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View Full Version : NH poll crosstabs, Wash Times/JZ Analytics: Paul 24%, Mitt 38%




da32130
01-05-2012, 05:09 PM
http://jzanalytics.com/NH_GOP_Primary_Crosstabs.pdf

Paul 1st with:
Ind/Not Affiliate with party
Liberals
18-29
18-24
25-34
Cell Only
Religion - Other/None (not prot/not cath)
Church Attend - Never
Single
<25k
35-59k
Coos county
Merrimack county
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zerosdontcount
01-05-2012, 05:10 PM
Yay! Already up on RCP...

JackieDan
01-05-2012, 05:10 PM
This is good news!

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 05:12 PM
Unfortunately Santorum's over Huntsman, bad only because SC is next.

Romney 38%
Ron Paul 23.6%
Santorum 10.8%
Not sure 9.7%
Gingrich 9.0%
Huntsman 8.0%
Perry 0.5%
Bachmann 0.3%

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 05:13 PM
Look at the STRENGTH of Ron's vote! Over 90% either will definitely or are strongly likely to vote for him! Says even higher % are strong who are still with Newt, though,but then, there aren't nearly as many of them.

And Mitt Romney has more people supporting him who would definitely choose a third party candidate if he lost the nomination than Ron has - although the percentage is slightly lower.

Hilariously, Bachmann seems to have exactly two people one says they like the tea party, one says not, and she still gets a 68% on supporters liking tea party. I guess I just don't understand statistics for polls...

Also, Ron may not be strongest with the religious groups, but all put together they make up more of his support than not, and he has a lot more in raw numbers than a bunch of others.

jersdream
01-05-2012, 05:13 PM
The thing that worries me about this poll, looking at the cross tabs, they included as many 18 to 29 year olds (nearly did I should say) as 65+ and more 30-49 year olds than 50-64 year olds.

da32130
01-05-2012, 05:14 PM
Paul 1st with:
Ind/Not Affiliate with party
Liberals
18-29
18-24
25-34
Cell Only
Religion - Other/None (not prot/not cath)
Church Attend - Never
Single
<25k
35-59k
Coos county
Merrimack county
Shares views

BSU kid
01-05-2012, 05:14 PM
:)

Harald
01-05-2012, 05:17 PM
Interesting:
1) Ron Paul gets 50% of support from people who has no land lines
2) Ron Paul has a lot of soft support. 41.7% say that they might change their minds

wgadget
01-05-2012, 05:19 PM
The thing that worries me about this poll, looking at the cross tabs, they included as many 18 to 29 year olds (nearly did I should say) as 65+ and more 30-49 year olds than 50-64 year olds.

Well, at least NH is a primary state, where they only have to show up and press a button.

Agorism
01-05-2012, 05:19 PM
RCP posted a zogby poll?

da32130
01-05-2012, 05:22 PM
The thing that worries me about this poll, looking at the cross tabs, they included as many 18 to 29 year olds (nearly did I should say) as 65+ and more 30-49 year olds than 50-64 year olds.

exit polls in 2008:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHREP

would expect it to be more indies and younger this time, like Iowa.

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 05:24 PM
The thing that worries me about this poll, looking at the cross tabs, they included as many 18 to 29 year olds (nearly did I should say) as 65+ and more 30-49 year olds than 50-64 year olds.

Maybe it was screened on how likely to go. But I agree, we don't want an artificially high poll depressing whatever bump Ron should get coming out of this.

but we DO want him above 20% since I understand it matters to delegates at each 10% mark.

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 05:25 PM
RCP posted a zogby poll?

Oh, crap, is that what this is? It doesn't say Zogby. Those are opt in polls. This says JZ Analytics which name is vaguely familiar but I can't say how accurate they are.

angrydragon
01-05-2012, 05:27 PM
Wonder how much time Perry will get in the NH debate for polling 0-1% in the recent polls, more than Romney hmm?

da32130
01-05-2012, 05:28 PM
Oh, crap, is that what this is? It doesn't say Zogby. Those are opt in polls. This says JZ Analytics which name is vaguely familiar but I can't say how accurate they are.

they are former zogby people, but not zogby.

