What is the absolute upper limit we could raise on Dec 16th?

[shepburn]

Please consider exponential growth factors, huge new media exposure, excitement generated from November 5th, campaign sponsered T.V. ads are now on air, Campaign will dramatically increase its T.V. marketing via Nov 5th cash, etc.

[ladyliberty]

um - even more than 4.3 million - but I am only guessing!

I think we are going to top that on Sunday because we will have many more people who know about ron PAul and want to donate!

[kylejack]

10M would be my guess, but then again, our media blitz was enormous...so I really don't know.

[Johnnybags]

million. If we beat it great, if not oh well, his was on his endorsement day. 5.7 million if broken will send shockwaves. Going for 10 million end being short is tough. Lets set the bar low.

[shepburn]

I agree that $10 to $15M is a very realistic possiblity and probably a very good goal to have.

However, I do believe that is at least POSSIBLE to beat this number soundly; IF everything goes perfectly.

[CelestialRender]

We could do way better than 10 million even, but I think that's a definitely reasonable goal.

I think almost everyone is short-changing Dec 16th...what with the increased organization we have, not to mention credibility, media exposure, TV ad time, etc....this is gonna be huge.

[Sematary]

million. If we beat it great, if not oh well, his was on his endorsement day. 5.7 million if broken will send shockwaves. Going for 10 million end being short is tough. Lets set the bar low.

Set the bar low? Are you high? :D

[Madison]

$20 million.

[Bacon]

I think we'll easily clear 10 mil. I only thought we'd raise 2 mil on the 5th and we more than doubled that..

[Midnight77]

We need to be realistic here. I am saying between $6 and $7 Million. There is no way we are going to get something like $20 Million, I'm sorry.

[Jwaksman]

First of all.... $60 Million is nuts. Not even close. Do people remember how big of a deal it was that we broke FOUR million? If we could manage to just double that it would be one of the biggest political stories of the entire election, and would smash every record.



Besides, as other people have said - you want to set the bar low. Set good goals, but don't expect anything huge. That way if we do get something like $7 or $8 Million, people will be incredibly excited and the political establishment will be floored. If you set the bar too high then not hitting it will be something of a disappointment, even if we do better than last time.



The Republican fundraising leader will probably be around $15-$18 Million this quarter. If we can get to $20 Million we'll be in absolutely great shape. Include the fact that Dr. Paul doesn't pay three dozen advisers to tell him what to think and he'll be able to spend as much money on advertisements as even Hillary & Obama.

[James R]

I think our current goal (and I say its our current goal because that is what TeaParty07.com says), should be $10 million. As it happens that is what the website says our goal is. Any more than $12 million would outside of my imagination.

[Bacon]

What would the MSM do if Ron Paul received the most money in Q4?

[Jobarra]

I voted 15M - 25M, however the goal should be set somewhere around 10M. I do like the 1M for every original colony idea.

I'm guessing we pull in 17.2M. 4 times what the Nov. 5th pulled in. Nov. 5th pull was 4 times what the 1M pull was. Would be fun to see 68.8M pulled in on Jan 1st :D

[CelestialRender]

Even though I'm one of the psychopaths who voted over $60 million, I think $10 million should be the goal.

The question says "if the stars aligned correctly"...we'd need 50,000 (not many more than the 37000 of thisnov5.com) people to donate $2,000 (a hell of a lot less than their income taxes), and we'd hit $100,000,000.

So yeah, it's possible. However, it is a bit unlikely. But if we were to raise that ridiculous an amount of money, Ron Paul could buy infomercial slots like Ross Perot once did.

LONG story short: We could do more...but let's set it at $10 mill, and when we've already got more pledges than that a week out, let's bump it up.

[Jwaksman]

The goal really should be Hillary's $6.2 Million. If we break that record it will do two things:


1) Paul will have the undisputed best fundraising day in the history of American politics.

