Five thirty eight - calculation of chances to win from PPP poll

[sailingaway]

but then they blow it by saying it 'isnt far from a three way tie', Santorum is ten points down so I don't get that.

fivethirtyeight Nate Silver
Our model has Romney with a 38% chance of winning, Paul 34%, Santorum 24%. Not far from a straight 3-way tie. nyti.ms/uPwUJc

[sailingaway]

But then they tweeted this vote range: @fivethirtyeight: Our updated Iowa forecast: Romney 21.0, Paul 20.6, Santorum 19.3, Gingrich 14.3. nyti.ms/uPwUJc

[Rincewind]

Oh, good. A few minutes ago it was Romney and Paul at 41 and 31. Since then Nate split the 2 days of the PPP poll, like he did with the DMR poll, and since Paul went up on Sunday he got a boost.

[Karsten]

But then they tweeted this vote range: @fivethirtyeight: Our updated Iowa forecast: Romney 21.0, Paul 20.6, Santorum 19.3, Gingrich 14.3. nyti.ms/uPwUJc
That's stupid. Everybody ends up getting a few points more than their poll numbers, because the last minute undecideds. Just look at the 2008 poll numbers and results on both the Democratic and Republican sides.

[Agorism]

PPP should just send their pollsters right back into the field for day 3 of polling.

[rawful]

Now let's split it up hour by hour...

[sailingaway]

PPP should just send their pollsters right back into the field for day 3 of polling.

lol! you tell them that...

[Rincewind]

Now let's split it up hour by hour...

lol...

Get ready for Paul 40%, Romney 40%, Santorum 20%, MOE of +/- 35%.

[Aratus]

i assume Indys + Dems go to Romney + Paul!
the Is + Ds would avoid Santorum + Gingrich.

[pauliticalfan]

That's a pretty big swing in our direction. Just a little while ago Romney had like a 60% chance. We can do this.

[Liberty Shark]

But then they tweeted this vote range: @fivethirtyeight: Our updated Iowa forecast: Romney 21.0, Paul 20.6, Santorum 19.3, Gingrich 14.3. nyti.ms/uPwUJc

Hey, if I was told this information in July 2008 (when I first seriously began listening to Dr. Paul), I would have probably fainted. It's absolutely incredible that there is this chance, although looking back on it I am not as surprised given the dedication and strict adherence to the Constitution and liberty that Dr. Paul and supporters have.