Momentum from Iowa NH - How much is needed?

[dcjones]

Lets get real. Iowa and NH is not about the Delegates, its only about perception and momentum. What scenarios are good and bad?

I don't like that Santorum is rising because he will take all the news away from a Paul win in Iowa. What is the best scenario here?

[ross11988]

As much as YOU can do! Call NH NOW. PHONE FROM HOME!

[InTradePro]

Become the anti-Romney candidate.
So a win in Iowa(ideal) or second to Romney is great. All the others(expect Romney) will fragment after that. The win in Iowa would having latesting positive effect over the 'media'.

For NH coming ahead of Newt is good enough, then head into South Carolina with a imploded Gingrich, ideally Romney vs Paul situation.

[South Park Fan]

The current media narrative is that Iowa is a tossup between Romney and Paul. Thus, to get any momentum out of Iowa, we would need to win by >5 points so that our performance can be attributed to more than just statistical error. Ideally Santorum would finish second since that would knock Romney into third and leave him especially vulnerable in New Hampshire, since Santorum is insignificant in New Hampshire.

In New Hampshire, Romney is expected to in by 15-20 points. Winning significantly in Iowa would be enough to close that gap by 5-10 points. Romney winning by <10 points would be a disappointment for him; Romney winning by <5 points would give us significantly more momentum heading into South Carolina, where Santorum would be stronger.

[Peace&Freedom]

It's great for Santorum to come up, because it means Perry may not even make it into the top 4 in IA. This is important for keeping Perry deflated, because unlike Santorum, he has the money to stay in the race into the spring. A fifth or worse showing behind Paul, Romney, Gingrich and Santorum will hurt his ability to become the 'comeback kid.' If he could hurt Mitt as well by being a surprise second, that would be icing on the cake.

[RonPaul101.com]

I think if Santorum comes in 2nd it takes away from the contest. I would love a Paul, Romney, Santorum, Bachmann, Gingrich finishing order.

[BUSHLIED]

Ron needs to grab 30-33% of the vote in Iowa to have momentum. Anything less is going to be considered "neutral" considering the current anti-paul media environment. If Ron wins with just 25% of vote, you can be sure that Romney will be just marginally behind Paul. The narrative will be Romney with a close second to Ron Paul with no campaign organization and the least amount of time spent in Iowa etc...going to win big in NH...that'll be the story. The same old Iowa is doesn't matter, Ron will not go on to win anything else blah blah will persist.

Just put on CNN and they are saying that Romney is the front runner according to their poll...yuck. Now they are pumping santorum up

[Rincewind]

Romney really does have a big lead in N.H.

Unless he completely bombs in Iowa on Tuesday, I think the goal should be to get second place, and within 10 percentage points of Romney, in N.H.

[TulsaRevolution]

I think donation momentum is the most important thing. Only 15% of the needed delegates will be awarded by the end of MARCH. The campaign needs CASH to step up campaigning in every upcoming state just as saturated as Iowa is.

[dcjones]

If it is a 2 man race between Mitt and Paul too early, I think Mitt runs away from it. I think the US needs time to wake up to Paul's message. So many non political people will only see him for the MSM headlines, i.e. racist, extreme, crazy uncle (lol). If all other candidates drop but Mitt and Paul, I see most of the support going (although grudgingly) to Mitt.

Its at narrow gap to thread, but if Gingrich, Santorum stay relevent and split the NeoCon vote, it may benefit Paul??

[dcjones]

I think donation momentum is the most important thing. Only 15% of the needed delegates will be awarded by the end of MARCH. The campaign needs CASH to step up campaigning in every upcoming state just as saturated as Iowa is.

Yea I donated $50 this morning. But the Money Bomb has really slowed down. Is everybody tapped out?

[Keith and stuff]

The Union Leader has a new poll up. Here are the current results.

Will the outcome of the Iowa caucuses have any affect on your vote?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Total Votes: 1332

[muh_roads]

Romney really does have a big lead in N.H.

Unless he completely bombs in Iowa on Tuesday, I think the goal should be to get second place, and within 10 percentage points of Romney, in N.H.

Just so everyone is clear on this...if 2nd place is the best we can hope for, then the campaign let it happen. The lack of a Romney Serial Hypocrisy version still not running in NH absolutely infuriates me.

[dcjones]

The Union Leader has a new poll up. Here are the current results.

Will the outcome of the Iowa caucuses have any affect on your vote?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Total Votes: 1332

Unfortunate

[dcjones]

Just so everyone is clear on this...if 2nd place is the best we can hope for, then the campaign let it happen. The lack of a Romney Serial Hypocrisy version still not running in NH absolutely infuriates me.

What!!!?? They are not running that in NH? They should. Does anybody from the campaign post here? We definately need MItt attack ads in NH now and that one would be really good to run with.