2) Paul will assure himself of raising as much money in the fourth quarter as any of his Republican rivals.



If we can break $6.2 Million in one day, we should all be ecstatic. Let's leave that as the goal. If we break it with time to spare, everyone will be so excited that they'll donate even more (if they haven't already tapped out). After that, everything will be gravy.

[thoughtbombing]

The goal really should be Hillary's $6.2 Million. If we break that record it will do two things:

Ron Paul actually BEAT Obama, BEAT Clinton, BEAT Romney... when they FILED their FEC reports, those numbers turned out to NOT be true. I think 5 Million should be the STATED goal. I don't know that we'll get that. A lot of people spent every penny they had on this last one.

[Jwaksman]

Ron Paul actually BEAT Obama, BEAT Clinton, BEAT Romney... when they FILED their FEC reports, those numbers turned out to NOT be true. I think 5 Million should be the STATED goal. I don't know that we'll get that. A lot of people spent every penny they had on this last one.




Well the FEC reports said that Hillary raised something like $9 million on the last day of a quarter... it seems like the accepted REAL number is $6.2 Million? At the very least, we know that Kerry had $5.7 Million in a day.


Either way, we know that the media will believe that Clinton had that $6.2 Million day, so we need to get atleast around $6.5 Million if the media is going to recognize it as the biggest fundraising day ever.

[thoughtbombing]

Well the FEC reports said that Hillary raised something like $9 million on the last day of a quarter... it seems like the accepted REAL number is $6.2 Million? At the very least, we know that Kerry had $5.7 Million in a day.


Either way, we know that the media will believe that Clinton had that $6.2 Million day, so we need to get atleast around $6.5 Million if the media is going to recognize it as the biggest fundraising day ever.

I noticed on CNN, they were questioning the numbers for the first day or so... saying IF these are true, this MAY be huge...

IF, MAY...

lol WHEN these are true this WILL.

[Jwaksman]

I noticed on CNN, they were questioning the numbers for the first day or so... saying IF these are true, this MAY be huge...

IF, MAY...

lol WHEN these are true this WILL.




I know, it's why we have to be so far ahead of the old record that it can't be questioned. If you give people a reason to belittle it, they will. I saw a lot of weblogs (like littlegreenfootballs) even suggesting that they were pledges, not donations.

[shepburn]

Let's not set the goal too low!!! The downside is that people (us) will thing this movement is business as usual. While hitting $10M would be great, will it be a shocker? Yes, but will we still be behind Giuliani in 4thQ donations? Yes.

We need to be the GOP donation leader, not just the "cash on hand" leader.

The goal should be $20M. To do this, we need about 150,000 donors or 4X what we had on Nov 5th. (Please remember that our advertising and increased viablity will help exponentially in this effort). This will give us about $30M for the 4th Q. If we could pull of this coup, ... we could suddenly become among the favorites to win the nomination.

[Jwaksman]

Let's not set the goal too low!!! The downside is that people (us) will thing this movement is business as usual. While hitting $10M would be great, will it be a shocker? Yes, but will we still be behind Giuliani in 4thQ donations? Yes.

We need to be the GOP donation leader, not just the "cash on hand" leader.

The goal should be $20M. To do this, we need about 150,000 donors or 4X what we had on Nov 5th. (Please remember that our advertising and increased viablity will help exponentially in this effort). This will give us about $30M for the 4th Q. If we could pull of this coup, ... we could suddenly become among the favorites to win the nomination.



Yeah, but we should be at $10 Mil and change by December 15th. If we raise $6+ Million in a day that puts us around $17 Mil. A final push at the end of the month would put us around $20 Mil. I doubt Giuliani raises over $20 Million in the quarter.


The biggest 4th quarter of all-time is Howard Dean's $15.95 Million. Obviously that record will be broken this year, but Republicans won't beat it by much.


