South Park Fan
12-29-2011, 09:58 PM
I would put this in the other subforum, but this article indirectly says a lot about what our campaign strategy should be, relevant portions quoted:
An Iowa disappointment: The Romney campaign has done a very good job of managing Iowa expectations — until the last week or so. Romney and his affiliated super PAC — “Restore Our Future” — are spending millions of dollars on TV ads in the state. Romney surrogates are spreading out all over Iowa to make the case for him. And the candidate himself is in the midst of a three-day bus tour to rally support in the Hawkeye State.
Given that level of spending and activity, it’s impossible for the Romney team to argue that Iowa doesn’t matter to their electoral calculus. Iowa may not be a must-win for Romney but he also probably can’t afford to come in behind anyone other than Texas Rep. Ron Paul next Tuesday night. If he does, his currently steady lead in New Hampshire could erode quickly.
And, if Romney does lose to Paul, the margin of that defeat could matter too. A larger than expected gap between the two could well (re)spark the “conservatives just won’t vote for Romney” storyline that is a terrible way for him to spend the week between Iowa and New Hampshire.
South Carolina Stumble:
...
But, if Romney loses Iowa to Paul and claims an expected victory in New Hampshire, there may not be much momentum for him heading to South Carolina. Add to that the fact that Romney has struggled to win over social conservatives — in 2008 and this race — and that evangelicals are a dominant bloc of voters in South Carolina and it’s tough to see how Romney winds up on top.
An Iowa disappointment: The Romney campaign has done a very good job of managing Iowa expectations — until the last week or so. Romney and his affiliated super PAC — “Restore Our Future” — are spending millions of dollars on TV ads in the state. Romney surrogates are spreading out all over Iowa to make the case for him. And the candidate himself is in the midst of a three-day bus tour to rally support in the Hawkeye State.
Given that level of spending and activity, it’s impossible for the Romney team to argue that Iowa doesn’t matter to their electoral calculus. Iowa may not be a must-win for Romney but he also probably can’t afford to come in behind anyone other than Texas Rep. Ron Paul next Tuesday night. If he does, his currently steady lead in New Hampshire could erode quickly.
And, if Romney does lose to Paul, the margin of that defeat could matter too. A larger than expected gap between the two could well (re)spark the “conservatives just won’t vote for Romney” storyline that is a terrible way for him to spend the week between Iowa and New Hampshire.
South Carolina Stumble:
...
But, if Romney loses Iowa to Paul and claims an expected victory in New Hampshire, there may not be much momentum for him heading to South Carolina. Add to that the fact that Romney has struggled to win over social conservatives — in 2008 and this race — and that evangelicals are a dominant bloc of voters in South Carolina and it’s tough to see how Romney winds up on top.