Has the U of N. H. poll been posted yet? Romney 39, Ron Paul 17, Gingrich 17?

[sailingaway]

Romney has the support of 39 percent of the state’s likely Republican voters, a drop of 3 percentage points since last month but a strong indication he is weathering Gingrich’s national comeback in a state vital to his campaign.

In the closely watched contest for second place, Gingrich and Paul are tied with 17 percent each, just ahead of Jon Huntsman, who has the support of 11 percent of likely Republican voters.

But as the race hurtles toward the Jan. 10 primary, Paul has been gaining the most in New Hampshire. His support has risen by 5 percentage points since November, while Huntsman has picked up 3 percentage points in the last month and Gingrich has gained 2.

The momentum for Paul raises the prospect that he, not Gingrich, could emerge as the strongest early challenger to Romney if the Texas congressman can hold on to his lead in Iowa and capture second place in New Hampshire.

The remainder of the Republican field remains largely sidelined in New Hampshire. Rick Santorum is in fourth place, with support from 3 percent of the state’s likely Republican voters, followed by Michele Bachmann at 2 percent and Rick Perry at 1 percent.

The polling for this ended on the 19th though, so it seems kind of late to be reported as new. Maybe I just didn't see it here?

http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2011/12/25/romney-leads-paul-rises-poll/At0SqxcEVf4vI05E65ip0O/story.html

[hueylong]

Hadn't seen this yet. Link?

[Dorfsmith]

Hadn't seen this yet. Link?

http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2011/12/25/romney-leads-paul-rises-poll/At0SqxcEVf4vI05E65ip0O/story.html

[Epic]

http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2011/12/25/romney-leads-paul-rises-poll/At0SqxcEVf4vI05E65ip0O/story.html

It's new, I believe, and the numbers aren't good enough.

More work to do.


The live telephone survey of 543 likely Republican voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between Dec. 12 and Dec. 19, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Might not be totally up to date though.


And as much as I like Ron Paul, I don’t think he’s electable. I just want someone who can beat that guy in the White House right now.’’


In the heated days ahead, both Romney and Gingrich could be fighting over the same voters. The reason: A plurality of Romney supporters said Gingrich would be their second choice, and most Gingrich supporters said Romney would be theirs.


Paul, with his libertarian leanings, drew even more support from those two groups (Inds and Dems), even though he was also named the most consistently conservative candidate in the race.

[hueylong]

The numbers aren't good enough, but we're in a VERY strong position. Romney LIVES in NH and was Governor of neighboring MA. An Iowa win and we are poised for a close 2nd in NH -- which would be awesome. If we make it close at all -- it looks terrible for Romney.

[Steppenwolf6]

I do not believe Romney is so high.
I just refuse to believe that the "live free or die" state which voted for Pat Buchanan is so utterly,completely,generally stupid.
It's more like:
" yea..I know Romney,I at least I know his name and he is a famous,good man who lives here in N.H."
But those are not necessarily all votes when time comes.

[hueylong]

Interestingly, it looks like they only polled "likely Republican voters" and there is no discussion of Independents or Democrats who might cross over to vote in the Republican Primary. If that is the case, Dr. Paul is likely in an even stronger position.

Also, note that only 25% of voters have strongly made up their minds and fully 50% are still undecided.

[Epic]

True, I think this race will close, especially when RP wins Iowa. But you just can't be 22 points back with a little over 2 weeks to go. Of course, the PPP poll had us 16 points back, which is more favorable.

[sailingaway]

http://bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2011/12/25/romney-leads-paul-rises-poll/At0SqxcEVf4vI05E65ip0O/story.html

:o

and added to the OP

[Epic]

Interestingly, it looks like they only polled "likely Republican voters" and there is no discussion of Independents or Democrats who might cross over to vote in the Republican Primary. If that is the case, Dr. Paul is likely in an even stronger position.

Also, note that only 25% of voters have strongly made up their minds and fully 50% are still undecided.

"Likely Republican Primary voters", I think they meant.

And no, the article did discuss Inds and Dems:


Paul, with his libertarian leanings, drew even more support from those two groups (Inds and Dems), even though he was also named the most consistently conservative candidate in the race.

[Epic]

The campaign needs to be planning a Jon Downs special video on Romney...

[splint]

If people just did 1 hour of independent research on the candidates, it would be a whole different race right now in NH. Live Free or Die?

