Adrian.Bisson
12-24-2011, 07:37 AM
I was reading some old Ron Paul articles, and came across one from April 2002 called "Predictions".
These predictions were made at a time when most of them probably seemed fairly unlikely according to the conventional wisdom of the time. Turns out they've almost all come true, and the others might be around the corner. I went through and did a little fact-checking on each one that might even be considered debatable and added some support for what I found.
Predictions (http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul29.html)
by Congressman Ron Paul, MD
April 26, 2002
Our government intervention in the economy and in the private affairs of citizens, and the internal affairs of foreign countries, leads to uncertainty and many unintended consequences. Here are some of the consequences about which we should be concerned.
I predict U.S. taxpayers will pay to rebuild Palestine, both the West Bank and the Gaza, as well as Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers paid to bomb these areas, so we will be expected to rebuild them. TRUE (http://endtheoccupation.org/article.php?id=3122)
Peace, of sorts, will come to the Middle East, but will be short-lived. There will be big promises of more U.S. money and weapons flowing to Israel and to Arab countries allied with the United States. TRUE
U.S. troops and others will be used to monitor the "peace." YET TO BE, BUT PLAUSIBLE (http://www.usmep.us/usmep/2010/05/01/peacekeeping-in-palestine/)
To garner the support of both of the key parties, therefore, it is more likely that the military component of any such international mission would need to be organized as a U.S.-led “coalition of the willing” or, perhaps more likely, by the NATO Alliance.
A plausible construct would thus be a NATO-led military component with a civilian-led parallel organization to handle political, governance and development matters.
In time, an oil boycott will be imposed, with oil prices soaring to historic highs. DEVELOPING (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-23/u-s-joins-eu-push-to-embargo-iran-oil-over-nuclear-effort.html)
The Obama administration and European governments are seeking help from Arab and Asian allies to reduce Iran’s oil revenue in the dispute over its nuclear program, while trying to avoid causing a surge in prices that may threaten the global economic recovery.
The most wide-ranging effort to date to target Iranian income, the strategy includes a push by France and Britain for an embargo as soon as next month on imports of Iranian oil by the 27 European Union countries.
Current Israeli-United States policies will solidify Arab Muslim nations in their efforts to avenge the humiliation of the Palestinians. That will include those Muslim nations that in the past have fought against each other. TRUE? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Freedom_Flotilla)
In this flotilla, over 600 activists were on board the Mavi Marmara alone. There were 663 passengers from 37 nations on board the flotilla.
Some of our moderate Arab allies will be overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_spring)
The U.N. will continue to condemn, through resolutions, Israeli-U.S. policies in the Middle East, and they will be ignored. TRUE (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/19/us-veto-israel-settlement)
The Obama administration wielded its first veto at the UN security council last night in a move to swipe down a resolution condemning Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory.
The US stood alone among the 15 members of the security council in failing to condemn the resumption of settlement building that has caused a serious rift between the Israeli government and the Palestinian authority and derailed attempts to kick-start the peace process.
Some European countries will clandestinely support the Muslim countries and their anti-Israel pursuits. TRUE (http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/secret-eu-paper-aims-to-tackle-israel-s-treatment-of-arab-minority-1.401678)
The European Union should consider Israel's treatment of its Arab population a "core issue, not second tier to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," according to a classified working paper produced by European embassies in Israel, parts of which were obtained by Haaretz.
China, ironically assisted by American aid, much more openly will sell to militant Muslims the weapons they want, and will align herself with the Arab nations. TRUE (http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-arab-friendship-cooperation-to-continue-chinese-mideast-envoy.html)
2011-08-29 (China Military News cited from Xinhua) -- The friendship and cooperation relations between China and the Arab world have the foundation and potential for further development in the long run despite temporary impact of the region's ongoing unrest, said Chinese special envoy to the Middle East Wu Sike here on Sunday.
The United States, with Tony Blair as head cheerleader, will attack Iraq without proper authority, and a major war, the largest since World War II, will result. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War)
Major moves will be made by China, India, Russia, and Pakistan in Central Asia to take advantage of the chaos for the purpose of grabbing land, resources, and strategic advantages sought after for years. TRUE (http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-china-seeks-profit-shuns-politics-afghanistan-120821129.html)
But the rich mineral reserves lying untapped in Afghanistan after decades of war are a tempting and potentially lucrative lure for resource-hungry China, whose companies have already shown an ability to operate profitably in hostile environments.
The Karzai government will fail, and U.S. military presence will end in Afghanistan. YET TO BE (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15213999)
President Hamid Karzai has said his government and Nato have failed to provide Afghans with security, 10 years after the Taliban were overthrown.
Speaking to the BBC, Mr Karzai also accused Pakistan of supporting the insurgency, saying sanctuaries there still needed to be tackled.
He vowed to step down in 2014 and said he was working on the succession.
