARG is garbage... the Mitt Romney of polling.

Whatever it is, this is the poll that will be cited in the media over and over and OVER again.

This is to NH what the CNN poll was to Iowa.

[cdc482]

Just in time for the debate discussions!

[RickyJ]

We all know ARG polls are a joke now. They have lost all credibility.

[pauliticalfan]

I swear if the media cites this poll instead of the half dozen others that have us in second, I'm gonna go off.

[69360]

In the long run it's better if the MSM burns through every possible anti-romney in the low delegate states. So don't sweat it too much. Ron and Romney are in it for the long haul, this is the last flavor of the month.

[sailingaway]

Heck, Iowa proved they can cause a surge of an unvetted nobody with a skewed poll....

And they are so different from all the other polls, why?

[joshnorris14]

People, don't panic. This weekends events are perfect for us. People won't pay attention to politics because you have 4 NFL playoff games this weekend and the College Football National Championship on Monday.

[RDM]

This is becoming a repeat to Iowa where Santorum was getting maybe 20-50 people at campaign stops and almost pulls a win in Iowa. Now Huntsman is averaging less than 75 people at his NH campaign stops and he's polling 2nd?

This crap is getting old.

[bobburn]

No one, not even the idiots at CNN and Fox News, believes anything put out by ARG. They're terrible. They've NEVER been right.

[jersdream]

PLEASE STOP SAYING THAT HUNTSMAN WON'T GET THIRD.

We did that in Iowa about Santorum and 2nd. People were laughing at him, what happened. The arrogance on this forum amazes me.

[Brett85]

So what? It'll be all over faux and communist news network. That's all that matters.

It won't matter as much as the debates in the next two days.

[jsem]

Huntsman is gonna get third, at least 15% I think. Paul's gonna break 20% for sure - he may even be in the 25% ball park. Romney will end up with less than 35%.

[Jack Bauer]

Registered Republicans:
Romney 46%
Paul 14%
Huntsman 12%
Santorum 10%

Independents
Romney 30%
Huntsman 24%
Paul 20%
Santorum 15%.

Tea Party Supporters
Romney 33%
Gingrich 22%
Paul 15%
Santorum 15%


Interesting.

[Omnica]

Reality is what you can get away with.

[doronster195]

There has to be a massive margin of error on this poll, considering that both Santorum and Huntsman have been polling in single digits in most other polls, and really low double digits (12-13..).

So, nothing to see here. Move it along.

[Omnica]

This is becoming a repeat to Iowa where Santorum was getting maybe 20-50 people at campaign stops and almost pulls a win in Iowa. Now Huntsman is averaging less than 75 people at his NH campaign stops and he's polling 2nd?

This crap is getting old.
Many Americans like being slaves.

[RickyJ]

This is becoming a repeat to Iowa where Santorum was getting maybe 20-50 people at campaign stops and almost pulls a win in Iowa. Now Huntsman is averaging less than 75 people at his NH campaign stops and he's polling 2nd?

This crap is getting old.

It's all part of rigging an election. Polling companies have to be in on it to give the rigged results credibility. That is more than likely exactly what happened in Iowa.

[rp2012win]

Preference by Likely to Vote:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Definite - 10 (97%) Probably 7-9 (3%)
Gingrich 12% 3%
Huntsman 11% 24%
Paul 23% 8%
Perry - 3%
Romney 35% 45%
Santorum 11% 13%
Other 2% 1%
Undecided 6% 3%


Among those likely to vote we are at 23%. Why did they not use these likely to vote numbers instead?

[SilentBull]

Huntsman will get a lot of time in the debates tonight and tomorrow. He'll probably be 2nd or 3rd as far as how long he gets to speak. And in the "analysis" they will push him hard. Forget this country. There's no way to stop what's coming. Not that we shouldn't keep trying, but history repeats itself because people are too fucking dumb to prevent it. Just the way it is.

