Ron Paul laying Nevada groundwork

[sailingaway]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/ron-paul-laying-nevada-groundwork/2012/01/06/gIQAZWeqfP_blog.html

[bluesc]

Are we actually expecting to win? Romney is aiming to swing through IA, NH SC, FL and NV with first places finishes in all of them. It's looking more and more likely. We need to be able to actually challenge him somewhere.

[Kevin Smyth]

Are we actually expecting to win? Romney is aiming to swing through IA, NH SC, FL and NV with first places finishes in all of them. It's looking more and more likely. We need to be able to actually challenge him somewhere.

Why would Romney win Nevada? What is that based on?

[pauliticalfan]

Why would Romney win Nevada? What is that based on?

Romney won Nevada in 2008. If he wins NH, SC, etc. I see no reason why he won't win it this time. That being said, we should be able to get a STRONG second place and rack up some delegates. I think we can win Louisiana and some of the western caucuses. Also, there's some delegates up for grabs in Puerto Rico and Guam that we could win.

[rideurlightning]

Why would Romney win Nevada? What is that based on?

He won Nevada back in '08.

[torchbearer]

LA= Paul.

[bluesc]

Why would Romney win Nevada? What is that based on?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/LDS_Percentage_of_Population_2000.PNG/380px-LDS_Percentage_of_Population_2000.PNG

[sailingaway]

Are we actually expecting to win? Romney is aiming to swing through IA, NH SC, FL and NV with first places finishes in all of them. It's looking more and more likely. We need to be able to actually challenge him somewhere.

We're in it for the long haul, for delegates.

[bluesc]

We're in it for the long haul, for delegates.

2nd place in every state means Romney will have the nomination locked up after Super Tuesday.

[TheTexan]

Are we actually expecting to win? Romney is aiming to swing through IA, NH SC, FL and NV with first places finishes in all of them. It's looking more and more likely. We need to be able to actually challenge him somewhere.

I'm thinking we gotta knock the other pieces off the board first. We're well on our way to doing that... just gotta hang in there until its Paul vs Romney and in the meantime get as many delegates as we can.

[TheTexan]

2nd place in every state means Romney will have the nomination locked up after Super Tuesday.

The stronger and more numerous our 2nd place finishes are, the faster we can make this a Paul & Romney show. Just really depends on how stubborn the Ovis aries wanna be. It'll happen eventually, we can only hope it happens before its too late.

[bbartlog]

We might be able to win NV. And Maine. And Minnesota. And Louisiana. Don't assume we're just going to get second place.

[Feelgood]

Ron did well in Nevada last time. He should do even better this time.

[Tyler_Durden]

We might be able to win NV. And Maine. And Minnesota. And Louisiana. Don't assume we're just going to get second place.

Momentum. Exposure. Falling dominos. Something we didn't have in 2007.

[joshnorris14]

2nd place in every state means Romney will have the nomination locked up after Super Tuesday.

Umm no. The winner take all states come way after Super Tuesday. Romney won't have enough delegates to lock it up until late.

[sailingaway]

2nd place in every state means Romney will have the nomination locked up after Super Tuesday.

I'm thinking we might get Minnesota and Washington maybe Louisiana. I'm not sure Romney gets enough delegates to lock it up with the proportional delegate rules and with Florida losing half of them (although I'm sure the party will give them back if that is what would make the difference.)

[bluesc]

I'm thinking we might get Minnesota and Washington maybe Louisiana. I'm not sure Romney gets enough delegates to lock it up with the proportional delegate rules and with Florida losing half of them (although I'm sure the party will give them back if that is what would make the difference.)

Super Tuesday primaries will kill us. Regardless of the proportional rule, there is no evidence that we can gain the number of votes needed in a huge primary state to compete. The campaign focusing on the few caucus states further pushes that meme.

After the voting becomes winner take all, there are only two caucus states left and a lot of primaries.

[Badger for Paul]

Those Nevada poll number from mid-Dec are horrible. How do we triple RP's support in Nevada? This will be the true test of whether pfh and the campaign strategy is successful. To be the best, you have to beat the best. If RP doesn't win more than one of the early Feb caucus states, it's over (except for possibly the brokered convention outcome which is unlikely)

[seapilot]

I think we will do fine in Nevada. At least a solid second and better than 08. We are making contact with a lot of supporters. Romney does have a lot of support there because of the LDS organization. We should give Romney a run for his money this time. Gingrich support is soft and could go to RP easily if he drops out by February.

[MyEyesTheyBurn]

I think we will do fine in Nevada. At least a solid second and better than 08. We are making contact with a lot of supporters. Romney does have a lot of support there because of the LDS organization. We should give Romney a run for his money this time. Gingrich support is soft and could go to RP easily if he drops out by February.
Last time didn't Ron Paul win all of Nevada's counties except Clark? I'm too lazy to dig up the old results...

[Badger Paul]

Gingrich isn't going to be around by the time of the caucuses.