PPP Poll (SUNDAY 1/1) Poll: Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18

[SchleckBros]

Sat:
Romney 21
Paul 19
Santorum 18
Newt 14
Perry 10

Sun:
Paul 21 (+2)
Romney 18 (-3)
Santorum 18
Newt 14,
Perry 10

Two Day Polling (Sat & Sun)
Paul 20
Romney 19
Santorum 18
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 4
Roemer 2

Edit:

Title needs fixed, I was a little too ancy when I saw PPP tweet this.

[kylejack]

Larger MOE when you split it out like that, though. I just hope we don't bleed too much more in the next couple days.

[dude58677]

Sat:
Romney 21
Paul 19
Santorum 18
Newt 14
Perry 10

Sun:
Paul 21 (+2)
Romney 18 (-2)
Santorum 18
Newt 14,
Perry 10

Two Day Polling (Sat & Sun)
Paul 20
Romney 19
Santorum 18
Gingrich 14
Perry 10
Bachmann 8
Huntsman 4
Roemer 2

Edit:

Title needs fixed, I was a little too ancy when I saw PPP tweet this.


LOL, what goes around comes around!

[pauliticalfan]

It's actually Romney -3, no?

[Rincewind]

Larger MOE when you split it out like that, though. I just hope we don't bleed too much more in the next couple days.

Sure, but this poll had a sample size of 1340 to begin with.

The entire DMR poll - all 4 days - was only 600. The CNN/Time poll that started the Santorum surge was 452.

[SchleckBros]

It's actually Romney -3, no?

my bad. you're correct.

[blazeKing]

PAUL SURGING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Agorism]

What was margin of error for PPP vs DMR

[SchleckBros]

Ron Paul and Rand Paul were on FOUR news shows this morning. I have a feeling Paul gained some new supporters after all those interviews which might explain why he had polled better on Sunday.

[Liberty Shark]

Such encouraging news to see this Sunday surge. This shows me that Dr. Paul's "floor" is at 20%, whereas the media claimed that was his "ceiling".

[Agorism]

Why did they tweet that it looked like a two man race between paul and romney on saturday when Santorum was up there as well.

[emr1028]

Sure, but this poll had a sample size of 1340 to begin with.

The entire DMR poll - all 4 days - was only 600. The CNN/Time poll that started the Santorum surge was 452.

Honestly though, that means very little. The CNN poll was heavily flawed for other reasons but the DMR poll should serve as another wakeup call.

[Rincewind]

What was margin of error for PPP vs DMR

2.7% for the PPP poll. 4% for the entire DMR. 5.6% for 2 days of the DMR.

[boneyard bill]

This is a bit more comforting in any case. It shows the race tightening a bit since the last PPP poll, but it doesn't show Ron Paul plunging like the AskAmerica poll or the second day of the DMR poll showed. It's a tight race and still very fluid, but Santorum does seem to be gaining some momentum.

[Agorism]

What was DMR sample size?

[Agorism]

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, was based on telephone interviews with 602 likely Republican caucusgoers Dec. 27-30. The margin of error for the full four days is plus or minus 4 percentage points. For the last two days, 302 likely GOP caucusgoers were surveyed, and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging/

[Rincewind]

Honestly though, that means very little. The CNN poll was heavily flawed for other reasons but the DMR poll should serve as another wakeup call.

Point is that, considering margin of error, the last 2 days of the DMR poll basically said Paul was between 12.4% and 23.6%. The PPP poll today basically says that Paul is between 17.3% and 22.7%. Which means that, with margin of error incorporated, the last 2 days of the DMR poll, when viewed in context and compared to the PPP poll, may not be so bad.

[pauladin]

Paul
Santorum
Romney

will be the most beautiful thing I've ever seen in my life.

[Rincewind]

What was DMR sample size?

600. 150 each day. So the last-2-days stat which has been rather heavily publicized was a sample size of 300 with a margin of error of 5.6%.

[Fermli]

Paul
Santorum
Romney

will be the most beautiful thing I've ever seen in my life.

This will be what propels us to NH victory.

[sailingaway]

Yeah, watch them NOT break out that Santorum's 'momentum' has stalled and Romney has gone down, and Ron has started back up.

[DRV45N05]

Just asked a friend of mine about the daily breakdown.

He said the sample was split evenly on each of Saturday and Sunday- 670 on Saturday, 670 on Sunday. MOE is +/-3.8% on each day.

So Paul's lead on Sunday is within the MOE, but it's on the edge of it.

[Canderson]

How come PPP is the only polling firm that registers Roemer???

[Rincewind]

How come PPP is the only polling firm that registers Roemer???

I think it was because Roemer asked them nicely.

No joke.

[sailingaway]

Ron Paul and Rand Paul were on FOUR news shows this morning. I have a feeling Paul gained some new supporters after all those interviews which might explain why he had polled better on Sunday.

I think he bounced up from the day before when the DMR had him BELOW Santorum. I think people just started seeing Ron wasn't 'that guy'.