Do we want high or low overall turnout tonight

[nyrgoal99]

120K in 2008, do we want higher or lower than that given our support?

[pauliticalfan]

High turnout among Independents and young voters.

[jmdrake]

We want high turnout for us and low turnout for everybody else. ;)

[bluesc]

High turnout among Independents and young voters.

That's what we're relying on. I have faith.

[specsaregood]

Record high turnout with RP win. They can't dismiss that.

[Rincewind]

Hard to say.

We certainly have enough allegedly committed bodies that a high turnout isn't a problem, assuming the right people show up.

OTOH, a low turnout could also be good if it means that a bunch of non-Paul softs/undecideds stayed home.

Point is, we're doing well enough that we don't have to hope to game the system to get a win, but in the end the point is just to get our folks out at a higher clip than everyone else.

[sailingaway]

Over all turn out will likely be high, that is why Ron didn't win at Ames, he had more than Romney had had the time before, but Randy Travis got more yet.

[Agorism]

Don't we want low turnout with R's and high turnout with I'd and D's...

It's the ratio that matters rather than the actual number.

[braane]

We want high turnout for us and low turnout for everybody else. ;)
this^ Only Ron's turnout really matters, as long as it's high we have a good chance to win this thing.

[bbartlog]

I'll be contrarian and say low turnout... we know that Ron Paul is going to have at least 25-30K votes, and if the turnout is huge it it just as likely to be a horde of evangelicals coming out to vote for Santorum as it is a horde of young people coming out to vote for Paul. With an 80K turnout we break 30%. With 130K voters who the hell knows?

[nobody's_hero]

I agree we want more people to show up, just not run-of-the-mill neocons. I think that's exactly what we'll see.

If Ron Paul wins, it will be because enough independents and democrats broke rank and hedged their bets by supporting the only peace and pro-liberty candidate on the republican side.

[Paul or not at all]

We Want all Ron Paul supporters to get their ass out and vote!

[PastaRocket848]

the biggest thing is dems and independents. if we see higher-than-average numbers of dems and independents, this is our moment. frankly, i think it is regardless.

[PastaRocket848]

I'll be contrarian and say low turnout... we know that Ron Paul is going to have at least 25-30K votes, and if the turnout is huge it it just as likely to be a horde of evangelicals coming out to vote for Santorum as it is a horde of young people coming out to vote for Paul. With an 80K turnout we break 30%. With 130K voters who the hell knows?

he'll have more than that. he has 20,000 confirmed a month ago before his poll numbers skyrocketed, and that's just the ones we got listed.

[opinionatedfool]

We want high turnout for us and low turnout for everybody else. ;)

Lol!

[Rincewind]

I'll be contrarian and say low turnout... we know that Ron Paul is going to have at least 25-30K votes, and if the turnout is huge it it just as likely to be a horde of evangelicals coming out to vote for Santorum as it is a horde of young people coming out to vote for Paul. With an 80K turnout we break 30%. With 130K voters who the hell knows?

OTOH a somewhat larger turnout on account of the young demographic exceeding the pollsters' expectations could hand us a larger margin of victory.

[bbartlog]

he'll have more than that. he has 20,000 confirmed a month ago before his poll numbers skyrocketed, and that's just the ones we got listed.

I know that the confirmed list has over 30K names on it now; however even with that and followup phone calls you still get more like 70% compliance than 100%. So I'm not inclined to count the phone from home GOTV as guaranteeing more than 22K votes (=32K * 0.7). The rest of the 25-30K I suggested would be others not identified by the campaign.
Of course I'm being pessimistic - maybe the phone list had 40K voters on it and maybe there will be an additional 10K surge of crossover indies/democrats, at which point we'd be pushing 40K votes, which would guarantee a Ronslide. Here's hoping!

[Agorism]

I was listening to Fox (so 50-50 chance it was false) yesterday and they were saying at least 20% had to be I'd and D's for Paul to have a chance.

I wonder what PPP would think.

[nyrgoal99]

good

[Liberty74]

They are expecting up to 120K turnout according to a Drudge article.

I support the high turnout - new voters, young voters, crossover voters, etc.

[UtahApocalypse]

Record high turnout with RP win. They can't dismiss that.

^^ this

[PastaRocket848]

I know that the confirmed list has over 30K names on it now; however even with that and followup phone calls you still get more like 70% compliance than 100%. So I'm not inclined to count the phone from home GOTV as guaranteeing more than 22K votes (=32K * 0.7). The rest of the 25-30K I suggested would be others not identified by the campaign.
Of course I'm being pessimistic - maybe the phone list had 40K voters on it and maybe there will be an additional 10K surge of crossover indies/democrats, at which point we'd be pushing 40K votes, which would guarantee a Ronslide. Here's hoping!

good call. i always tend to think every ron paul supporter is like us, when in reality, there probably is some "soft support" to account for.

[Danemicus]

I'd say a low turnout - because that could only really reflect badly on Romney/Santorum voters. Ron's going to get a high turnout of voters no matter what, so if the total is low, that would only really point towards a clear win. ;)

[John F Kennedy III]

I'm hoping for 46 feet of snow in Iowa tonight.

[nyrgoal99]

I'm hoping for 46 feet of snow in Iowa tonight.

wishful thinking. Maybe just cold

[itsnobody]

We want high turnout for us and low turnout for everybody else. ;)

Exactly!

It doesn't matter if the people are Republicans, Independents, or Democrats...what matters is if they support Ron Paul or not

[InTradePro]

Higher then 4 years ago.

[Indiana4Paul]

The most important things:
* turnout amongst 18-29 YOs and
* % of first-time caucus-goers

[ord33]

Does anybody know how the delegates are handled in Iowa?

For example, is it winner take all, proportional, I have seen some where if you get over a certain percentage (like 25% then xxx happens), etc.

Thanks!

[Ninja Homer]

Does anybody know how the delegates are handled in Iowa?

For example, is it winner take all, proportional, I have seen some where if you get over a certain percentage (like 25% then xxx happens), etc.

Thanks!

Completely unbound. The vote tonight is essentially just a straw poll, although it obviously has a lot of weight to it because of all the attention on it.

[rodo1776]

Anyone at a caucus now with reports on how long the lines are for new registrations?

High turnout should be very helpful if our message is getting across with indys and dems.

[Jingles]

I really don't know. A Paul win is all I want.

That being said I feel like the campaign knows something we don't. The way Ron was brushing off and laughing at "You're slipping in the polls" stuff. We'll find out tonight. It shall be interesting. So nervous. So excited.

[ord33]

Completely unbound. The vote tonight is essentially just a straw poll, although it obviously has a lot of weight to it because of all the attention on it.

Thanks!

[nyrgoal99]

bump

[jason43]

Could cut either way.

Low turnout, you know our people will be there.

High turnout could mean a lot of younger and independent voters that could help us.

Its just about WHO shows up rather than a number game.

[damiengwa]

yeah, what's it like? What's it like?