[Steppenwolf6]

yes,true.

40% for a declared and factual progressive by republicans ..if it's true it is incredibly upsetting to me.
I can never cease to be flubbergasted by how deeply ignorant much of the republican electorate is.
It's just upsetting.
What's wrong with people?
Why do they buy literally anything?
And can it be true?
will find out soon.

[Anti Federalist]

I do not believe Romney is so high.
I just refuse to believe that the "live free or die" state which voted for Pat Buchanan is so utterly,completely,generally stupid.
It's more like:
" yea..I know Romney,I at least I know his name and he is a famous,good man who lives here in N.H."
But those are not necessarily all votes when time comes.

Do not kid yourself.

Romney is strong here.

That's why I'm pushing the Northern Pass issue.

Romney is weak on this, and it is a hated project in NH.

[RPit]

As we see the main obstacle is the myth Ron can't beat Obama. We need an Ad that addresses this.

[sailingaway]

As we see the main obstacle is the myth Ron can't beat Obama. We need an Ad that addresses this.

I agree. And not 'the one who can beat Obama' fluff -- USE THE POLLS. He has GREAT polls against Obama.

[mavtek]

This needs to go Viral in NH!

While most candidates have threatened to use military action to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, only 16 percent of voters said they would support an attack now. Sixty-three percent said the United States should continue economic and diplomatic efforts instead.

Only our guy is here and we need to be getting that 63%!

[daviddee]

...

[daviddee]

...

[RDM]

People keep on forgetting for close to 10 years, Romney has greased a lot of palms in that state in the way of donating to just about every Republican candidate running for office. Those he has supported also have supporters and that tends to influence voters.

Read the forum post covering this: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?326659-Unremitting-How-Romney-wore-down-New-Hampshire

[hueylong]

A strong 2nd here is a win. Even, say 35 / 28 -- anything under 10 and Romney looks very very weak.

[Agorism]

This is why I think we need negative ads in NH.

[IDefendThePlatform]

Things that sound good to me:

Pushing Northern Pass issue per AF
Ads with polls showing RP beating Obama or at least doing better than the others
Ominous antiwar/ anti Romney ad showing him talking about bombing Iran. Maybe using that interview from ore illy last week or some hawkish quotes from the debate. Then show RP as consistently antiwar. We need to go on the offensive against Romney here.


And of course phone from home like crazy these last 3 weeks.

[matt0611]

Seems like we really need to step it up in NH.

We all know that RP will get a few % more than reported due to the enthusiasm of his supporters, plus an IA win and the independent voters will help but it seems we are too far away for that. I think we really need to be within 4-5% points which means we have some work to do.

Ads + phone banking etc

I think we need negative Romney ads.

[Agorism]

Is it on RCP?

[sailingaway]

Things that sound good to me:

Pushing Northern Pass issue per AF
Ads with polls showing RP beating Obama or at least doing better than the others
Ominous antiwar/ anti Romney ad showing him talking about bombing Iran. Maybe using that interview from ore illy last week or some hawkish quotes from the debate. Then show RP as consistently antiwar. We need to go on the offensive against Romney here.


And of course phone from home like crazy these last 3 weeks.


I don't know about going more negative there than he has (the status quo, pro tarp etc stuff) and we or RevPac with northern' pass although we have to be accurate in how we portray that. I'd go with POSITIVE pro peace pro civil liberties approach, and definitely his polls showing he does well against Obama. MUCH better than Gingrich...

Ron is not going to get the Romney vote with negative ads, imho. But he should show why he should have the anti-Romney vote.

[69360]

What I get from this is that NH likes Ron but has electability concerns. A win in IA, a weeklong Ron/Rand tour of NH, MSM laying off the letters and MSM hitting Gingrich hard on ethics and not making the VA ballot and it could turn fast. Conditions would have to be just right to win, second is most likely.

[sailingaway]

hilariously, Huntsman loving media, who really wants a Democrat in office, are saying 'Gingrich and Ron Paul are tied at 17, just ahead of Huntsman who comes in with 11%.

If the numbers were reversed, if they mentioned fourth place at all, it would be 'Ron Paul is the only other candidate in double digits with...."

17 is significantly different than 11

[Agorism]

A strong 2nd here is a win. Even, say 35 / 28 -- anything under 10 and Romney looks very very weak.