[jamezelle]

ron paul is surging!

[lucent]

It's like we go through this every time ARG puts out a new poll.

[69360]

Honestly even if Huntsman pulls off a 3rd from a msm fluffing it won't matter in the long run. Frothy and Huntsman can't go the distance and this is the end of the flavor of the month. I'd rather they all burn out before super tuesday.

[Liberty Shark]

This one is nonsense. The Suffolk tracking poll from today shows nothing like that for Huntsman. Let's see what PPP says. Even if the media does use this poll, there really isn't very much time left, and with all of the football games, its not gonna happen.

[Omnica]

Dixville Notch and Hart's Location

[Jack Bauer]

ron paul is surging!

No, the last poll they had us at 21%. This poll we are at 16%. But in this same poll we are at 23% among those likely to vote but they did not use that as the criteria.

So although Ron Paul is surging, he really is not. :rolleyes:

[opinionatedfool]

What the heck? I hate ARG, but MSM will pick up on it.

[pauliticalfan]

CNN does cite ARG polls. I remember the day after the PPP poll came out, they decided to ignore it and show a BS ARG poll instead that had Ron at 17% (hmm, he actually finished at 21.4%, way higher than that.) Don't think the media won't use this to pump Hunstman. We have to be ready.

[happyphilter]

People keep knocking the poll, but don't forget how accurate they turned out to be in Iowa.

[LiveForHonortune]

Santorum used to be at 4% in Iowa so please be cautious


Here's the thing, there's a ridiculously massive chunk of undecided voters in NH right now. It could be anyone's game really except Romney will win, not much doubt about that...

[EndTheECB]

According to Suffolks latest poll (JH 9%), Huntsman would have gained over 8% the night between the 6th and 7th if this was true. I say it's planted in order to shift attention from Paul.

[sailingaway]

This one is nonsense. The Suffolk tracking poll from today shows nothing like that for Huntsman. Let's see what PPP says. Even if the media does use this poll, there really isn't very much time left, and with all of the football games, its not gonna happen.

Isn't PPP out tomorrow, not today?

[lucent]

People keep knocking the poll, but don't forget how accurate they turned out to be in Iowa.

Uh, you mean not very accurate?

[rblgenius]

Intradasting.

Why isn't this poll included in RCP average?

[RDM]

This one is nonsense. The Suffolk tracking poll from today shows nothing like that for Huntsman. Let's see what PPP says. Even if the media does use this poll, there really isn't very much time left, and with all of the football games, its not gonna happen.

Wasn't there football games in Iowa last week? Just sayin'

[JTforRP]

The media will use the shit out of this poll. It's the only one they'll use.

[The Gold Standard]

Won't stop the media reporting on it to push their narrative.

Relax guys, we will have a real NH poll from PPP at 11PM ET.

What difference does that make? This garbage poll will be all over the news networks for the next few days, the PPP poll won't if it tells a different story. Here is Huntsman's "surge" and we haven't done anything to expose him. We needed at least 2nd in New Hampshire. We can't let up at all when fighting the revolution we are fighting. The smears and propaganda and media boosts will continue nonstop until Ron drops out. We have to be proactive. We knew Huntsman was next for his "surge", and we did nothing to stop it.

[Oddone]

Intradasting.

Why isn't this poll included in RCP average?

Because they have accuracy issues. RCP doesn't trust their polls, as they do not meet the requirments to be on RCP.

[rblgenius]

Because they have accuracy issues. RCP doesn't trust their polls, as they do not meet the requirments to be on RCP.

Everyone keeps saying "dont worry everyone will watch playoff games"... didn't we say that about Iowa and the bowl games? Damn media. I'm not a conspiracy kind of guy but I honestly am starting to sway that way...

[Esoteric]

This poll isn't even included in the RCP average. It's garbage.

It will be. And it will be cited. And reality will then be self-fulfilling.

I feel like Howard Beale. My head is about to explode.

