Rocco
01-04-2012, 12:29 PM
3rd in Iowa is nothing that will kill us, but we now have 6 candidates left. In NH it right now looks like:
Romney
Paul
Huntsman
Gingrich
Santorum
Perry
If Huntsman comes in 3rd or 4th I think we can expect him to drop out, but everyone else probably stays in. Perhaps if Newt comes in 4th or even 5th here he could slip as well, but it'll all depend on Frothy's surge. We NEED a strong 2nd here at the very least, and I suspect one of Newt or Huntsman (probably huntsman) drops out. 5 candidates left.
South Carolina:
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Perry
Santorum
I think here, if we do what we must in NH, we require a strong 3rd but 2nd would be even better. After this state Perry and Santorum will drop out, and we will have 3 left.
Florida:
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
I think here we get our first big breakthrough, a good showing in Florida, and beating Newt forces him to drop out. I believe this will happen based on the weakness of virtually all candidates. Look, the reason Iowa doesnt kill us is because we have a longterm strategy surrounding getting everyone but Romney out. We already got Bachmann out, Perry and Santorum will almost certainly be gone after SC unless there's a "surge", Huntsman will be gone if he doesnt overperform in NH, point is this could be down to 2 guys after 4 states. It'll be a tough road, but our longterm strategy was to win caucuses and get delegates. We likely got the most delegates last night, so really we're right on track! Keep working hard!
Romney
Paul
Huntsman
Gingrich
Santorum
Perry
If Huntsman comes in 3rd or 4th I think we can expect him to drop out, but everyone else probably stays in. Perhaps if Newt comes in 4th or even 5th here he could slip as well, but it'll all depend on Frothy's surge. We NEED a strong 2nd here at the very least, and I suspect one of Newt or Huntsman (probably huntsman) drops out. 5 candidates left.
South Carolina:
Romney
Gingrich
Paul
Perry
Santorum
I think here, if we do what we must in NH, we require a strong 3rd but 2nd would be even better. After this state Perry and Santorum will drop out, and we will have 3 left.
Florida:
Romney
Paul
Gingrich
I think here we get our first big breakthrough, a good showing in Florida, and beating Newt forces him to drop out. I believe this will happen based on the weakness of virtually all candidates. Look, the reason Iowa doesnt kill us is because we have a longterm strategy surrounding getting everyone but Romney out. We already got Bachmann out, Perry and Santorum will almost certainly be gone after SC unless there's a "surge", Huntsman will be gone if he doesnt overperform in NH, point is this could be down to 2 guys after 4 states. It'll be a tough road, but our longterm strategy was to win caucuses and get delegates. We likely got the most delegates last night, so really we're right on track! Keep working hard!