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View Full Version : New Politico Online National Poll: Paul 3rd 17.3% (includes oversampling of IA/NH)




IndianaPolitico
12-26-2011, 03:11 PM
http://images.politico.com/global/2011/12/emolink.html

Best ever national poll for us. 17.3% with the most solid support of any candidate!
Credit goes to braane for finding this, thought it deserved it's own thread.

bluesc
12-26-2011, 03:13 PM
Woooo :D!

nasaal
12-26-2011, 03:13 PM
Damn that ceiling got busted out again. Time to build a new one.

Sola_Fide
12-26-2011, 03:14 PM
wowowowow

SchleckBros
12-26-2011, 03:14 PM
Hahahahahahaha

BLOWBACK!

Elfshadow
12-26-2011, 03:15 PM
is it bad that the first thing that goes through my head is "The Roof, The Roof, The Roof is on fire"


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKhN0gh0kjY

tsai3904
12-26-2011, 03:16 PM
APCO Insight conducted a study of 1.036 likely GOP primary and caucus voters (nationally, and with oversamples in Iowa and New Hampshire).

The sample of 1,036 included 251 from Iowa and New Hampshire (24% of the survey).

ZanZibar
12-26-2011, 03:16 PM
"Emo" link LOL :p

Napolitanic Wars
12-26-2011, 03:17 PM
If I see another interview with Rick Santorum, given how low he has been in polls for so long, I will print this poll, then I will drive up to the interviewer's house and stuff it down his throat.

freeforall
12-26-2011, 03:17 PM
I can't wait to hear the msm say he can't get above 20%!

opinionatedfool
12-26-2011, 03:18 PM
What poll is this? I can't get the link to work for some reason.

SchleckBros
12-26-2011, 03:18 PM
Most Important part of this:

"Iowa: Ron Paul has a significant edge in Iowa with an Emotional Linking Index of 51.2."

and

"In New Hampshire, Mitt Romney is far and away the strongest “brand” among New Hampshire GOP primary voters (Emotional Linking Index of 55.7). Ron Paul comes in second and has stronger emotional connections with New Hampshire voters than the other six candidates."

Napolitanic Wars
12-26-2011, 03:19 PM
You have to download it. It's a PDF.

69360
12-26-2011, 03:19 PM
When did they poll?

sailingaway
12-26-2011, 03:21 PM
Wow, I saw this written up with the emotional index with Ron #1 in Iowa, but I didn't see the national numbers!! I wish the polling were later than the 22d, the first really big smear day, though. I'm waiting to see if there is impact from that.

pauladin
12-26-2011, 03:22 PM
Paul is dominating in vote certainty.

nbruno322
12-26-2011, 03:22 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1AOz6JggbM&list=UUv3hRLx97x9tTkfcKPzcmXQ&index=1&feature=plcp

FA.Hayek
12-26-2011, 03:22 PM
holy crap

PauliticsPolitics
12-26-2011, 03:22 PM
I have a feeling that this will not make it into the RealClearPolitics Average.
It's kinda an unusual, but interesting poll overall.
Also, notice the "Vote Certainty":

http://i42.tinypic.com/abt8pg.jpg

Agorism
12-26-2011, 03:23 PM
So they oversampled a Iowa and NH?

Why would they do that and ruin their poll in doing so?

Elfshadow
12-26-2011, 03:24 PM
That second row is devistating for Romney. Only one in ten of his people are certain they will vote for him. Can you say soft support?

AlienLanes82
12-26-2011, 03:24 PM
Well, he has clearly yet to show that he can break through his 17% ceiling.

Zydeco
12-26-2011, 03:25 PM
Proof that the smears are working...in our favor

The Gold Standard
12-26-2011, 03:26 PM
They oversampled Iowa and New Hampshire, so in reality the national numbers are probably no different from what Gallup has up there, around 13%.

affa
12-26-2011, 03:26 PM
is it bad that the first thing that goes through my head is "The Roof, The Roof, The Roof is on fire"


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKhN0gh0kjY

Bloodhound Gang got the lyrics from a 1985 song by Rockmaster Scott. I'm sure it's on youtube. If I remember correctly, it's not chanted till near the end of the song.

KramerDSP
12-26-2011, 03:27 PM
The best part is this, IMO...

Romney - 30.2% (10% will absolutely vote for Romney = 3.2% absolute votes)
Gingrich - 24.8% (23% will absolutely vote for Gingrich = 6% absolute votes)
Paul - 17.3% (41% will absolutely vote for Paul = 7% absolute votes)
Bachmann - 9.7% (16% absolute for Bachmann = 2% absolute votes)
Perry - 9.2% (11.5% absolute for Perry = 0.9% absolute votes)

opinionatedfool
12-26-2011, 03:27 PM
Wow, I saw this written up with the emotional index with Ron #1 in Iowa, but I didn't see the national numbers!! I wish the polling were later than the 22d, the first really big smear day, though. I'm waiting to see if there is impact from that.