[lucent]

The only reason Santorum was able to gain steam was because people were already considering him from the Christian group endorsing him. Iowa isn't New Hampshire.

[69360]

Intradasting.

Why isn't this poll included in RCP average?

Doesn't meet the quality standards.



Everyone keeps saying "dont worry everyone will watch playoff games"... didn't we say that about Iowa and the bowl games? Damn media. I'm not a conspiracy kind of guy but I honestly am starting to sway that way...


The msm is powerful. But there is one thing to keep in mind. To beat Ron in IA took a combination of several things that won't happen in NH. Bachmann is already gone so her people can't side with somebody at the last minute. Pastors aren't as infulential in Nh and won't be able to herd all the sheeple to one candidate like they did with frothy in IA. Maybe huntsman can pass Ron for 2nd. But it's better he's burned out now.

[Oddone]

It will be. And it will be cited. And reality will then be self-fulfilling.

I feel like Howard Beale. My head is about to explode.

Why will it be? None of ARG's polls are. RCP refuses to use them.

[rp2012win]

Why doesnt ARG use the likely to vote numbers?

[PaulConventionWV]

This is a BS poll, but it doesn't matter because all they have to do is make people believe that Huntsman is surging. A little media manipulation, a little vote manipulation, and voila!

I've never been a violent man, but this really makes me angry.

[The_Ruffneck]

is this a joke?

[LiveForHonortune]

The debates can change everything... If everybody wasn't watching the owl.

But the media will pick up on stuff also is Ron watching the Texans right now?

[ropo]

ARG polls always make me go "ARG"!

[Ricky201]

Saw this coming from a mile away. It's disgusting. The media plays the game of "damage". Basically they start off with a fabrication or a lie of some sort and make a mountain out of a mole hill. Once the sheeple here about this fabrication, than it almost doesn't matter what you do to combat the lie, because the damage has already been done.

Some sheeple will get to only hear one side of the story and will have little to no interest hearing the truth.

The free staters in New Hampshire (which is unfortunate given these circumstances) and Tom Woods were completely right when they say the only way to beat the media is to create it.

I haven't payed much attention since Iowa, because I was disgusted with how powerful the MSM really is and it almost feels like we can't win under these circumstances.

[Liberty74]

So what? It'll be all over faux and communist news network. That's all that matters.

Exactly. Some people don't understand...

[RonPaulGangsta]

Huntsman surge is so obvious. And the media will push just as hard as the Santorum surge.

[moonshine5757]

Ron Paul needs to do more than disavow that youtube video. He needs to actually infer that Huntsman planted it, based on the fact that his website was the first to reference it.

[Liberty74]

PLEASE STOP SAYING THAT HUNTSMAN WON'T GET THIRD.

We did that in Iowa about Santorum and 2nd. People were laughing at him, what happened. The arrogance on this forum amazes me.

It amazes me too how delusional people are in the own little worlds. If we had built a wall of old Republican voters in Iowa like I said to do (you know, this is the Republican caucuses/primaries, we would have won Iowa). But no, everyone in here said to go after the youth (who don't vote) and the progressives. Really now?

[LibertyEagle]

I watched Gingrich's townhall thing in NH. So many people seem to be falling for these other guys, because they think Ron Paul's foreign policy is dangerous. I am no political expert, but I sure wish that the campaign would unleash one heck of a series of foreign policy ads; citing foreign policy experts' agreement with him and why they do.

[JJ2]

Among those LIKELY TO VOTE, Ron Paul at 23%. But that's not the criteria used by ARG. It won't be reported.


http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/nh/

Yeah, but that's 97% of the respondents! It says "Definite" voters is 97% and "Probably" is 3%. And yet Paul is beating Huntsman 23%-11% among "Definite" voters and Huntsman is beating Paul 24%-8% among "Probably."

So someone explain to me how they get 17% to 16%? It looks their numbers are a 50-50 split of the "Definite"/"Probably" numbers. Makes no sense to me.

