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View Full Version : DMR Crosstabs Show 61% Males Polled




Adrock
01-01-2012, 11:03 AM
The DMR polled 61% Male and 39% Female. That seems really off compared to any other poll I have ever looked at. First noticed this on Politico from this woman's comment:

"I've been looking at the results of the Iowa Poll, which - like other recent polls - has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a statistical tie for first place with likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers and Rick Santorum surging. One thing I noticed is the gender make-up of the sample, with 69% men and 31% women respondents. Women attend the Iowa Caucuses in larger proportions. Checking recent data collected from exit polling, women make up 46% to 49% of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa (Democratic women in Iowa caucus in higher percentages). A recent Iowa State University poll showed Ron Paul as the only candidate with a statistically significant edge, when compared to the other candidates, with likely women Republican caucus-goers. It will be interesting to see if gender plays a role in the actual results of the Iowa Republican Caucus compared to the Iowa Poll results."

LINK (http://www.politico.com/arena/perm/Dianne_Bystrom_8F1F0233-60D5-4167-A40B-5BC4A4727A53.html) to Comment

LINK (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/pdf/FullTopLineResults.pdf) to Crosstabs

Adrock
01-01-2012, 11:04 AM
Someone should tweet PPP to see what they think about that sample.

Jtorsella
01-01-2012, 11:05 AM
I always thought Ron did worse with women. Maybe that's just a stereotype.

sailingaway
01-01-2012, 11:07 AM
I always thought Ron did worse with women. Maybe that's just a stereotype.

he had until he started running his ads and clarifying that he was preserving social security and health care for the poor in his budget

but only one poll has shown women for him, yet.

blazeKing
01-01-2012, 11:09 AM
Same, I was under the impression he polled better with males

bluesc
01-01-2012, 11:10 AM
What happened to this pollster priding herself on not trying to shape the turnout?

braane
01-01-2012, 11:11 AM
Same, I was under the impression he polled better with males

It isn't about what Ron Paul is going to poll with women. It's about what Santorum is polling with women, I would guess. Ron's women vote is pretty close to the male vote +/- 2.

I am guessing Santorum gets a lot more of the male vote. I would have to check previous poll data to confirm.

bbartlog
01-01-2012, 11:12 AM
It's possible that the male turnout will be higher than usual this year and that the percentage just reflects that. If they didn't deliberately try to set up fixed size samples of men and women I expect this is just a statistical artifact.

Agorism
01-01-2012, 11:12 AM
Females vote Democrat. Males vote Republican.

Why is that sample wrong?

parocks
01-01-2012, 11:13 AM
The DMR polled 61% Male and 39% Female. That seems really off compared to any other poll I have ever looked at. First noticed this on Politico from this woman's comment:

"I've been looking at the results of the Iowa Poll, which - like other recent polls - has Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a statistical tie for first place with likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers and Rick Santorum surging. One thing I noticed is the gender make-up of the sample, with 69% men and 31% women respondents. Women attend the Iowa Caucuses in larger proportions. Checking recent data collected from exit polling, women make up 46% to 49% of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa (Democratic women in Iowa caucus in higher percentages). A recent Iowa State University poll showed Ron Paul as the only candidate with a statistically significant edge, when compared to the other candidates, with likely women Republican caucus-goers. It will be interesting to see if gender plays a role in the actual results of the Iowa Republican Caucus compared to the Iowa Poll results."

LINK (http://www.politico.com/arena/perm/Dianne_Bystrom_8F1F0233-60D5-4167-A40B-5BC4A4727A53.html) to Comment

LINK (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/pdf/FullTopLineResults.pdf) to Crosstabs

what you are calling crosstabs are actually what are called toplines.

sailingaway
01-01-2012, 11:13 AM
It's possible that the male turnout will be higher than usual this year and that the percentage just reflects that. If they didn't deliberately try to set up fixed size samples of men and women I expect this is just a statistical artifact.

that is quite possible.

parocks
01-01-2012, 11:14 AM
It isn't about what Ron Paul is going to poll with women. It's about what Santorum is polling with women, I would guess. Ron's women vote is pretty close to the male vote +/- 2.

I am guessing Santorum gets a lot more of the male vote. I would have to check previous poll data to confirm.

There are no crosstabs that I can see. Ron Paul usually does better with young males.

The last PPP has
Ron paul 19% women / 29% men
Santorum 11% women / 10% men

braane
01-01-2012, 11:16 AM
It isn't about what Ron Paul is going to poll with women. It's about what Santorum is polling with women, I would guess. Ron's women vote is pretty close to the male vote +/- 2.

I am guessing Santorum gets a lot more of the male vote. I would have to check previous poll data to confirm.

And that doesn't hold water... at least not in PPP's last poll (Santorum -- Women: 11 Men:10)

And actually, Ron's poll numbers in the latest PPP poll were 29% men 19% women

So technically he should have way overpolled with that men/women ratio

Adrock
01-01-2012, 11:16 AM
I have never seen this type of difference between males and females. At the most a 45% - 55% swing. I wish we could see what kind of M/F sample size the final two days of polling had.

blazeKing
01-01-2012, 11:17 AM
Well Santorum did go hunting and drank a beer. He got his frothy man card. (lol)

airborne373
01-01-2012, 11:21 AM
This is just a though. Is it possible that internal polling not released is showing RP with a significant lead in Iowa. And all the panic of the bought-out media is an attempt to prevent a Ron Paul avalanche? If RP where to win Iowa by a large margin it would signify the end of the Neo-Con reign of power.

Agorism
01-01-2012, 11:23 AM
Republican pollsters are supposed to oversample men otherwise the sample won't reflect the actual voters.

BUSHLIED
01-01-2012, 05:24 PM
can anyone find the crosstabs for the new DMR poll. I can't.

Liberty Shark
01-01-2012, 05:36 PM
I'm looking at data that DMR has released, or at least the link RCP links to, and I have to say that I am not impressed by the data there. I don't see much detail at all. I will wait and see what PPP says tonight. If PPP doesn't find Santorum in or very close to second, I am calling the DMR poll total b.s. propaganda. Even if it does, I still think that DMR is full of it. Due to what they released on the final two day split, that alone could cause some voters to strategically change to the Santorum side. We will see in about 5 hrs.