Ya but then Newt wins S.C. and where do we go from there when we're weak in Florida?

[sailingaway]

Ya but then Newt wins S.C. and where do we go from there when we're weak in Florida?

Well, Gingrich is weak in Virginia... :p

[da32130]

Just looking at Intrade.com, we need to win NH. Then we need to win SC. We can then possibly lose florida and still make it.

NH weakens Mitt. SC weakens newt (probably kills him). Mitt wins FL and keeps himself alive. We win FL and we win it all.

That is how people are betting. We need to keep phoning to get the Iowa lead as large as possible and set up a run at NH. Current odds on a NH win are around 15%. Better than we had in Iowa a couple months ago. Nomination win is only 8%. So we are going to have to build some early large momentum.

[69360]

Ya but then Newt wins S.C. and where do we go from there when we're weak in Florida?

Newt not on the VA ballot could be used to great advantage in SC. People won't want to throw away their vote on a non-serious candidate.

[Steppenwolf6]

This is why I think we need negative ads in NH.

Yes.
ad title:
" I am a progressive!"
But let's' not forget we also need a lot of positive,lots of true info on Ron Paul.
Can't win on negative only.

[jsingh1022]

We can win Iowa without snow for certain. Let's say Ron Paul bumps 4-5% from a win in Iowa he's still behind Romney. If we get heavy snow in New Hampshire on January 10th our chances of winning skyrocket. Winning the first contests would be a gift from god.

Me being from Massachusetts I can say snow 1/3rd through January happens more often than not.

[Steppenwolf6]

I know Romney is strongER there,I know he is strongER in the northeast as opposed to the rest of the country where he is weak,bordeline despised and not even seriously considered by the core conservative electorate.
in the mid west and the south he does not stand a chance.

He is strongER there now,but not with enthused ,strongly motivated votes at all.
In N.H. he is not THAT strong,he is more like at the 31% i recently saw in another poll,realistically.
31% which can also come down,with a negative ad ,yes,but most of all with an amazingly organized,informative positive Ron Paul's campaign there.
He is not undefatable,he is a fundamentally flawed candidate for a republican election,not a perfect one by far and his votes are never strongly motivated or absolutely certain as the majority of Ron Paul are.
N.H. is not locked for him ,as the common line of the msm would make you believe(" and then Romney wins N.H." is a costant line,you have been hearing it month after month,let those fools take it for granted..)

[r3volution]

NH 2008 primary results .
Candidate Vote % Delegates

John McCain 88,571 37.1% 7

Mitt Romney 75,546 31.6 4

Mike Huckabee 26,859 11.2 1

Rudolph Giuliani 20,439 8.6 0

Ron Paul 18,308 7.7 0

Fred D Thompson 2,894 1.2 0


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NH.html

[r3volution]

btw . paul was polling at 8.2% and got 7.7% of the vote .

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

[Canderson]

btw . paul was polling at 8.2% and got 7.7% of the vote .

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

It was those dumb newsletters, and it may just happen again this election.

[ross11988]

btw . paul was polling at 8.2% and got 7.7% of the vote .

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

Newsletters, being excluded from the Fox Debate, and the lost hope after Iowa.

[South Park Fan]

btw . paul was polling at 8.2% and got 7.7% of the vote .

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_primary-193.html

Don't forget that New Hampshire was essentially a two-way race after Iowa; it was going to be either McCain or Romney, so anyone who liked Ron Paul but would have preferred McCain over Romney or vice-versa would strategically vote for one of the frontrunners. It will be a different situation this time since Ron has a good chance of winning Iowa and is the leading alternative to Romney in New Hampshire.

[RP Supporter]

Keep in mind Obama was leading by double digits in NH and went down to lose to Clinton. Turnout and passion will be important.

Also, this is just one poll. Others have shown the race to be significantly closer. I'm not sure which poll is the gold standard (;)) in NH, but we could be closer then this one has us. And even this poll confirms that Romney's slowly sinking and Paul is surging. If we assume that Mitt loses another 3 points before the primary, and Paul gains let's say 7 points from a win in Iowa and continuing campaigning the race suddenly becomes very different.

Romney: 36
Paul: 24

Factor in high turnout for our guy and we make it a single point race. A win here is still very possible.

[Tyler_Durden]

Real clear politics is where to get the Poll averages. It should be what the MSM uses, rather than picking and choosing individual poll results, IMHO.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html