bobbyw24
01-06-2012, 05:07 AM
http://images.rcp.realclearpolitics.com/115918_5_.jpg
Unlike Mitt Romney, I am not a betting man. But if I were, I might go to Intrade right now and bet a bundle that Ron Paul will win the New Hampshire primary. The bettors there give that an 10 percent chance of happening, which would make for a pretty good payday.
Ron Paul can win New Hampshire because he can win the Iowa caucuses. (Intraders give Paul's Iowa victory a 40 percent chance.) New Hampshirites have never felt it necessary to follow the Iowa caucus-goers, but the dynamics of the race make their state a likely second pickup.
If those two unexpected events do occur, then all hell will rain down upon the Paulistas. The GOP establishment will throw everything including the kitchen sink, the garage door opener, and two dozen pair of oversized baboon dentures at Paul to keep him from becoming the nominee. But I am getting ahead of myself.
Congressman Paul can win Iowa because the race is divided there but his supporters are not. He already came a crazy close second at the Iowa Straw Poll, a fact that Jon Stewart highlighted as television journalists strained mightily to ignore it.
Iowa was never going to be a strong state for Romney, so he decided not to vigorously contest it. Now Paul, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich are fighting over that bone.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/19/can_ron_paul_win_new_hampshire_112436.html
Unlike Mitt Romney, I am not a betting man. But if I were, I might go to Intrade right now and bet a bundle that Ron Paul will win the New Hampshire primary. The bettors there give that an 10 percent chance of happening, which would make for a pretty good payday.
Ron Paul can win New Hampshire because he can win the Iowa caucuses. (Intraders give Paul's Iowa victory a 40 percent chance.) New Hampshirites have never felt it necessary to follow the Iowa caucus-goers, but the dynamics of the race make their state a likely second pickup.
If those two unexpected events do occur, then all hell will rain down upon the Paulistas. The GOP establishment will throw everything including the kitchen sink, the garage door opener, and two dozen pair of oversized baboon dentures at Paul to keep him from becoming the nominee. But I am getting ahead of myself.
Congressman Paul can win Iowa because the race is divided there but his supporters are not. He already came a crazy close second at the Iowa Straw Poll, a fact that Jon Stewart highlighted as television journalists strained mightily to ignore it.
Iowa was never going to be a strong state for Romney, so he decided not to vigorously contest it. Now Paul, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Newt Gingrich are fighting over that bone.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/19/can_ron_paul_win_new_hampshire_112436.html