His comments come as the ex-commander of coalition forces said Nato allies remain far from reaching their goals.
After a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, retired Army General Stanley McChrystal estimated that the coalition was "a little better than" half way to achieving its military ambitions, adding that the US began the war with a "frighteningly simplistic" view.
An international dollar crisis will dramatically boost interest rates in the United States. DEBATABLE (http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/99488.pdf)
The dollar’s value in international exchange has been falling since early 2002.Over this five year span, the currency, on a real trade weighted basis, is down about 29%. For most of this time the dollar’s fall was moderately paced at about 3.0% to 4.0% annually. Recently, however, the slide has accelerated, falling nearly 10% between January and December of 2007. An acceleration of the depreciation brings the periodic concern of an impending dollar crisis to the fore. There is no precise demarcation of when a falling dollar moves from being an orderly decline to being a crisis. Most likely it would be a situation where the dollar falls, perhaps 15% to 20% annually for several years, and sends a significant negative shock to the U.S. and the global economies. This crisis may not be an inevitable outcome, but one that likely presents considerable risk to the economy.
Price inflation, with a major economic downturn, will decimate U.S. Federal Government finances, with exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-2000s_financial_crisis)
Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate, with massive credit expansion, which will make the dollar crisis worse. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as money. TRUE (http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3)
The first top-to-bottom audit of the Federal Reserve uncovered eye-popping new details about how the U.S. provided a whopping $16 trillion in secret loans to bail out American and foreign banks and businesses during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Erosion of civil liberties here at home will continue as our government responds to political fear in dealing with the terrorist threat by making generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act. TRUE (http://politics.salon.com/2011/12/16/three_myths_about_the_detention_bill/singleton/)
...this bill codifies the power of indefinite detention. It expressly empowers the President — with regard to anyone accused of the acts in section (b) – to detain them “without trial until the end of the hostilities.”
The draft will be reinstated, causing domestic turmoil and resentment. FALSE
Many American military personnel and civilians will be killed in the coming conflict. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war)
War on Terror: Afghanistan and Iraq Wars total 2001–present
Dead: 6,580/Wounded: 41,936/Missing: 3
The leaders of whichever side loses the war will be hauled into and tried before the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The United States will not officially lose the war, but neither will we win. Our military and political leaders will not be tried by the International Criminal Court. TRUE (http://www.politicususa.com/en/dick-cheney-war-criminal)
Cheney should be afraid of being tried as a war criminal. Last year a complaint was filed in International Criminal Court (I.C.C.) against George W. Bush, Richard Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George Tenet, Condi Rice, and Alberto Gonzales over the practice of extraordinary rendition. The complaint requested an investigation into the above mentioned Bush administration officials.
The reason why the Obama administration won’t prosecute the previous administration for war crimes is that it would be an expansion of executive power that would set a dangerous precedent. If Obama prosecutes Bush, then a future president would also have the power carry out the same kinds of prosecutions against previous administrations.
The Congress and the President will shift radically toward expanding the size and scope of the Federal Government. This will satisfy both the liberals and the conservatives.TRUE (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-11/news/29984054_1_federal-president-obama-debt)
As you can see, from 2000 to 2008, under President Bush, Federal spending rose by $1.3 trillion, from $1.9 trillion a year to $3.2 trillion a year.
From 2009 to 2011, meanwhile, under President Obama, federal spending has risen by $600 billion, from $3.2 trillion a year to $3.8 trillion a year.
Military and police powers will grow, satisfying the conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military adventurism overseas.TRUE
This is the most important of my predictions: Policy changes could prevent all of the previous predictions from occurring. Unfortunately, that will not occur. In due course, the Constitution will continue to be steadily undermined and the American Republic further weakened.TRUE
During the next decade, the American people will become poorer and less free, while they become more dependent on the government for economic security.TRUE
The war will prove to be divisive, with emotions and hatred growing between the various factions and special interests that drive our policies in the Middle East.TRUE
Agitation from more class warfare will succeed in dividing us domestically, and believe it or not, I expect lobbyists will thrive more than ever during the dangerous period of chaos.TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Wall_Street)
By their slogan We are the 99%, the protesters claim that the growing income and wealth inequality in the United States between the wealthiest 1% and the remaining 99% of the population is unfair. Specifically the protesters are against social and economic inequality, high unemployment, greed, corruption, and allege that many large corporations—particularly from the financial services sector—have gone unpunished for gross fraud, are parasitic and have undue influence on government. Following the Zuccotti Park protest, other similar protests and movements ensued around the United States and the world.
I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5 to 10 years. Let us hope and pray that I am wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased.
~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
Ron Paul's a prophet. For him to see all this coming in 2002 is pretty amazing, even his detractors should give some props. It's hard to even appreciate from our perspective how much most of these went against the conventional wisdom and expectations of the time he wrote them, and he was dead on about almost everything.
