Iowa Caucus: Final Predictions

[1836]

All the information I could gather, anecdotes, and polls, go into this. It is not overly optimistic. But politics cannot be. Given what is really going on in Iowa, this seems to me the likeliest scenario.

I am going to give to these predictions a margin of error of +- 2%. That said, I expect the order of the top 3 to be as I predict here.

Iowa Final Results

Ron Paul, 26%
Rick Santorum, 24%
Mitt Romney, 20%
Newt Gingrich, 11%
Rick Perry, 9%
Michele Bachmann, 7%
Jon Huntsman, 3%

Turnout

Turnout will not reach 2008's record of almost 120,000. However, it will not dip to the anemic levels of 2000 (less than 90k).

I predict a turnout of 105,000.

Record high turnout of independents and Democrats in the caucus, record turnout of voters under 45.

Geography
Ron Paul wins Polk County (Des Moines) narrowly over Romney, thanks to heavy turnout in traditionally Democratic areas in southern Polk county and urban Des Moines. Romney will, however,win a few large individual precincts in Polk County. Ron Paul wins eastern Iowa's traditionally more Democratic areas, such as Davenport.

Santorum resoundingly wins northwest Iowa and most of Steve King's congressional district. Romney wins a few (15ish?) scattered counties where his organization is best... hard to say where exactly that is.

Explanation

Ron Paul has the best organization in Iowa and by far the most voters identified. Some of these voters will not turn out and some will defect to other candidates. However, in the end a larger than average number of independents will win the caucus for Paul. Also worth remembering that the Paul organization reaches into every last corner of the state. He will win a number of small counties, particularly in the east, thanks to the work of solid precinct captains.

Santorum will win the Republican vote as his surge carries him into the low 20s. Some of this is genuine Santorum support, and some of it will be Newt/Perry/Bachmann support bleeding off to the social conservative anti-Romney of the moment. Santorum likely gets Steve King's endorsement late Monday which gives Santorum a hold on the northwestern part of the state and a few points overall.

Romney underperforms, not because he hasn't tried, but because his support is soft and older. A larger number of young voters will leave Romney struggling to even break 20% in the caucuses.

Now, if you haven't donated recently... help make this result matter. Contribute generously to the campaign.

Iowa can happen. The nomination can happen. Keep working, keep praying.

[Dsylexic]

shouldnt hunstman get zero? he insulted iowan voters by calling them corn pickers who are incapable of choosing the president.

[1836]

shouldnt hunstman get zero? he insulted iowan voters by calling them corn pickers who are incapable of choosing the president.

Huntsman gets a little boost from the larger turnout of independents and Democrats. Trust me on this.

[Matthew Zak]

I sadly think Ron Paul is going to get third, with about 15%. Romney and Santorum will in the lower twenties.

The last few days have been... disheartening.

[Dsylexic]

santorum is doing us a favor if he comes second to paul.he will be encouraged to stay on into south carolina and eat up grinch/perry necon/boobus-evangelical votes. paul gets the intelligent evangelicals and the real conservatives. romney remains -and we go after him with SC ads.we should end up atleast a high second in SC with the divided field.

[1836]

I sadly think Ron Paul is going to get third, with about 15%. Romney and Santorum will in the lower twenties.

The last few days have been... disheartening.

You are underestimating the Iowa organization. Even with difficult late factors, even being a pessimist as I truly am about these things, the Iowa effort will prevail. Of this I am supremely confident.

[Dsylexic]

you think wrong.none of the polls have factored in independents .if they have,then paul is always shown in the lead.
the only reason for paul to lose would be if the young people dont turn up.but this is not the 'usual youg' people.these are the people who really want to kill status quo.not the partying goofballs.

second:we already have hard pledges of upto 30k (thats what rp said on the wallace show).we are atleast 25% even with a high turnout.

[1836]

you think wrong.none of the polls have factored in independents .if they have,then paul is always shown in the lead.
the only reason for paul to lose would be if the young people dont turn up.but this is not the 'usual youg' people.these are the people who really want to kill status quo.not the partying goofballs.

second:we already have hard pledges of upto 30k (thats what rp said on the wallace show).we are atleast 25% even with a high turnout.

