sailingaway
01-04-2012, 04:48 PM
http://austin.culturemap.com/newsdetail/01-04-12-09-48-iowa-caucus-electability-and-ideology-why-mitt-romney-and-ron-paul-will-take-center-stage-in-new-hampshire/
in part:
New Hampshire will be a race between electability and ideology. Perry, Paul, Gingrich and Santorum are ideology candidates. Each has worked hard to distinguish themselves as the true anti-establishment conservative, paring down their particular brand of conservatism to a series of talking points. Rick Perry is the "crime and punishment" candidate: his execution record as governor makes him attractive to voters who favor aggressive, punitive foreign and domestic policy. Ron Paul is the “reform” candidate: he’s anti-war, anti-drug war, and anti-choice and his message resonates with some liberals and moderates. Santorum is the “family values” candidate: he’s anti-gay, believes in outlawing contraception, and has indicated he would annul gay marriages by legislative fiat.
After yesterday’s poor showing, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry are both zombie candidates, but they can still drain support from each other and the other longshot candidates. Each of them will receive a slice of the voters who purposely ignore the “horse race” aspect of the election and vote for the candidate that most stringently adheres to their personal beliefs.
Romney and Paul are the most electable candidates in New Hampshire — by a wide margin. Mitt Romney’s exit polls from Iowa indicate that those who voted for him did so because they believe he has a shot at unseating President Obama in November. Romney and Paul will carry the lion’s share of the voters, being the only candidates with coordinated, established political operations in the state.
After the New Hampshire primary the media’s attention will narrow to two possible candidates: Ron Paul or Mitt Romney. Rick Perry will go back to his governorship, Gingrich will go back to touring the world with his third wife and Santorum will be another cautionary tale about taking the results of the Iowa Caucus too seriously.
in part:
New Hampshire will be a race between electability and ideology. Perry, Paul, Gingrich and Santorum are ideology candidates. Each has worked hard to distinguish themselves as the true anti-establishment conservative, paring down their particular brand of conservatism to a series of talking points. Rick Perry is the "crime and punishment" candidate: his execution record as governor makes him attractive to voters who favor aggressive, punitive foreign and domestic policy. Ron Paul is the “reform” candidate: he’s anti-war, anti-drug war, and anti-choice and his message resonates with some liberals and moderates. Santorum is the “family values” candidate: he’s anti-gay, believes in outlawing contraception, and has indicated he would annul gay marriages by legislative fiat.
After yesterday’s poor showing, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry are both zombie candidates, but they can still drain support from each other and the other longshot candidates. Each of them will receive a slice of the voters who purposely ignore the “horse race” aspect of the election and vote for the candidate that most stringently adheres to their personal beliefs.
Romney and Paul are the most electable candidates in New Hampshire — by a wide margin. Mitt Romney’s exit polls from Iowa indicate that those who voted for him did so because they believe he has a shot at unseating President Obama in November. Romney and Paul will carry the lion’s share of the voters, being the only candidates with coordinated, established political operations in the state.
After the New Hampshire primary the media’s attention will narrow to two possible candidates: Ron Paul or Mitt Romney. Rick Perry will go back to his governorship, Gingrich will go back to touring the world with his third wife and Santorum will be another cautionary tale about taking the results of the Iowa Caucus too seriously.