NBC/Marist Poll Iowa (Just flashed on Morning Joe): Romney 23%, Paul 21%, Santorum 15% [Archive]

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 04:36 AM

I don't remember exact numbers, just flashed.
Romney is at 23%,
Paul at 21%,
Santorum 15%,
Perry 14%,
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 6%

Romney +4 from last poll I believe they said, Paul +2....don't quote me, but that is what the graphic looked like when I saw it quickly. Not up on the net yet.

Edit: It was Way Too Early with Willie Geist

bluesc

12-30-2011, 04:40 AM

That's what I like to see. The dates it was conducted would be nice.

Sola_Fide

12-30-2011, 04:42 AM

Bachmann has flatlined.

PauliticsPolitics

12-30-2011, 04:44 AM

Sounds about right, still looking for an official source with the methodology and sample size, etc.

coffeewithgames

12-30-2011, 04:45 AM

I just looked also, didn't see the "official" link yet.

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 04:47 AM

Err rather it was on Way Too Early with Willie Geist, that is why they aren't talking about it much of all yet. I'm sure we'll see the numbers again on Morning joe...i'm still looking for it to pop up on msnbc.com or on google...see nothing yet.

Yoddle

12-30-2011, 04:54 AM

Is this poll of registered republicans only? I think CNN did the same thing, not counting Paul's 39% to Romney 12% among Independents voting Republicans and it has Romney at a 2% lead. PPP has Romney at a 2% lead to among registered Republicans too but when they do among all voters, Paul is ahead. MSM is being sneaky, making it look like Paul is losing.

BuddyRey

12-30-2011, 04:55 AM

When did Romney pass us?

AlexAmore

12-30-2011, 04:57 AM

When did Romney pass us?

Ever since they decided to discriminate against fully capable voters who funnily enough will actually be showing up to the caucus. (indys)

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 04:57 AM

Is this poll of registered republicans only? I think CNN did the same thing, not counting Paul's 39% to Romney 12% among Independents voting Republicans and it has Romney at a 2% lead. PPP has Romney at a 2% lead to among registered Republicans too.

This was their methodology on their last poll

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Nov. 27-29 of 2,896 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) 916 Republicans (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points.

So it seems like it was only Republicans....last time at least.

goldpants

12-30-2011, 04:59 AM

Latest poll talking points to be supplied by msm
Santorum appears to be a real contender, Perry the Tebow effect may just be for real, Romney comfortably in first with Name Withheld fading in second

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 05:07 AM

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/30/9822616-nbc-poll-mitt-romney-ron-paul-neck-and-neck-in-iowa-newt-gingrich-in-5th

Here is the post:

Mitt Romney 23%
Ron Paul 21%
Rick Santorum 15%
Rick Perry 14%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Michelle Bachmann 6%

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

affa

12-30-2011, 05:07 AM

I groaned when the media trotted out Michelle Bachman and the people bought it hook, line, and sinker.

I winced when Rick Perry was suddenly the heir apparent before he even tossed his hat in... and the people bought it, hook, line, and sinker.

I was flabbergasted when Hermain Cain sold everyone a slice, and people bought it, hook, line, and sinker.

I lost my patience when Gingrich's past fell into a memory hole, and the media propped him up... and the people bought it, hook, line and sinker.

But Santorum? Really? C'mon now, we've just entered fantasy land. How the hell did the media manage to sell this guy to the people? He's the most divisive politican on the stage.

I mean, yea, I get 'how' they did it. I know the basic steps of media manipulation, be it hyping a new movie or a new candidate. But how many times can they pull this routine without people seeing through it? How schizophrenic is the average GOPer? How many times can you switch allegiance before you see the strings?

Rudeman

12-30-2011, 05:07 AM

The numbers:

Romney 23% +4
Paul 21% +2
Santorum 15% +9
Perry 14% +4
Gingrich 13% -15
Bachmann 6% -1

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 05:09 AM

What's sad is in the poll 41% say that Ron Paul would be an unacceptable nominee, a 15 point increase from last poll....

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 05:10 AM

The numbers:

Romney 23% +4
Paul 21% +1
Santorum 15% +9
Perry 14% +4
Gingrich 13% -15
Bachmann 6% -1

Paul is +2...