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 05:32 PM
Interesting:
1) Ron Paul gets 50% of support from people who has no land lines
2) Ron Paul has a lot of soft support. 41.7% say that they might change their minds

no, the question on that last number is
Strong, but I could change my
mind

jersdream
01-05-2012, 05:33 PM
I stand corrected, the cross tab %'s are right compared to the 2008 New Hampshire Primary.

Also this is a polled done by Zogby, but this is not an OPT-IN poll...this is a random sampling poll. Usually RCP does NOT include a zogby poll, but this is actually legit!!!!!

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 05:33 PM
they are former zogby people, but not zogby.

Zogby USED to be a serious pollster before he started those opt in sign up to be polled things. So long as these guys don't use that, it is a real poll. If they do, I don't understand why RCP would use them, though.

JTforRP
01-05-2012, 05:34 PM
LOL @ getting 50% from people with no landline telephone. Makes so much damn sense.

Agorism
01-05-2012, 05:34 PM
JZ= John Zogby

or

Jay-Z


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVA-xTBeHyM

rp2012win
01-05-2012, 05:51 PM
Bill kristol just pumped a santorum NH surge hard on fox news. Says that he will battle paul for 2nd. Could be another media push for a santorum surge.

Badger for Paul
01-05-2012, 06:26 PM
So, RP is popular with young, poor, apolitical athiests with cell phones. I hope NH has a lot of them.

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 06:27 PM
So, RP is popular with young, poor, apolitical athiests with cell phones. I hope NH has a lot of them.

Most of Ron's voters aren't any of those things. It is just that those small groups tend more to Ron than to, say, Santorum.

abruzz0
01-05-2012, 06:33 PM
If we get anywhere between 20-25% in NH, I'll be happy. If we finish a strong 2nd, and The Froth a distant 3rd, I think we're in good shape and the race will soon dwindle down to a 2-man rodeo.

sailingaway
01-05-2012, 06:33 PM
Note that these polls are all over the place, though, even who is in third etc varies dramatically. http://www.newhampshire.com/article/20120105/NEWS0602/701059999/0/politics06

IndianaPolitico
01-05-2012, 06:39 PM
Note that these polls are all over the place, though, even who is in third etc varies dramatically. http://www.newhampshire.com/article/20120105/NEWS0602/701059999/0/politics06
According to the RCP average it is a bit more steady. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

WD-NY
01-05-2012, 07:10 PM
Look at the STRENGTH of Ron's vote! Over 90% either will definitely or are strongly likely to vote for him! Says even higher % are strong who are still with Newt, though,but then, there aren't nearly as many of them.

And Mitt Romney has more people supporting him who would definitely choose a third party candidate if he lost the nomination than Ron has - although the percentage is slightly lower.

Hilariously, Bachmann seems to have exactly two people one says they like the tea party, one says not, and she still gets a 68% on supporters liking tea party. I guess I just don't understand statistics for polls...

Also, Ron may not be strongest with the religious groups, but all put together they make up more of his support than not, and he has a lot more in raw numbers than a bunch of others.

Word.

I'm kind of surprised by how low key the general mood/energy within the grassroots is right now (especially compared to the run up to Iowa) given the very real opportunity we have to out-perform in NH. I mean, looking at these cross tabs, we have a very real shot at coming in a DECISIVE/STRONG 2nd.

Think enough of folks are still doing phone-from-home or did Iowa slow us down? The campaign has been pretty quiet since Tuesday. Is everything a-ok on the ground in NH?

WD-NY
01-05-2012, 07:13 PM
Interesting:
1) Ron Paul gets 50% of support from people who has no land lines
2) Ron Paul has a lot of soft support. 41.7% say that they might change their minds

Not. Good.