I'm on pins and needles for new polls with recent days to come out. I keep checking all the sites to see if there is a new one.

Be prepared for more smears once this poll gets around.

69360
12-26-2011, 03:27 PM
So it's not really a national poll if the oversampled early states. Oh well.

InTradePro
12-26-2011, 03:27 PM
As I've been saying before people vote on a [positive] emotion not intellect.

The Gold Standard
12-26-2011, 03:27 PM
Actually, Gallup has Paul down to 12%. The smears might be having an effect.

Root
12-26-2011, 03:32 PM
No one but Paul!

eric4186
12-26-2011, 03:32 PM
anyone have a date range on this poll?

mport1
12-26-2011, 03:33 PM
Nice. I needed some good news to get my spirit up.

opinionatedfool
12-26-2011, 03:34 PM
That second row is devistating for Romney. Only one in ten of his people are certain they will vote for him. Can you say soft support?

Wow! We need to make this romney vs paul. Keep spreading the word about newts negatives and pauls positives everyone! We need to keep the positive momentum on Paul going and as well as the negatives on newt. I'm hoping we'll have at least two drop outs after iowa and at least two more after nh. We have to watch the candidates with high ratings on certainty.

IndianaPolitico
12-26-2011, 03:35 PM
Actually, Gallup has Paul down to 12%. The smears might be having an effect.
1% doesn't mean much. If this continues for a few more days, then it means something.

Epic
12-26-2011, 03:35 PM
APCO Insight®, the opinion research division
of APCO Worldwide, conducted the Emotional
Linking study on the 2012 GOP Presidential
candidates among a random sample of 1,036
likely voters in Republican primaries/caucuses
between December 17-22, 2012. Likely GOP
voters in Iowa and New Hampshire were
oversampled (n=146 Iowa; n=105 New
Hampshire).The study was conducted using
an interactive, online questionnaire over
APCO’s proprietary survey platform,
insightpoll.com.

It's an online poll. Also ended Dec 22.

AlexAmore
12-26-2011, 03:36 PM
anyone have a date range on this poll?

Dec. 17-22....kind of sucks for the timing of it

opinionatedfool
12-26-2011, 03:36 PM
Proof that the smears are working...in our favor

Not yet. Smears started on the 21st and the polling for this study was done through the 22nd. This week's polls will be a better indicator of what the smears did.

ca4paul
12-26-2011, 03:38 PM
Does this include indys because Ron leads by a wide margin with them.

opinionatedfool
12-26-2011, 03:38 PM
So it's not really a national poll if the oversampled early states. Oh well.

Over sampling early states is prob more accurate. Later states don't really have much say in who the top candidates will be.

69360
12-26-2011, 03:42 PM
Actually, Gallup has Paul down to 12%. The smears might be having an effect.

1% daily polling change is nothing but noise in the poll. If you see a 3 or 4 % drop then it might be a trend.

KingNothing
12-26-2011, 03:51 PM
1% daily polling change is nothing but noise in the poll. If you see a 3 or 4 % drop then it might be a trend.

Keep in mind that the Gallup poll is a 5-day rolling average, so it might take several days to actually know what is going on now and I doubt we'll see a drastic 3 or 4 point drop in one day.

eduardo89
12-26-2011, 03:53 PM
Damn that ceiling got busted out again. Time to build a new one.

What are you talking about? We've always has a 17.4% ceiling.

Agorism
12-26-2011, 03:53 PM
Did they oversample from Iowa or NH? Anyone know?

IndianaPolitico
12-26-2011, 03:55 PM
"I ALWAYS WIN!"-Ron Paul

braane
12-26-2011, 03:55 PM
Did they oversample from Iowa or NH? Anyone know?
It looks like it. Although I can't for the life of me figure out why they wouldn't select a random sample of 10 or so from each state and drop the rest for the national poll.
Online poll at that. :(

69360
12-26-2011, 03:56 PM
Keep in mind that the Gallup poll is a 5-day rolling average, so it might take several days to actually know what is going on now and I doubt we'll see a drastic 3 or 4 point drop in one day.

Exactly, if we see in drop down 4 points from the high, then there is trouble.

tsai3904
12-26-2011, 03:57 PM
Did they oversample from Iowa or NH? Anyone know?

Yes. 24% of the sample came from Iowa and New Hampshire. This is not a good national poll to compare to others.

Agorism
12-26-2011, 04:03 PM
And it was an online poll?

tsai3904
12-26-2011, 04:06 PM
And it was an online poll?

Yes.