PauliticsPolitics

12-30-2011, 05:12 AM

• 23% for Mitt Romney (+4)
• 21% for Ron Paul (+2)
• 15% for Rick Santorum (+9)
• 14% for Rick Perry (+4)
• 13% for Newt Gingrich (-15)
• 6% for Michele Bachmann (-1)
• 2% for Jon Huntsman (No change)
• 7% are undecided (-2)

Press Release:
(http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA111227/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20December%2030,%202011%20Iowa%20NBC%20Ne ws-Marist%20Poll%20Release.pdf)http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA111227/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20December%2030,%202011%20Iowa%20NBC%20Ne ws-Marist%20Poll%20Release.pdf

More:
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Iowapoll111230nbcmarist.pdf

Maybe update the OP so we don't have like 30 threads on this.

pauladin

12-30-2011, 05:13 AM

The Santorum surge is more baffling than any other surge thus far. I am seriously scratching my head. This cannot be real.

Look at his fundraising.
Look at his facebook likes.
Look at his wikipedia page views.
Look at the tiny crowds he gathers (three weeks ago he was talking in front of 6 people at a diner).
How can this guy possibly have 75% of the support Ron Paul has in Iowa???

Rudeman

12-30-2011, 05:15 AM

Paul is +2...

Thanks, fixed it.

orenbus

12-30-2011, 05:16 AM

I kid you not this was a screenshot this morning from Fox and Friends, they are reporting Mittens pulling away from Paul and Gingrich, "Mitt Happens" really? They couldn't have come up with a better phrase?

http://www.ronpaulcountry.com/sites/all/themes/bluemasters/images/shitt_happens.jpg

I added the red letters.

Rudeman

12-30-2011, 05:16 AM

Also said Romney has very soft support.

goldpants

12-30-2011, 05:19 AM

It is hilarious, Santorum represents everything the majority isn't interested in. From his record of voting spending increases, more bureaucracy, a whore to the lobbyist, to being a poor speaker, to being an actual bigot, but mainstream fed zombies fall for it supposedly. There is something happening here and it ain't exactly clear...I still think Ron is winning Iowa and this sideshow stuff is an attempt to alter the results.

Rudeman

12-30-2011, 05:21 AM

All of the panel picked Romney to win Iowa, although 1 of the guys said he could win or finish 4th.

KramerDSP

12-30-2011, 05:21 AM

This proves to me that the MSM coverage is directly correlated with polling.

fatjohn

12-30-2011, 05:23 AM

pauladin

12-30-2011, 05:23 AM

In Iowa, for the past 30 days: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+rick+santorum&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=usa.ia&date=mtd&sort=0

fatjohn

12-30-2011, 05:24 AM

Happy that perry is rising. Good for him. Battle it out with santorum. Too bad there is no bad weather forecasted. I would assume 90% of the santorum voters would have stayed home.

goldpants

12-30-2011, 05:26 AM

In Iowa, for the past 30 days: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+rick+santorum&ctab=0&geo=us&geor=usa.ia&date=mtd&sort=0

Nothing to see here folks...I said move along or I will taze you

HOLLYWOOD

12-30-2011, 05:34 AM

Ever since they decided to discriminate against fully capable voters who funnily enough will actually be showing up to the caucus. (indys)The Big Media Push of Romney @ full throttle. Not a bad word by any of the TV channel propagandists and all promoting America's corporatist

Matthew Zak

12-30-2011, 05:35 AM

As the other candidates fail, Romney will be picking up their supporters. We are a "front runner" in Iowa, but it looks like we're going to get second place there, unless something miraculous happens. Who knows about NH.

I saw this coming weeks ago... and I never disillusioned myself to think Iowa was ever in the bag.

I hope no one is going to get discouraged if we get second.

Student Of Paulism

12-30-2011, 05:39 AM

But Santorum? Really? C'mon now, we've just entered fantasy land. How the hell did the media manage to sell this guy to the people? He's the most divisive politican on the stage.

I mean, yea, I get 'how' they did it. I know the basic steps of media manipulation, be it hyping a new movie or a new candidate. But how many times can they pull this routine without people seeing through it? How schizophrenic is the average GOPer? How many times can you switch allegiance before you see the strings?

Yea, its pretty pathetic. I see the MSM as the smart ones, since they know how easily manipulated most of the average voters are. It really does irritate me to think about it. It's the primary reason why the same garbage keeps getting elected. If people didnt fall for this crap, the media wouldn't be able to accomplish anything.

