Who drops out after Iowa?

[CTRattlesnake]

Barring any last minute surges, I think Bachmann and Santorum could both potentially end their campaigns after Iowa. Perry has too much money to suspend operations after the first primary, so I expect him to continue on, even after a poor showing.

Thoughts?

[robertwerden]

Bachmann, then she endorses Ron
Huntsman who endorses Ron
Santorum who endorses Mitt
Buddy who endorses Ron
Perry who lasts till super tuesday then endorses Mitt
Gingrich after April who endorses Mitt

[tbone717]

No one. We won't see suspensions until after NH. They are only a week away and there is no reason a campaign would need to drop prior to NH. Ad buys are already done, expenditures are pretty much already spent.

[matt0611]

Bachmann, then she endorses Ron
Huntsman who endorses Ron
Santorum who endorses Mitt
Buddy who endorses Ron
Perry who lasts till super tuesday then endorses Mitt
Gingrich after April who endorses Mitt

Never gonna happen.

[tbone717]

Bachmann, then she endorses Ron
Huntsman who endorses Ron
Santorum who endorses Mitt
Buddy who endorses Ron
Perry who lasts till super tuesday then endorses Mitt
Gingrich after April who endorses Mitt

From what he said yesterday, I think we need to ask Newt if he will endorse Obama when Paul gets the nomination.

[Blue]

Santorum said he will drop out only if he finishes dead last in Iowa and it looks like he might perform well there, possibly taking third over the fading Gingrich. Perry has the money to go until the end if he wanted. Huntsman is going real strong in New Hampshire, so he probably won't drop out until after then. Bachmann is the only one I see bowing out after Iowa if she finishes behind Perry and Santorum.

[ShaneEnochs]

Bachmann, then she endorses Ron
Huntsman who endorses Ron
Santorum who endorses Mitt
Buddy who endorses Ron
Perry who lasts till super tuesday then endorses Mitt
Gingrich after April who endorses Mitt

Bachmann will never endorse Ron. Bridges were burned in the last debate.

[DRV45N05]

Newt will stay in until at least South Carolina, no matter what happens in Iowa. He's got a good cushion in polls there- at least until the new round of polls comes out, and his national numbers are still strong.

Santorum is on the record saying he'll drop out if he finishes last (presumably among the ones who are competing for Iowa). I think he, Perry, and Bachmann will drop out if any of them don't get 3rd. Santorum and Bachmann don't have the resources to go beyond Iowa if they don't get a top-3 finish. Perry basically has no future, period, if he doesn't get a top-3 finish.

Huntsman drops out if he doesn't get a top-3 in New Hampshire.

There will be 3-4 candidates left after New Hampshire. Romney, RP, Gingrich, and maybe one of Santorum, Perry, or Bachmann.

[Shane Harris]

I feel like there is some animosity between Perry and Mitt. And considering the praise Perry gave Ron in the one debate, I could see Perry endorsing his fellow Texan and Federal Reserve inspiration over Mitt

[RonPaul101.com]

Bachmann will never endorse Ron. Bridges were burned in the last debate.

I think Bachmann should fear us the most though, and thereby endorse Paul to protect her congressional seat. If things don't go our way, and our guy retires, we'll have a lot of energy/money/focus to push behind who ever opposes her in the 6th district in MN...

I think the only possible drop outs are: Bachmann or Santorum (I don't care what Buddy does or doesn't do.) If either Bachmann or Santorum takes third, since I believe Newt will actually fall to 4th, then the other will drop out.

Huntsman will drop out after NH; Perry and Gingrich will hang til SC and the loser there drops out then.

[Darthbrooklyn]

The only person in the pack that might remotely think about endorsing Ron is Huntsman, maybe even Perry

[parocks]

Last time, Duncan Hunter was the first to drop out, after 6 primaries/caucuses. He came in last in almost all of them. Usually, he got about 1% of the vote. He dropped out after Nevada / South Carolina. January 19.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

Based solely on that, I don't think there will be a race to drop out quickly right after Iowa.

