Why does RP have only 4% in New Hampshire?

[dt_]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary

Rasmussen Reports reports ( :p ) that Huckabee is at 10% and Ron is at 4%. We need to pick up the pace folks, the primary is only a couple of months away.. this is the strongest chance Ron has to make a big splash in the contest for the GOP nomination.

[nyrgoal99]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary

Rasmussen Reports reports ( :p ) that Huckabee is at 10% and Ron is at 4%. We need to pick up the pace folks, the primary is only a couple of months away.. this is the strongest chance Ron has to make a big splash in the contest for the GOP nomination.

They never poll real voters. All these polls are meaningless. The fact paul is up from 1 % and he keeps rising is amazing. His support is really deep

[max]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary

Rasmussen Reports reports ( :p ) that Huckabee is at 10% and Ron is at 4%. We need to pick up the pace folks, the primary is only a couple of months away.. this is the strongest chance Ron has to make a big splash in the contest for the GOP nomination.

i really think these polls are full of crap...

ni way hucksterbee is beating us..

i would love to have a look at the script the pollsters use as well as these "likely voters"

[paulitics]

or only 1 month away. I wish we would do a mailout targeting independents. Every little bit helps.

[Give me liberty]

Why do you people trust in the polls?
crap its like trusting the news media networks and the fake polls.


theres is like about 1,000 or 1,063 peps who are phoned for these so called polls which means the media could be using the same people or persons for the same polls every year.


Remember that youtube video?
F_Frank :p

[kenc9]

The reason for the poor Ron Paul polling has been written about by those that study pollers practices.

You see Ron Paul is running a third party type run but he is running officially as a Republican. So when they poll for each party, ones that are most likely to vote as a Dem or a Rep they miss Ron Paul’s support.

With Dr. Paul you have to read other things like web hits and rally turn outs and now money.

My feeling is he will at least do better than Ross Perot and if he wouldn’t have quit once then reentered the race he probably would have won.

[Wyurm]

You guys know what? we should stop saying the polls aren't real or valid. We should start acting like they are valid and work hard enough to try bringing the numbers up as much as possible. I know the numbers are bogus, but trying to bring tilted numbers up will garuntee us victory. See, if we are pretending that we really have to up the numbers 25 to 30 pct., then we will likely end up with 50 to 80 pct. of the real vote. Instead of just getting a win, we would get a massive landslide.

[margomaps]

You guys know what? we should stop saying the polls aren't real or valid. We should start acting like they are valid and work hard enough to try bringing the numbers up as much as possible. I know the numbers are bogus, but trying to bring tilted numbers up will garuntee us victory. See, if we are pretending that we really have to up the numbers 25 to 30 pct., then we will likely end up with 50 to 80 pct. of the real vote. Instead of just getting a win, we would get a massive landslide.

Thank you.

The polls are valid. Are they perfect? No, certainly not. Are they likely leaving out some voters, many of whom might end up voting for Dr. Paul? Yeah, probably. Running around crying about it isn't going to help any.

The money bomb, that helped. Going door-to-door canvassing, that helps. Sending Ron more of your money, that helps.

[RPinSEAZ]

People who run these polls stake their reputation on the validity of their polls. It's their business. These people have already thought of all the reasons you can come up and more to make up for inconsistencies due to landlines, reduction in party base etc. The sooner you people get it through your thick skulls that he's polling 4% because people don't know about him, the better. Now go get off your butts and go hold signs on the street corner. Go talk to real people get off the internet.

[nbhadja]

Thank you.

The polls are valid. Are they perfect? No, certainly not. Are they likely leaving out some voters, many of whom might end up voting for Dr. Paul? Yeah, probably. Running around crying about it isn't going to help any.

The money bomb, that helped. Going door-to-door canvassing, that helps. Sending Ron more of your money, that helps.

Sorry but the polls are full of crap.

[margomaps]

Sorry but the polls are full of crap.

GREAT! Good for you! I'm glad you listened and paid attention to my useful advice. Keep up the good work. :)

[ronpaulyourmom]

People who run these polls stake their reputation on the validity of their polls. It's their business. These people have already thought of all the reasons you can come up and more to make up for inconsistencies due to landlines, reduction in party base etc. The sooner you people get it through your thick skulls that he's polling 4% because people don't know about him, the better. Now go get off your butts and go hold signs on the street corner. Go talk to real people get off the internet.

This doesn't necessarily work with Paul because he defies so many conventions that would otherwise make the polling accurate. The compensations made for accuracy with respect to other candidates inherently create inaccuracies with Ron Paul, in particular as it relates to party affiliation and self-identification.

As a general rule I like to take any poll number and just double it. Even in that case though, we've got a long way to go. :)

[RPinSEAZ]

Sorry but the polls are full of crap.

Saying it is so doesn't make it. These people are professionals, it's big business and they use very well accepted methodologies. Any internet blogger can make up excuses why our candidate isn't polling well, but they don't know the facts.

If I were Hillary I would employ an army of bloggers and direct them at Paulites to keep them all complacent and warm in the false sense of security that Ron Paul was really doing well. You're tricking yourselves into failure. Get off your butts and go do something for the campaign.

[margomaps]

People who run these polls stake their reputation on the validity of their polls. It's their business. These people have already thought of all the reasons you can come up and more to make up for inconsistencies due to landlines, reduction in party base etc. The sooner you people get it through your thick skulls that he's polling 4% because people don't know about him, the better. Now go get off your butts and go hold signs on the street corner. Go talk to real people get off the internet.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

I have been repeating this message around here constantly. I call what I'm saying "signal." Unfortunately the SNR has been about 1:100.

