Shhhhhh....Ron Paul could win California and therefore the nomination

[skyorbit]

I know this is old news, so have their been any polls in California?
http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-washington-dc/shhhhhh-ron-paul-could-win-california-and-therefore-the-nomination

[Steppenwolf6]

I know this is old news, so have their been any polls in California?
http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-washington-dc/shhhhhh-ron-paul-could-win-california-and-therefore-the-nomination

And that not talking about Texas which,particularly in case of Perry failing in all the early states and giving up,would look like a possibility.
How the hell could you ignore a candidate that wins Texas?
You would have to be a serious magician to say that such a candidate is not serious or can't win.

I live in L.A. , I remember only very vaguely one poll,taken ages ago,like more than two months maybe,that showed Paul's like fourth,but behind also some "candidates" like Christie or Palin if I don't go wrong.
We need one now.
Here the tendency is to believe that often California will not have any saiyng,it will all be decided before us.
Good,because in case it will count we will be the most informed and ready.

[winston_blade]

Yeah there have been some polls but by the time California votes the people will have coalesced around a candidate anyway. This race will likely be decided by who wins SC and FL, especially if that is the same person.

Here is one of the latest polls from a month ago:

Poll (http://race42012.com/2011/11/15/poll-watch-ppp-d-california-2012-republican-primary-survey/)

[Sublyminal]

And that not talking about Texas which,particularly in case of Perry failing in all the early states and giving up,would look like a possibility.
How the hell could you ignore a candidate that wins Texas?
You would have to be a serious magician to say that such a candidate is not serious or can't win.


Didn't you hear? If someone wins a primary that the MSM doesn't like, they just ignore that primary or caucus. It's the new hip thing to do.

[Sublyminal]

Yeah there have been some polls but by the time California votes the people will have coalesced around a candidate anyway. This race will likely be decided by who wins SC and FL, especially if that is the same person.

Here is one of the latest polls from a month ago:

Poll (http://race42012.com/2011/11/15/poll-watch-ppp-d-california-2012-republican-primary-survey/)



Survey of 316 usual California Republican primary voters was conducted November 10-13, 2011.


316 out of how many voters?

[winston_blade]

Survey of 316 usual California Republican primary voters was conducted November 10-13, 2011.


316 out of how many voters?

PPP is an accurate pollster. We went through all this "the polls are wrong" stuff in 2008.

Also, California is one of the last states to vote, by that time the nominee will already be set.

[djruden]

PPP is an accurate pollster. We went through all this "the polls are wrong" stuff in 2008.

Also, California is one of the last states to vote, by that time the nominee will already be set.

With the rule changes by the RNC and very few states being winner-take-all until April, California with its large share of delegates could be one of the hottest contested states this primary season.

[craezie]

Usually candidates ignore California, because it always goes to one candidate way before they get to us. However, if it remains a two, or even better three, man race they will ignore at their own peril. Especially since each district apportions delegates like its own mini-state now. I do wish that there was more going on here in terms of organization and campaigning. I think this state is perfect for the Ron Paul message, but a lot of people haven't really heard of him here yet. Those that have heard have a lot of negative information from the media. Our government schools are among the worst in the nation, and I have noticed while working with lots of different companies (compared to people in other parts of the country) that there are many successful people here who have terrible critical thinking skills.

[eleganz]

rp has pretty good name recognition here....young people love him.

[Sublyminal]

PPP is an accurate pollster. We went through all this "the polls are wrong" stuff in 2008.

Also, California is one of the last states to vote, by that time the nominee will already be set.


How can you judge accuracy based on 316 people though, now I live all the way on the other coast and don't know how many people show up for CA primaries, but 316 people doesn't seem like enough to get an accurate picture. Just my opinion.

[winston_blade]

How can you judge accuracy based on 316 people though, now I live all the way on the other coast and don't know how many people show up for CA primaries, but 316 people doesn't seem like enough to get an accurate picture. Just my opinion.

I'm not sure, but that is what makes them experts. PPP polls are among the most accurate. Even still, by the time CA comes around, the person who is viewed as the eventual nominee will win CA. When was the last time the nominee wasn't a sure thing by the time California came around?

[Sublyminal]

I'm not sure, but that is what makes them experts. PPP polls are among the most accurate. Even still, by the time CA comes around, the person who is viewed as the eventual nominee will win CA. When was the last time the nominee wasn't a sure thing by the time California came around?


That's true, but if we're to believe the media it may come down to a brokered convention, which means they're deathly afraid of Ron Paul.

[LibertyEagle]

All we can do is to participate in the campaign's Phone-from-Home program like there is no tomorrow and find out what it takes to become a delegate in our respective states and do it.