Hillary and Obama will be in the $30 Mil range, but we don't really have to worry about them. We're only competing against the Republicans right now. Besides, when you account for the stinginess of the campaigns, $20 Million for Paul is worth more than $30 Million for Clinton anyway.

[shepburn]

Yeah, but we should be at $10 Mil and change by December 15th. If we raise $6+ Million in a day that puts us around $17 Mil. A final push at the end of the month would put us around $20 Mil. I doubt Giuliani raises over $20 Million in the quarter.


The biggest 4th quarter of all-time is Howard Dean's $15.95 Million. Obviously that record will be broken this year, but Republicans won't beat it by much.


Hillary and Obama will be in the $30 Mil range, but we don't really have to worry about them. We're only competing against the Republicans right now. Besides, when you account for the stinginess of the campaigns, $20 Million for Paul is worth more than $30 Million for Clinton anyway.

good analysis. but the part I want to emphsize is that WE need to be in the right frame of mind. $10M is low enough (in my opinion) to breed complacancy among us core supporters. Put a different way, $10M will be reached with everyone doing nothing new (i.e. stay on autopilot). If we knew that we had to make $15M in one day, I'm guessing that we will begin to think in more rEVOLutionary terms.

[cjhowe]

I say 12 million top end if they rewrite the credit card processor to be multi-threaded. If they don't, I think the 16th will be 6 million and the 17th will be 4. We have work to do between now and then though.

[NewEnd]

I am guessing $10 - $12 million.

Could you imagine?

[SonicInfinity]

You guys that keep saying "set the bar low" must be Democrats because that is NOT how you do things.

You set the bar HIGH and keep your expectations AVERAGE, that way if you don't meet your goal but you get above average, you are satisfied. I say we set the bar to $15-20M and put our average expectations from $7-10M, that way if we get something like $12M, we will be in excellent shape and won't be downed that our goal was not met.

[kylejack]

I think the 11th is going to be a good indicator for the Tea Party. If we pull more than a million on Veteran's Day, it will indicate that we're still extremely healthy, and predict >$10 million for the Tea Party.

One negative factor: All the media, campaigns, Ron Paul supporters, and supporters of other campaigns watching the site on December 16th might really lag the site. Even on 11/5, we have reports of money never going through.

[monotony]

We will raise $25 million easily in this quarter, and possibly $20 million on the 16th alone.

Those who are expecting low numbers need to consider the considerable rise in media coverage. Before Nov 5th, he would get an interview here and there, but was treated like he was fringe and had no chance. Nov 5th has now shattered that perception and the MSM is starting to cover this revolution as a real story. There will be many media outlets covering the Philly Rally tomorrow and we are going to build even more momentum from the Nov 11th Veteran's Day money bomb. I've already seen the MSM reporting on Dec 16th, and they will continue to spread the word to an audience many times larger than Nov 5th was able to.

Volunteers are joining at a clip of 1000 per day, which means we are picking up probably 10x that in voters and supporters. The growth of his support is exponential at this point and that is all from the attention his grassroots has generated. He is going to get so much exposure from now on and a large percentage of people will hear his message and be infected with Ron Paul mania like the rest of us. By the time Dec 15th and 16th roll around there will be so much excitement in the air all across America. No one will want to miss out on this historic day...the day the American people rose up and took back their country...and all of his supporters know it is up to us to get him in the oval office.

I really hope that in the weeks leading up to the Tea Party that Dr. Paul talks about the significance of the government taxation and has the opportunity to educate the public on how the income tax could be abolished if the American people got behind it. Most people I tell that to think the roads and schools are going to fall apart because of lack of information. This is a perfect opportunity for him to help them to understand.

Don't underestimate our numbers or the exponential nature of our growth! We are strong and alive and we are only going to get stronger!!!! And we've got the truth on our side which sells itself!!!

[shepburn]

We will raise $25 million easily in this quarter, and possibly $20 million on the 16th alone.