It was effective to bring down newt in Iowa, we should do it in NH.

[ConsideringRonPaul]

The Union Leader has a new poll up. Here are the current results.

Will the outcome of the Iowa caucuses have any affect on your vote?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Total Votes: 1332

Its false though because the media controls the American sheep. They're narrative will definitely affect how millions vote. People just don't like to admit it, because "every state matters." Furthermore, with candidates possibly dropping out after iowa, that would definitely affect the people who were supporting those candidates.

[ConsideringRonPaul]

What!!!?? They are not running that in NH? They should. Does anybody from the campaign post here? We definately need MItt attack ads in NH now and that one would be really good to run with.

It was effective to bring down newt in Iowa, we should do it in NH.

Agreed. I know everyone here wants it to become Mitt v Paul, but that will do us no good if Mitt wins. A Paul win in NH may be the only way he could realistically become the nominee. It would take the winds out of Mitt's sails. A mitt win just keeps him chugging along, will catapult him to close loss in SC and win(s) in Florida (and Nevada). And Mitt is the very worst Rep candidate (besides Huntsman) imo so I really need Ron to come through.

[muh_roads]

What!!!?? They are not running that in NH? They should. Does anybody from the campaign post here? We definately need MItt attack ads in NH now and that one would be really good to run with.

It was effective to bring down newt in Iowa, we should do it in NH.

Yep, sucks doesn't it? This is looking like Iowa is where it will stop. NH votes in just 7 days after Iowa.

There must be a game plan in the works that we're not aware of. Because not trying as hard to take NH as they did Iowa makes no sense to me what-so-ever. 7 days is not enough time to close that huge gap between Romney and Paul out east there.

[ItsTime]

We are ready in New Hampshire. Win Iowa, we will take it from there! The ground work is being done.

[ConsideringRonPaul]

We are ready in New Hampshire. Win Iowa, we will take it from there! The ground work is being done.

I mean I want to believe this but I just can't see anything tangible right now. I just wish there were some kind of attack ad toward Mitt or something to cut into his support. And I know Iowa will bring momentum but I just don't think it'll be enough by itself, especially with the media narrative that "Iowa doesn't matter".

[nyrgoal99]

They may not want to pound Romney until the last week

[ItsTime]

I mean I want to believe this but I just can't see anything tangible right now. I just wish there were some kind of attack ad toward Mitt or something to cut into his support. And I know Iowa will bring momentum but I just don't think it'll be enough by itself, especially with the media narrative that "Iowa doesn't matter".

Im not promising a victory, I am saying we are doing everything possible to make it happen.

[muh_roads]

The new ad is so terrible and generic. It mentions Romney as a flip-flopper for half a second. But everyone is already aware of that narrative and it obviously isn't enough. A nice 30-60 second treatment of the flips attacking Romney exclusively in the same manner as was used on Newt would've been so awesome.

They should've started airing such an ad 2 weeks ago in NH.

[ConsideringRonPaul]

They need to create something like newt serial hypocrisy for romney and air it immediately. There really is no more time to waste

[nyrgoal99]

I mean I want to believe this but I just can't see anything tangible right now. I just wish there were some kind of attack ad toward Mitt or something to cut into his support. And I know Iowa will bring momentum but I just don't think it'll be enough by itself, especially with the media narrative that "Iowa doesn't matter".


Put it this way, in doing phone from home, our support is way higher in NH than Iowa. Take that to the bank

[dcjones]

We are ready in New Hampshire. Win Iowa, we will take it from there! The ground work is being done.

If Ron Pauls starts moving up in NH it will help him in Iowa. These state races are not isolated. If Paul's numbers move up in NH (before the Iowa caucuses) it will help him win in Iowa because people will take him more seriously in Iowa if he looks like he could pull thru as the actual candidate. I hope the campaign is not saying "well after Iowa, we go to NH" No... they need to work both together.

We need attack ads in NH now!

[hueylong]

Anyone who thinks Iowa and New Hampshire are only about momentum and not about delegates has no understanding of the process.

The campaign is making sound strategic and tactical decisions. None of these people calling for "attack ads in NH now" has ever run a political campaign.

Kindly let Dr. Paul and the people he has hired do their jobs.

[dcjones]

Anyone who thinks Iowa and New Hampshire are only about momentum and not about delegates has no understanding of the process.

The campaign is making sound strategic and tactical decisions. None of these people calling for "attack ads in NH now" has ever run a political campaign.

Kindly let Dr. Paul and the people he has hired do their jobs.

With 12 delegates proportionally allocated? It may be a difference of (2) delegates between the 1st and 2nd place winners. Are you saying that 2 delegates are worth more than the momentum caused by winning NH? I find that hard to believe by any logical standard.