2008 final RCP averages before Iowa caucus

[Agorism]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

[rp08orbust]

One thing I don't see people do is adjust RCP averages for the dispersal of undecideds when projecting actual vote percentages. It appears that the final undecided percentage in 2008 was 6.8%. Thus, each candidate would be expected to have their percentage multiplied by (1/0.932) in actual votes if the undecideds dispersed in proportion to the final RCP averages . For example, Mike Huckabee would have been expected to get 29.7/0.932 = 31.9, Ron Paul would have been expected to get 7.3/0.932 = 7.8%, etc.

So Mitt Romney and Giuliani underperformed even more than is typically observed.

Btw, this year the final undecided percentage is about 5.1%, meaning Mitt and Ron both stand to gain about a percentage point in actual votes.

[sailingaway]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

silly me, I thought it was going to be THIS YEAR's RCP average..... :rolleyes:

[dfalken]

Note that stupid CNN had Romney winning in their final poll. I guess Romney is their man huh?