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Havax
01-03-2012, 11:20 AM
Romney 56% on

I know it's people betting real money. Should I temper my expectations that we will come in a close second? Is it now conventional wisdom Romney is going to win tonight?

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

Darthbrooklyn
01-03-2012, 11:21 AM
hahaa... i wouldnt go by Intrade

PastaRocket848
01-03-2012, 11:21 AM
you're reading way too much. put down the internet... go watch some (non political) tv, and wait until the results come in. it's far too late to do anything about it anyway. you'll just worry yourself for no good reason. it is what it is, and it'll be what it'll be. we gave it our all.

brandon
01-03-2012, 11:22 AM
It's a coin flip pretty much. Maybe a slightly weighted coin, but you get the idea.

libertyfanatic
01-03-2012, 11:22 AM
Santorum having a 20% chance should automatically disqualify anything having to do with Intrade

sailingaway
01-03-2012, 11:22 AM
Intrade follows the information it doesn't create the outcome. The day of the Ames straw poll the results careened like crazy.

69360
01-03-2012, 11:22 AM
Mittens and frothy won't gotv enough to win a caucus. I'm confident.

PastaRocket848
01-03-2012, 11:22 AM
Santorum having a 20% chance should automatically disqualify anything having to do with Intrade

why? he's in a statistical tie for first in every recent poll, or atleast close to it. 20% is reasonable. it could happen. and it would suck.

Agorism
01-03-2012, 11:23 AM
Phone from home!

winston_blade
01-03-2012, 11:23 AM
Intrade doesn't mean anything. All the MSM is against RP and that is the only info the bettors are getting. They don't have people down on the ground before they place bets.

libertyfanatic
01-03-2012, 11:24 AM
why? he's in a statistical tie for first in every recent poll, or atleast close to it. 20% is reasonable. it could happen. and it would suck.He might be able to pull off a win if he can convince all the evangelicals to support him but I don't think that they're smart enough to do that.

rp08orbust
01-03-2012, 11:24 AM
Perhaps the Romney buying is being driven by a Romney internal poll. He did seem to exude quite a bit of confidence yesterday. But so did Ron Paul.

Xenophage
01-03-2012, 11:25 AM
Romney 56% on

I know it's people betting real money. Should I temper my expectations that we will come in a close second? Is it now conventional wisdom Romney is going to win tonight?

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932

Seeing as how it is a virtual tie between Romney and Paul, bet on Paul winning because the payout will be bigger.

Dr.3D
01-03-2012, 11:26 AM
He might be able to pull off a win if he can convince all the evangelicals to support him but I don't think that they're smart enough to do that.

Well, they would support him if they would read the words of Christ instead of something out of the Old Testament.

A. Havnes
01-03-2012, 11:27 AM
He might be able to pull off a win if he can convince all the evangelicals to support him but I don't think that they're smart enough to do that.

There are evangelicals in Iowa who support him. Santorum probably has one county under his thumb, but his surge is over.

libertyfanatic
01-03-2012, 11:29 AM
Well, they would support him if they would read the words of Christ instead of something out of the Old Testament.Santorum supporters should read some nice passages from Leviticus at the caucus :D

jclay2
01-03-2012, 11:29 AM
Intrade isn't proven to be entirely acurate the day of the caucus's or primaries. I remember with obama/clinton, a bet on intrade for the clinton to win the new hampshire primary the day before the primary paid off like a 100 to 1.

parocks
01-03-2012, 11:29 AM
why? he's in a statistical tie for first in every recent poll, or atleast close to it. 20% is reasonable. it could happen. and it would suck.

One prediction is that I think that "undecided" will underperform the polls.

30 Paul
23 Romney
20 Santorum
12 Gingrich
7 Bachmann
6 Perry
2 Huntsman
*******
= 100

I'm not sure how that sucks.

Dr.3D
01-03-2012, 11:31 AM
Santorum supporters should read some nice passages from Leviticus at the caucus :D

Yeah, I don't see any women staying outside the city limits till they can be checked to see if they are clean.

braane
01-03-2012, 11:34 AM
I think Santorum has a better chance to win than Romney. Honestly.

BritishOnlooker
01-03-2012, 11:40 AM
With regards to intrade - I've been following Paul's odds for some time. A couple of days ago (New years eve or the day before) his odds for the GOP normination crashed from ~6% to ~2%. What happened to cause Ron to crash by a factor of three on that day? Nothing. No polls, no new bad news, nothing. It seemed to me that somebody with a lot of money already betting must have had a stop-loss and sold heavily. The change was so rapid that the odds were at times more than 15% disjointed from betfair (the more liquid, mostly British equivalent). Intrade has a few small players who can really drive or hammer the odds on the back of no information, and so I wouldn't trust the odds very much.

Sure, Ron's odds aren't great today for winning Iowa (bit worse than one in three most of today), but the "true" odds are only part of the formula going into that number. If you really want to bet, the rule is simple - if you think these odds pay more than Ron's real chances then bet, if not don't (or sell).