Honestly, people should be forced to take some kind of exam before being allowed to vote, no different than needing a license to drive and having to take an exam. There are really just too many dumbasses out there who vote and dont even know a single reason why, much less anything about WHO they are voting for. This is what ruins things so much for all the honest politicians out there, and there aint many left.

Anyway, since their lame smears with the newsletter didnt work, now its back ignoring and putting out inflated crap polls and hyping up lower tier candidates who they know cant win (those candidates also know this and probably being told from the top, to go along with it, in exchange for 'whatever') in order to keep Paul from gaining their support if they drop out too early, and to keep Romney at the top.

samsung1

12-30-2011, 05:39 AM

Looks like we could be down by 2500-6000 votes maybe more. Let's do a final iowa phone campaign. Let's not wait until the des moines register poll, it. Will be too late by then!!

randomname

12-30-2011, 05:46 AM

The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 425 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.

hxxp://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/30/9822616-nbc-poll-mitt-romney-ron-paul-neck-and-neck-in-iowa-newt-gingrich-in-5th

Elfshadow

12-30-2011, 05:50 AM

First thing I noticed is that they over polled Landlines in this 73% are landlines. Is Iowa that much diffrent then Florida? Even the old people down here are using Cells and canceling land lines.

samsung1

12-30-2011, 05:52 AM

I'm afraid this. Is what the des moines register poll might look like as well. We gotta get out the vote

JuicyG

12-30-2011, 05:53 AM

First thing I noticed is that they over polled Landlines in this 73% are landlines. Is Iowa that much diffrent then Florida? Even the old people down here are using Cells and canceling land lines.

This is a great point. They`ve probably used landlines because it`s cheaper. Usually older demographic stuck to landlines, younger people use cellphones and don`t have need for landlines.

JuicyG

12-30-2011, 05:55 AM

I'm afraid this. Is what the des moines register poll might look like as well. We gotta get out the vote

Yes, by all means. Even if Ron Paul wins, winning by great margin would help a lot and send a message.

Elfshadow

12-30-2011, 05:59 AM

This is a great point. They`ve probably used landlines because it`s cheaper. Usually older demographic stuck to landlines, younger people use cellphones and don`t have need for landlines.

Don't take to much from that. As longer supporters of Pauls will point out these things tend to be spot on. At this point I tend to believe PPPs more though.

orenbus

12-30-2011, 06:29 AM

Fox News: Fox & Friends Three Different Panelist Just Predicted Paul 1st, Romney 2nd, Sant/Ging 3rd.

Surprisingly they all just agreed with who will win Iowa;

1. Ron Paul
2. Mittens Romney
3. Santorum (one of the panelist said it was going to be a tie between Santorum/Gingrich)

Three seperate political operatives on a panel being interviewed by Ansley (a stand in for their normal Fox and Friends cast)

The_Ruffneck

12-30-2011, 06:35 AM

The numbers:

Romney 23% +4
Paul 21% +2
Santorum 15% +9
Perry 14% +4
Gingrich 13% -15
Bachmann 6% -1
Still rising , stay positive people.

libertythor

12-30-2011, 06:37 AM

Still rising , stay positive people.

Exactly! We aren't tanking. Rather we need to either bring Romney down a notch or go up another few points.

speciallyblend

12-30-2011, 06:39 AM

did you hear the crap the pundits were saying on morning f'in joe? need video

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 06:40 AM

did you hear the crap the pundits were saying on morning f'in joe? need video

Yes. I made a post in the Media Spin section. I'm sick to my stomach. "Dr." Sachs, Capehart and the others are freak shows.

Base_Disclosure

12-30-2011, 06:41 AM

The Santorum thing is odd -- respondent's "commitment" for Santorum at 59%, Ron Paul at 54% -- both at the top, of course.

libertythor

12-30-2011, 06:43 AM

The Santorum thing is odd -- respondent's "commitment" for Santorum at 59%, Ron Paul at 54% -- both at the top, of course.

Most church congregations hand out "voter guides" just before any major election, so this isn't surprising. But, Ron Paul has made significant inroads with the evangelical sector, and there doesn't seem to be a tidal wave for any one candidate this time like there was for Huckabee in 2008.