Comparing it to their SC poll, it looks like they really made a mistake here. I don't think they would do something so obvious on purpose. (But who knows?!)

[Hoax]

Ron Paul needs to do more than disavow that youtube video. He needs to actually infer that Huntsman planted it, based on the fact that his website was the first to reference it.

He has. http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/01/paul-analysis-floats-huntsman-video-link-spokesman-109958.html

But the campaign needs to get on national TV and scream this. If it stays on the internet the talking heads will just ignore it.

[lucent]

It amazes me too how delusional people are in the own little worlds. If we had built a wall of old Republican voters in Iowa like I said to do (you know, this is the Republican caucuses/primaries, we would have won Iowa). But no, everyone in here said to go after the youth (who don't vote) and the progressives. Really now?

No one on this forum is going after anyone in Iowa. Almost all of us aren't in Iowa. You are delusional thinking that your comment on a forum is going to change anything.

[randomname]

Ron Paul needs to do more than disavow that youtube video. He needs to actually infer that Huntsman planted it, based on the fact that his website was the first to reference it.

The issue is that backfires if he didn't plant it. Plus that accusation was already made and the Huntsman campaign had a pretty plausible explanation for the reference.

[RonPaulRules]

We better do something now. Or well be crying again Tues night.

[John F Kennedy III]

This poll isn't even included in the RCP average. It's garbage.

They'll use it.

Ron gets 3rd in NH...

[RickyJ]

We better do something now. Or well be crying again Tues night.

Instead of a money bomb, let's have a vote bomb in NH! :D

[lucent]

The issue is that backfires if he didn't plant it. Plus that accusation was already made and the Huntsman campaign had a pretty plausible explanation for the reference.

It's not plausible. All web addresses going through Twitter are forwarded through Twitter's http://t.co domain and thus any address posted via Twitter feed on their website would look like it comes from Twitter.

[lucent]

I am so sick of hand wringers on this forum. It makes me just want to leave.


We better do something now. Or well be crying again Tues night.

Do what exactly?

[Liberty74]

No one on this forum is going after anyone in Iowa. Almost all of us aren't in Iowa. You are delusional thinking that your comment on a forum is going to change anything.

Sorry but you aren't understanding my point. And where in the heck did I say we were all in Iowa? Geez...

The bottom line is most people in here kept repeating that the youth and progressive vote was the strategy to win Iowa. I said something different and was rebutted by many. I turned out to be correct and now you are attacking me? Please! Anyone with half a brain knows that youth barely vote and that the old people do.

[silk30]

After Santorum, this should not be a surprise at all. I'll admit, I was caught totally off guard with the Santorum B.S from the media, but not this time. And not ever again. There is no length that the establishment and corporate media will not go to in order to stop or diminish the rise of Ron Paul. We will just have to work that much harder. And from what I have seen from RP supporters, that is exactly what we will end up doing! :)

[Carole]

Hah! Let's see if they can push Paul down as far as fourth and still be legitimate.

This poll reflects yet another artificial "surge" that just is not there-MSM driven entirely, plus some dirty tricks.

Will it be the "double (non) surge" this time. Both Huntsman and Santorum will surge?. Ridiculous!

Dr. Paul will end up fourth. they are timing this "pretend surge" better than the last one.

[JoshS]

This is just getting to be too disappointing. I don't even know what to say. I thought we had such a solid campaign but we get beat out by the MSM if they only dedicate 2 days toward a candidate.

[AgainAgain]

Pollster rankings, as done by Nate Silver: http://www.538host.com/pshort.png

Scroll to the bottom, ARG is awful (the lower the number, the better!).

[mosquitobite]

Pollster rankings, as done by Nate Silver: http://www.538host.com/pshort.png

Scroll to the bottom, ARG is awful (the lower the number, the better!).

Won't matter when they're blaring it all over the news.