If we overwhelm them with numbers, it will be hard to deny him.

[skyorbit]

316 out of hundreads of thousands is going to have a huge margin of error. I mean, most of the Iowa and NH polls are around 600 and their margin of error is usually around 4%. California's going to have 10 times the amount of people voting, so I don't see 316 people being a good polling sample.

[skyorbit]

Speaking of Texas. Several polls a few months ago had Ron Paul LEADING everybody including Perry. (I think Perry came in 4th in many of those polls.)

[Steppenwolf6]

Usually candidates ignore California, because it always goes to one candidate way before they get to us. However, if it remains a two, or even better three, man race they will ignore at their own peril. Especially since each district apportions delegates like its own mini-state now. I do wish that there was more going on here in terms of organization and campaigning. I think this state is perfect for the Ron Paul message, but a lot of people haven't really heard of him here yet. Those that have heard have a lot of negative information from the media. Our government schools are among the worst in the nation, and I have noticed while working with lots of different companies (compared to people in other parts of the country) that there are many successful people here who have terrible critical thinking skills.

Well,it's a majorly blue lefty state,I call it California soviet...of course ...BUT the type of conservatives that do exist here( by the way O.C. and Bakersfield are major repubs stronghold counties) will be taking a serious look at Ron Paul.
By reaction at living in such a dems state and by culture californian cons are both "extreme" and unconventional who don't love the establishment and repub party so much,they feel is weak and uneffective here and ,like in the case of Scwarzenegger and others,they have vastly betraiyed their expectations.

[jordie]

My predicition is that texas and california will both go to Paul. Perry will be out by the time they come around and my preidiction is that he'll endorse Dr. Paul (you can tell Perry HATES Romney, but has taken a liking to Paul)

[Steppenwolf6]

Yes the polls are what they are,I take them..with their limitations,in this particular case big,obvious limitations.
Will see the new ones.

But,If it helps anybody I will give you my personal observations as a californian:

There is NO interest or the vaguest shadow of a campaign,a sign or a discussion about the repubs primary and candidates going on at all here.
Nothing,zippo,zero.
With only one single ,unique ,peculiar exception:
RonPaul2012.

I see it in cars parked by houses in ..latinos ultradems areas,the most unexpected places,everywhere.
I hear people on line for coffee discussing him in interested,maybe doubtful but also positive ways.

For the whole rest,the mitt grinch etc. at the most is a general,apathetic:
" republicans really suck this year " ," who cares"..or so.
Nothing but Obama Biden 2012(mostly)
OR:
Ronpaul2012.

nobody else and nothing for the rest of repubs,not a shadow.

[Steppenwolf6]

Hard to believe Perry will go that far.
I don'hate him as much as I hate the other centrist ,progressive big establishemnt repubs Romney..Gingric..Huntsmann(God do I hate him..I think that people believing he is a little bit better than the rest are VERY misguided,he is one of the worst..a false conservative and a big liar as they come,not warm ,not cold,lukewarm and for that i puke HIM out)
Perry,as ignorant as he is,as comical as he is, has at least a lining of sincerity in his conservatism and that alone makes him a notch better than the three liars above.
But do not expect he will have the courage to really challenge the establishment !
I would be so happy if he does..i would not put a dollar on it.

[enoch150]

I know this is old news, so have their been any polls in California?
http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-washington-dc/shhhhhh-ron-paul-could-win-california-and-therefore-the-nomination

I made a map with all of the most recent polls I could find. I update it once or twice a week.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?322939-State-by-state-polling

Part of what gets factored in to the polls is the electability issue. Win Iowa and/or New Hampshire, and the 'unelectable' problem goes away in a lot of minds and all of the polls taken in states like California prior to the IA/NH win become meaningless.

[ca4paul]

California has the most donors to Ron Paul and because of that alone, we are better than every other state out there. We have better weather, cooler people, more technology and inventions, more intelligent folks(if you discount the illegal alien population) and better women. Unfortunately, our majority is almost lost and has been shut down by the 9th circuit court of marxists many times now. So things get tipped in favor of the idiot 30% demicraps in our state since so many illegals jumped on with them as well. If not for the 9th circuit our state would still be prosperous and living in the pre-pete wilson era, instead of the regulation, high taxes era we are now in.

Slowly but surely rights issues will be won back with ballot initiatives. Even the demicraps are starting to dislike our police state. Once that happens, the house of cards, regulation and tax lobbies will be smashed.

Let's not forget Ron Paul won the L.A. straw poll out here not too long ago.

The tide is turning, surfs up.

