Zydeco
12-25-2011, 09:33 PM
The MSM is pushing the "Iowa doesn't matter" meme hard now, often with a statistically challenged line like "Just ask Mike Huckabee," who won the Iowa Caucus in 2008 but lost the nomination to McCain.
But that's a statistical outlier: the Democrat who has won the Iowa Caucus has wound up winning the party's nomination 7 out of 10 times, while the Republican who has won the Iowa Caucus has won the party's nomination 6 out of 9 times.
Winners of the Iowa Caucus who got the nomination of their party:
1976 Carter D, Ford* R
1980 Carter D
1984 Mondale D, Reagan* R
1992 Bush* R
1996 Clinton* D, Dole R
2000 Gore D, Bush R
2004 Kerry D, Bush* R
2008 Obama D
Winners of the Iowa Caucus who didn't get the nomination:
1972 Muskie D
1980 Bush R
1988 Gephardt D, Dole R
1992 Harkin D
2008 Huckabee R
So Iowans are 68% (13/19) in picking the eventual nominee.
Five of those 19 (asterisked above) ran as sitting presidents without opposition (Ford 1976, Reagan 1984, Bush 1992, Clinton 1996, Bush 2004) so let's remove those from the equation for argument's sake: we're left with Iowans picking 8 out of 14, or 57%.
So don't believe Roger Simon et al. when they tell you Iowa doesn't matter since it has a history of picking "exotic" candidates but not winners. It's just another news-lie! The majority of Iowa Caucus winners do win their party's nomination. Which is why Iowa matters.
Oh, another thing: if Iowa doesn't matter, why do you keep sending all those journalists there?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
But that's a statistical outlier: the Democrat who has won the Iowa Caucus has wound up winning the party's nomination 7 out of 10 times, while the Republican who has won the Iowa Caucus has won the party's nomination 6 out of 9 times.
Winners of the Iowa Caucus who got the nomination of their party:
1976 Carter D, Ford* R
1980 Carter D
1984 Mondale D, Reagan* R
1992 Bush* R
1996 Clinton* D, Dole R
2000 Gore D, Bush R
2004 Kerry D, Bush* R
2008 Obama D
Winners of the Iowa Caucus who didn't get the nomination:
1972 Muskie D
1980 Bush R
1988 Gephardt D, Dole R
1992 Harkin D
2008 Huckabee R
So Iowans are 68% (13/19) in picking the eventual nominee.
Five of those 19 (asterisked above) ran as sitting presidents without opposition (Ford 1976, Reagan 1984, Bush 1992, Clinton 1996, Bush 2004) so let's remove those from the equation for argument's sake: we're left with Iowans picking 8 out of 14, or 57%.
So don't believe Roger Simon et al. when they tell you Iowa doesn't matter since it has a history of picking "exotic" candidates but not winners. It's just another news-lie! The majority of Iowa Caucus winners do win their party's nomination. Which is why Iowa matters.
Oh, another thing: if Iowa doesn't matter, why do you keep sending all those journalists there?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses