Des Moines Poll for first 2 days

[rp2012win]

First 2 days of Des Moines Poll:

Paul: 26%
Mitt: 24%
Santorum: 9%

The first two days of the poll, Paul had an average of 26% compared to 9% for Santorum. The gamechanger was the CNN poll that came out on Wednesday which the media said gave Santorum momentum. Therefore, the polling on thursday and friday showed the most dramatic surge I have ever seen for anyone in single digits. The power of the media is breathtaking.

[pauliticalfan]

So an outlier poll of JUST REPUBLICANS led to another poll showing a surge. Absolutely ridiculous. Fuck CNN. They've done everything they can to bring Ron down since day 1.

[Jtorsella]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.

[WD-NY]

First 2 days of Des Moines Poll:

Paul: 26%
Mitt: 24%
Santorum: 9%

The first two days of the poll, Paul had an average of 26% compared to 9% for Santorum. The gamechanger was the CNN poll that came out on Wednesday which the media said gave Santorum momentum. Therefore, the polling on thursday and friday showed the most dramatic surge I have ever seen for anyone in single digits. The power of the media is breathtaking.

And the CNN poll was panned by EVERYONE as being completely BS... and yet... AMAZING how that happens =/

[doronster195]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.

What kind of attitude is that? Awfully immature of you to say such things based off of mere polls.

[hueylong]

It wasn't the CNN poll as much as the continued collapse of Gingrich, and THEN the colossal collapse of Bachmann.

[kah13176]

Get your heads out of the sand! Poll does, and always has, included Independents.

[unknown]

Which was the CNN poll? I just made a $25 contribution. :)

[unknown]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.

Hahahahahah. I kinda know how you feel but as soon as I start to feel this way, the desperation sets in knowing what our country will become if Ron Paul doesn't win.

That just gives me a surge. I donate more and phonebank more so I'm actually glad for these minor set backs.

[rp2012win]

From a Des Moines Register article today:

"A smiling Rick Santorum, his crowds growing as his poll numbers rise, said Saturday night his presidential campaign in Iowa is gaining momentum because Iowans are ignorig national pundits and making decisions for themselves."

[Guitarzan]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.


Goodbye troll.

[Jtorsella]

Goodbye troll.
Seriously? We've just had a bit of bad campaign news and I feel bad about the state of the world. How am I a troll?

[BucksforPaul]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.

Then what the fuck are you still doing here. If you are done then leave so we do not have to put up with your constant negativity. You only goal here is to discourage others but it will not work so you need to employ better tactics. We will never quit so save your effort.

[Jtorsella]

Then what the fuck are you still doing here. If you are done then leave so we do not have to put up with your constant negativity. You only goal here is to discourage others but it will not work so you need to employ better tactics. We will never quit so save your effort.
I don't mean to discourage people, I'm just angry that the system could do this after so much work.

[AngryCanadian]

From a Des Moines Register article today:

"A smiling Rick Santorum, his crowds growing as his poll numbers rise, said Saturday night his presidential campaign in Iowa is gaining momentum because Iowans are ignorig national pundits and making decisions for themselves."

Oh really Des Moines Register

because Iowans are ignorig national pundits and making decisions for themselves
Yeah thats why they will vote for paul.

[anewvoice]

Seriously? We've just had a bit of bad campaign news and I feel bad about the state of the world. How am I a troll?

There tend to be overreactions at bad news, often times from folks just stirring shit up. Don't feel bad, send another $20.12 if you can and let the campaign do their job.

[MRoCkEd]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.
Concern trolling, much?

[Student Of Paulism]

Lol this is a fing joke. Sanitarium is going to go to 2nd place in 2 fing days? REALLY? Yea..sure he is :rolleyes:

Again, lets get this right. 26% > 18% in TWO DAYS for RP. Frothy goes from 9% to 2nd place at 21%. LOL and with a base of 300 voters sampled?...uh huh. This is truly the biggest steaming pile of crap ive seen so far this year. Anyone buying into that, should definitely vote for Sanf'ingtorum then, because if they believe this, then they would easily believe in his bs too.

[Sublyminal]

From a Des Moines Register article today:

"A smiling Rick Santorum, his crowds growing as his poll numbers rise, said Saturday night his presidential campaign in Iowa is gaining momentum because Iowans are ignorig national pundits and making decisions for themselves."


"He said to all 12 of his supporters"... 10 of which were eating lunch and getting ready to go back onto the clock.

[skytoucher]

Lol this is a fing joke. Sanitarium is going to go to 2nd place in 2 fing days? REALLY? Yea..sure he is :rolleyes:

Again, lets get this right. 26% > 18% in TWO DAYS for RP. Frothy goes from 9% to 2nd place at 21%. LOL and with a base of 300 voters sampled?...uh huh. This is truly the biggest steaming pile of crap ive seen so far this year. Anyone buying into that, should definitely vote for Sanf'ingtorum then, because if they believe this, then they would easily believe in his bs too.

