Something to Watch Tonight

[CaptUSA]

If you want to get a real sense of what Iowa means, pay close attention to the distance between 2nd place and 3rd place. That will be more indicative than anything else.

Why?

Because the GOP party establishment is not keen on seeing Paul win. Therefore, they will do everything in their power to nudge their party faithful into one camp or another ahead of the vote. That's the 41% that you keep hearing is "undecided". Some of them will be swayed by speeches, but the rest will be swayed by who they think the party (their neighbors who are involved in operating the party's wishes) wants them to vote for. It will be incredibly hard for Ron Paul to overcome this, but it is possible.

However, if Paul comes in 2nd and the gap between 2nd and 3rd is large, then you will know that the party was successful in consolidating the establishment support to prevent a Paul win. If Paul does win, you can certainly expect the gap between 2nd and 3rd to be large, just not large enough to prevent Paul from taking this thing. If the gap between 2nd and third is small, then it means the party establishment has lost their ability to control the voters.

I find it hard to see a scenario in which Paul comes in 3rd.

The best outcome would be a Paul win with a large separation between 1st and 2nd, but a small gap between 2nd and 3rd. The media will report it as the other two "splitting the vote", but the party insiders will know the real story - and so will you.

[sailingaway]

I think they are more likely to be able to sway people supporting candidates 'who aren't going anywhere anyhow'. I think that is why Bachmann's polls dropped SO FAST once it was clear Santorum would be higher (even though it is because he is unvetted.) I can see evangelicals supporting Santorum encouraging those supporting Bachmann to shift over. I hope the evangelicals supporting Ron are trying to shift them to Ron, too, of course. Ron is only second in evangelical support -- after Santorum, unfortunately.

[CaptUSA]

Good point...

I would expect to see real low numbers for Bachman and Gingrich. Perry may be a different story. He seems to have some organization that may help him.

[Kevin Smyth]

I think they are more likely to be able to sway people supporting candidates 'who aren't going anywhere anyhow'. I think that is why Bachmann's polls dropped SO FAST once it was clear Santorum would be higher (even though it is because he is unvetted.) I can see evangelicals supporting Santorum encouraging those supporting Bachmann to shift over. I hope the evangelicals supporting Ron are trying to shift them to Ron, too, of course. Ron is only second in evangelical support -- after Santorum, unfortunately.

We should spread rumors of a last minute Bachmann surge to keep her fans loyal to her until the Iowa vote is over. I'm calling it now: Bachmann at 13% almost tied with Perry, she's not done in this race, new life for Bachmann. ;)

[randomname]

So who is the "chosen one" then? Has to be Romney right?

[Indiana4Paul]

If you want to get a real sense of what Iowa means, pay close attention to the distance between 2nd place and 3rd place. That will be more indicative than anything else.

Why?

Because the GOP party establishment is not keen on seeing Paul win. Therefore, they will do everything in their power to nudge their party faithful into one camp or another ahead of the vote. That's the 41% that you keep hearing is "undecided". Some of them will be swayed by speeches, but the rest will be swayed by who they think the party (their neighbors who are involved in operating the party's wishes) wants them to vote for. It will be incredibly hard for Ron Paul to overcome this, but it is possible.

However, if Paul comes in 2nd and the gap between 2nd and 3rd is large, then you will know that the party was successful in consolidating the establishment support to prevent a Paul win. If Paul does win, you can certainly expect the gap between 2nd and 3rd to be large, just not large enough to prevent Paul from taking this thing. If the gap between 2nd and third is small, then it means the party establishment has lost their ability to control the voters.

I find it hard to see a scenario in which Paul comes in 3rd.

The best outcome would be a Paul win with a large separation between 1st and 2nd, but a small gap between 2nd and 3rd. The media will report it as the other two "splitting the vote", but the party insiders will know the real story - and so will you.

This is a great point.

I feel good about our precinct captains going head to head with these guys and their rhetoric. The FACTS support Ron Paul on the issue of electability. The FACTS support Ron Paul on the #1 issue to caucus-goers, Government spending. Caucus goers will trust their eyes on the wide support Ron Paul has. For the past couple of months they've seen more Ron Paul signs than any other candidate and on Caucus night the people wearing Ron Paul shirts, hats and buttons will dwarf the support other candidates see.

I wouldn't want to be an establishment type trying to sway these undecideds and easily swayed votes in the face of this. Further,

[CJLauderdale4]

Your scenarios are accurate...and what comes out it is an establishment vs. Tea Party candidate in Ron Paul. Now the GOP will masterfully take all of those tea partners and convert them into establishment Romney supporters by unleashing an all out attack on Paul, even though he speaks to the tea party ideals. The question is...will it work?

[Krugerrand]

If you want to get a real sense of what Iowa means, pay close attention to the distance between 2nd place and 3rd place. That will be more indicative than anything else.

Why?

Because the GOP party establishment is not keen on seeing Paul win. Therefore, they will do everything in their power to nudge their party faithful into one camp or another ahead of the vote. That's the 41% that you keep hearing is "undecided". Some of them will be swayed by speeches, but the rest will be swayed by who they think the party (their neighbors who are involved in operating the party's wishes) wants them to vote for. It will be incredibly hard for Ron Paul to overcome this, but it is possible.

However, if Paul comes in 2nd and the gap between 2nd and 3rd is large, then you will know that the party was successful in consolidating the establishment support to prevent a Paul win. If Paul does win, you can certainly expect the gap between 2nd and 3rd to be large, just not large enough to prevent Paul from taking this thing. If the gap between 2nd and third is small, then it means the party establishment has lost their ability to control the voters.

I find it hard to see a scenario in which Paul comes in 3rd.

The best outcome would be a Paul win with a large separation between 1st and 2nd, but a small gap between 2nd and 3rd. The media will report it as the other two "splitting the vote", but the party insiders will know the real story - and so will you.

I sure thought this sounded good yesterday.

We've got the small gap between the 2nd and 3rd ... hopefully you're still right that the media is losing control. I'm hopeful that it is.

[Xenophage]

None of us saw Paul coming in third. We thought first or second for sure. What a blow. I am still sad.

[CaptUSA]

Oh damn, why'd you have to bring this back up??? I think sailingaway got it right yesterday. They pulled from the lower tier. The entrance polls gave them their cue. "Paul is going to win - If you wanted Bachman, Perry, or Gingrich, give your vote to Santorum or Romney - it's your choice!"