[seekingliberty]

I don't think a lot of people care or are paying attention yet since our primary is so far away. Here in San Joaquin county, I have only seen Ron Paul and Obama signs/ bumper stickers. Our Ron Paul group (SJC4RP.info) started in Oct with 8 of us at a sign bomb. We now have around 20 active people. We have had a lot of interest when we do events. We will be kicking it up a notch with the new year. We're all working our personal connections as well as our community. I think Ron Paul can do really well here!

[BarryDonegan]

Remember, polls mean a lot less until candidates begin buying tv commercials

[Steppenwolf6]

I don't think a lot of people care or are paying attention yet since our primary is so far away. Here in San Joaquin county, I have only seen Ron Paul and Obama signs/ bumper stickers. Our Ron Paul group (SJC4RP.info) started in Oct with 8 of us at a sign bomb. We now have around 20 active people. We have had a lot of interest when we do events. We will be kicking it up a notch with the new year. We're all working our personal connections as well as our community. I think Ron Paul can do really well here!
Exactly,same everywhere throughout California( I travel for work):
Only,exclusively Ron Paul and Obama/Biden.
There is NOT a single promotional action,nothing in the repub side except Ron Paul everywhere.

[Yoddle]

"Yeah but uh.... California, Texas, and Iowa don't matter anymore" -Media

[idiom]

I would like to see head to head polling of Obama vs Paul with some breakdown.

It would be awesome if RP could say, "Nominate me because I will put California in play in the general."

[giovannile07]

I would like to see head to head polling of Obama vs Paul with some breakdown.

It would be awesome if RP could say, "Nominate me because I will put California in play in the general."
If Ron Paul won California in the general election that would be pretty intense since we are such a liberal state. As for Ron Paul supporters here, I haven't really seen many bumper stickers or anything in general for any candidates, but I think if you warmed up the idea of Ron Paul to a lot of Democrats here they may go for it. A lot of people though are Obama Zombies, they think since he's a Democrat he's the candidate to vote for yet they really do not know anything about him.

[Orwell]

316 out of hundreads of thousands is going to have a huge margin of error. I mean, most of the Iowa and NH polls are around 600 and their margin of error is usually around 4%. California's going to have 10 times the amount of people voting, so I don't see 316 people being a good polling sample.

The actual population size isn't of much significance when determining margin of error. For example, if your sample size is 300 and your total population is 5000, your margin of error is 5.49. Now let's assume your population is 5,000,000 and you keep your sample size at 300, your margin of error only increases to 5.66.

[Paulitics 2011]

California is an open primary, right?

[skyorbit]

Do you have a link to that Texas Poll?

tracy

[enoch150]

Do you have a link to that Texas Poll?

tracy

http://www.fontcraft.com/azimuth/?p=11

It's old. Poll Date: 5/29-6/3, 2011

Ron Paul – 22%
Rick Perry – 17%
Herman Cain – 14%
Newt Gingrich – 11%
Gary Johnson – 9%
Mitt Romney – 8%
Michele Bachmann – 7%
Tim Pawlenty – 2%
John Huntsman – 2%
Rick Santorum – 1%
Undecided – 7%

[vita3]

Ron will win easily in California.

[White Bear Lake]

If it we're still in it by the time California rolls around, we have a great shot at winning it.

If we're out of it, we're probably not going to win it.

[skyorbit]

So, All we have to do is stayvible untill these later state's come. But it'd be bes tif we could win some early states too.

[Brian4Liberty]

California is an open primary, right?

Don't count on that! Last time around you had to be a registered Republican to vote for Ron Paul. We have a mixed system. Some elections are open, but the Parties can choose whether their Presidential Primaries are open. The GOP and Dems close their primary.

[Brian4Liberty]

Ron will win easily in California.

It will be a battle. Many GOP people in California are fully programmed by the establishment and the neoconservatives. They are 100% into the false left/right paradigm. The toughest talking GOP candidate is their favorite.

[Christopher David]

It will all come down to organization. California's delegates are allocated winner-take-all by congressional district. If Ron takes first in each district, all 172 delegates will be his.

If the race extends to early June, California will very likely decide the nomination.

Thread: If Ron Paul wins Iowa and California, he will probably win the nomination. (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?332909-If-Ron-Paul-wins-Iowa-and-California-he-will-probably-win-the-nomination)

Los Angeles and California folk, please join our Cali grassroots efforts now. -->

Thread: Los Angeles grassroots HQ opens, declares California Call4Paul Blitz to Win Iowa (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?342201-Los-Angeles-grassroots-HQ-opens-declares-California-Call4Paul-Blitz-to-Win-Iowa)