[ShaneEnochs]

I think Bachmann should fear us the most though, and thereby endorse Paul to protect her congressional seat. If things don't go our way, and our guy retires, we'll have a lot of energy/money/focus to push behind who ever opposes her in the 6th district in MN...

I really doubt any of us are going to help her get reelected after the trash talk she's thrown at Ron. If she was in a better position to endorse (say around 12+% in the polls), that might be a different story. But as it is, I'll probably actively campaign against her.

[DRV45N05]

Huntsman will definitely endorse Romney. Much closer to his worldview.

No chance Perry endorses Paul. Perry is an establishment player. Can't see him taking a step out to support Paul. He may not like Romney personally (and may even like Paul personally), but he's an establishment player and will act accordingly.

Bachmann cares too much about her political future and gaining power to endorse Ron. That's why she has flipped from being cordial to Ron Paul as long as she's been in Congress to being completely nasty and vitriolic toward him in the last month or so- because she thinks it will gain her votes. She'll gain more by just STFU than by endorsing Paul.

Santorum won't endorse Paul for his foreign policy views. He's also an establishment player. He'll bite the bullet and back Romney.

[Hook]

We want to have as few people drop out as possible. They dillute the neocon vote between themselves, so that Ron can rise above the average of the others. If people start dropping out, the majority of the remaining votes will stay within the neocon candidates and allow them to go above ron.

[Jeremy]

Huntsman who endorses Ron
Why would someone who is putting all of their effort into NH and virtually ignoring Iowa drop out after Iowa?....................

[TheTexan]

Bachmann is vile & vicious when it comes to Ron. An endorsement from her is never going to happen. I do think it's possible, though unlikely, that Perry could endorse RP

[No Free Beer]

no one

[Paul4Prez]

Bachmann, then she endorses Ron
Huntsman who endorses Ron
Santorum who endorses Mitt
Buddy who endorses Ron
Perry who lasts till super tuesday then endorses Mitt
Gingrich after April who endorses Mitt

Everyone who drops out is going to endorse Romney. After Ron Paul places in the top two in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Establishment will circle the wagons. Newt will hang in to see if he can win South Carolina and Florida (hoping Iowa and NH aren't a death blow to his chances), and Perry may hang around until Romney gives him the VP nod before dropping out.

[CTRattlesnake]

Everyone who drops out is going to endorse Romney. After Ron Paul places in the top two in Iowa and New Hampshire, the Establishment will circle the wagons. Newt will hang in to see if he can win South Carolina and Florida (hoping Iowa and NH aren't a death blow to his chances), and Perry may hang around until Romney gives him the VP nod before dropping out.



Cant see Perry being the VP if Romney wins. It just seems like theres too much dislike between the two. Of all the candidates, I think perry has the best chance of endorsing Ron. I dont expect anyone will, but Perry could surprise us.

[undergroundrr]

Not necessarily for strategic reasons - looking forward to Rick Perry dropping so I can type "RP" again without fear of confusion.

[Nathan Hale]

The only person likely to drop out after Iowa is Santorum. He's already alluded to dropping out if he doesn't do well, but even if he meets his own bar (i.e. not last place), he's going to drop out because he doesn't qualify for the St Anselm NH debate, and he'd probably like to avoid the embarrassment of being excluded for polling poorly.

[Number19]

I feel like there is some animosity between Perry and Mitt. And considering the praise Perry gave Ron in the one debate, I could see Perry endorsing his fellow Texan and Federal Reserve inspiration over MittYou've hit this nail on the head. But the big question mark, and I've read nothing on this, is to consider what Perry's future political aspirations are. If he endorses RP, he will be politically dead, nationally. Having been governor, there's nothing left in Texas, unless he decides to run for the Senate, which is unlikely because he would be going against a Republican incumbent. He might accept the vice-presidency, which would guarantee Texas to Romney. But he and Romney truly are not friends. What it comes down to is that for him to support RP is not out of the realm of possibility.