Very likely more than 30k but you cannot expect them to turn out. I think we are looking at between 27 and 28 thousand votes, maybe a few more.

[Karsten]

If it's:
Paul 1st
Santorum 2nd
Romney 3rd

That would be the BEST POSSIBLE result for our New Hampshire prospects.

[Karsten]

I sadly think Ron Paul is going to get third, with about 15%. Romney and Santorum will in the lower twenties.

The last few days have been... disheartening.
The only polls that have showed us third are not even considered legitimate by Real Clear Politics.
The ones that show us down in the RCP average are all within the margin of error, and thus a statistical tie for first.
We have the best organization BY FAR.

[rp2012win]

Santorum likely gets Steve King's endorsement late Monday which gives Santorum a hold on the northwestern part of the state and a few points overall.He's been threatening to endorse if he thought ron paul could win. The guy has no convictions at all, but the sheep will enthusiastically walk the plank for him.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The only poll which worried everybody was DMR where it had us at 18%, the latest poll shows us at 20% in first place - stay cool everyone, it'll be a BIG suprise if we're lower than 20%.

[realtonygoodwin]

If it's:
Paul 1st
Santorum 2nd
Romney 3rd

That would be the BEST POSSIBLE result for our New Hampshire prospects.

Yes. It could help the race tighten up a lot, and a strong second could lead us into SC, which will be critical.

[Karsten]

I know we can and will win on Tuesday Night. But just remember, WHATEVER happens, it simply cannot go ANY worse than this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5FzCeV0ZFc

[Warrior_of_Freedom]

real numbers

Other 25%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%

[Karsten]

real numbers

Other 25%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%
I kind of doubt Romney will do much in the way of turnout due to his mismatch with socially conservative Iowa. Could be wrong though, anything can happen.

[John F Kennedy III]

If it's:
Paul 1st
Santorum 2nd
Romney 3rd

That would be the BEST POSSIBLE result for our New Hampshire prospects.

Agreed.

[TIMB0B]

Ron Paul will crack 30%

[jsem]

Paul 24%
Romney 23%
Santorum 21%

Something like that for the top three is my prediction.

[1836]

Ron Paul will crack 30%

I highly doubt it. Not that I wouldn't love it, but Ron has lost too much momentum to get over 30%. If turnout were down around 2000 levels, that might be possible.

[Jtorsella]

It's very possible that all of the ducks are lining up to put us and santorum in front of Romney so he loses momentum going into New Hampshire. If we can win NH and IA, we actually have a shot at the nomination.

[Sublyminal]

Tomorrow Iowa will either embarrass us or they will make us proud.

[Jtorsella]

Tomorrow Iowa will either embarrass us or they will make us proud.
Either
http://d37nnnqwv9amwr.cloudfront.net/photos/images/original/000/126/314/3cd8a33a.png?1306264975
Or
http://i.qkme.me/356ivh.jpg

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

Starting in early 2007 I allowed myself to have faith that good things could still come... As we enter 2012 I have no choice but to keep that hope alive. Let's go bag us Iowa.

[Matthew Zak]

After New Hampshire, if Ron Paul hasn't pulled in new support and doesn't have any momentum, how long before we throw our support behind Gary Johnson? Sincere question.

[jdmyprez_deo_vindice]

After New Hampshire, if Ron Paul hasn't pulled in new support and doesn't have any momentum, how long before we throw our support behind Gary Johnson? Sincere question.

Can we wait and see what happens in Iowa and NH before we even start wondering about that?

[milo10]

Iowa Final Results

Ron Paul, 26%
Rick Santorum, 24%
Mitt Romney, 20%
Newt Gingrich, 11%
Rick Perry, 9%
Michele Bachmann, 7%
Jon Huntsman, 3%



I am just trying to understand this.

Santorum has hardly anybody show up at his events. I can't imagine he has any PFH program to speak of. He did visit all 99 counties, which I think was one of the smartest moves of his campaign. I know he has the social conservative vote, but so does Perry and Bachmann, who both have more national name recognition. Bachmann might be in freefall, but I think even she pulls more people at events than Santorum does. Perry is running a lot of TV ads, and is frankly a much more likeable personality than Rick.

Who is the best organized in Iowa, btw, in terms of caucus speakers and getting voters out? I assume we are first, but second, third....