Those who are expecting low numbers need to consider the considerable rise in media coverage. Before Nov 5th, he would get an interview here and there, but was treated like he was fringe and had no chance. Nov 5th has now shattered that perception and the MSM is starting to cover this revolution as a real story. There will be many media outlets covering the Philly Rally tomorrow and we are going to build even more momentum from the Nov 11th Veteran's Day money bomb. I've already seen the MSM reporting on Dec 16th, and they will continue to spread the word to an audience many times larger than Nov 5th was able to.

Volunteers are joining at a clip of 1000 per day, which means we are picking up probably 10x that in voters and supporters. The growth of his support is exponential at this point and that is all from the attention his grassroots has generated. He is going to get so much exposure from now on and a large percentage of people will hear his message and be infected with Ron Paul mania like the rest of us. By the time Dec 15th and 16th roll around there will be so much excitement in the air all across America. No one will want to miss out on this historic day...the day the American people rose up and took back their country...and all of his supporters know it is up to us to get him in the oval office.

I really hope that in the weeks leading up to the Tea Party that Dr. Paul talks about the significance of the government taxation and has the opportunity to educate the public on how the income tax could be abolished if the American people got behind it. Most people I tell that to think the roads and schools are going to fall apart because of lack of information. This is a perfect opportunity for him to help them to understand.

Don't underestimate our numbers or the exponential nature of our growth! We are strong and alive and we are only going to get stronger!!!! And we've got the truth on our side which sells itself!!!


you are an exceptional writer! keep up these inspriational words of encouragement for all of us to ponder. We need people like to help frame our minds into visualizing actual victory!

[Midnight77]

You guys that keep saying "set the bar low" must be Democrats because that is NOT how you do things.

You set the bar HIGH and keep your expectations AVERAGE, that way if you don't meet your goal but you get above average, you are satisfied. I say we set the bar to $15-20M and put our average expectations from $7-10M, that way if we get something like $12M, we will be in excellent shape and won't be downed that our goal was not met.

No because you need to understand the repercussions. Now that we are on the Media's raydar and that they know about December 16th, they will be watching us very carefully.

If we fail to meet expectations this day, that is how it will be viewed in the Media. We were lucky that didn't happen on the 5th.

I want to beat Hillary's alleged $6.2 Million. Even though this amount from Mrs. Clinton is questioned ... we know that this is what the Media will accept as true.

I am predicting we can hit $7 Million.

[wisconsinite]

Keep in mind the success of the 5th was due to only about .01% of the general population contributing. Even if you increased it to only a twentieth of a percent of all Americans chipping in, the increase would be phenomonal.

[shepburn]

No because you need to understand the repercussions. Now that we are on the Media's raydar and that they know about December 16th, they will be watching us very carefully.

If we fail to meet expectations this day, that is how it will be viewed in the Media. We were lucky that didn't happen on the 5th.

I want to beat Hillary's alleged $6.2 Million. Even though this amount from Mrs. Clinton is questioned ... we know that this is what the Media will accept as true.

I am predicting we can hit $7 Million.

not true ... breaking an all-time fundraising record is more news worthy than if we meet our internally set goal. No one cares about the number we use to motivate ourselves. I mean how the hell can we predict this? Setting the bar low is good for some things (like earnings outlooks for stocks) but not for this particular type of fundrasing!

[Menthol Patch]

I see no reason we can't raise at least ten million. The success of the 5th will motivate others to donate even more at the Tea Party!

[Conza88]

Lol, I went the extreme optimist approach.
Shieff sent out his email, to 60,000 people on his mailing list about a week ago?
Telling them all about Ron Paul and too donate the MAX, he's made them all heaps of money etc... this will save America.

So say... only 1/3 of them do (hoping here)
20,000 x $2300
= $46,000,000 :D
And then the rest from normal supporters.
So looking at 50 mil give or take. :p

If i had to bet my balls on something;
$13M

[shepburn]

I still think that is is possible (but unliklely), to get to $25M.