[tbone717]

Cant see Perry being the VP if Romney wins. It just seems like theres too much dislike between the two. Of all the candidates, I think perry has the best chance of endorsing Ron. I dont expect anyone will, but Perry could surprise us.

Prediction: Mitt Romney will endorse Paul when he becomes the last candidate to drop out of the race on April 25. He will do so for the good of the party and to avoid the possibility of a brokered convention.

[Bruno]

My prediction: No one. They will just not spend too much money or effort in NH, as it is only a week away, they will stay in for ego and face-saving until then.

Disclaimer : I generally have no idea what I'm talking about. :D

[Nathan Hale]

If he endorses RP, he will be politically dead, nationally. Having been governor, there's nothing left in Texas, unless he decides to run for the Senate, which is unlikely because he would be going against a Republican incumbent.

Kay bailey Hutchinson is retiring, so it's an open seat. If he doesn't show signs of life it might be worth dropping just to get into that race. And who better to endorse in that case than a fellow Texan????

[xFiFtyOnE]

If ANYONE drops after Iowa it will be Bachmann and/or Santorum.

[cdw]

I may be totally wrong with what I'm about to say, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

Frothy will drop out after NH due to lack of money and he'll endorse Perry. Huntsman will get disillusioned with a 3rd place finish in NH but reality will hit him after he loses S.C. badly and he'll drop out and endorse Romney.

Bachmann's base will continue to decrease and move to the other conservative options (mostly Paul, some Perry). She will last until Nevada only due to funds and after getting trumped there she will drop out and, like Frothy, will endorse Perry (which will be the Machine's last attempt to get Perry's campaign off of life support).

Gingrich's campaign is over and he knows it, Florida and Nevada's results will seal it but he'll stay until Maine, hoping against hope that his debate performances will rekindle any chance he has to make it till Super Tuesday. Maine's rejection of him will signal through that thick skull of his what NH started - that he has zero shot at getting any North East support. He'll drop out and endorse Romney since Perry's debate performances will continue hinder him.

After a single digit result for him in Nevada, the Machine will know that there is no hope of a revival for Perry's campaign but he'll be asked to stay in the race till Super Tuesday since they'll hope that he'll take some conservative support away from Paul. Rules will be bent to allow him onto state ballots he didn't qualify for. After Super Tuesday he'll drop out, endorse Romney and go back to Texas.

After losing Nevada to Paul, Romney and the Machine will be beyond panicking. When Perry quits after Super Tuesday, with only Romney and Paul left someone new will throw their hat in the race and get a massive Herman-Cain-like push by the media. Could be another so-called conservative, or it could be someone that runs third party. Either way their sole reason for being there is to attack and take support from Dr. Paul, but by then it will be too late.

[Number19]

Kay bailey Hutchinson is retiring, so it's an open seat. If he doesn't show signs of life it might be worth dropping just to get into that race. And who better to endorse in that case than a fellow Texan????You are correct; filing deadline has moved to early February - the 1st, I think, with the court ordered delays. If he withdraws by then, he could file to run for the open senate seat. I was thinking he'd hold on at least through the Texas primary, but if he wants to stay in politics, his best avenue would be to withdraw from the presidential race, early, and go for the Senate. He would probably win.

[Nathan Hale]

You are correct; filing deadline has moved to early February - the 1st, I think, with the court ordered delays. If he withdraws by then, he could file to run for the open senate seat. I was thinking he'd hold on at least through the Texas primary, but if he wants to stay in politics, his best avenue would be to withdraw from the presidential race, early, and go for the Senate. He would probably win.

Let's hope so. You're running in Ron Paul's district - you should talk Perry up for the Senate. Might be a good ally in your bid for Congress.

[muzzled dogg]

No one

But not everyone will be invited to the nh debates

[Number19]

My previous post may be in error. Senate races are not effected by the redistricting squabble and goggling, I think the filing deadline for the Senate is January 1st, found at this website : http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=507737.

[Bern]

I feel like there is some animosity between Perry and Mitt. And considering the praise Perry gave Ron in the one debate, I could see Perry endorsing his fellow Texan and Federal Reserve inspiration over Mitt

The sparring between Perry and Mitt is not personal. They are two whores fighting over the same trick. Make no mistake though that they are owned by the same pimp and respect each other for being part fo the same club.

