New Intrade Numbers !

[ProBlue33]

http://i340.photobucket.com/albums/o350/Blue_Jay33/RonPaul-2.jpg

Just joking, but those Intrade numbers are rocking now, and no bad press can stop them.
In fact it looks like the news letters thing backfired with GOP primary voters.

*** Edited title ***

[z9000]

deleted

[bluesc]

And after the newsletters I mean really, what do they have left?

Check the latest AP wire. They are getting extremely desperate, and it's a beautiful thing to witness.

FU establishment hacks, you can't stop us.

[coastie]

Your title really sucks.

[ProBlue33]

Your title really sucks.

I agree and changed it.

[mport1]

Nice. When do some more polls come out? I want a few to confirm that his support hasn't dropped in Iowa or elsewhere because of the controversy.

[bluesc]

Nice. When do some more polls come out? I want a few to confirm that his support hasn't dropped in Iowa or elsewhere because of the controversy.

Keep an eye on the PPP twitter account. Their poll will be out tomorrow, but we might get some info today.

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

[Blue]

All we need now is a poll showing Ron still in first and we will know 100% that the racist newsletter smear campaign has backfired. Right now I'd say we are 99% :D

[justatrey]

Dammit I just joined intrade specifically to buy shares of Ron winning Iowa, but was hoping to get in under 50%. Naturally, they weren't accepting credit card deposits the last couple days.

I'm wondering if it's still a good buy. It sure feels like our odds are better than 50/50...

[sailingaway]

Keep an eye on the PPP twitter account. Their poll will be out tomorrow, but we might get some info today.

https://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

You really think they will put out a poll on Christmas day?

[matt0611]

We need to work on NH next. Our chance to win NH is pretty low ~ 15% I think.

[bluesc]

You really think they will put out a poll on Christmas day?

You make a good point :cool:

[justatrey]

wow...

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

59.9%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.99 / share
Today's Change: +$1.14 (+23.5%)

[ProBlue33]

wow...

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus

59.9%
CHANCE
Last prediction was: $5.99 / share
Today's Change: +$1.14 (+23.5%)

WOW, Imagine if you bought 1000 shares like 3 months ago how much you would be making.

[InTradePro]

For individual states liquidity is low, so accuracy will be low also.

Iowa https://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=749798&location=TradeCentre
New Hampshire https://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=749803&location=TradeCentre
South Carolina https://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=trade&request_type=action&selConID=750749&location=TradeCentre

[InTradePro]

WOW, Imagine if you bought 1000 shares like 3 months ago how much you would be making.
No one bought a thousand shares on Iowa 3 months ago because if they had the price would of shot up.

[tsai3904]

Keep an eye on the PPP twitter account. Their poll will be out tomorrow, but we might get some info today.

Their next Iowa poll is coming out on on Wednesday the 28th.

[Carole]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
We found Newt with a 26 pt lead in Virginia 2 weeks ago and he couldn't even get on the freaking ballot: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/gingrich-allen-cuccinelli-up-in-virginia.html
5 hours ago
»

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
@
@Hoosier114 No we'll do one the 30th to 1st too even though it's less than ideal...
23 Dec
»

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
@
@ForecasterEnten @Hoosier114 We'd need some funding to poll Iowa more than once a week. We'll go back in the field Monday
23 Dec

[Epic]

What information is being factored in here?

RP and Romney were tied a couple days ago at 40 or so.

[Koz]

How does Huntsman even have a .2 percent chance. He has zero chance at winning Iowa.

[Agorism]

What's causing this movement? The newest polls weren't anything special.

[ProBlue33]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749798

You could make about $4.50 a share if Ron wins, right now, that is some ok money if you have enough shares.
What I don't understand is when the results comes in and it's over who buys those shares?
Is it Intrade that pays them all out?

[Kenny Tan]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=749798

You could make about $4.50 a share if Ron wins, right now, that is some ok money if you have enough shares.
What I don't understand is when the results comes in and it's over who buys those shares?
Is it Intrade that pays them all out?

Shares are created when traders short shares and other traders buy them. When you short shares you have to put up collateral to cover the full $10.00 paid out if the share wins. That's why its impossible to just buy 1000 shares because you need a person on the other side of the market willing to short them to you.

[Lafayette]

Clearly Paul's 55.4% chance to win Iowa just means he is 44.6% unelectable :rolleyes:

[Agorism]

Nate Silver's latest numbers shifted back towards Romney after that Rasmussen poll and a couple other ones.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

He has it at a 50-50 contest. I'm not sure what is going on with those intrude numbers right now but I don't trust them.

[LibertAtOnce]

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
We found Newt with a 26 pt lead in Virginia 2 weeks ago and he couldn't even get on the freaking ballot:

lmaooo this is too funny

[low preference guy]

What's causing this movement? The newest polls weren't anything special.

More bettors believing Paul will win. My guess it's because the newsletters attack didn't work at least so far.

[Dr.3D]

What's causing this movement? The newest polls weren't anything special.

I believe people are waking up to what is commonly called the main stream media.

[Karsten]

We need to work on NH next. Our chance to win NH is pretty low ~ 15% I think.
Worry not. It will rise exponentially if we win Iowa.
We STILL need to put all our chips in on Iowa.