[asdf]

We'll raise alot more than we did on the 5th. I didnt donate on the 5th because of the Guy Falkes linkage, but will be donating on teaparty07. 4.2 mil is just a taste of whats possible.

I say 12 million to even it off at $20 million for the QTR with 45 days to go. :eek:

[european]

i stick with my " deffo 10mio+ but not much more then that"-prediction.
10M is such a huge accomplishment already, when i read these replies here, i wonder if you guys/girls understand the amount of money that we are talking about. it is a huge amount of money. and i don't believe that 20k people will put in 2300 each, just because $2,300 is a huge amount for many people. and there is nothing wrong with that.

$10M is a HUGE accomplishment already. That amount will cause a shockwave already throughout the MSM and political arena. And if we get that $10M, the step-up for the next record is set aswell (aslong as the day isnt jan 1st because everyone is having a hangover that day and has spend all his money on the hollidays already, better put the next one after monthly payday).

[fourameuphoria]

We *need* to hit $10 Million. It has to be absolute priority, and we can't dilute it with other donations.

[Wayne Hammond]

We *need* to hit $10 Million. It has to be absolute priority, and we can't dilute it with other donations.

I wouldn't want to discourage anyone from donating any money to the campaign on any particular day (other than buying signs, buttons, stickers, slim jims, etc), but...

As for me, I'm saving up as much as I can between now and Dec. 16, holding off on any smaller donations until then, and then dropping my own personal one-day money bomb for TeaParty07 on the 16th.

The official campaign, (with over $8 million in the coffers thus far this quarter) can get by okay with the daily cash that's trickling in now, at least until the 16th... but one thing we cannot do, is fail to raise $10 million on Dec. 16th.

We must pull out all the stops on that day, or this campaign is sunk.

.

[ADGettis]

I believe the OP was asking for the upper limit we could raise, not reasonable expectations…

With 303,382,285 (http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html) people in the U.S., and a $2,300 donation limit, minus the $16.5 million raised so far, the upper limit we could raise is $697,762,755,500.

I've never been one to limit myself to "reasonable" expectations, so I say we go for it!!!

[TechnoGuyRob]

I believe the OP was asking for the upper limit we could raise, not reasonable expectations…

With 303,382,285 (http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html) people in the U.S., and a $2,300 donation limit, minus the $16.5 million raised so far, the upper limit we could raise is $697,762,755,500.

I've never been one to limit myself to "reasonable" expectations, so I say we go for it!!!

You are wrong. That's impossible.


Some of those people aren't 16 yet.

[LinkClan]

We must get something like 20million or better! Work Hard Folks! They are doing things like SIEZING ASSETS of our supporters. e.g. www.libertydollar.org. We must be Way Beyond Mad! Ron Paul Liberty Dollars, the 20 dollar silver is selling for over $250 on ebay right now! If you have any of these, it would be a good time to liquidate for additional donations. Spread the word, make it happen, Set No Limits, It's a REVOLUTION!

[LinkClan]

We must get something like 20million or better! Work Hard Folks! They are doing things like SIEZING ASSETS of our supporters. e.g. www.libertydollar.org. We must be Way Beyond Mad! Ron Paul Liberty Dollars, the 20 dollar silver is selling for over $250 on ebay right now! If you have any of these, it would be a good time to liquidate for additional donations. Spread the word, make it happen, Set No Limits, It's a REVOLUTION!

[Man from La Mancha]

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9435/blackwsmallyh7.gif (teaparty07.com)..http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/8947/brighton7gs5.gif (teaparty07.com)..copy,paste,linked to teaparty07.com , either one, only 1 million at $100

[Mark Mosconi]

"Aim at the sun, and you may not reach it; but your arrow will fly far higher than if aimed at an object on a level with yourself."
-Joel Hawes

The STATED GOAL should be $10 million, as it already is, however, should this prevent or discourage us from promoting this and pushing it as if the goal was $25 million or more? Personally, I think doubling November 5th with 8 or 9 million would be an achievable, and reasonable goal, but to AIM for that goal and eliminate the POSSIBILITY of achieving more is to limit ourselves and to defeat another possible outcome. So STATE that the goal is $10 million, but let's promote this as if the goal was $100 million. None of us knows how much the final will be, but let's not limit our actions due to differences in numerical expectations.