I'm so glad to see someone else who gets it. Except, I don't think holding signs is a particularly effective strategy at this point. :) Door-to-door canvassing -- that's good stuff. Letters to the editor, that's useful too.

[Roxi]

i agree the polls are crap, but we need to step it up big time in these key states. thats why im heading to new hampshire on wednesday til the primaries are over..

CANVASSING = VOTES !!!!!

[I Am Weasel]

They never poll real voters. All these polls are meaningless. The fact paul is up from 1 % and he keeps rising is amazing. His support is really deep

Wow, he went up 1%.... COME ON! How can we win with support so deep that it gets us up 1% in the polls? We need more than that! I'm sorry, but with attitudes like this, I think we're doomed. We need to get out there and win some SERIOUS support! Time is short.. very VERY short!

[paulitics]

i agree the polls are crap, but we need to step it up big time in these key states. thats why im heading to new hampshire on wednesday til the primaries are over..

CANVASSING = VOTES !!!!!

wow, thats great. :cool:

[RPinSEAZ]

This doesn't necessarily work with Paul because he defies so many conventions that would otherwise make the polling accurate. The compensations made for accuracy with respect to other candidates inherently create inaccuracies with Ron Paul, in particular as it relates to party affiliation and self-identification.

As a general rule I like to take any poll number and just double it. Even in that case though, we've got a long way to go. :)


Anything you've thought of they've taken into account. There's nothing new or unique in this election that we haven't seen in nearly every other one. Go talk to people about why you think Ron Paul should be the next president.

[LibertyOfOne]

The polls are the real deal. If X makes up shit on a poll y will show that x is wrong. There is too much competition in polling for something to be rigged. This is no time to be resting on our duffs and think that everything is fine.

[Nash]

The polls are the real deal. If X makes up shit on a poll y will show that x is wrong. There is too much competition in polling for something to be rigged. This is no time to be resting on our duffs and think that everything is fine.

I think it's pretty clear at this point that they aren't telling the ENTIRE story but rather are telling part of it. That doesn't make them worthless or invalid that simply means they understate his support for whatever reason.

Buchanan was polling around 15% in New Hampshire before he won the state in 1996. He ended up with almost 30% of the vote. Clearly the polls weren't accurate.

That being said do have some idea what Paul is polling at based on the polls and we can safely say he's getting at LEAST 4% of the vote in the state. But really we don't know any more than that. We CANNOT assume that he is somehow leading. We have NO evidence of that.

Since 4% isn't enough to win and we have no idea what the real number is it seems to me we should do everything we can to campaign as hard as possible to assure victory. Either way nobody can say with any assurance that we are definitely winning so our only response can be to work as hard as we can.

[LibertyEagle]

People, regardless of what you think of the polls, very few people yet know about Ron Paul. It's a fact. Face it. Then go do something about it!

If you doubt what I'm saying, go to a shopping center or something, tomorrow, and ask the first 20 people you run into, if they know who Ron Paul is. Then, you will have your answer.

[I Am Weasel]

well, no matter what, we can't keep this endless stupid game up of twisting the poll figures around to work in our favor. Heck, we could take a poll in which he wasn't registering at all and say it was all because he was deleted. We could take a poll where he was listed and say they only polled "luckly" finding the people who wanted Guilliani.. but the fact of the matter is, he's behind, and we need to do something about it!

[Energy]

We need to campaign hard and wide to ensure a huge primary win such that it debunks and brings into question every poll out there.

[fj45lvr]

I think people underestimate the draw of HUCK's "pandering"..

the "in Jesus name" crap that he is dishing out is being devoured by many churches..

Dr. Paul in contrast is following Jesus' own admonition to not "pray out in the open"....

It's too bad people can't see through the PHONY and realize the difference between a humble man doing and living the right and a self-promoter using Christianity as a "tool" which I most certainly believe is WRONG. There is a tendency for these people to only drink milk from Christian cows....to the point of nausea.

Huckabee is the equivalent of the traveling SNAKE-OIL salesmen with tophat and circus wagon.

[goRPaul]

F--k you, Frank!

[PINN4CL3]

Both sides are right here. Campaign like we are in last, and that the very heart of this country relies on his election (which it does).

However, for those who think these polls are infallible. I started a thread on this topic not long ago.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=32927

In it there's a link to an article, that explains just how inaccurate Primary polling can be, written by a 25 year veteran pollster. In General Elections yes, political scientists claim they can predict an outcome 2 months in advance, but that's also a general. You need ask only this guy or that guy, and take a large enough sample, and the outcomes should be clear. In primaries they limit polling to those super voters who voted in prior primary elections. Hard core Bushies.

Anyway, here's that article:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/are_primary_polls_meaningful.php

[LibertyOfOne]

I think it's pretty clear at this point that they aren't telling the ENTIRE story but rather are telling part of it. That doesn't make them worthless or invalid that simply means they understate his support for whatever reason.

Buchanan was polling around 15% in New Hampshire before he won the state in 1996. He ended up with almost 30% of the vote. Clearly the polls weren't accurate.

That being said do have some idea what Paul is polling at based on the polls and we can safely say he's getting at LEAST 4% of the vote in the state. But really we don't know any more than that. We CANNOT assume that he is somehow leading. We have NO evidence of that.

Since 4% isn't enough to win and we have no idea what the real number is it seems to me we should do everything we can to campaign as hard as possible to assure victory. Either way nobody can say with any assurance that we are definitely winning so our only response can be to work as hard as we can.

All the polls say are that out of x amount of people polled y amount supported candidate z. No one makes the claim that they can predict a primary. They can only be used as an indicator. Paul is not at 15% now is not the time to pretend that everything will just go smoothly.