JohnGalt23g
01-03-2012, 11:43 AM
Mittens and frothy won't gotv enough to win a caucus. I'm confident.

I'm pretty sure Frothmeister won't have good GOTV.

I suspect Romney's GOTV will match our own. I've seen the Romney machine in action, and they are quite good.

Al Pacino would tell you it comes down to who is willing to die for that inch; he will win the contest.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO4tIrjBDkk

Publicani
01-03-2012, 11:53 AM
With regards to intrade - I've been following Paul's odds for some time. A couple of days ago (New years eve or the day before) his odds for the GOP normination crashed from ~6% to ~2%. What happened to cause Ron to crash by a factor of three on that day? Nothing. No polls, no new bad news, nothing. It seemed to me that somebody with a lot of money already betting must have had a stop-loss and sold heavily. The change was so rapid that the odds were at times more than 15% disjointed from betfair (the more liquid, mostly British equivalent). Intrade has a few small players who can really drive or hammer the odds on the back of no information, and so I wouldn't trust the odds very much.

Sure, Ron's odds aren't great today for winning Iowa (bit worse than one in three most of today), but the "true" odds are only part of the formula going into that number. If you really want to bet, the rule is simple - if you think these odds pay more than Ron's real chances then bet, if not don't (or sell).

I used to worry about intrade. You can see one of the threads I started here on this topic. I've been thinking about this and came to the same conclusion as you. This market is very illiquid. You can move it with a few hundred dollars or less. Right now to move the market you can buy 10 shares for $2.38 for Ron Paul to go up.

Drudge gave a headline about Intrade. So, for probably $10 K, Mitt invested in this advertisement. Even if he had to spend $100,000 - it's peanuts compare to the effect.

Just ignore it.

Brett85
01-03-2012, 11:59 AM
I don't understand that either. The most Romney is up by in any of the recent RCP polls is 2%. What exactly are people basing their bets on? I have an account on Intrade and bought Ron's Iowa shares. I think that Ron should be the favorite to win Iowa, not Romney.

silk30
01-03-2012, 12:04 PM
phone from home :)

wowrevolution
01-03-2012, 12:04 PM
My prediction:
Mitt & Santorum support will decrease while all other candidate support increases.
Support will split and Ron Paul will win by a larger than predicted margin.

braane
01-03-2012, 12:07 PM
My prediction:
Mitt & Santorum support will decrease while all other candidate support increases.
Support will split and Ron Paul will win by a larger than predicted margin.

Santorum is going to pick up some of the anti-Romney support and some of the anti-Paul support. Romney is going to under-perform... both Ron and Santorum will over-perform. A win and a Romney 3rd would be an awesome scenario.

truetrue
01-03-2012, 12:07 PM
Internal polling.

Karsten
01-03-2012, 12:08 PM
56% is not equal to 100%.
We can win this thing!

Brett85
01-03-2012, 12:10 PM
Internal polling.

Internal polling doesn't mean much. I'll go with the 1300 voter PPP poll that had Ron up by 1 point overall and 3 points on Sunday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that Romney is going to win Iowa. Not a thing. I believe that Romney's campaign is simply buying a mass amount of shares and raising the price.

matt0611
01-03-2012, 12:15 PM
Internal polling doesn't mean much. I'll go with the 1300 voter PPP poll that had Ron up by 1 point overall and 3 points on Sunday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that Romney is going to win Iowa. Not a thing. I believe that Romney's campaign is simply buying a mass amount of shares and raising the price.

Don't forget that Romney under-performed last time. I mean really, are people really passionate about Romney? Think about it....

I still don't believe Santorum will get 1st or even 2nd either. It will be close between us and Romney, but I believe we will win in the end.

LopTarDaBoo
01-03-2012, 12:35 PM
I've tried to get on Intrade several times in the past to make some bets, but it's a royal pain to setup and you have to mail or fax important personal records overseas.

I'd love to buy some Paul shares but the privacy and theft risks are too high for me.

White Bear Lake
01-03-2012, 12:35 PM
Paul 29%
Santorum 23%
Romney 22%

I'm calling it.

Forty Twice
01-03-2012, 12:36 PM
I think the interesting Intrade market is this: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932 . Who will win 2012 Presidency. Obama is at 51.8%. Paul is at 2.5%. Hillary is at .7%.

A good trade would to buy equal amounts of these three. Paul supporters will not vote for any Republican besides Paul in the general. So if Paul does not win Republican nomination, the Republican nominee will lose. Almost certainly Obama wins general unless RP is Republican nominee. You nearly double your money with this trade at
nearly no risk of losing money. Problem is, it seems you need a foreign bank account to play InTrade.

Brett85
01-03-2012, 01:01 PM
I've tried to get on Intrade several times in the past to make some bets, but it's a royal pain to setup and you have to mail or fax important personal records overseas.