[randomname]

tweet by Huntsman campaign

@Jon2012HQ: NEW POLL: @JonHuntsman now in 2ND PLACE in #NH! americanresearchgroup.com #FITN #SURGE

[ONUV]

Tea Party Supporters
Romney 33%
Gingrich 22%
Santorum 15%

tea party is dead.

[bluesc]

tweet by Huntsman campaign

Jon2012HQ: NEW POLL: @JonHuntsman now in 2ND PLACE in #NH! americanresearchgroup.com #FITN #SURGE

Hahaha.

[bluesc]

This is just getting to be too disappointing. I don't even know what to say. I thought we had such a solid campaign but we get beat out by the MSM if they only dedicate 2 days toward a candidate.

This is a BS poll.

[RickyJ]

tweet by Huntsman campaign

Jon2012HQ: NEW POLL: @JonHuntsman now in 2ND PLACE in #NH! americanresearchgroup.com #FITN #SURGE

I am sure he is very happy about his sudden surge. :D

It must have been quite a surprise to him considering the very small crowds that come out to see him.

[RonPaulRules]

Everyone is gonna say this is a BS poll, which it may be. But thats what we said about Iowa, and Santorum nearly came in first. I'm worried....

[lucent]

Everyone is gonna say this is a BS poll, which it may be. But thats what we said about Iowa, and Santorum nearly came in first. I'm worried....

Worrying accomplishes nothing. Hand wringing accomplishes nothing. Phone From Home accomplishes something. Praying accomplishes something.

[happyphilter]

Well I hope the campaign does something to combat this. Otherwise I'm all for tanking the GOP, screw them.

[bluesc]

Everyone is gonna say this is a BS poll, which it may be. But thats what we said about Iowa, and Santorum nearly came in first. I'm worried....

It wasn't only ARG showing Santorum climbing. Wait for PPP.

[happyphilter]

Need to prove that "Manchurian candidate" came from Huntsman ASAP.

[JoshS]

Well I hope the campaign does something to combat this. Otherwise I'm all for tanking the GOP, screw them.

And when that happens they win, they get Obama for 4 more years, like they want.

[The_Ruffneck]

Sorry but you aren't understanding my point. And where in the heck did I say we were all in Iowa? Geez...

The bottom line is most people in here kept repeating that the youth and progressive vote was the strategy to win Iowa. I said something different and was rebutted by many. I turned out to be correct and now you are attacking me? Please! Anyone with half a brain knows that youth barely vote and that the old people do.
lol Paul did win Iowa but there was vote fraud , exit polls had Paul at 29%....
i think we have the right strategy , most old people don't even use the internet and they've been fed MSM garbage for 60+ years so it is harder to break the conditioning.Even so the numbers for older people are better now than in 08'.

[RickyJ]

lol Paul did win Iowa but there was vote fraud , exit polls had Paul at 29%....
i think we have the right strategy , most old people don't even use the internet and they've been fed MSM garbage for 60+ years so it is harder to break the conditioning.Even so the numbers for older people are better now than in 08'.

I have told people about that poll. However it appears that poll was put out by a new polling company not established yet with no track record to go by. It may or may not be legit.

Considering the crowds that come out to see Ron Paul over other candidates though, I have to believe that it is legit.

[sailingaway]

Apparently their numbers calculation is in error at ARG

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?347729-Reported-ARG-poll-numbers-in-ERROR-spread-the-word!

[JohnGalt23g]

Jesus Christ, settle down!!

It's one fucking poll. And as far as I can tell, nobody is reporting on it. Not even RCP.

I swear to God, some of you have real persecution complexes working.

[tribute_13]

The vote wad broken down into Definite voters, and Probably voters. Definite made up 97% of the vote, Probably made up the other 3%. Paul beat Huntsman out of the probably voters. 23%-11%. Probably, Huntsman beat Paul 24% to 8%. However if you combine the two averages, there's no way Huntsman should be at 17%.