I really hope you are right, because a Paul-Santorum-Romney win would be incredible, but I don't see Rick beating Mitt. What am I missing?

[KingNothing]

Best organization in Iowa is Ron Paul, without question. Following Paul, Perry is probably second. Behind Perry, I would guess that Romney's campaign has the means and experience to GOTV. After Mittens..... probably everyone else has less-than-stellar ground games.

[milo10]

Best organization in Iowa is Ron Paul, without question. Following Paul, Perry is probably second. Behind Perry, I would guess that Romney's campaign has the means and experience to GOTV. After Mittens..... probably everyone else has less-than-stellar ground games.

Thanks. :) Knowing that makes me think it will be something like:

Paul
Romney
Santorum
Perry or Gingrich

I don't know if it will happen, but I like the idea of Perry beating Gingrich, as having Newt in 5th place behind both Perry and Santorum is a huge blow going into New Hampshire. Perry is basically irrelevant in New Hampshire, currently polling at 2% on Politico. Santorum will also be irrelevant there.

By South Carolina, Ron and Mitt should be the only two left standing in practical terms.

[Zydeco]

Rp 28%, winning

[jersdream]

Ron Paul 30.3%
Rick Santorum 25.5%
Mitt Romney 21.7%
Newt Gingrich 13.8%
Rick Perry 11.1%
Michele Bachmann 3.9%
Jon Huntsman 1.4%

[Johnnybags]

I believe we will set a New record for turnout. If not now, then when?


Turnout?

Turnout will not reach 2008's record of almost 120,000. However, it will not dip to the anemic levels of 2000 (less than 90k).

I predict a turnout of 105,000.

Record high turnout of independents and Democrats in the caucus, record turnout of voters under 45.

[KingNothing]

Ron Paul 96%
Gary Johnson 4%


:-)

[Liberty74]

Paul 30
Romney 22
Sanatorum 21

This is what I hope, not what I expect which is a very tight 3 way race which could go either way due to the Santorum surge and the the lack of senior support for Paul who always show up. Just saying...

[freedomforever!]

My dream:

Paul 99%
Hunstman 0.3%
Bachmann 0.3%
Perry 0.3%
Johnson 0.1 %

[Joseph]

My hope is that Ron Paul gets bare minimum 25 percent, hopefully more like 28-30 percent.

[limequat]

After New Hampshire, if Ron Paul hasn't pulled in new support and doesn't have any momentum, how long before we throw our support behind Gary Johnson? Sincere question.

What's Gary Johnson polling nationally? Sincere question.

[pauladin]

Ron Paul 30.3%
Rick Santorum 25.5%
Mitt Romney 21.7%
Newt Gingrich 13.8%
Rick Perry 11.1%
Michele Bachmann 3.9%
Jon Huntsman 1.4%

Lol your numbers add up to 107.7%

[limequat]

Lol your numbers add up to 107.7%

He probably works for insider advantage

[VictorB]

I had a dream last night about the caucus. The results were:

Paul 29%
Santorum 22%
Romney 20%
Perry 13%

and the rest I don't remember, but I think Bachmann had like 3%.

[limequat]

I had a dream last night about the caucus. The results were:

Paul 29%
Santorum 22%
Romney 20%
Perry 13%

and the rest I don't remember, but I think Bachmann had like 3%.

I'm glad that I'm not the only one having RP dreams. Serious stalker shit, there.

[No Free Beer]

Damn man, you really broke this thing down. For that, I give you a +rep.

To your question/prediction

Paul
Romney
Santorum

That is mine

[No Free Beer]

Update from PPP:

Sat: Romney 21, Paul 19, Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10. Sun: Paul 21, Romney/Santorum 18, Newt 14, Perry 10

I dont know if anyone posted this...

[Forty Twice]

I predict 125,000 turnout with final tally of:

Ron Paul 32%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 11%
Perry 7%
Bachmann 7%
Huntsman 3%
Roemer 1%

I feel insiders have known for a while that Paul will win Iowa easily. Corporate media propaganda (including poll manipulations) have tried
to dampen Paul's lead. Polls look close but nobody on TV's declaring that Iowa is relevant again.