[ADGettis]

Some of those people aren't 16 yet.

My post was, of course, tongue-in-cheek, but do you really have to be 16 to donate? I thought there was some concern about kids donating to Hillary, but that it wasn't actually illegal.

[Man from La Mancha]

My post was, of course, tongue-in-cheek, but do you really have to be 16 to donate? I thought there was some concern about kids donating to Hillary, but that it wasn't actually illegal.

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/img/supporter/Alistair.jpg
Alistair is a huge supporter of Ron Paul. He recently had the chance to meet Dr. Paul in person and personally donated his allowance money to the campaign. He also participates in local meetup events with his Mom where he hands out fliers and talks with other supporters. Alistair's generation is a big reason why America needs Ron Paul to lead the country. America needs someone who will defend the constitution and ensure that Freedom and the American ideal are not lost for future generations. http://www.ronpaul2008.com/supporter-spotlight/


.

[280Z28]

I would be ecstatic but not surprised if we topped 25M :D

[Knightskye]

$20 million. I think it's a reasonable figure. I think it's reachable. Let's go for it. Imagine how many people we'll reach with the USA Today ad. If a tenth of them sign up to donate for the Tea Party, we'll be set.

[LBT]

Unless something special happens between now and Dec 16th, such as several major network promotions of the event, it seems we are on track for about 30 to 40,000 subscribers to teaparty07.com .

We don't know a lot about how this works, but Nov 5th gives us the best guestimates.

Based on Nov 5th's 18,000 subscribers, I guess we will be looking at 8 to 9 million on Dec 16.

We need some viral. big exposure push to go much beyond 10million I think. I'm hoping that happens but there are no guarantees.

10 mill on Dec 16th should put RP on 20+ mill for the quater. I'd guess the biggest republican fundraiser and maybe bigger than Hillary and Barack. That would be an incredible achievement.

Let's shoot for the moon, but don't get disheartened if the amount comes in below 6m. That would still be an historical quater.

[Dan D.]

If the stars align, which is to say, we get 90,000 pledges (number based on the rate of subscribers for the first few days of the teaparty07.com website), and we get the same 2.3x multiplier and $103 average donation, we'll get $21.321 million.

IF the average donation is higher, that will drive the numbers much higher of course. I don't think it's inconceivable that the average donation is $125, and then we get just over $25 million. Need a LOT of $2300 donors to get the average that high though.

[Paulitician]

I'm optimistic to think that we could possible break 10 million. We have the people, and I'm sure thousands of new donors will participate. However, I have a feeling, for no reason whatsoever, we'll make only 6 million or so.

[kotetu]

"Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you'll still land among the stars." <- saw it at hallmark. :D

I say postulate $50 million and be happy with what we get. I believe doubling Nov. 5's $4.3 million is the least of what we will raise. I am going to try to max out.

[AlexK]

The rate of sign-ups is already rapidly declining. Hope for the best, but don't expect anything too crazy.

[jake]

What would the MSM do if Ron Paul received the most money in Q4?

break into a cold sweat, as reality of the revolution begins to set it!

[Matthew Zak]

Who's voting for over 60 million? lol

Seriously, with that kind of funding Ron Paul could afford to have an ad engraved on the moon.

[CelestialRender]

"Who's voting for over 60 million? lol

Seriously, with that kind of funding Ron Paul could afford to have an ad engraved on the moon."

I voted for it, because the question said the absolute maximum possible if the perfect storm developed. It didn't ask a reasonable expectation. My expectation is $10-20 million.