/agreed

[TomtheTinker]

Everything is good..we are tied going into the final couple days.wasn't this what we have hoped for?

[AlexAmore]

Lol this is a fing joke. Sanitarium is going to go to 2nd place in 2 fing days? REALLY? Yea..sure he is :rolleyes:

Again, lets get this right. 26% > 18% in TWO DAYS for RP. Frothy goes from 9% to 2nd place at 21%. LOL and with a base of 300 voters sampled?...uh huh. This is truly the biggest steaming pile of crap ive seen so far this year. Anyone buying into that, should definitely vote for Sanf'ingtorum then, because if they believe this, then they would easily believe in his bs too.

LOL well put.

[Liberty Shark]

We will see what the PPP poll says tomorrow. From what PPP tweeted today, I am not panicking. The only thing that has me a little worried is if all the social conservatives move to Santorum in a strategic move. It's not over yet. Also the democrat crossover will be key.

[Jtorsella]

We will see what the PPP poll says tomorrow. From what PPP tweeted today, I am not panicking. The only thing that has me a little worried is if all the social conservatives move to Santorum in a strategic move. It's not over yet. Also the democrat crossover will be key.
This. The biggest consolation is that DMR did NOT poll dems, only indies. If the ppp poll has us in first, we can win.

[dbill27]

The only thing more insane than a santorum surge is us believing it or wasting time thinking of it. Mark my words, he comes in 5th, this is a complete media fabrication. I mean seriously, santorum? I hope he does surge though, it will be fun if he beats Gingrich or Perry or Bachman, let that fun thought sit in your head for a moment.

[rp2012win]

We will see what the PPP poll says tomorrow. From what PPP tweeted today, I am not panicking. The only thing that has me a little worried is if all the social conservatives move to Santorum in a strategic move. It's not over yet. Also the democrat crossover will be key.The PPP also gives me hope. With the Des Moines Poll, the last two days were conducted at a time of non stop positive news of a surge for Santorum. Thus, it's expected people would give him their support if contacted by telephone to participate in the survey after having watched the TV coverage. It's a whole different ballgame for their to be a media blackout over new years weekend and then having to go caucus on Tuesday for Santorum. The "freshness" of the Santorum surge will no long be in their minds as it was when they were answering the telephone survey.

[RickyJ]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.

It is just a poll, not the vote. Definitely not time to give up.

[bbartlog]

The big swings from the first to the second half are extremely likely to be mostly random variation (sampling error). I don't doubt some Santorum improvement based on the web search data we have, but when you consider that both the first and second number are (individually) each +/-6%, the most likely explanation is that the overall improvement was less than was measured, that the first reading was a little low and the second a little high. 13 (measured as 9) to 18 (measured as 21) rather than (actually) 9 to 21 makes a lot more sense. I would tend to discount any analysis that placed disproportionate weight on the second-half numbers (only) for that reason.

[misterx]

It is just a poll, not the vote. Definitely not time to give up.

This we should all be able to agree on.

[enoch150]

We will see what the PPP poll says tomorrow. From what PPP tweeted today, I am not panicking. The only thing that has me a little worried is if all the social conservatives move to Santorum in a strategic move. It's not over yet. Also the democrat crossover will be key.

PPP Tweets are hardly reassuring.

http://i41.tinypic.com/25qaequ.jpg

[RonPaulFanInGA]

First 2 days of Des Moines Poll:

Paul: 26%
Mitt: 24%
Santorum: 9%

So what would this look like if not for the BS CNN poll creating a false narrative of a Santorum surge?

Santorum is done even if he wins.

[TheDrakeMan]

PPP Tweets are hardly reassuring.

http://i41.tinypic.com/25qaequ.jpg

"Still looks very close between Paul and Romney"

The last poll showed Paul with 5 points over Romney. If it still looks similar to that then it's good news.

[EuRa]

We're having this discussion because of 63 total people who voted Santorum in a 2-day span.

Not hard to skew the numbers, call an area on the map that Santorum visited where nobody else did. Plenty of those places you know.

63 people is hardly anyone. And while the margin of error was 5.6%, for the second half of the polling, it was much MUCH higher.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

PPP Tweets are hardly reassuring.

http://i41.tinypic.com/25qaequ.jpg

"Very close between Paul and Romney" and "some chance" Santorum wins sounds fine to me.

[RickyJ]

We're having this discussion because of 63 total people who voted Santorum in a 2-day span.

Not hard to skew the numbers, call an area on the map that Santorum visited where nobody else did. Plenty of those places you know.

63 people is hardly anyone. And while the margin of error was 5.6%, for the second half of the polling, it was much MUCH higher.

They don't even have to do that much, they can just totally fudge the numbers. Their reputation is not on the line cause the elite don't care, they know the poll is for them to give them the opportunity to get away with voter fraud.

[Adrock]

I'm done. Screw this, screw everything we've worked for. I'm done. No more. I can't keep trying after this.

I would suggest at least waiting for the PPP poll tomorrow before bailing. That will tell us what kind of shape we are actually in.