I'd love to buy some Paul shares but the privacy and theft risks are too high for me.

You have to send them a check to get money into your account. That's what I had to do. It works, but the money took three weeks to get into my account.

dcjones
01-03-2012, 02:03 PM
Romney moving down on Intrade as of 3:05 EST;

Romney: 48.7%
Paul: 24.3
Santorum: 23.7%

dt_
01-03-2012, 02:08 PM
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
48.7%

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.0%

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.8%



It changed again. Santorum has a higher chance than Paul? FAT, FAT chance. Proves how irrelevant INtrade is , especially on the very day of the event.

braane
01-03-2012, 02:10 PM
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
48.7%

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.0%

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.8%



It changed again. Santorum has a higher chance than Paul? FAT, FAT chance. Proves how irrelevant INtrade is , especially on the very day of the event.

It's a great time to buy Paul.

truetrue
01-03-2012, 02:12 PM
Me too, and I hope you're right. I was just giving a reason that could shift the numbers on intrade.

JoshLowry
01-03-2012, 02:16 PM
Iowa is going to prove intrade wrong.

I tried buying some RP shares.

Anyone else get this error?

1109

Fetou
01-03-2012, 02:18 PM
Intrade is a solid indicator of what is going on but it not always accurate or rational. There are frequently chances for small amounts of arbitrage between markets.

Not arbitrage, but last night you could have made money by predicting Paul and Romney would be in the top 2. By buying one and hedging the other way, there was an expected positive return, with the only risk being Santorum coming from behind.

Agorism
01-03-2012, 06:19 PM
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
44.4%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
29.4%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
28.6%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
0.6%
CHANCE


Romney was 56 this morning so he's gone down, but Santorum also went up a bit.

Agorism
01-03-2012, 06:53 PM
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
37.5%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
29.2%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
28.8%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
0.7%
CHANCE Predict

Mitt Romney to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012

Event: 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
79.2%


Romney just hit 30's

Archie
01-03-2012, 07:01 PM
Sharp Money has been steaming the Santorum Line since late last night when you good get Rick at over 4-1 odds. The betting line is moving against Romney and against Ron Paul as the current line is presenting alot more value for those guys then it did last night.

Here is Betfair Live betting.

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=103732055&ex=1&origin=LHMA

Paul was at one point as low as 2.90 odds a few hours ago, now he is paying over 3.25 odds. Romney was as low as 2.19 odds a few hours ago and now he is paying over 2.40 odds. Alot of Money is coming on Santorum the last few hours be it to create a "middle" or to arb a future but the bottomline is the smart money is not counting out a surprise shock win by Rick tonight or atleast finishing at 2nd place.

I think RP will come in third tonight but I Hope to hell Im wrong.

Archie
01-03-2012, 07:26 PM
Holy shit Huge Line mov't just went RP's way on Betfair where you are only getting just over 2.10 odds for Ron Paul. This could be some Arbing or middles right now but bottom line is the early votes indicate RP is tied with Romney right now and the Market is moving against Rick and Romney due to this Early poll results. Santorum line went to over 5-1 at one point.

Johncjackson
01-03-2012, 07:47 PM
Paul was at 42% and Romney 40 a couple minutes ago.

pauliticalfan
01-03-2012, 07:48 PM
Finally overtook Romney on Intrade.

InTradePro
01-03-2012, 07:49 PM
Over 50% in intrade now.

merrimac
01-03-2012, 07:55 PM
Ron Paul at 42% and Mitt with 38%. If you have a gut feeling Bachmann can pull off her miracle now would be a good time to buy since she's about .1% LOL

Highstreet
01-03-2012, 08:08 PM
Ron Paul 50%
Romney 38%

merrimac
01-03-2012, 08:11 PM
Crap, Paul dropped 1%. He's still in the lead by a large amount but hope this isn't a trend.

merrimac
01-03-2012, 08:12 PM
Wow, take that back now he's at 55%

InTradePro
01-03-2012, 08:16 PM
Paul 3,821 25%
Romney 3,650 24%
Santorum 3,636 23%

Driven by results.

Agorism
01-03-2012, 08:17 PM
Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
35.5%
CHANCE Predict

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
50.0%
CHANCE Predict

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
18.5%
CHANCE Predict

Newt Gingrich to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

Event: Iowa Caucus (Republican)
0.3%

beat me to it. Looking better than Ames straw poll final intrade trend!

Highstreet
01-03-2012, 08:27 PM
Paul 55
Romney 28
Santorum 20

GunnyFreedom
01-04-2012, 12:36 AM
Paul 55
Romney 28
Santorum 20

LOL hey they got something right, they did put Mittens in 2nd.

Aratus
01-04-2012, 01:29 AM
mitt romney may have edged past rick santorum by 14 votes in the popular vote. how is intrade going to pay out if its a statistical tie?

GunnyFreedom
01-04-2012, 02:10 AM
Romney did edge Santorum. Now Intrade is 100% wrong.