What time does the DMR come out??

[Canderson]

What time tomorrow do we get the big poll???? Have they said???? Predictions?

[Fermli]

Final Iowa Des Moines Register Poll will be released Saturday 7pm.

[braane]

Tomorrow @ 7PM CST I believe

Prediction:

Paul 26
Romney 22
Gingrich 13
Perry 13
Santorum 13
Bachman 7

[Sublyminal]

Tomorrow @ 7PM CST I believe

Paul 26
Romney 22
Gingrich 13
Perry 13
Santorum 13
Bachman 7


Are these their numbers?

[braane]

Are these their numbers?

No. The poll hasn't been released. I should have said prediction.

[Sublyminal]

No. The poll hasn't been released. I should have said prediction.

Ahh, okay. I was about to do some early celebrations.

[Agorism]

Well in 07', they polled 27 to 30th, and they released on the 31st.

If they were PPP, then maybe they could compile 300 page report in one hour and release it tonight an hour after they finish in the field.

But they not that fast I guess.

[Canderson]

UGH! THE ANTICIPATION IS KILLING ME

[eduardo89]

Well in 07', they polled 27 to 30th, and they released on the 31st.

If they were PPP, then maybe they could compile 300 page report in one hour and release it tonight an hour after they finish in the field.

But they not that fast I guess.

PPP is pretty impressive.

[Agorism]

Only thin that gives me some confidence is that CNN's numbers were essentially the same as the last PPP if you compare the registered R's part of it.

The rest of these polls have generally been a disaster, but I don't really trust them anyways.

[undergroundrr]

I'm a little dubious at the reverence people seem to have for this poll. Yeah, it was pretty close last year. But people win the lottery too.

Plus, this time the Des Moines Register really needs to spin up the guy they endorsed.

If it shows Paul at 35% or above, it's accurate. Otherwise, meh. :D

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Will this be all caucus goers or just registered Republicans or what?

[eduardo89]

Will this be all caucus goers or just registered Republicans or what?

I'm pretty sure all caucus goers. There's only been one poll recently that was just registered GOP.

[Agorism]

DMR and PPP have generally been reasonably favorable to us, and those are the last two coming out this weekend that we know of.

[Canderson]

DMR and PPP have generally been reasonable favorable to us, and those are the last two coming out this weekend that we know of.

When do we get the PPP one?

[eduardo89]

When do we get the PPP one?
First, above Romney. Can't remember the exact numbers, something like 23-21

Edit: 24-20 for Ron
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/ppp-polls-iowa-paul-24-romney-20-gingrich-13_614928.html

[pauliticalfan]

Prediction

Romney 24
Paul 24
Santorum 17

All about the turnout baby.

[braane]

When do we get the PPP one?
Sunday night

[sailingaway]

Prediction

Romney 24
Paul 24
Santorum 17

All about the turnout baby.

REGARDLESS of the numbers, it is all about turn out.

[Agorism]

PPP comes out Sunday night 11:30-12 PM eastern time

[eduardo89]

When do we get the PPP one?

Dammit, misread your post. Thought you were asking what we got on the last ppp one. The last poll comes out Saturday night.

[Sublyminal]

First, above Romney. Can't remember the exact numbers, something like 23-21

Edit: 24-20 for Ron
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/ppp-polls-iowa-paul-24-romney-20-gingrich-13_614928.html


Hope this keeps up and Ron adds 10 more %.

[eduardo89]

Hope this keeps up and Ron adds 10 more %.

As long as theres a strong indie/democrat turnout, 30%+ is not out of the question for Ron

[Sublyminal]

As long as theres a strong indie/democrat turnout, 30%+ is not out of the question for Ron


Landslide victory pretty much gives RP second in NH and possibly first.

[Agorism]

Observation- Iowa will NOT be won with anything under 25% of the vote and most likely not anything under 30% either.

Lowest it's ever been won by was 26% Bob Dole in 1996. It's highly likely that even in a divided field someone is going to hit at least the high twenties although who knows who at this point.

[ronpaulfollower999]

Considering I nailed the last PPP NH poll, I figure Ill take a crack at this one.

Prediction

Paul 22
Romney 21
Santorum 15
Perry 12
Gingrich 11
Bachmann 5
Huntsman 2

[Aratus]

bump

[BUSHLIED]

I have faith in the organization...the polls really don't matter to me at this point unless... If Ron is within margin of error of Romney, we win, period. If Romney opens a 5% lead we lose...plain and simple...It will be that close unless of course, I am underestimating the complete anger and the non-republicans really turn out and 30% go towards Ron, in this case, we could win by more than 5%....and the polls are not going to capture that...so, take a deep breath, have a good new years and be ready jan2 to be tuned in!

[Student Of Paulism]

As seen during the last week, they are moving away from the hit pieces and smears now and trying to use tactics to sway people from voting for him, and using other low tier candidates like Bachmann and Sanitarium to draw votes from Ron and keep Mitt in first. They are both being told to stay in the race for this reason, because if they drop out now, supporters could go to Ron and give him a boost. Bachmann going on dozens of shows and repeating, emphatically that he is 'dangerous', making up bs stories about her 'tremendous' surge that never happened, as well as Frothy moving up in the polls and taking pot shots at Ron too, pretty much spells it out what they are attempting here. The CNN polls recently had no dems or indys polled in them, this way they could show Romney leading. More bs being picked from his books to show some ridiculous bias against gays, etc.

Then you have the 'undisclosed location' crap, and more 'IA is discredited if he wins' nonsense.

But anyway, yea, there is just NO WAY IN HELL, this DMR poll is going to show anyone other than Romney leading it, especially when you consider they endorsed the damn guy. Whether its by 10% or 1% or 0.5%. There is no way the party would show Ron winning and give one ounce of enthusiasm to undecided voters.

So yea, sorry guys, not trying to burst your bubbles here, but you have to look at this realistically. Put yourself in THEIR shoes. If you are a neo-con establishment fucktard, knowing what is at stake here, are you really going to show Ron Paul leading the last of the major polls, especially one who endorsed Mitt?

It's just not gonna happen.

[rp2012win]

Turnout will determine who wins. The 65+ seniors will vote romney hardcore. They support the establishment candidate and rarely use the internet to find the truth. They watch fox news and members of the establishment in washington to tell them who to vote for. The young voters have actually done research and will support paul in a landslide. It's the future vs. the old establishment voters. Obama neutralized the old vote in 2008 to win big. We'll see what happens.

Oh, and Huckabee only had a .6 lead in the RCP average on Dec. 31 and he beat romney by 10 points. And that was with Huckabee having negative momentum and romney soaring going into the vote. Romney has a .4 lead on Paul right now.

[pauladin]

the final dmr poll before the 2008 caucus was very close to the final result. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

[Student Of Paulism]

the final dmr poll before the 2008 caucus was very close to the final result. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

Des Moines Register 12/27 - 12/30 32 26 13 9 9 5 Huckabee +6
CNN 12/26 - 12/30 28 31 10 13 8 8 Romney +3

Hmm..well that CNN one from last time, i think is quite interesting. Shows Romney up by 3, and he was up by 2 with the CNN poll this time around. So that is definitely a positive, considering how Huckabee showed different in the DMR.

But here is the difference. Huckabee isn't Ron Paul and wasnt pissed on 24-7.

All i know is the campaign better be watching the caucus counts and the party counts like hawks.