The study was conducted using an interactive, online questionnaire over APCO’s proprietary survey platform, insightpoll.com.

opinionatedfool
12-26-2011, 04:09 PM
Yes.

Hahahaha! I'm waiting for real poll numbers to come out.

Agorism
12-26-2011, 04:11 PM
Hahahaha! I'm waiting for real poll numbers to come out.

Ya this thing sounds like garbage time poll.

speciallyblend
12-26-2011, 04:18 PM
If I see another interview with Rick Santorum, given how low he has been in polls for so long, I will print this poll, then I will drive up to the interviewer's house and stuff it down his throat.

I will chipin 5 bucks for gas. Think i will make a donation to ron paul tomorrow.

speciallyblend
12-26-2011, 04:20 PM
Yes.

when are the bigger polls coming?

Agorism
12-26-2011, 04:20 PM
In 2007, DMR started their final poll on the 27th.

tsai3904
12-26-2011, 04:21 PM
when are the bigger polls coming?

PPP will release an Iowa poll on Wednesday and another one just after New Years. I think Selzer & Co will release their final Iowa poll after New Years.

Fredom101
12-26-2011, 04:22 PM
If Ron Paul has even close to 17% nationally, the GOP is DEAD unless they nominate him or adopt his principles!

Agorism
12-26-2011, 04:27 PM
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071231/NEWS09/71231042

Final DMR was December 27–30, 2007

The Free Hornet
12-26-2011, 05:05 PM
If Ron Paul has even close to 17% nationally, the GOP is DEAD unless they nominate him or adopt his principles!

+1. Better dead than red! No more votes for redcoats! I survived Carter and Nixon. Eight year of Obama will be a cakewalk.

The_Ruffneck
12-26-2011, 05:43 PM
romney vote certainty at only 10%

speciallyblend
12-26-2011, 05:48 PM
Wow, I saw this written up with the emotional index with Ron #1 in Iowa, but I didn't see the national numbers!! I wish the polling were later than the 22d, the first really big smear day, though. I'm waiting to see if there is impact from that.

what poll are you waiting for to see if these attacks worked or not? I was curious? PPP? When does PPP come out?

speciallyblend
12-26-2011, 05:50 PM
PPP will release an Iowa poll on Wednesday and another one just after New Years. I think Selzer & Co will release their final Iowa poll after New Years.

thanks so we should know by wed. If these attacks worked. Ron Paul 2012 for the WIN!!

speciallyblend
12-26-2011, 05:51 PM
romney vote certainty at only 10%

what was rp's number?

KramerDSP
12-26-2011, 05:56 PM
what was rp number?

41% or so of the 17% of the people who voted Paul said they were 100% voting for Paul and were convinced of their decision.

speciallyblend
12-26-2011, 05:59 PM
41% or so of the 17% of the people who voted Paul said they were 100% voting for Paul and were convinced of their decision.

thanks great news. I want to see polls later this week to ease my mind.

Student Of Paulism
12-26-2011, 06:02 PM
what poll are you waiting for to see if these attacks worked or not? I was curious? PPP? When does PPP come out?

Doesn't seem like they are going to be doing one any time soon. Their twitter has barely mentioned anything about a new one coming, just a bunch of non-political crap and other stuff. Im guessing the holidays are interfering with that though, so i guess we won't see anything til next week, but by then really wouldnt matter, since caucus voting will begin.

jer4liberty
12-26-2011, 06:15 PM
PPP said last week they are polling Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday due to holiday then again over the weekend.

Cleaner44
12-27-2011, 12:26 AM
The data in this poll is very valuable regarding how people vote/buy mainly based on emotion rather than logical analysis.

sailingaway
12-27-2011, 12:28 AM
Online? Self selected like Zogby?

devil21
12-27-2011, 03:25 AM
I have a feeling that this will not make it into the RealClearPolitics Average.
It's kinda an unusual, but interesting poll overall.
Also, notice the "Vote Certainty":

http://i42.tinypic.com/abt8pg.jpg

Wow, Romney's support couldn't be any softer. Seeing how this is a caucus, Iowa supporters need to work hard to bring Mitt voters to our side. They're obviously impressionable and available for the taking. With that soft of a support for Mitt, Ron could pull 40% or higher if our caucus reps work for their votes. Newt also knows this too, and will try for their votes, but he doesn't have the organization that we do.

Keith and stuff
12-27-2011, 09:37 AM
http://images.politico.com/global/2011/12/emolink.html

Best ever national poll for us. 17.3% with the most solid support of any candidate!


Perhaps he did so well because it vastly oversampled 2 of his 3 (SD being the other) strongest states. I do look forward to the first scientific national poll that shows Ron Paul with over 15%, 16% or 17%, though :)

skyorbit
12-27-2011, 10:05 AM
What the hell does Emotional linking mean?