These predictions were made at a time when most of them probably seemed fairly unlikely according to the conventional wisdom of the time. Turns out they've almost all come true, and the others might be around the corner. I went through and did a little fact-checking on each one that might even be considered debatable and added some support for what I found.
Predictions (http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul29.html)
by Congressman Ron Paul, MD
April 26, 2002
Our government intervention in the economy and in the private affairs of citizens, and the internal affairs of foreign countries, leads to uncertainty and many unintended consequences. Here are some of the consequences about which we should be concerned.
I predict U.S. taxpayers will pay to rebuild Palestine, both the West Bank and the Gaza, as well as Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers paid to bomb these areas, so we will be expected to rebuild them. TRUE (http://endtheoccupation.org/article.php?id=3122)
Peace, of sorts, will come to the Middle East, but will be short-lived. There will be big promises of more U.S. money and weapons flowing to Israel and to Arab countries allied with the United States. TRUE
U.S. troops and others will be used to monitor the "peace." YET TO BE, BUT PLAUSIBLE (http://www.usmep.us/usmep/2010/05/01/peacekeeping-in-palestine/)
To garner the support of both of the key parties, therefore, it is more likely that the military component of any such international mission would need to be organized as a U.S.-led “coalition of the willing” or, perhaps more likely, by the NATO Alliance.
A plausible construct would thus be a NATO-led military component with a civilian-led parallel organization to handle political, governance and development matters.
In time, an oil boycott will be imposed, with oil prices soaring to historic highs. DEVELOPING (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-23/u-s-joins-eu-push-to-embargo-iran-oil-over-nuclear-effort.html)
The Obama administration and European governments are seeking help from Arab and Asian allies to reduce Iran’s oil revenue in the dispute over its nuclear program, while trying to avoid causing a surge in prices that may threaten the global economic recovery.
The most wide-ranging effort to date to target Iranian income, the strategy includes a push by France and Britain for an embargo as soon as next month on imports of Iranian oil by the 27 European Union countries.
Current Israeli-United States policies will solidify Arab Muslim nations in their efforts to avenge the humiliation of the Palestinians. That will include those Muslim nations that in the past have fought against each other. TRUE? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Freedom_Flotilla)
In this flotilla, over 600 activists were on board the Mavi Marmara alone. There were 663 passengers from 37 nations on board the flotilla.
Some of our moderate Arab allies will be overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_spring)
The U.N. will continue to condemn, through resolutions, Israeli-U.S. policies in the Middle East, and they will be ignored. TRUE (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/19/us-veto-israel-settlement)
The Obama administration wielded its first veto at the UN security council last night in a move to swipe down a resolution condemning Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory.
The US stood alone among the 15 members of the security council in failing to condemn the resumption of settlement building that has caused a serious rift between the Israeli government and the Palestinian authority and derailed attempts to kick-start the peace process.
Some European countries will clandestinely support the Muslim countries and their anti-Israel pursuits. TRUE (http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/secret-eu-paper-aims-to-tackle-israel-s-treatment-of-arab-minority-1.401678)
The European Union should consider Israel's treatment of its Arab population a "core issue, not second tier to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," according to a classified working paper produced by European embassies in Israel, parts of which were obtained by Haaretz.
China, ironically assisted by American aid, much more openly will sell to militant Muslims the weapons they want, and will align herself with the Arab nations. TRUE (http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/china-arab-friendship-cooperation-to-continue-chinese-mideast-envoy.html)
2011-08-29 (China Military News cited from Xinhua) -- The friendship and cooperation relations between China and the Arab world have the foundation and potential for further development in the long run despite temporary impact of the region's ongoing unrest, said Chinese special envoy to the Middle East Wu Sike here on Sunday.
The United States, with Tony Blair as head cheerleader, will attack Iraq without proper authority, and a major war, the largest since World War II, will result. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War)
Major moves will be made by China, India, Russia, and Pakistan in Central Asia to take advantage of the chaos for the purpose of grabbing land, resources, and strategic advantages sought after for years. TRUE (http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-china-seeks-profit-shuns-politics-afghanistan-120821129.html)
But the rich mineral reserves lying untapped in Afghanistan after decades of war are a tempting and potentially lucrative lure for resource-hungry China, whose companies have already shown an ability to operate profitably in hostile environments.
The Karzai government will fail, and U.S. military presence will end in Afghanistan. YET TO BE (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15213999)
President Hamid Karzai has said his government and Nato have failed to provide Afghans with security, 10 years after the Taliban were overthrown.
Speaking to the BBC, Mr Karzai also accused Pakistan of supporting the insurgency, saying sanctuaries there still needed to be tackled.
He vowed to step down in 2014 and said he was working on the succession.
His comments come as the ex-commander of coalition forces said Nato allies remain far from reaching their goals.
