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View Full Version : 538 current predictions: Iowa will come down to the wire



Agorism
12-26-2011, 02:56 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

http://polipundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/GOP-primary-odds.png
sailingaway
12-26-2011, 02:58 PM
Isn't that the truth.

But there has been no new data out but he revised downwards. Just because, I guess.
kah13176
12-26-2011, 02:58 PM
Vote percentages don't matter. What is essential is that there are a majority of Paul supporters in every precinct, county, etc.

If we have 22% support, but they all live in Des Moines, well, won't the other 98 counties elect non-Ron Paul delegates? Not good.
cdc482
12-26-2011, 03:43 PM
Ya. Romney is too close for comfort
IndianaPolitico
12-26-2011, 03:46 PM
I know why they are predicting such a close race. The most positive polls came out a few weeks ago all at the same time, putting Paul solidly in the lead. Most recently the polls that always show him the lowest all came out at the same time. They don't take into account the fact that ALL the polls show large growth for Paul.
braane
12-26-2011, 03:51 PM
It's coming down to the wire!! 1 week now :o *NERVOUS*