I believe ultimate RNC and corporate media objective is for Romney (or Perry) to win. Then the general election is between two Goldman Sachs candidates. Mission accomplished for the .01%. I still expect that result even if it takes something unspeakably ugly to
accomplish it.

With four Tea-O-Cons splitting that vote, Romney or Perry were supposed to win based solely on his perceived electability. But I think
three things went wrong for the RNC. Perry had his Ooops moments, Romney is a putz, and internet media/Ron Paul have been very
effective.

With the Tea-O-Con vote so evenly split, there is no effective non-Ron alternative to Romney. Then Romney has failed to motivate
many voters to turn out for him either. Internet media is providing an effective counter to corporate media plus Ron has put together
an excellent message. Ron Paul is 100X the better politician than any of his opponents. He's a man among children.

I expect low turnout from traditional Republicans because they lack enthusiasm for Romney or any Tea-O-Con. Recent Santorum push
may simply be an effort to provide hope for Tea-O-Cons so more might turn out. His surge looks like complete fiction headed for epic
failure.

As for non-traditional turnout, it should be higher than advertised (more than 24%) because of extreme energy for Paul and, in contrast
to 2008, no rock-star alternative on Democratic side. Whereas 2008 was a horrible year to expect the young, independent, and
Democrat to vote for Paul, this is the perfect storm for heavy turnout.

[vita3]

Victory

[jax]

If there's a good turnout:

Ron: 27%
Frothy: 21%
Mitt: 19%
Newt: 13%
Perry: 11%

[tttar]

What are your opinions on this?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2011/12/iowa-gop-moving-votecount-to-undisclosed-location-108812.html

http://lewrockwell.com/orig7/trotter9.1.1.html

[justatrey]

Paul pulls off the impossible and wins by less than 100 votes. So something like

Paul 24.51%
Romney 24.50%
Santorum 20%

[nasonex]

Paul 26%

[Son of Detroit]

Steve King just said on Fox:

"I think Romney and Santorum will be in the top two, and it should be interesting to see if Ron Paul can hang on to the top 3 or if someone else will take that spot".

http://troll.me/images/jackie-chan-whut/jackie-chan-whut.jpg

[tttar]

So we have no concerns about how all these wonderful votes will actually be counted?

This guy got no replies:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?342998-The-Iowa-caucus-votes-MUST-BE-MONITORED-OR-WE-WILL-LOSE-AGAIN!

[justatrey]

So we have no concerns about how all these wonderful votes will actually be counted?

This guy got no replies:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?342998-The-Iowa-caucus-votes-MUST-BE-MONITORED-OR-WE-WILL-LOSE-AGAIN!

The campaign has plans in place to monitor the count:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?343183-IMPORTANT-Ron-Paul-Facebook-Page-asks-us-NOT-to-Watch-the-Vote!

[tttar]

The campaign has plans in place to monitor the count:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?343183-IMPORTANT-Ron-Paul-Facebook-Page-asks-us-NOT-to-Watch-the-Vote!

Thanks, I missed that. Maybe the thread should be stickied. What did you think about Trotter's article?

http://lewrockwell.com/orig7/trotter9.1.1.html

[bobburn]

Paul overperforms compared to the polls, gets 27%
Romney and Frothy hit at 19% each.
Perry at 13%
Gingrich at 9%
and then the rest.

[justatrey]

Thanks, I missed that. Maybe the thread should be stickied. What did you think about Trotter's article?

http://lewrockwell.com/orig7/trotter9.1.1.html

One interesting possibility mentioned in that article would be a delay in the release of the results, which could also delay any momentum the winner would get leading up to NH.

Believe me, I think if Paul has the votes to win, the establishment would steal it from him at the drop of a hat...if they can. It's very, very difficult to pull off vote rigging since the results can be verified later by simply adding up the totals from each individual caucus location. We just have to trust the campaign when they tell us they've got it under control.

[tttar]

"We just have to trust the campaign when they tell us they've got it under control. "

If this had been made as obvious as the "free bumper sticker" sticky thread, I would have kept my stupid mouth shut about it. :)

I did look first, but that Trotter guy seemed to have already done all the heavy thinking on this for me.

[iamse7en]

I think the CFR-banking cartel is more prepared than we think and will fudge the numbers in Santorum's favor. And the CFR-media will have a conniption saying how this changes everything. Iowa will then matter.