ARG Iowa GOP December 29, 2011

[Agorism]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

ARG Iowa

Romney: 22%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 16%
Santorum: 11%
Perry: 9%
Bachmann: 8%
Huntsman: 6%
Roemer: 1%

[blazeKing]

/facepalm

these numbers are all over the place

[bluesc]

What the hell is going on with all of the polls recently? Some have Santorum surging, some have Newt climbing, some have Ron falling, some have Ron holding steady. This one is horrible.

The polls are all over the place and I'm waiting for the DMR one.

[pauliticalfan]

...

[truthdivides]

RCP doesn't think ARG is legit. I don't see why we should either.

[jacmicwag]

Well, we've taken a big hit but if this is as bad as it gets we still may win.

[braane]

ARG hasn't ever been taken seriously by RCP. You can't really tell with these polls. Just wait until Saturday at 7PM. That is the poll to look at it. It will tell the story.

[Indiana4Paul]

RCP doesn't think ARG is legit. I don't see why we should either.

ARG had Clinton +9 over Obama in their final poll from 2008.

[asurfaholic]

We'll know for sure on tues....i guess

[LeJimster]

Ugh, I hope we aren't dropping off at the moment of truth. It'd be very sad if Iowans are scared away because of the lies and propaganda the MSM have been spreading.

[DRV45N05]

PPP has a great reputation. I'd say it's pretty accurate.
PPP has a great reputation. The CNN poll among only registered Republicans basically validated the PPP poll.

Rasmussen's methodology has come into question. Insider Advantage has been all over the map. Both the Insider Advantage poll and the ARG poll have Ron at far lower numbers with GOP voters than PPP, CNN, and now Rasmussen have him at.

You can tell who the campaigns view the front-runner as being by how they're attacking Ron Paul. They clearly see him as they front-runner. Their internals are probably showing that.

[opinionatedfool]

That's among republican primary goers. Independents aren't included in those numbers. Ron Paul still leads with Independents.

"Among no party voters (independents), Paul leads with 30%, followed by Romney at 19%, Gingrich at 12%, and Rick Perry at 11%." Add some democrats in there and we should be back up to the PPP numbers.

[opinionatedfool]

I don't mind if some of the polls are showing us a little behind if it's based on the way the polls were conducted. Maybe some of the pressure won't be focused on Ron Paul and will be on someone else. These republican only polls may be good for us.

[opinionatedfool]

I don't mind if some of the polls are showing us a little behind if it's based on the way the polls were conducted. Maybe some of the pressure won't be focused on Ron Paul and will be on someone else. These republican only polls may be good for us.

Maybe I'm wrong, it says "Likely republican caucus goers." I thought that meant they were republican, but maybe not.

[FSP-Rebel]

I wonder if some of these polls are deliberately skewed by not polling indies and such because they might be scared that Ron could win by a large margin. If they can show our support lagging they might be able to hedge off any extra %s we could pull in at the last minute. Pure speculation on my part.

[sailingaway]

Wow. We have to get that RevPak ad out, and get Ron's response out. People will be harder to win back but this smear is just FALSE.

[Canderson]

If we lose this... UGHHHHH

[hazek]

This might be the effect of a week long nuclear strike by the corporate media propaganda machine smearing Ron 24/7.

[Emerick]

Those polls are all inconsistent with each other. Even if you take the methodology of questioning only registered Republicans. In one poll, Gingrich is in second, in the other he tied in fifth with Perry. In the other, Santorum is climbing well. In the other, he's at 11% etc.

I don't believe these polls say much. And, maybe, they are good for us, because Ron's supporters will go vote anyway, while other candidate's supporters (who maybe are strong anti-Paul) will relax and take for granted that Ron is losing.

The thing I think may really be hurting Ron is foreign policy. ALL other candidates are using the fear strategy. We know they are all in the pocket of the military industrial complex. They are all the same, all establishment. But Ron should have a better strategy handling this. Maybe an ad on War Propaganda, showing how they lied to go for war in Iraq, then show how, in 2007 debates, they were discussing how Iran was in the verge of getting a nuke. And they show them doing EXACTLY the same thing now. Expose their lies. Show how they are all willing to go to another war (and, of course, show O'Reilly telling Romney that it would mean WW3). And ask the public: "do you really think it was worth getting thousands of Americans killed, tens of thousands wounded, to expand our debt and break our economy, to lose our liberties at home, all because of lies and profiteering?"

[Badger Paul]

It's very difficult to try an poll a caucus because all depends on turnout. And I think that's why polling is all over the map because are trying to factor in turnout. PPP is factoring there will be more college and new voters at the polls, other polls are factoring in more normal Republican voting.

Bottom line is, you need to get your people to the polls. It's that simple.