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View Full Version : Iowa Proves Ron Paul is viewed as a Moderate, Splitting vote with Romney.




Cyberbrain
01-04-2012, 12:51 AM
Like it or not Paul is viewed as a moderate candidate. If you compare the final Iowa map with the republican primary in 2008 and the presidential elections in 2008 and 2004, the west is mostly conservative and the east is mostly moderate/liberal. Tonight we split the vote with Romney in all the moderate/liberal areas while Santorum took the conservative country.

Also if you look at the cross tabs in the last PPP Iowa poll, out of all the major candidates, Romney supporters chose Dr. Paul as their 2nd choice and viewed him more favorably than supporters of any other major candidate.


I guess this means there's two scenarios that could happen and that we need to look for in a Paul vs Romney race:
A) The anti-Romney vote could really be the anti-moderate vote, and end up causing republicans to coalesce around a "true conservative" candidate making it a three-way race where Romney might actually cause us to lose the nomination if we don't grab his supporters.
B) We would have to prove ourselves as the "true conservative" candidate to have the anti-moderate crowd coalesce around us.


Just my first impressions of tonight before I head off to bed and what we might face as we move forward. Links:

2012 Iowa Republican Caucus Map
http://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/results

2008 Iowa Republican Caucus Map
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Republican_caucuses,_2008

2008 Iowa Presidential Election Map
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa,_2008

2004 Iowa Presidential Election Map
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa,_2004

sailingaway
01-04-2012, 12:54 AM
It depends on what you are looking at. In entrance polls, Ron led with people saying the most important thing was to pick a true conservative. Some mean social when theyu say that, some mean fiscal, and some mean war.

In those counties they may more of them have meant social, and while Ron is a social conservative, he doesn't think the federal government should regulate marriage. That is why NOM had all those hit ads against him. THAT kind of social conservative may be more prevelent than not in those counties. That is not the same kind of conservative you will see as much of in NH or South Dakota.

dbill27
01-04-2012, 12:59 AM
I saw some lady interviewed before the caucus on either cnn or cspan, said she had just recently made up her mind, said that it all came down to her being worried about the economy and that's why she was voting for santorum, thats when i knew it was going to be unreal. I mean seriously, santorum hasn't even ever mentioned the economy or creating jobs. At least romeny and everyone else at least mention it and act like they understand the economy. Santorum, jesus