Perry has no love for Ron Paul and the only reason he made overtures to being nice is because Paul is gaining political capital and he understands the need to curry favor with Ron's supporters. Perry is a professional actor (ie. politician) and an accomplished liar. If you take anything he says at face value, you are a fool.

[Nathan Hale]

No one

But not everyone will be invited to the nh debates

I dunno about that. I think Santorum is vain enough to bail if he learns that he's not going to get an invite.

[muzzled dogg]

it's only a week after so it's not like he'd have anything to lose

[LatinsforPaul]

No one is dropping which is a win for Ron Paul.

The more the Neocon vote is divided the better it is for Dr. Paul.

[Nathan Hale]

Well, since CNN shows a Santorum surge in IA, he might actually finish in the top three. As such he'll qualify for the St Anselm GOP debate and thus not drop.

[muzzled dogg]

^nathan where have you read those debate eligibility requirements?

[Steve-in-NY]

Santorum wont drop yet, he hasnt gotten the establishment produced surge yet.
He wont last long on that wave, because then Huntsman is going to steal some thunder from him after NH.
It comes down to Mitt and Paul.
Perry will stick around for a bit too I think.
</prediction>

[A_Silent_Majority_Member]

Iowa=Bachman drops
NH=Huntsman & Santorum drop
SC=Gingrich drops

The field now is..

Romney vs Paul vs Perry

:( great... and now Perry becomes both the "anti-Romney" AND "Paul alternative" to the MSM zombies and from here on out the Bilderberg candidate marches into the nomination with VP Romney to solidify the electorate... but wait.. isnt Perry "Texas toast"? Well you have to remember that all his mishaps were early on and he played them off joking on himself which bodes well later for him to pose or be propped up as "anti-establishment"... Also... ever heard of hustling & playin possum???

[ross11988]

No one

But not everyone will be invited to the nh debates


I think they'll still be invited

[69360]

Nobody will drop out after IA. If anyone wants to bet on that name your bet, I'll cover it.

[Nathan Hale]

I think they'll still be invited

St Anselm's debate site is pretty clear about qualifications. Alas, everybody will meet them if Santorum's surge carries him to the top three in Iowa. The standards are:

1. Top three in Iowa. or....
2. 5% or more in an NH poll. or...
3. 5% or more in a national poll after 11/1/11 (some limitation on polling companies i.e. ppp is not on the list).

Santorum is the only one in danger of not getting invited, unless as I said his surge in Iowa is for real and he finishes in the top three. If it wasn't for #2 Huntsman would be out as well.

[Cap]

I think Bachmann should fear us the most though, and thereby endorse Paul to protect her congressional seat. If things don't go our way, and our guy retires, we'll have a lot of energy/money/focus to push behind who ever opposes her in the 6th district in MN...

We need to push this meme.

[milo10]

Everyone who is saying that nobody will endorse Ron may be underestimating what is happening here. Also, don't overestimate the effects of the MSM and Republican Establishment here, as many of these candidates were ripped apart by the MSM and seen as disposable by the GOP.

There is a seismic shift going on, and that will become more evident if/when Ron wins Iowa. If Ron wins Iowa and gets 2nd place in NH, it will be very clear that the Republican party is moving in a libertarian direction. To endorse Ron might be very beneficial to your future political career.

Perry could easily endorse Ron, especially if Ron wins SC. And especially if Palin endorse Ron before he drops out.

Bachmann is a strange one. The woman is a liar and seems to have little shame. It would be embarrassing for her now to endorse Ron, as she has possibly smeared him worse than anyone so far, but Ron's support may be key to her keeping her Congressional seat. If she decides the latter point is correct, she will endorse him, but after some type of meeting or phone call or some nonsense, that she will characterize as Ron making concessions to her in regards to his Iran position.

Huntsman I don't know much about.

Santorum, unlikely.

Gingrich - ha ha! :D