Base_Disclosure

12-30-2011, 06:45 AM

Morning Joe propaganda B.S. summed up: "Romney will win", "Santorum shooting way up, could win..." "Perry could win"..."Gingrich collapsing"... "Oh, Ron Paul, he has this unacceptable foreign policy... No one wants HIM as the nominee... He's flatlined at FIRST (lol)."

Just this smarmy, elitist chuckling at the thought of Ron Paul even being in this race.

One guy mentioned a Ron Paul supporter who travelled 400 miles to see him and said he wanted to meet him before he died; said there's nobody supporting Romney like that (duh).

ronpaulyourmom

12-30-2011, 06:46 AM

So long as Newt keeps dropping I'm happy. We NEED to dent his national numbers or our chances get very slim after Iowa/NH. Newt cannot be allowed to win SC.

Base_Disclosure

12-30-2011, 06:47 AM

There were a couple of remarks about "good" things happening for Romney, and the host -- forget his name -- he said something like, "Oh, that would be GREAT..." A lot of that. "Oh, that would be GREAT for Romney..."

Just ridiculous. It also amazes me how much attention they'll give to Santorm, as if he's the new "guy" everyone's looking at.

Base_Disclosure

12-30-2011, 06:48 AM

J_White

12-30-2011, 06:49 AM

ok, it was only for Republican voters !!
"among likely Republican caucus-goers including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate"
correct me if i am wrong,
so this is fine as far as Paul is concerned, in the PPP poll also if they only counted GOP voters, the situation would be nearly same between Paul and Romney.

we are very close to a win, but need to work hard right now !!
Call for Paul till your phones drop dead !!

http://i.imgur.com/EG9mQ.jpg

ronpaulyourmom

12-30-2011, 06:55 AM

I think Gingrich is truly finished. It's over for him. I really do. We have to worry about Santorum now... media's jumping all over him and showing up at his "events", like duck hunting with two people.

Santorum is totally dead outside of Iowa and the odds of that changing even with a win is next to nil. The biggest risk of a Santorum surge is to discredit an RP win, (man I sound like the MSM)

goldpants

12-30-2011, 06:57 AM

Latest poll talking points to be supplied by msm
Santorum appears to be a real contender, Perry the Tebow effect may just be for real, Romney comfortably in first with Name Withheld fading in second

Thank you Morning Joe, apparently you read my message before that segment or you shills have the dumbest playbook to decipher ever.

Student Of Paulism

12-30-2011, 06:57 AM

Santorum is totally dead outside of Iowa and the odds of that changing even with a win is next to nil. The biggest risk of a Santorum surge is to discredit an RP win, (man I sound like the MSM)

Lol...

"Be wary of gazing too deeply into the abyss, as it also gazes back"--Nietzsche :D

Agorism

12-30-2011, 07:35 AM

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Iowapoll111230nbcmarist.pdf

Romney 23
Paul 21
Santorum 15
Perry 14
Gingrich 13
Bachmann 6

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/30/9822616-nbc-poll-mitt-romney-ron-paul-neck-and-neck-in-iowa-newt-gingrich-in-5th?chromedomain=usnews

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.
Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.
They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.

PauliticsPolitics

12-30-2011, 07:38 AM

Long Thread on this:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?343694-NBC-Marist-Poll-Iowa-(Just-flashed-on-Morning-Joe)-Romney-23-Paul-21-Santorum-15

jer4liberty

12-30-2011, 07:38 AM

Santorum can possibly have a strong showing in South Carolina, but that's about it...

blazeKing

12-30-2011, 08:01 AM

"Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone."

Aratus

12-30-2011, 09:14 AM

Aratus

12-30-2011, 09:18 AM

Most church congregations hand out "voter guides" just before any major election, so this isn't surprising. But, Ron Paul has made significant inroads with the evangelical sector, and there doesn't seem to be a tidal wave for any one candidate this time like there was for Huckabee in 2008.

this!

IndianaPolitico

12-30-2011, 09:19 AM

Noticed that every single credible poll out in the last week shows that ether Paul is in first, or is in a close second, or tie. We can do this!

Sean

12-30-2011, 09:21 AM

This is where the organization should help Paul. If we indeed have the best ground game we bring out our voters and take first.

No Free Beer

12-30-2011, 09:31 AM

was conducted Dec. 27-28 of 2,905 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 1.8 percentage points) and of 433 likely GOP caucus-goers (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

Also, unlike the recent CNN-Time poll, the likely voter model in the NBC-Marist survey included independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone