Odds of any other current candidate going 3rd party?

[roc_rob]

If Ron Paul wins the nomination, then I do not doubt that he will share the national debate stage with another current Republican Party candidate. A conventional GOP challenger will be run against him with establishment backing under a different party name. While the party is divided now, it is prime time for any candidate to announce an independent run. Gingrich, for example, could ally with someone like Trump to "offer Americans a clear alternative to a weak and divided GOP." It would create a media frenzy.

All candidates are looking for ways to tap into the growing anti-establishment sentiment in our country. The GOP has an inconsistent ugly legacy, and a 3rd party ticket gives candidates more potential favor with independents, alongside whatever portion of the GOP base they pull away with their departure.

My question is, how do you feel a mainstream 3rd party candidate would affect Paul's campaign?

Do you see it as a likely event?

How could we fight it?

Consider that Cain's 'unconventional endorsement' announcement may not be a GOP candidate at all.

[rblgenius]

No. Lets worry about the nomination first. GOP will rally behind republican candidate. The libertarian wing won't.

[thoughtomator]

doesn't matter, RP is the only one whose supporters will vote for him no matter what line he is on - all the rest need party backing or they are nothing.

[Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul]

Buddy Roemer might run on a third party ticket :D

[CaptUSA]

It's a virtual certainty. When Paul wins, the establishment will run a third party candidate. They've been setting it up all year.

This one thing is for sure. The establishment fights amongst themselves for the power. They all want it and they want more of it. Along comes Ron Paul who wants to shrink that power, they won't really care who gets the power, but they sure as hell don't want it to be given back to the people. The people are not smart enough to handle the power themselves!

[Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul]

It's a virtual certainty. When Paul wins, the establishment will run a third party candidate. They've been setting it up all year.

This one thing is for sure. The establishment fights amongst themselves for the power. They all want it and they want more of it. Along comes Ron Paul who wants to shrink that power, they won't really care who gets the power, but they sure as hell don't want it to be given back to the people. The people are not smart enough to handle the power themselves!

I'm thinking on this. Will Fox News throw in all their support behind Ron Paul or will they try to descredit him?

[CaptUSA]

I'm thinking on this. Will Fox News throw in all their support behind Ron Paul or will they try to descredit him?Haven't you been watching? They will never support Ron Paul. It's not going to happen. Period.

[randomname]

I'm thinking on this. Will Fox News throw in all their support behind Ron Paul or will they try to descredit him?

My thinking is NEVER, Fox News is too infested with neocons who would rather even vote for Obama.

[Todd]

I'm telling you right now that I hear Trump everyday on Hannity and if Paul wins you can count on it that this dingleberry or someone else will jump in just to keep Paul out of the whitehouse.

[Xenophage]

Agree with the thread. I've been saying it all along. This is why I don't believe Ron Paul will ever be President.

But we'll fight for it anyway, tooth and nail, and in the end we'll win for liberty.

[CaptUSA]

I'm telling you right now that I hear Trump everyday on Hannity and if Paul wins you can count on it that this dingleberry or someone else will jump in just to keep Paul out of the whitehouse.I think they'll be able to find someone better than Trump, but he'll definitely support whoever that is.

[Svenskar_för_Ron_Paul]

Haven't you been watching? They will never support Ron Paul. It's not going to happen. Period.


My thinking is NEVER, Fox News is too infested with neocons who would rather even vote for Obama.

Well you see, this was what I was thinking. Will they promote Obama instead or some third party candidate?

Both would look pretty weird to most of the viewers I believe.

[roc_rob]

I think they'll be able to find someone better than Trump, but he'll definitely support whoever that is.

I agree, but could also see a more serious candidate using Trump as their VP pick for publicity. A 3rd party bid will need lots of press. Trump will bring that. He also hits the not-a-Washington-insider and has-private-sector-experience criteria that plays well with many. I personally see him as a fool, but he is an effective showman. I see Gingrich as most likely to make an early break, especially after his campaign's failure in Virginia.

They have been quite cozy. I would say it is within the realm of possibility.

[Johncjackson]

If Ron Paul wins GOP nom, and that is the catalyst for another establishment Republican to go 3rd party, It will be too late for them do so, unless they are able to hijack an existing party or will be happy being on very few ballots. Most 3rd parties can't get on more than a few ballots, and even the Libertarian Party has not been on 50 ballots in a long time. The Libertarian Party, while raising ballot access funds and paying professional petitioners year-round will probably be on 46 or 47 ballots. States have so many laws and have made it much tougher. Some states have very early deadlines, some have very late starting times and short windows. A couple states are almost impossible even with time and money.

You see what happened in Virginia Primary with the petition requirements. Imagine needing to do that ( or much more difficult) in every state for a brand new party or late entrant candidate.

That's why I think if Paul were going to go 3rd party/Ind. he would need to leave the GOP fairly soon, maybe March at the latest. I'm not saying I want him to, just that if he's going all the way to the GOP convention, I don't think that's the point of no return, win or lose he's Republican all the way.

Now, Paul certainly has the support base and cash to get petitioning done and go straight independent if he wants. But I think if he went LP, just as an example, the party and activists would take care of ballot access and his cash and activists could focus on the few states the LP has trouble with, through petitioning, and/or legal measures. The same would apply to anyone else, but no one in the LP is going to want Trump or any of those other clowns. And they wouldn't fit in the CP or GP, which are way worse off than the LP. Trump has the cash, but is he going to have a team that knows how ballot access works for Independents or 3rd parties? Is he going to have someone with experience running ballot access drives?

Think of how simple it was to get on the VA GOP primary ( and others) and how many supposedly mainstream/serious Republican candidates couldn't figure that out.

The Wildcard here, I think, is the Americans Elect party, which has big money corporate/war machine backers and plans to run either a "centrist" or R/D combination tickets based on what little I've heard. Roemer has expressed interest in that. I think Huntsman might be the most likely of the current guys to give that a run. Or they might try to go with some supposed "moderate" asshole like Bloomberg.

I think most of the other Republicans will just endorse Romney ( or whoever the top establishment candidate is) when they drop out or do what Paul is doing.

[roc_rob]

Well you see, this was what I was thinking. Will they promote Obama instead or some third party candidate?

Both would look pretty weird to most of the viewers I believe.

I think they could easily play the grassroots and Tea Party angles with their 3rd party candidate of choice:


"Look at this America, genuine patriotic revolution happening all around us! No one would have ever thought this possible, but passionate supporters have come together to make this dream a reality. You are witnessing true democracy in action, the living dream of our founding fathers in motion! Now onward to Iran!"

[roc_rob]

if Paul were going to go 3rd party/Ind. he would need to leave the GOP fairly soon, maybe March at the latest.

I agree with that concern.

[thoughtomator]

If forced to choose, FNC will go for Obama over Paul as the former is a lot closer to the ideology of the FNC neo-cons - when you strip out the rhetoric, Obama is practically a policy clone of George Bush.

[Txrose4ever]

Trumpo has an even lower chance of getting anywhere 3rd party.

[JJ2]

If Paul gets the nomination, Hannity will be one of the first to jump on board the bandwagon.