After a decade of fighting in Afghanistan, retired Army General Stanley McChrystal estimated that the coalition was "a little better than" half way to achieving its military ambitions, adding that the US began the war with a "frighteningly simplistic" view.
An international dollar crisis will dramatically boost interest rates in the United States. DEBATABLE (http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/99488.pdf)
The dollar’s value in international exchange has been falling since early 2002.Over this five year span, the currency, on a real trade weighted basis, is down about 29%. For most of this time the dollar’s fall was moderately paced at about 3.0% to 4.0% annually. Recently, however, the slide has accelerated, falling nearly 10% between January and December of 2007. An acceleration of the depreciation brings the periodic concern of an impending dollar crisis to the fore. There is no precise demarcation of when a falling dollar moves from being an orderly decline to being a crisis. Most likely it would be a situation where the dollar falls, perhaps 15% to 20% annually for several years, and sends a significant negative shock to the U.S. and the global economies. This crisis may not be an inevitable outcome, but one that likely presents considerable risk to the economy.
Price inflation, with a major economic downturn, will decimate U.S. Federal Government finances, with exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-2000s_financial_crisis)
Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate, with massive credit expansion, which will make the dollar crisis worse. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as money. TRUE (http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3)
The first top-to-bottom audit of the Federal Reserve uncovered eye-popping new details about how the U.S. provided a whopping $16 trillion in secret loans to bail out American and foreign banks and businesses during the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Erosion of civil liberties here at home will continue as our government responds to political fear in dealing with the terrorist threat by making generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act. TRUE (http://politics.salon.com/2011/12/16/three_myths_about_the_detention_bill/singleton/)
...this bill codifies the power of indefinite detention. It expressly empowers the President — with regard to anyone accused of the acts in section (b) – to detain them “without trial until the end of the hostilities.”
The draft will be reinstated, causing domestic turmoil and resentment. FALSE
Many American military personnel and civilians will be killed in the coming conflict. TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war)
War on Terror: Afghanistan and Iraq Wars total 2001–present
Dead: 6,580/Wounded: 41,936/Missing: 3
The leaders of whichever side loses the war will be hauled into and tried before the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The United States will not officially lose the war, but neither will we win. Our military and political leaders will not be tried by the International Criminal Court. TRUE (http://www.politicususa.com/en/dick-cheney-war-criminal)
Cheney should be afraid of being tried as a war criminal. Last year a complaint was filed in International Criminal Court (I.C.C.) against George W. Bush, Richard Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George Tenet, Condi Rice, and Alberto Gonzales over the practice of extraordinary rendition. The complaint requested an investigation into the above mentioned Bush administration officials.
The reason why the Obama administration won’t prosecute the previous administration for war crimes is that it would be an expansion of executive power that would set a dangerous precedent. If Obama prosecutes Bush, then a future president would also have the power carry out the same kinds of prosecutions against previous administrations.
The Congress and the President will shift radically toward expanding the size and scope of the Federal Government. This will satisfy both the liberals and the conservatives.TRUE (http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-07-11/news/29984054_1_federal-president-obama-debt)
As you can see, from 2000 to 2008, under President Bush, Federal spending rose by $1.3 trillion, from $1.9 trillion a year to $3.2 trillion a year.
From 2009 to 2011, meanwhile, under President Obama, federal spending has risen by $600 billion, from $3.2 trillion a year to $3.8 trillion a year.
Military and police powers will grow, satisfying the conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military adventurism overseas.TRUE
This is the most important of my predictions: Policy changes could prevent all of the previous predictions from occurring. Unfortunately, that will not occur. In due course, the Constitution will continue to be steadily undermined and the American Republic further weakened.TRUE
During the next decade, the American people will become poorer and less free, while they become more dependent on the government for economic security.TRUE
The war will prove to be divisive, with emotions and hatred growing between the various factions and special interests that drive our policies in the Middle East.TRUE
Agitation from more class warfare will succeed in dividing us domestically, and believe it or not, I expect lobbyists will thrive more than ever during the dangerous period of chaos.TRUE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Wall_Street)
By their slogan We are the 99%, the protesters claim that the growing income and wealth inequality in the United States between the wealthiest 1% and the remaining 99% of the population is unfair. Specifically the protesters are against social and economic inequality, high unemployment, greed, corruption, and allege that many large corporations—particularly from the financial services sector—have gone unpunished for gross fraud, are parasitic and have undue influence on government. Following the Zuccotti Park protest, other similar protests and movements ensued around the United States and the world.
I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5 to 10 years. Let us hope and pray that I am wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased.
~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*
Ron Paul's a prophet. For him to see all this coming in 2002 is pretty amazing, even his detractors should give some props. It's hard to even appreciate from our perspective how much most of these went against the conventional wisdom and expectations of the time he wrote them, and he was dead on about almost everything.