Nate Silver Article: New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul’s Support

[pauliticalfan]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/new-iowa-poll-may-understate-pauls-support/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

A fantastic summary of everything we knew was wrong with the CNN poll.

[Agorism]

Notice how he said Romney's lead in NH was healthy though...

NH is a problem.

[Indiana4Paul]

Notice how he said Romney's lead in NH was healthy though...

NH is a problem.

Agreed, but there are two points here:
1. Romney's expectations are sky high in NH. If Paul can beat expectations there, particularly if he is coming off a win in IA, he could see a big media bounce as a result
2. Romney is likely to face a barrage of attacks on him after IA when Huntsman tries to make a last ditch push to win NH and Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum make a last ditch effort to make a mark on the race in South Carolina.

[Agorism]

bump

[Original_Intent]

Agreed, but there are two points here:
1. Romney's expectations are sky high in NH. If Paul can beat expectations there, particularly if he is coming off a win in IA, he could see a big media bounce as a result
2. Romney is likely to face a barrage of attacks on him after IA when Huntsman tries to make a last ditch push to win NH and Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum make a last ditch effort to make a mark on the race in South Carolina.

Lol. Did you actually say "Paul" and "media bounce" in the same sentence? Paul could discover a limitless source of cheap, clean energy, bring peace on earth, and the news headlines would be on the weather.

[sailingaway]

sorry, I didn't see this and posted it again. I see Nate pushed Ron's chances of taking Iowa above 50% again late yesterday.

[seapilot]

Notice how he said Romney's lead in NH was healthy though...

NH is a problem.

Mitt Romney's lead might make him complacent enough that he ignores it and puts more resources in Florida. You always naturally work harder when you are behind. Hopefully the campaign is on the ball for GOTV(get out the vote).

[sailingaway]

Mitt Romney's lead might make him complacent enough that he ignores it and puts more resources in Florida. You always naturally work harder when you are behind. Hopefully the campaign is on the ball for GOTV(get out the vote).

But Huntsman is helping Romney out, with the pac his Daddy is funding attacking Ron.

[Rincewind]

Paul doesn't have to win in N.H. if he wins in Iowa, he just has to look come out of it looking good. IMO if Paul can get within 10 points of Romney in NH and finish second, that would be a good thing.

[InTradePro]

Thank you Nate